Category Archives: XOP

Overnight, Oil Spikes Higher

June 13, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XOP, XOP-25-01 1 Comment

Bull Market, or Not

Overnight, oil futures launched higher.

Selected news links, below:

Oil Could Hit $130 In “Worst Case Scenario”: JPMorgan, link here.

Images Emerge Of Tehran Destruction After Major Israeli ‘Preemptive Attack’; IRGC Chief Killed. link here

Crude propelled by Israeli attacks on Iran; ES -1.1%, DXY +0.8% – Newsquawk US Market Open, link here

Crude +8%, ES -1.5% after Israel conducts strikes on Iranian nuclear & military targets – Newsquawk Europe Market Open, link here.

Oil, Bull Market?

Even as this post is being created (8:54 a.m., EST), oil futures are backing off overnight highs.

It’s what happens next, that’s important.

If oil and related markets like XOP, can’t hold or surpass those highs, well then, we have our answer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Oil & Gas, XOP, Daily

In the pre-market session, XOP is trading just below the 61.8%, Fibonacci projection.

If the XOP wave is ‘corrective’, shown as ‘a-b-c’ above, that means it’s against the main trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Exxon Reversal

May 15, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOM, XOM-25-01, XOP

Picture Perfect

Exxon’s is one of the large-caps in the Oil & Gas sector ETF, XOP.

The potential for (downside) reversal in XOP, first presented here.

As part of the prep work to position short, the question was whether to short XOP, or one of the big caps.

As you can be seen, since XOM-25-01, is in the sidebar, we’ve gone short Exxon during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the chart shows, there was a small gap lower yesterday, presenting the risk that it would be filled before action continued lower.

That might still happen.

However, with XOM down 1.83 pts., in the pre-market (as of 9:12 a.m., EST), upside probabilities have lessened.

Exxon XOM, Daily

We have what appears to be, a picture-perfect Wyckoff up-thrust, and reversal.

If yesterday’s gap-lower open is not filled, then it’s a ‘breakaway’ gap, indicating (probability for) much lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 11, 2025 By in CLM25, GCM25, Gold & Silver, Oil, Oil & Gas, SIN25, XOP, ZeroHedge

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

Both gold (GCM25), and silver (SIN25), have opened lower and are currently (as of 7:35 p.m., EST) holding steady.

Oil (CLM25), is ever so slightly higher; that’s the sector we’ll focus on, in this update.

Starting with this post from last week.

That update had two target areas (the gaps) identified; so far, as the chart shows, we’re in range of the first target.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

XOP, is a 24/5 (EXTO Eligible) vehicle and is currently trading at 118.9, vs., Friday’s close at 118.84.

The chart shows action as of last Friday’s close.

Remember, we’re looking for something very specific, like this set-up in the Health Care Sector, link here.

Lastly, we have this just out on ZeroHedge. The economy is slowing (not advice, not a recommendation).

Website link is here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Health Care Reversal … Example

May 6, 2025 By in Federal Reserve, Health Care, Interest Rates, Oil, Oil & Gas, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03, XOP 3 Comments

Looking For The Oil Patch

The Healthcare Sector (XLV) has reversed hard to the downside.

The set-up: Blue line resistance, penetrated during a breakout, then failing.

That’s what we’re looking for in Oil Sector, XOP.

While we wait, XOP looks to be quite weak, and the breakout may never come.

Tomorrow, we have the Fed announcement. That might provide some XOP upside, however temporary (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Sector (short) Target

May 5, 2025 By in CLM25, Oil, Oil & Gas, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XOP 1 Comment

Looking For The Breakout … That Fails

At this juncture, oil futures are in a minor ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

The gap lower open discussed in last night’s update, has been closed (as expected).

What we’re looking for now (for potential XOP short), is a push higher in the futures (CLM25) to the 60 – 61 area.

Oil & Gas Sector ETF, XOP, Daily

At mid-session, XOP is trading right at resistance.

Note: Two gaps straddle the wide-high volume bar of April 3rd. As we know, wide, high-volume bars, tend to be tested.

