‘Bounce’ Fails … Now, What ?

April 27, 2022 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, S&P 500, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SPY, SRS, SRS-22-01 1 Comment

Get Right … Sit Tight

Yesterday’s upside failure (from Monday’s reversal) tells us it’s a very dangerous market environment.

Several YouTubers (here and here) and maybe more, the leaders anyway, have noted they’re providing good-faith analysis and potential tips, but that does not change the fact, ‘You’re on your own’.

The ‘rebound’ that Maverick discussed (second link, above) may have been on Monday and that’s all there was.

Absolutely nothing against him in any way.

If that was it for a bounce, we’re indeed in a very dangerous (to the downside) situation.

The S&P got itself into a Wyckoff Up-Thrust condition, noted here and shown on the daily chart below.

S&P 500 (SPY), Daily

It’s about midway through today’s session.

We can see SPY price action grinding its way down to support near the 410 – 415, level.

Up-Thrust, headed for ‘Spring’ ?

We already know from empirical observation that markets tend to go from spring to up-thrust.

Does it work the other way around … up-thrust to spring ?

From a personal standpoint, I do not have any data to show that behavior exists.

However, with SPY in its current position (near support) we may be about to see if there’s penetration and then attempts to move higher (i.e., in spring position).

The chart below shows current support.

There would need to be decisive penetration to set up the potential for any kind of sustained rebound.

The blue line is a significant support level.

The grey line just above, is also support, where price action is at the moment.

Penetration of either one sets up a spring.

Real Estate, IYR (Daily)

While the S&P fights it out at support, real estate, IYR is doing the same thing.

The previous post was looking for new highs in the sector.

At that time, it looked to be 50/50, odds of doing so.

Now, we’re right at the danger point.

It won’t take much for price action to confirm a spring or a break to lower levels.

It looks like we’ve already had an up-thrust which seems to point probability lower.

With the overall markets, the S&P at support now and deep oversold, points the opposite way, probability to the upside.

Summary

IYR had a shallow, 38% retrace during yesterday’s session before continuing lower and closing near the low of the day.

As that retrace was completing, a short position was opened via leveraged inverse SRS (SRS-22-01) and the stop set at yesterday’s IYR high of 109.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is completing, IYR price action’s laboring to move higher (SRS, lower).

We’ll know soon enough if we’re in a breakdown or a spring.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold To Rally ?

April 25, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST-22-04, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

In Position For Upside Test

As long as almost no-one catches on to the Fibonacci time correlations playing out in real time, they’ll continue to have validity.

First, some housekeeping.

The downside action in Junior Miners GDXJ, was a vicious move; from top to bottom (thus far) it dropped over – 17.5%, in just six trading days.

This type of collapse was not really expected as YouTube and ZeroHedge are still filled with the manic bulls.

The short position, JDST-22-04, launched higher as a result.

Taking advantage of the hysteria, that position was closed out today (not advice, not a recommendation).

The expectation is for some type of relief rally in gold and the miners.

Gain on the whole event, which included three entries and three exits was around +24.1%

Moving on to the chart.

Gold (GLD) Daily

We’re at Fibonacci Day 34 and have just slightly penetrated support (blue line).

That puts GLD, in Wyckoff Spring position … although the push below support was not really enough to expect a rally (if it occurs) to go very far.

Today’s action opened up a significant gap and it just so happens, the close of Friday’s bar (April 22nd) is right at 23.6%, retrace.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Tea Leaves of CORN

April 24, 2022 By in Corn, J.P. Sears, London Metal Exchange, Ming Jong Tey, NEM, Teucrium, Wyckoff

Wyckoff … ‘Voodoo Science’

That’s how one YouTuber described the Wyckoff method.

Well, judge for yourself.

The analysis in question is linked here and the video is here.

If you look at the video closely, the area called out as the ‘secondary test’ can also be identified as a ‘spring’ set-up.

Note how that spring goes straight into an up-thrust; the one being discussed at time stamp: 0:34.

Wyckoff analysis is both science and intuition.

The good part is discernment, the ability to intuitively perceive events, is a God-given gift.

By definition, no amount of Artificial Intelligence can fully replicate that ability.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the people J.P. Sears refers to at time stamp 3:26, won’t try.

