Category Archives: XBI

Brokerages Blow Up

August 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dollar, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, UUP, XBI 1 Comment

Positioned Ahead of Time

Developing a trading plan that accounts for broker outages, blow-ups, and platform lockups, was presented on this site, as early as December of 2020.

Back then, we had this:

“Built into that [system] approach is recognition there will be market outages, trading halts, communication interruptions and natural disasters.“

“The one thing that may separate this site from others, these (potential) events are taken into account.“

Fast forward to now.

Those events are not ‘potential’ anymore, but a reality.

Note: Before leaving that post, from December 2020, let’s not forget, the dollar reversal (and rally) discussed, is still going, nearly four years later!

That’s what’s meant by ‘a strategic, engineering perspective’ (see About).

Moving on to the topic at hand.

The last update showed potential trendlines in biotech, XBI.

As a result of today’s action, we’re revisiting the post with new information.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

As Dr. Elder said years ago, ‘trendlines are not made of glass’. Trendlines are more like a wire fence; the market can attempt a breakout that may ultimately get negated.

With the weekly XBI, that may be the case.

We’re about one hour before the close, only one day into the trading week; it’s pre-mature to say XBI, will finish the week (or even the day) inside the trendline shown above.

However, if we do end the week lower, it may be a serious bellwether; XBI could be in deep kimchi (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Stop … Drop … Trend

August 4, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-16, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Early Signals

It’s never too soon to look for a trend.

The daily chart of biotech XBI, may be showing us early signals of a trend as well as trading channel.

Back in the day, when being mentored by David Weis, he would typically start the session by putting up a chart on his computer (with me logged in remotely) and then ask:

“What do you see?”

More importantly, he did not ask, what I ‘thought’ or what the Fed was doing, or any other mainstream form of distraction. No, it was always “What do you see?”

So, we’ll do the same.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re moving in close with the (un-marked) 3-month, daily; what do you see?

Two things should be noticed almost instantly.

Frist: Heavy volume at the last session this past Friday.

Second: Price action (the close) is hanging in ‘mid-air’ with the next support level over two-points away, near 94.0.

Now, for the marked-up charts.

We’re using the ‘reverse’ trendline technique, presented in the Weis video to determine a potential right side trendline (black dashed line).

Next, we have the Up-Thrust on the daily which is also the right side of the ‘double top,’ shown on the weekly.

Taking both timeframes together, implies a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and the market could recover at the next session.

We’re below support (now resistance) and therefore, technically, in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

However, probabilities indicate we’ve had a downside pivot of some significance. That, along with heavy volume at Friday’s session would imply follow through at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Positioned For Trouble

August 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-16, SOXS, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

When The Tide Goes Out

We all know the quote attributed to Buffett:

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked’.

Or, to put it another way:

‘Everybody’s a genius in a bull market’.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to witness what method’s best suited to handle typical ‘price destruction’ behavior of a bear market (here and here) along with possible chaos in commodities.

That challenge also includes this site of course.

Bear Market Behavior

If we’re really entering a bear market, prices typically do not go straight down unless there’s an outright crash.

No …Bear markets are all about what’s called ‘price destruction’.

That is, price action whipsaws a near infinite number of times; getting into (a short) position for the downside or (long for) an upside squeeze is incredibly difficult.

The most recent example of this was the volatile whipsaws in 3X leveraged inverse fund, SOXS:

Swings over +/- 20%, back-to-back in days if not hours.

With that said, we’re looking at biotech XBI, to see if there’s a chance of it being ‘well-behaved’ during a decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

On a weekly close basis, we’ve had a double top.

Using the MACD, it shows momentum weakened on the leg up to the second top.

Watching price action (the tape) of XBI late Friday, near the close, it gave the appearance of short covering.

Upward spikes that appeared to be labored.

If that’s true, then a lower open at the next session would be the expectation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Taking Action

As the disclaimer states, this site is ‘not certified’ by the SEC and does not, cannot provide any advice.

What it can do, is infer the actions being taken.

With that said, this update shows the ‘category’ side bar with LABD-24-16, thus inferring a short position via LABD.

That’s the firm’s identifier used for spreadsheet tracking; the 16th biotech short via LABD, for the year.

Never Too Early, To Trend

In the next update, we’ll discuss how even in the early stages of (potential) XBI reversal, we may already have a trendline.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Squeeze’ That Didn’t

July 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-16, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

Biotech Refused To Play

During today’s Fed induced squeeze, one index was noticeably stubborn.

Biotech looked like it was going to play along.

However, as the regular session wrapped-up, biotech XBI, retraced, proceeding all the way down to close near its prior day’s close.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

The hourly chart shows the initial squeeze that didn’t.

The last hour had significant volume, indicating the potential for more downside at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Contrast performance of leveraged inverse semiconductors SOXS, at a massive -20.21%, loss on the day to leveraged inverse biotech LABD, at just -0.34%, loss for the day.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The ‘Clubhouse Turn’

July 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Testing Complete … ?

Is biotech (finally) coming around the Clubhouse turn?

Has it finished its two-months of (upward) testing and ready to reverse lower?

We’re about twenty-minutes before the open; pre-market action is posting a tight range (magenta arrow), shown on the inverted chart.