That’s what we’re looking for.

An upside test of at least one of the gaps that fails; thus creating a Wyckoff up-thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 4, 2025 By in CLM25, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Oil, Oil & Gas, SLV, XOP Tags: 1 Comment

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.

Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.

Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Directed Action

The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.

At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.

Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.

That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Oil Patch (short)

May 3, 2025 By in Oil, Oil & Gas, XOP 2 Comments

Tricks of The Trade

During the ‘tariff’ meltdown, the oil patch XOP, took a hit right along with (nearly) everyone else.

Then, the markets began to recover. The oil sector … not so much.

When looking at that ‘recovery’ with respect to the highs of mid-June 2022, XOP, has only retraced Fibonacci 23.6%, located (approximately) just below the blue resistance line.

Oil & Gas Sector XOP, Weekly

Price action has yet to push significantly above the ‘short squeeze’ level, posted during the week of April 11th.

In fact, when compared to recovery action in other markets, this one is exceptionally weak (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next, we’ll look at the daily chart and identify possible up-coming targets for short positioning (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil Bounce … Part II

August 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Federal Reserve, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, IWM, Oil, Oil & Gas, Russell 2000, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-13, SOXX, TZA, TZA-24-01, USO, XOP

Is This It?

We’ve gone form “Not Happening” to this morning’s action; ‘maybe it’s happening?’

As was done with Oil & Gas exploration XOP, we’ll now take a look at the oil patch itself and proxy, USO.

Oil tracking Fund, USO, Close

“What do you see?”

Marking up the chart.

We either have the ‘tradable bounce‘, or a potential contact point for the right-side channel line (not advice, not a recommendation).

The Fed announcement is just out, essentially accommodating a rate cut in September.

There was talk of some ‘cooling’ in the market (Ya think?).

With that, demand for oil seems like it would take a hit putting it lightly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning.

The market itself is telling us where to go and what to do.

The important item for the day; what is the market not doing? Specifically, the Semiconductors, SOXX.

The SOXX, has not made a new (daily) high (at least, not yet) after the Fed’s announcement; it can even be seen as the ‘proverbial gut-check’, a la David Weis.

With that, all other positions have been closed save the short in the semiconductors via inverse fund SOXS (not advice, not a recommendation).

Danger Ahead

The ‘rate cut’ has yet to happen and September is a long way away.

It can’t be re-iterated enough how dangerous is this environment; prices stretched via a narrative that’s false (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Where’s The Bounce?

August 21, 2024 By in DRIP, DRIP-24-02, Great Depression 2.0, Oil, Oil & Gas, USO, XOP, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Not Happening

There’s no oil bounce.

Not happening (not yet anyway).

Instead, oil looks like it’s heading off a cliff.

Weren’t we supposed be forming some kind of ‘tradable bottom’ because the sellers were accumulating?

That kind of bottom-think may have worked under more ‘normal’ conditions.

However, it should be obvious to all (with some still clueless), we’re not in normal conditions.

Hedge funds dumping oil, giving a heads-up, demand collapse is either coming or is already here.

Great Depression 2.0

Presented many times on this site (click sidebar ‘Great Depression 2.0’, for a list of posts) that we’ve likely gone straight past ‘recession’, into depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that’s even remotely true, we should see demand collapse in heavy duty areas of the economy like trucking, right along with job implosions.

Oh, wait, here it is … and here it is, again. 🙂

Back to the oil patch. Let’s include exploration and production (XOP) posting lower as well.

Oil & Gas: Exploration, Production, XOP, Daily Close

The last position short XOP, via DRIP was stopped-out for a minimal -1.24%, loss.

Re-positioned via DRIP during yesterday’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled as DRIP-24-02.

The purpose of the prior channel notation is to show, XOP will at times exhibit channel (trending) behavior.

There’s only one right side (verified) contact on the latest channel, the magenta arrow.

However, the overnight market (10:57 p.m., EST) has oil futures continuing lower.

The expectation is for some follow through (downward) on the XOP, at the next session (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279