Category Archives: S&P

… “Like everybody else … “

October 4, 2021 By in S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Uneducated Economist

Early Session

Or … ‘How To Lose Your Shirt’

If you’re reading this, consider yourself already separated or in the process of separating from the crowd.

At time stamp 5:15, in this from Uneducated Economist, there’s a mind-blowing statement from one of his followers.

UE is posting his thoughts on inflation. That is, there isn’t any … just like what this site proposes.

The commenter asked ‘Why don’t you see it just like everybody else does?’

It’s incredible but very telling on the collective mindset of those who are (or allow themselves to be) easily manipulated.

High School Correlation:

It’s not much different than High School (what a joke that was).

The popular kids seeming to have it all while the nerds, the geeks, and the weirdos were all left out … or bullied.

However, the raw edge of real life is not High School. That’s where the opportunity is for those in the very small minority.

Everybody has an equal chance to grow up.

After (years ago) going to my 10-year High School reunion, I realized the vast majority never grow or challenge themselves in any way.

I could see during the event, more than a few were already alcoholics. Deadening the pain of their cowardice.

As it turned out, I realized that ‘popularity’ is a prison. Locking up the individual in a life of fear (of becoming unpopular) and the associated mediocrity that results.

How does that anecdote relate to the problem at hand … the markets?

S&P Review:

It’s early in the session and the S&P (SPY), is trading lower.

The daily chart shows possible completion of the H&S pattern discussed previously.

The location of the report “The Plug Has Been Pulled” is also provided for reference.

At the time, it was uncertain and certainly unpopular to suggest the (potential) all time high was in.

So, we’ll see if the SPY, heads lower to start bouncing around the neckline … providing more confirmation of a significant reversal.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Is The ‘Bounce’, Over?

September 28, 2021 By in Biotech, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Early Session

S&P Bullish … Or Bearish?

This is how the S&P (SPY) looked before the open.

The blue lines show a small wedge pattern. Under bullish conditions, price action continues higher into a measured move; somewhere around SPY 449 – 450.

What we got at the open, is below:

The SPY opened lower and so far, has not continued its upward momentum.

It may be nothing; or it may signal the Right Shoulder of the Head & Shoulders, is complete.

As always, anything can happen. SPY may be just gathering steam for an attempt at new daily highs.

However, the action in biotech indicates the bears are moving into the markets; behind the scenes and slowly at first.

Biotech, SPBIO:

Biotech has opened lower (LABD higher).

Yesterday’s price action was entirely consistent with the ‘alternation’ discussed in that update.

For Example:

There was no (immediate) downward test from the September 17th low … and this time, the September 23rd low, there was:

We can see, after the open, price action for LABD is pushing higher (lower for SPBIO):

If we get a new daily high for LABD (above yesterday’s 19.62), it signifies the lower testing action is likely complete; the bears are taking control of biotech.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P, Retrace … And Then?

September 25, 2021 By in DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 2 Comments

S&P 500 (SPY) At 61.8%, Retrace

Actually, all three of the major indices, the S&P, The Dow, the NASDAQ have each retraced to (at or near) a Fibonacci 61.8%, level.

The daily SPY is shown above.

Taking away the Fibonacci retrace levels, then adding notations gives us the following:

It appears we could be at the right side of a Head & Shoulders top.

Price action rolling over from here, then bouncing around the neckline (before breakdown) would let us know, we’re in a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plug has been Pulled

September 14, 2021 By in 1929, DRV, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, TZA 1 Comment

Mid Session

92-Years Almost To The Day

Barring any new highs in the S&P, which seems less and less likely, the market has bookended two historic extremes.

September 3rd, 1929, was the peak back then; September 2nd, 2021, is the peak now.

This site has said many times, if we’re doing our job right, whenever the big reversal comes, we’ll already be in position (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, far that has proven to be correct; having gone short via DRV and TZA during the past week.

This down move is still very young. It’s almost imperceptible and could somehow be negated.

However, with each passing day when there’s no attempt or unsuccessful attempts at new highs, downside probability continues to build.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Top, September 7th?