So, let’s move on to the market at hand; corn and more specifically, Teucrium tracking fund CORN.

CORN, Weekly

From the week of the Derecho breakout to this past Friday’s close, is a Fibonacci 89-Weeks.

Friday’s weekly bar was also a reversal.

The week closed with the highest net negative volume since the week of October 15th, 2021.

Looking closer at the volume, we see the large spike during the week ended March 4th, followed by successive weeks of elevated volume.

There’s also a terminating wedge with a potential throw-over; similar to what’s happening in Newmont Mining (NEM).

This market appears to be ripe for chaos.

Hitting The Mainstream

Adding to the probability for some kind of ‘event’, the price of corn is hitting the mainstream.

Throw in some real or fake news on food processing plants and the pressure for government to ‘do something’ continues to build.

Summary

The opportunity to go long CORN was way back at the Derecho.

At this point, prices are elevated to the point where risk appears to be increasing … potentially leading to a momentary price spike downward (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, there’s likely to be chaos for several days as clearing firms either slow their payments, halt/cancel trades, or go bankrupt altogether … similar to what happened during the London Metal Exchange melt-down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate (IYR) To New Highs ?

April 23, 2022 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-22-01, GDXJ, ice-age-farmer, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

If The Bond Market Reverses

The previous bearish analysis was overwhelmed by the larger, upward trend.

Instead of continuing lower, real estate IYR, moved higher. It’s now at another inflection point.

The position in DRV (DRV-22-01) was exited at 32.66, when it was obvious the trade was going to fail.

Taking a hit like that gets one’s attention; there must be something else going on … something on a larger timeframe.

There’s nothing wrong, with being wrong.

However, there is something wrong with being wrong and staying wrong.

If we pull farther out to the longer, weekly timeframe, it looks like there’s danger ahead; possible new all-time highs and Wyckoff upthrust (potential reversal).

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

As with the Junior Miners, GDXJ, it looks like we have yet another Fibonacci time correlation.

During the financial crisis, IYR, posted its low the week of March 6th, 2009.

Thirteen years later, another major inflection point?

Shown below, is a terminating wedge that may have already completed a throw-over.

One probability suggesting new highs instead of a reversal at this point (which seems like even odds) is the repeating tendency of markets to go from ‘spring to up–thrust‘.

This site has presented over and again, it’s a common market behavior.

Getting closer-in on the weekly, the spring set-up is identified.

Now, comes the Fibonacci time correlation.

From the all-time highs, the market closed at the lows on Week 8. The print low came one week later.

Using that information and projecting forward, if this correlation is in effect, if it’s valid, we can expect an up-thrust high somewhere during the week of May 20th, to May 27th.

The Bond Connection

The economy is collapsing. The food supply is being destroyed. The consumer is tapped out and using credit to survive.

What on earth could be a catalyst to move real estate, the most illiquid market of all, to new highs?

Bring in the clowns … sorry, the financial press.

Word on the street is the bond market, may be in position to reverse higher.

No doubt, there’s a good technical reason for reversal, linked here.

It’s the financial press and their real estate narrative that will (may) be preposterous.

That is: If bonds (TLT) move higher, mortgage rates will come down, consumers will jump on the opportunity and therefore, she’s a witch !!!

Summary

We’ll see if IYR meets the price and Fibonacci time correlations for potential reversal.

Once there’s a reversal in this market, it tends to do so with a vengeance.

Rising rates have already cut off deals in the works. Prices are coming down and houses are on the market longer. The consumer is priced out.

The pig is already in the python … once that happens, this market sets up a dynamic of its own, a succession of lower prices and sales collapsing.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Same Then, Same Now … Gold

April 21, 2022 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-22-04, ZeroHedge

Common Characteristics

Every market has its own personality, its own characteristics.

After working the gold mining indices GDX, more specifically GDXJ, a repeating trendline tendency was observed in leveraged inverse, JDST.

That repeating market behavior, shown below.

Junior Miners, Leveraged Inverse, JDST

The un-marked daily chart, first

Repeating trendlines

The next several charts zoom-in on specific areas.

Set The Stop

And walk away …

As the tagline in this post shows with JDST-22-04, we’re already short the Junior Miners via JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).

The current stop, is set at yesterday’s low of 6.61.

