Trouble for Moderna was spotted a while back and discussed in this post … along with a prediction that class-action may be forthcoming.
Our stopwatch is still ticking.
Positions
The account positions are short Oil & Gas XOP, using DUG as the vehicle (not advice, not a recommendation).
So far, its been a lot of banging around without much progress either way. However, at this point, a new low for DUG, below today’s low would signal trouble for the short side.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A higher XOP open would have probably been a short set-up (DUG) failure.
However, that’s not what happened.
The open was lower but then price action went on to post a new daily high above yesterday’s.
At this juncture, the short set-up is still valid (not advice, not a recommendation).
How can a new daily high be acceptable for a short position?
Repeating Set-Up:
Back in August this post was created to help document a market behavior that’s probably been repeating since the beginning.
My former mentor, David Weis used to call it ‘Spring to Up-thrust’, using Wyckoff’s terminology.
The fact the set-up’s been repeating for decades, if not a century or more, is definitive proof traditional valuations and fundamentals have nothing to do with actual price movement.
That’s a topic for another time.
XOP Analysis:
We’ll start with an un-marked XOP daily chart:
It doesn’t look like much is going on. So, let’s zoom into the far right side using the 15-minute, below:
Ok, what am I supposed to see?
Marking up the chart, we have the following:
Once we have the correct annotations, it’s obvious XOP just posted a ‘Spring to Up-thrust’.
True, it’s on a minor time frame like the 15-minute; however, it does give a clue XOP, could be in for a more significant and longer-term reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning:
If XOP is somehow able to post another new daily high during this session or subsequent, most likely it would be time to exit our short position (via DUG, not advice, not a recommendation).
For now, the expectation’s for continued oscillation below today’s high … while XOP figures out if that’s all there is for the up-side.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
XOP is either in a deep test at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace level (distance between black lines), or it’s getting ready to post new recovery highs.
Volume was moderate with no overt indication either way.
A higher open at the next session would most likely indicate trouble for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, one has to realize we’re at extremes in price and most likely sentiment as well.
Looking at the weekly gives a better perspective:
Positioning:
We’re keeping the finger close to the sell button (for inverse DUG) but are not convinced the short set-up has been invalidated (not advice, not a recommendation).
Price action’s at a confluence of trend lines and resistance. Some type of trend confusion is to be expected.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With so many unprepared and focused on the wrong things (like the name of a baseball warm-up area), when the bottom drops out, there’re going to be once in a lifetime investment opportunities.
No. 2
Gold To Soar … Yet Again
Looks like the boys (and girls) at Kitco are back at it again. Gold is going up for sure this time … honest.
At time stamp 15:08, the female interviewer really puts the screws to her guest.
She does not believe a word he’s saying … so, there’s that.
If you have to show your ‘papers’ to sell gold at the local bullion dealer, what’s the point of owning it?
No. 3
Escape From New York
Come this Monday, we’re going to see what happens when approximately 25% of a major city’s police, fire and healthcare employees don’t show up for work.
Time to take notes.
No. 4
Drinking Beer Outside The Liquor Store
Looks likes it’s just a normal thing if you’re in the Ukraine (time stamp 15:08)
No. 5
In a Knife Fight … No Rules !!!
There are no rules anymore. Bullet item No. 6, below shows the confiscation plans are moving forward.
As a caveat, the financial services industry. i.e. ‘wealth management’, is operating with a paradigm that no longer exists.
One of the objectives of this site, is to offer an alternative to the group-think of wealth managers.
Certification presents itself as an authority figure … just like Fox News presents itself as the alternative.
In fact, those in control own both sides of the narrative.
Does anyone really think FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) is going to allow a wealth manager to make his clients overtly wealthy?
Even if that manager knew what to do, he’s hamstrung by regulations like ‘Fiduciary Responsibility‘; effectively guaranteeing the person with the least amount of knowledge (i.e., the client) is in control.
There has been enough time for the American working (and saving) public to take the lessons of the 2007- 2009 meltdown and act accordingly.
One of those lessons would have been to realize just how close they came to having their IRAs confiscated.
Personally, I’m surprised that any of the following links below are still active. Well, who’s looking at this stuff anyway? Certainly, not the general public:
After reading several of these reports in 2009 and later, it did not take long for me to set the plan in motion to cash out … completely. I took the 10% penalty, while it’s still 10% and liquidated my accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).
The rest of the population? Not so much.
I think it was Prechter who laid out just how easy it is for the government to seize IRA accounts. It’s basically a two step process.
Step 1.
The market drops 50% to 70%. Remember, the drop from 2007 to the bottom in 2009 was 58%.
Step 2.
