Barring any new highs in the S&P, which seems less and less likely, the market has bookended two historic extremes.
September 3rd, 1929, was the peak back then; September 2nd, 2021, is the peak now.
This site has said many times, if we’re doing our job right, whenever the big reversal comes, we’ll already be in position (not advice, not a recommendation).
So, far that has proven to be correct; having gone short via DRV and TZA during the past week.
This down move is still very young. It’s almost imperceptible and could somehow be negated.
However, with each passing day when there’s no attempt or unsuccessful attempts at new highs, downside probability continues to build.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Empirical data gathered over the years has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week.
Will that apply this time around?
At least three things will happen on Tuesday, September 7th.
‘Relief assistance‘ runs out. It will be a Fibonacci 13-days from the S&P August 19th low. Tuesday the 7th, is the first market open following a holiday:
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.
While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.
Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.
At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.
The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.
Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):
Pulling out and labeling the wedge:
One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.
So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.
Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.
Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.
What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.
It never happened.
Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.
The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).
As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.
Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day
The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.
One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).
Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.
One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.
SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.
Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.
Positions:
Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.
Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A pull-back to the hourly low (434.07), gives additional confirmation to the nascent reversal.
In the biotech sector, SPBIO is currently pulling away from the 38% retrace discussed yesterday (LABD higher).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.
No more high prices.
Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.
One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.
The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.
To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’
To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.
Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.
Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.
Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).
SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:
The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):
Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:
Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.
Positioning:
It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).
That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.
Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.
Summary:
Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.
Anyone still want to hold long the market?
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Inverse biotech, LABD above, is confirming a pivot.
The magenta arrows show contact points morphing into a pivot that has two more contacts.
The new trendline was copied, then pasted to the far left of the chart.
It’s clear the new (pivot) trend is identical to the one created when LABD bottomed out this past February.
While the overall markets (S&P, Dow, COMPX) are still showing green, biotech looks like it has started the next leg down.
The original short position via LABD, has remained intact (not advice, not a recommendation) and has been increased five times (including today) since the beginning of this month.
In our view, biotech’s signaling the potential for a very dangerous situation.
Biotech’s headed down and we’re already short; not advice, not a recommendation..
As Livermore said a hundred years ago, ‘surprises tend to happen in the direction of trend.’
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This morning’s gap lower in SPBIO (LABD higher) was fully expected.
Expected as well, is the retrace in progress as of this post.
Today, is Fibonacci Day 8 from the LABD, pivot low of June 28th.
Biotech (SPBIO) has posted a fantastic time sequence on the daily as well as the weekly.
The gap-lower open in the S&P (more so for SOXX) has everyone sharpening their pencils; wondering, if ‘this is it?’.
It could be.
However, with attention now focused on potential downside, the clean Fibonacci sequences are likely to morph into chaotic movement.
The time for low-risk short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation) in this sector may be coming to an end.
Looking at inverse LABD, and using the Fibonacci retrace tool, it’s likely price action will retrace to at least the 38%, level.
At this point, it’s already close:
The inverse biotech LABD, 15-minute chart (above) shows we’re near the 38%, level.
After today, the expectation is for price action to become SPBIO downside chaotic … long enough to frustrate the late-comers to the sector.
After that, and however long that is, price action may once again become orderly.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
At this point, especially after witnessing the ‘lock-step’ positioning of major corporations over the past year, one thing is obvious:
They’re all operating in concert.
The coordinated message is that everything’s getting back on track. No need to worry.
See how ‘normal’ things are? Big companies are even ‘planning’ for the future. Stay calm and take no (preparatory) action.
Indian Summer:
The reality is, just as this link suggests, we’re in an Indian Summer. That is, we’re between two extremes.
The past year can be viewed as the summer heat. Then, we’ve just had a break (advent of fall/winter) with restrictions being lifted … but soon the figurative and literal winter will come.
Think that’s a bit much? Well, let’s just take a look at one item.
The video in the link above, mentions the need for ‘body bags’; that we’ll run out … sounds insane.
The long term, Quarterly chart shows the extent of the technical damage.
The 80% drop could be the beginning of a multi year (maybe decades long) decline.
If it was a crash (like lumber futures), it will have the typical crash-like structure.
That is: An initial swift, decisive decline; followed by retracement which then rolls over into a sustained and long term move lower.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500, is hovering at its all-time-highs.
Not only has UAL not made a new all time high (posted way back in December of 2018), the weekly chart shows it’s formed a terminating wedge.
At this point, it’s ‘rolling out’ of that wedge indicating sell or sell short; Not advice, not a recommendation.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 