August 23, 2021 By in 1929, Dow 30, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

The Day After Labor Day, 1929

The Tuesday after Labor Day 1929, was the the Dow high before the crash.

Empirical data gathered over the years has shown markets tend to reverse just before, during, or just after a holiday week.

Will that apply this time around?

At least three things will happen on Tuesday, September 7th.

‘Relief assistance‘ runs out. It will be a Fibonacci 13-days from the S&P August 19th low. Tuesday the 7th, is the first market open following a holiday:

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Russell … Rolling Over

August 14, 2021 By in Biotech, Dow 30, Holiday Turns, IWM, IYR, LABD, Oil, QQQ, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, USO, Van Metre

Bearish Wedge Poised To Break Down

The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.

While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.

Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.

At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.

The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.

Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):

Pulling out and labeling the wedge:

One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.

So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.

Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.

Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.

What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.

It never happened.

Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.

The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).

As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.

Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day

The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Summary

August 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, IBB, IWM, IYM, LABD, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY

Dow, S&P, Russell … all outside down

Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.

One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).

Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.

One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.

SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.

Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.

Positions:

Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.

Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

S&P 500, Head & Shoulders Top?

July 22, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

11:40 a.m., EST

Potential Head & Shoulders

The hourly chart above shows the potential.

A pull-back to the hourly low (434.07), gives additional confirmation to the nascent reversal.

In the biotech sector, SPBIO is currently pulling away from the 38% retrace discussed yesterday (LABD higher).

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Read My Lips …’

July 16, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Bonds, GOLD, IBB, LABD, S&P, S&P 500, SPY, Van Metre, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

3:21 p.m., EST

No More High Prices

This article, just out from ZeroHedge, says ‘consumers’ are in a revolt.

No more high prices.

Buying plans for the major items, housing, auto, appliances has declined dramatically.

One chart, linked here, shows consumer complaints about high prices are the most since the data started … 1961.

The reality is the retail consumer has come to the end of the rope.

To loosely quote Von Mises; ‘If you don’t voluntarily get your spending under control … the market will do it for you.’

To quote another financial source, Steven Van Metre; he has discussed for months, that high prices will be rejected. The economy will contract and bond prices will rise.

Bonds have indeed gone up in anticipation of contraction; or forecasting an outright collapse.

Throw into the mix that we’re going to have some kind of ‘fatality event’ this coming winter; for sure, there won’t be much demand for high priced items … just from the contraction of the population itself.

Which brings us to biotech (SPBIO).

SPBIO (LABD) Analysis:

The unmarked chart of inverse fund LABD is first (just to give perspective):

Next we’ll show that LABD has or is testing support and at the same time, confirming a trendline:

Biotech is the downside leader … sometimes tag-teaming with gold but for the most part it’s biotech.

Positioning:

It’s no secret I have positioned my firm short this sector in a big way since April of this year (not advice, not a recommendation).

That position has been adjusted over the months but has been steadily increased since the intermediate low on June 28th.

Since that low, the position has been increased six times (including yesterday) and may also be done so today.

Summary:

Once again, we’re heading into the weekend. The S&P (SPY) has just printed ‘out-side-down’.

Anyone still want to hold long the market?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Building The Case For Collapse

July 14, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Dow 30, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO

2:46 p.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO, Down

Inverse LABD, Up

Inverse biotech, LABD above, is confirming a pivot.

The magenta arrows show contact points morphing into a pivot that has two more contacts.

The new trendline was copied, then pasted to the far left of the chart.

It’s clear the new (pivot) trend is identical to the one created when LABD bottomed out this past February.

While the overall markets (S&P, Dow, COMPX) are still showing green, biotech looks like it has started the next leg down.

The original short position via LABD, has remained intact (not advice, not a recommendation) and has been increased five times (including today) since the beginning of this month.

In our view, biotech’s signaling the potential for a very dangerous situation.

Biotech’s headed down and we’re already short; not advice, not a recommendation..

As Livermore said a hundred years ago, ‘surprises tend to happen in the direction of trend.’

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.