Category Archives: SPBIO

Making (position) Adjustments

August 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DAL, DAL-25-03, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 4 Comments

SOXX Closed, DAL Closed XBI, Open

What we’re looking for from a short-side perspective, is ‘ease-of-movement’, downward.

Today, only one sector that’s currently being followed exhibited downside ease: Biotech, XBI.

To recap the situation with XBI, were in Wyckoff up-thrust position, first discussed here, then here and here.

Positioning

As stated in the header, SOXX-25-12, DAL-25-03, have been closed.

Biotech (short) XBI-25-03, opened with a stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX, Unravel?

August 22, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 1987, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, Richie Naso, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-02 3 Comments

Right Out of Naso’s Playbook

‘Think like a criminal’, is one piece of advice from trading legend Richie Naso.

He also describes the algorithms as not caring about profit or loss, but ‘liquidity’ and ‘volatility’.

This morning’s session had plenty of both.

Looking at SOXX price action, launching higher on the Fed speech, it’s clear what the algorithms were attempting.

That is, hit the stops hiding at ‘technical areas’, as Naso calls them.

Semiconductors SOXX, Hourly

Price action went to where stops were hiding or where the inexperienced traders panicked.

Under such conditions, what’s the appropriate action?

Sell, or sell short (not advice, not a recommendation).

From this site’s perspective that’s exactly what happened.

Currently short the SOXX, as trade SOXX-25-12, with the stop at (or to be) the session high.

Which One to Pick?

As the last update said, the stop on biotech XBI-25-02, was at the August 18th high. Obviously that position was stopped out.

The question is, why not re-enter again short?

The answer: XBI made new daily highs where the SOXX did not. SOXX did not print above its high set on August 14th.

Therefore, at this juncture, SOXX is posting more relative weakness than XBI.

The market itself directs the trading action.

Revisiting August 1987

One last thought: August 25th, 1987, was the date of the all-time highs back then. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Closes The Gap

August 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI, XBI-25-02 2 Comments

Now, What?

Today’s higher action in XBI, closed the gap opened on the 19th.

Technically speaking, for short trade, XBI-25-02, the original stop has not been moved (still at the 8/18th, high).

The expectation from this site’s perspective, we’re in an up-thrust condition that may ultimately resolve itself downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’re about to find out.

Bitoech XBI, Daily Close

At this juncture, downward thrust energy (Force Index) is larger than upward.

After hours, has the XBI, trading slightly higher.

So, we’re at The Danger Point®, where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tomorrow is Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the August 18th, high. There could be a slight opening ‘pop’, then reversal.

If not, then time to exit (not advice, not a recommendiaotn).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech …

August 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-02

Nascent Reversal

Long or short, this is the spot where anything can happen.

Friday’s action in XBI, made it Fibonacci 89 Days, from the April 9th, lows.

Today printed higher, reversed (slightly), closing lower, making this Fibonacci Week 21 (-1) from the April lows.

Trading Coach … Livermore

Getting back to trading insights from Livermore (last update), he stresses the adage, ‘If it meets requirements, then execute’.

At this point that’s the case for biotech, XBI.

Biotech Short (again)

We’re in Up-Thrust position (above resistance) have met a Fibonacci count, then printed a reversal bar; the trading action is/was to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: XBI-25-02, stop in the vicinity of today’s high (not advice, not are recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech in (short) Range

August 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-01

Pushes Past Resistance

Will biotech XBI, be ‘picked-off’ by the shorts?

Three months ago, was this post; identifying a potential area for reversal.

Looking for the set-up, a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’, more commonly known as false breakout.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After waiting, watching price action on a daily basis, almost getting sucked-in (short) too early, we now have a potential false breakout.

The penetration of resistance is not quite what was expected (meaning, a much larger thrust) and there may be more upside to come.

With that said, as can be seen from the side-bar, an initial short was opened today, XBI-25-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … On The Road Again

August 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Heading To The Set-Up

For a while, it looked like the last update’s conclusions were incorrect; that biotech (XBI), was not going to make it to up-thrust condition.

Then, we had Friday’s action, a textbook reversal bar.

So, now, it looks like there’s potential to get back on track to the target area (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Price action penetrated support, XBI is now in ‘spring position’.

After Friday’s downswing for the overall markets, there could be some upside bias early in the week (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech’s ‘Algorithmic’ Grind

July 30, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Richie Naso, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Day by Day, Inching Higher

It’s been over two months, since this post.

As the chart shows, biotech XBI, has made it all the way back, to the (blue line) resistance area.

However, it has not pushed above that area to create an up-thrust (reversal) condition.

Richie Naso, on Algorithms

Mr. Naso gives us a brief (technical) three-minute detail on why we should expect XBI, to penetrate the resistance area, link here.

He’s describing false moves (Wyckoff springs and up-thrusts) that trap the inexperienced and unsuspecting; it’s what markets do.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Notice the ‘choppy’ action.

It’s as if XBI, is looking for some kind of resolution, like maybe, a false breakout.

There’s no guarantee we’ll get above resistance. If it happens, there’s no guarantee it’s a false breakout.

However, as Naso says, the ‘probability’ of a false breakout, is (in his words) ‘above 80%’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First Semis, … Now, Biotech

July 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-05, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Next Set-Up

With the SOXX, reversal apparently at hand, (SOXX-25-05, active), we can continue to the next potential set-up.

As a reminder, this site’s focused on ‘strategy’ first; what’s likely to happen in a big way. Then, tactics, and after that, focus.

Moving on, we have this post from nearly two months ago; forecasting potential price action for biotech, XBI.

Clicking on the link above, reviewing the chart, let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

We’re close to the target and potential stops.

Pushing above resistance, does not guarantee a reversal.

It only means there’s likely to be instability; reading that price action, if/when it happens, will help determine the next likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Pre-Market Action & Stops

June 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRWD, CRWD-25-05, CVNA, CVNA-25-05, LABD, Positions, SPBIO, WMT, WMT-25-02, XBI

Watch The Highs

All three short positions discussed in last night’s update are trading lower in the pre-market session.

On a percentage basis, Carvana (CVNA) is down the most by about -1%.

At this point, the trading plan is simple; stops for all three are at, or near, the last session highs (not advice not a recommendation).

Moving on, we have an index that may be getting interesting, biotech XBI.

Back in late May, was this post.

Let’s see where we are now.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

A casual inspection of the chart shows price action ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci retrace levels.

For the past two weeks, XBI has drifted lower without decisive conviction.

It could continue its path to lower levels.

However, for a dynamic, sustained move, we need some type of catalyst, like taking out the (potential) stops at the location noted.

On the sidelines for now (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279