Depending on price action today, that stop will be moved up to the recent low (presently @ JDST 6.855).

Summary

GDXJ, reversed at Fibonacci 55-Days, 13-Weeks from the January 28th, low.

As presented in this update, we’re also Fibonacci 89-Weeks (+1), peak-to-peak.

Time correlation coupled with price action, along with incessant financial press ‘gold standard‘ narrative, gives a near perfect backdrop for a significant downside reversal.

The trade may or may not work out … price action is the final arbiter. However, we’ve already shown the trend characteristic of the market.

A simple but effective way to manage the trade is to follow that trend, raise the stop accordingly and exit when stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Downside Reversal

April 20, 2022 By in Food Supply, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST-22-04 4 Comments

Wait … What?

A major gold (miner) reversal?

Is that possible?

The last update on the subject highlighted a multi-decade Fibonacci time correlation.

Going all the way back to the 2001 lows for gold, there’s a correlation of 21-years, 89-weeks and 55-days as it relates to the Junior Mining Index, GDXJ.

This past Monday, 55-Days from the January 28th, low, GDXJ, posted a reversal.

The chart below, is an updated version of the one presented on Thursday, the 14th.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

The bearish MACD has completed with a momentum tick to the downside. Price action reversed exactly at Fibonacci 55-Days.

Getting closer-in, the chart below shows we’re at minor support.

It’s early in today’s session about an hour after the open.

Price action’s already pushing down on the support level, posting a new daily low.

If GDXJ continues lower and decisively penetrates support, the expectation is for some kind of upward test in the next session(s).

For the Junior Gold Miners, GDXJ, we’re at the danger point.

Obvious stop levels for a short position would be yesterday’s high or Monday’s high (not advice not a recommendation).

Summary

With so many convinced gold and the miners must move higher as a result of ‘inflation’, a significant, sustained reversal would be completely unexpected.

Of course, what’s not being discussed (except in alternate media) is the intentional destruction of the food supply and the supply chain.

That’s at least a significant contributor to the rising prices.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … By The Numbers

April 17, 2022 By in David Weis, DRV, DRV-22-01, IYR, Real Estate, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Day By Day Look, At Potential Reversal

Using a method presented by the late David Weis in his training video (still available, linked here), we’re going to look at specific days on the daily chart of IYR, shown below.

In brief, the method looks at price action (and volume) on specific days, then formulates an assessment using Wyckoff analysis, on next move probability.

Real Estate, IYR, Daily

This is how it looks with no markup. Force Index, shown in the lower panel.

We’re going to address each numbered bar of the price action shown.

No. 1

Price action penetrates resistance (blue line) on moderate volume and posts a sharp upward spike on Force Index.

Such action can be labeled as a breakout or up-thrust (potential reversal) position.

No. 2

After hovering and then testing the breakout resistance/support level, price action attempts to pull away and move higher … but it’s unable to close higher and volume contracts.

Force Index as a result, posts a significantly lower peak than three trading sessions, prior.

This is the first sign of trouble to the upside.

No. 3

Three sessions later, IYR attempts to move higher again.

This time it’s able to close higher but volume contracts again and posts a lower Force Index.

This is the second sign of trouble to the upside.

No. 4

Five sessions later after IYR comes back down to resistance/support there’s another attempt to move higher.

This time, the range has narrowed while volume increases and subsequently posts yet another lower peak on Force Index.

Narrow, labored upside action with increasing volume suggests the market’s under distribution.

Summary

The day before price action bar No 4., this post was created to indicate real estate IYR, may be in position for downside reversal.

On the day labeled No. 4, a short position was opened via leveraged inverse fund DRV as DRV-22-01, with current stop at last Thursday’s DRV low of 32.64 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Heading Into Monday

The futures market is now about one hour into the Sunday night session.

The S&P is trading down 15 – 16 points or about – 0.36%.

Let’s see if that negative bias carries over to the Monday open.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn Train Wreck, Continues

April 16, 2022 By in Activist Post, Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Teucrium, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 4 Comments

One Way Or Another …

The food supply is, and is going to be destroyed; one way or another.

The latest in this ‘planned’ series of events, can be found here and here.

More information on the first link, is here. The initial paragraph says it all.