Declare a state of emergency (executive order) for the working population and move in to “save” the IRA accounts from more devastation.
The result would involve a stiff withdrawal penalty (say 50%) and to “protect” the accounts from further losses, IRAs can only invest in U.S. Treasuries or Bonds.
The scenario may not happen exactly as detailed above. The Stew Peters link (repeated here) shows there are several ways to access the IRA accounts (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Will Demand Collapse Faster Than Supply Contracts ?
Is There A Biotech Connection ?
The Next Chess Move
Everyone’s good at telling you what the problem is; it’s a financial collapse !!!
No, Duh!
The hard part is, how to position for the unknown at least for those of us in the serfdom.
The so-called elites, the oligarchs know (or think they know) exactly what’s happening.
They move their chess players and we move ours. The goal is to position for (potential) profit with the caveat we all make it out on the other side.
Personal Anecdote (skip to XOP Analysis if not interested):
I have a close family member that’s been a school teacher for about twenty years. He/She is well known in the local town and has a significant number of connections.
Because the children being taught are typically small, ranging from kindergarten to fourth grade, those kids tend to reveal all that’s happening at home.
Their revelations include financial status (or lack of), political leanings as well as abuse that’s happening physically and sexually. It’s the real deal.
As an aside, any potential crimes are fully documented and reported.
The point here is, this contact has revealed that children, family members and extended family members are severely ill or dropping dead after receiving an ‘injection’.
However, the surviving family members are just too stupid (or afraid) to put it together; the injections are causing the deaths.
It’s some kind of mental block and/or mass hypnosis.
It’s wrenching and heartbreaking.
However, at the same time and this is where it gets harsh, for those of us in the faith, we know Biblical scripture tells us the Lord delights in hiding the truth.
One has to diligently seek out truth. It takes work and a prayerful form of neural plasticity; the ability to be mentally flexible.
Truth is not for the lazy, the incompetent, the coward.
Why should immutable truth come to a coward or idiot that does not diligently seek it?
New ‘Variant’:
The rapidly increasing deaths may be passed off by the mainstream media as some kind of new ‘variant’.
That ‘variant’ brings us to the market at hand; oil and oil exploration XOP and possible biotech connection.
XOP Analysis:
As with biotech SPBIO, and its leveraged inverse fund LABD, so too we have Oil & Gas Exploration XOP, and leveraged inverse fund DUG.
The long term un-marked, weekly chart of XOP:
Next, we have price action contacting a multi-year trendline:
Moving closer on the weekly, we have a terminating wedge:
Terminating wedge(s) typically result in price action moving opposite of wedge formation.
In the case above, that would be a reversal to the downside.
This past week’s bar was a reversal. It’s a potential signal the formation is complete and XOP is ready for the downside.
Of course, if XOP is about to head lower, inverse DUG is about to head higher (not advice, not a recommendation).
Daily chart of DUG.
The Biotech (SPBIO) Connection:
The weekly chart of SPBIO, shows momentum on downward thrusts has slowed. The black dashed arrow’s trajectory is becoming more shallow:
If biotech is going to retrace, the solid blue line is a Fibonacci 38%, as well as potential location for an up-thrust (downside reversal).
A new variant (which is likely injection injury) may be used by the media to drive biotech higher to the retrace level.
We’ll have to wait and see if there’s a reduction of the population as we head into the end of the year. It’s a known fact, the injection destroys the immune system … so far, permanently.
That would be a factor in the up-coming flu season.
Remember that?
We used to have a regular flu season … but that all disappeared (re-branded, actually) with our current situation.
Summary:
Nearly all recessions have started with rising oil prices.
However, we’re not in a recession but an all out collapse. The economy is contracting at the fastest rate in U.S. history.
Our current position is demand will collapse faster than supply restriction (not advice, not a recommendation).
Or, we could still have rising oil prices but it won’t be enough to offset the cost of drilling and production; lack of demand may be overwhelming.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.
Dollar (UUP) Analysis:
The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:
The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.
Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.
A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The daily chart above, shows our current location.
Inverting the chart and expanding the price action gives us the following:
Was today an attempt to break the up-trend (down-trend, non-inverted)?
Wyckoff called this type of sharp adverse move ‘threatening action’.
You won’t know if the market’s going to carry out the threat until the next session or subsequent sessions.
Positioning:
My firm’s (core) short position remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, the main account holding of LABD, was reduced by approximately 2.9%, during this session to adjust for margin requirements.
It’s important to note, the after hours session is already trading about 1% higher (for inverse LABD); a typical occurrence when the day’s move was a shakeout.
We’ll see if that action carries over to the regular session tomorrow.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 