Biotech XBI, Daily (Inverted)

For the beginnings of a ‘confirmation’, we’ll need to see a new daily high (new low, non-inverted).

From a Wyckoff standpoint, note the net distance traveled has become shorter and shorter.

A potential reversal may be at hand (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN Collapse

June 29, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Natural Gas, SPBIO, Teucrium, UNG, Wyckoff, XBI

Another Nat-Gas Scenario?

The beginning of a bullish set-up?

The financial press says the wipeout in corn, is because of oversupply.

That, may or may not, be true.

Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.

Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day, link here.

From that post, was this:

“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market. Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “

So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.

Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.

The Same, But Not

On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.

Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.

Where’s The ‘Potato’?

So, where’s the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘?

It’s possible, mishaps could be on the upside instead of down. It worked last time; here and here.

That ‘event’ went straight across the most-dense areas of the corn belt.

All of which, brings us to the chart.

Teucrium CORN Fund, Weekly

We’re in spring position now (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.

The financial press article in the very first link (above) does have some useful information.

That is, ‘spec’ traders are adding to short positions.

‘Spec’ traders are the least informed.

It’s the ‘commercials’, professionals working the industry that are most informed.

Monitoring what they (the commercials) are doing is the potential key to the next likely direction for CORN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Neural Plasticity … Be Flexible

June 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-24-13, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Reviewing The Plan

From the outset, the premise for biotech XBI, was this:

We’re in a huge up-thrust, several years in the making (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a set-up that big, downside potential was projected to be just as big, link here.

Then came the hard part, validating the premise and getting into position.

Nural Plasticity

So, it’s been on again, off again; a total of seven short trades; LABD-24-06 – LABD-24-12, with an eighth, LABD-24-13 opened, as of today.

The entire (closed) series has been profitable.

However, during that time, assessment of (major) downside potential shifted from confidence to caution, and now back to confidence.

‘Sticking to one’s guns’, no matter what the market (the tape) is saying, is a sign of real trouble.

The market itself directed the entering/exiting.

With that, let’s move on.

The ‘New’ Paradigm

Reviewing the host of ‘experts’ in the press and YouTube alike, (except for UE), everybody has their reason on why nothing (bad) will happen until after the ‘election’.

The last go-round should have broken that paradigm completely; but no, we’re still hanging on.

The ‘new’ paradigm is probably, ‘no’ paradigm. 🙂

From a Wyckoff perspective, the financial press is to be ignored except for when data releases are scheduled.

What’s in the release is not important; it’s the time and date itself, warning of potential volatility.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted)

Once again, inverting the chart to show the short-side (LABD) potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The dashed blue lines, an extension of the support level shows we’re also in a potential spring set-up at one higher timeframe, the weekly; more background, link here.

Positioning

As noted above, a new short position was opened via LABD, during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typically, discussion of open trades within the trading community is (or should be) taboo. As Elder said years ago, there’s the real risk of ‘ego’ causing errors in discernment.

With that said, I might exit this trade at any time, without notice, without explanation.

Veteran traders will agree with that statement; when something’s ‘off’ with a trade (only known to them), it’s time to get out.

Nonetheless, a hard stop for today’s position would be yesterday’s LABD, low of 6.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna ‘Message’, Part II

June 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI

What A Difference, A Day Makes

Well, there you have it.

The potential upside from yesterday’s post has been negated … that quickly.

MRNA, has reversed and punched through support levels (as of 10:00 a.m., EST) and did it decisively.

That puts the biotech short back on the table (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Message’

June 25, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s Price Action Telling Us?

Is Moderna telling us to get ready for another round of ‘shenanigans’?

The last update showed how action was adhering nearly perfectly to Fibonacci levels.

The take-away; MRNA, most likely is headed lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, that was then.

We’re going back to the daily chart, looking at potential for higher action.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

As with the prior update, two Fibonacci projection tools are shown; standard retrace, and ‘a-b-c’ projection from November 2nd, 2023, lows.

We can see, price action’s at The Danger Point®, in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

Is this buoyancy and absorption of the sellers?

As Weis said (in his video), absorption is difficult to detect until it’s obvious.

If we’re headed to new highs, past the 23.6%, retrace, there’d have to be a ‘reason’ or (money making) ‘catalyst’ for such an event.

Something like this, perhaps?

If MRNA is gearing for a move higher, that explains buoyancy in the biotech sector as a whole, the refusal of XBI, to head decisively lower.

As stated earlier, XBI short position via LABD, noted as LABD-24-12, in prior updates has been closed (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Split Top … Part II

June 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

Reversal On ‘Week 89’ ?

The tape is saying ‘This could be it’.

No one knows if this is ‘The top’, or just ‘A top’, until it’s all over (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update for Nvidia, said we’re nearing Fibonacci Week 89 (from the October ’22, lows); look for evidence of a reversal.

With three-hours left in the session, NVDA is on track (along with the SOXX) to posting a weekly reversal bar.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The chart updated to show we’re at ‘Week 89’.

The fact (minus 3-hours) we’re getting a reversal bar on ‘Week 89’, is potential validation of the Fibonacci count.

The market itself is telling us where to look.

With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 2:07 p.m., EST

Housekeeping Note:

While under no obligation to discuss trades, nonetheless, for those following the biotech short (LABD-24-12), that trade has been exited (for now) with profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279