Category Archives: S&P

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Reversal of ‘Retail’

September 7, 2025 By in Financial Sector, HOOD, HOOD-25-06, IBKR, Positions, Retail Investor, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SPY

Canary in The Coal Mine?

Friday’s downside action hit retail brokerages hard:

Schwab (SCHW) down -5.72%

Interactive Brokers (IBKR) down -6.41%

Interestingly, Robinhood, poster-boy for the novice ‘investor’, was whacked early in the session but recovered, closing lower by only -1.61%.

Adding to that, is the table below.

Financial Services, Capital Markets

This is part of the Finacial Services sector, showing major brokerage firm’s trading last Friday.

The upside in after-hours for HOOD, was the announcement it’s being included in the S&P 500.

If you have been in this game long enough, ‘last gasp’ indications like this, are typically contrary indicators (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P reached its all-time high on Friday

Watch to see what happens next.

Does HOOD hold the upside (starting tonight), and move higher, or does it start slipping away.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 31, 2025 By in David Weis, Gold & Silver, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

All Quiet, on Labor Day Weekend

Gold, silver, and the S&P are essentially unchanged (as of 6:44 p.m., EST).

Although it appears to be a quiet weekend, we should at least take note of the terminating wedge pattern in the S&P.

The S&P is probably the most computer controlled, most manipulated, most algorithmed (if that’s a word) market in the world.

From a personal standpoint, I do not trade it and have not for over 15-years.

There are better ways to engage and not volunteer oneself to get whacked every day by a mass of computer algorithms (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’ll look at it anyway. 🙂

S&P 500, SPY, Daily (segment)

We’re oscillating into a wedge pattern. A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether it be up or down.

With the Nvidia earnings release out of the way, the tone of the overall market may have changed.

We’ll see if that’s true in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

July 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, ESU25, Gold & Silver, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Buy The Rumor …

Will the coming week, be:

Sell, the news?

The S&P opened slightly lower, and is holding steady, unchanged.

Gold is unchanged, as well.

We’re ninety minutes into the session, relative calm.

There is one market nuance to consider. Most, if not nearly all who read what is next, may take no notice or disregard.

That’s your choice.

However, the S&P futures ESU25, posted a high at the last regular session, of 6333.25.

Seems like it might just be an oddity (easily surpassed); that is, until one considers the same index, posted a bottom of 666.67, at the 2009, low.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s … ‘Axis of Six’

March 27, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI 1 Comment

A Number Recurring Trough Time

You’ll have to judge for yourself if the chart with closing numbers and axis line, are of importance.

As a reminder, let’s not forget where the S&P bottomed, in 2009.

‘The S&P hit a low of 666, intraday’

With that, this update will be brief.

Biotech Sector Index, SPBIO, Daily Close

We’re using the actual index (SPBIO) and not the XBI, ETF, typically traded as a proxy.

After hours (as of 6:53 p.m., EST) has the ETF, XBI, trading unchanged to slightly lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279