That second link calls the news a ‘Black Swan’ event.

Really?

It’s been known for years and reported by those who are brave (moving forward despite ridicule, threats, bank account closures), and who had insight, times like these were coming.

As a result, (i.e., since the Derecho) the commodities, specifically corn, have risen dramatically.

Teucrium tracking fund, CORN, Weekly

Looking and the chart, several items of note.

First: Volume picked up markedly in the fund, before the Derecho of 2020. Almost like someone knew something was about to happen … which it did.

Wyckoff said it best a century ago … those in the know, will have their actions show up on the tape.

Second: We’re currently in Fibonacci Month 21, since the Derecho. Does that mean we’ll have another market event?

Let’s see how the fertilizer news affects the futures market at the next open.

However, more specifically as posted in this update, we’re looking for some type of ‘administration’ announcement that temporally crashes the price of corn.

Third: Getting back to the chart of CORN, the right side is showing signs of potential distribution.

We’ve had the largest weekly volume, ever, during the week of March 4th.

After that, volume has remained elevated … a possible changing of hands and distribution.

Summary

Markets like to test wide high-volume print areas. There’s always a potential for that type of test in any market.

For CORN above, the high-volume area is around 23.00 – 23.50; an approximate drop of -21%, from current levels.

If we get some type of ‘export restriction’ announcement, a (temporary) 20-plus percent drop in CORN, is not unreasonable.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold & Silver, Timeline’s End ?

April 15, 2022 By in 1929, Activist Post, China, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Texas Freeze, ZeroHedge 11 Comments

Government, Is Always Last

The laws enacted by the Government to prevent the crash of 1929, were passed in 1934.

So, now we have at least two states (here and here) eliminating sales tax on the purchase of gold and silver.

Where were they way back in 2001, as the metals were bottoming?

Interestingly (then again, not) it’s a Fibonacci 21-years, nearly to the day, from that 2001 bottom.

That’s not the only Fibonacci correlation being observed.

Let’s take a look at Junior Miners GDXJ, and see if it too, has a Fibonacci event.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

We’re just one week short of Fibonacci 13-Weeks, from the late January 2022, bottom.

One extra week is well within margin of error when considering the 89-Week timeframe as shown.

But wait, there’s more.

Looking at the daily chart, not only is there a bearish MACD divergence, we’re also just one day shy before it’s a Fibonacci 55-Days, from the 1/28/22, bottom.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Can it all line up this perfectly?

Well, it can if no one is watching; that’s where the crowd and the government come in.

Summary

It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody.

Even though time and again, we have clues that opportunity for precious metals may come later not sooner (not advice, not a recommendation).

The lockdowns in Shanghai with subsequent starvation and bartering (here and here), show under such conditions, precious metals are nowhere on the list.

Closer to home, the Texas Freeze of 2021, exposed that (lack of metals demand) as well.

Housing prices are starting to ease-off as well as prices for used cars.

Gold (GLD) may have reached its peak, March 8th, this year. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds Down … Real Estate, Next ?

April 13, 2022 By in Bonds, David Weis, DRV, DRV-22-01, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, SRS, TLT, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Visions of 2008 ?

The Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart of IYR, could mean reversal ahead.

Price action’s been attempting to move higher over the past twelve trading days.

‘Attempting’, because it’s not making any significant net progress.

Essentially, we’ve got what’s called ‘evidence of a struggle’ where the bulls may be exhausting themselves.

The last update on bonds (TLT), said they’re at the danger point where an upside reversal was possible.

That update also said:

“At this juncture, there’s either a reversal and much higher levels or down, with rates higher; in turn, leading to the subsequent collapse of real-estate, a-la 2007 – 2008.“

Since then, bonds are lower, rates higher. Housing affordability has collapsed.

Real Estate, IYR, Weekly

At this point it’s a clear H&S, pattern.

The daily chart shows IYR, oscillating around an axis, support/resistance line; struggling to move higher (in up-thrust condition) with no real progress.

As with bonds in the April 3rd, update, we’re at the danger point with IYR.

A decisive move below the axis (blue) line would indicate the bulls may be exhausted.

Because price action’s been in this range for over two weeks, lends support to the possibility any breakdown (or breakout higher), may be a sustained, directional move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279