Rate Cut … Now, What?

September 17, 2025 By in Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, Michael Bordenaro, Positions, ShadowStats, SPBIO, XBI

Think, ‘Outside The Herd’

Michael Bordenaro, spells out the current jobs situation from a ‘boots on the ground’ perspective, link here.

From the video and comments, the agreement seems to be, unemployment is much higher than 5%.

Of course, if one is interested, more accurate job numbers (and inflation numbers) are at this link.

Separately, it appears that biotech XBI, has made a triple-top (not advice, not a recommendation).

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Breakout or Breakdown … Biotech

September 16, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, MyStrategicForecast, Positions, QQQ, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, XBI 2 Comments

‘Winds of Change‘

The last update said, XBI presented the ‘best (index) short opportunity’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is that still true?

With the SPY and Qs, still grinding higher, XBI is absent, having topped four days ago.

It’s not necessarily the top per se, but the XBI location in the overall market.

While the major indices are just now reaching all-time highs, biotech XBI, posted all-time highs years ago.

Four and a half years, to be more precise.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today’s action can be considered as a ‘test’ of the attempted (possibly failed) breakout.

There’s ‘evidence of a struggle’ and XBI is not (at this time) moving higher.

Adding to that, we have what’s been referred to as ‘Kabuki Theater‘ coming up at 2:00 p.m., EST, tomorrow).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Pornographic’ (stock) Valuations

September 15, 2025 By in Thoughtful Money

A New Adjective

Back in the day, it was ‘richly’ valued, ‘over’ valued, ‘overbought’, ‘stretched’, and ‘irrational exuberance’.

Now, there’s a new description being bandied:

‘Pornographically Over-Valued’

The first ten-minutes or so, at this link is all one needs to see, to understand the backdrop of where we are from a market perspective.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Walmart Watch

September 14, 2025 By in MyStrategicForecast, Shadow Trader, Up-Thrust, WMT 2 Comments

Inflection Point?

Walmart doesn’t have far to go in either direction, to define the next move.

Before getting started, let’s go back to comments made about WMT from September 4th, on this post:

“WMT, just might continue to grind higher to post above the 103-area to take out stops … maybe.“

Of course, it was a ‘maybe’; we’re dealing with probabilities.

With that said, the ‘maybe’ happened.

Walmart WMT, Daily

At the far left of the chart is WMT’s all-time high.

Next, we have a lower high on August 8th.; now, we’re in ‘up-thrust’ position.

Data coming in, here and here, indicates the market(s) may be at an inflection point, minor, or potentially, major.

The second link is especially well-done; it methodically steps through the mechanics of a potential high.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The ‘Psychotic’ Market

September 13, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bert Dohmen, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 4 Comments

Pivot Point

The first 17:43-minutes at this link, describes the market’s mental condition and that of its unwitting participants.

Even though the language used is different (contains profanity), it’s essentially the same thing echoed by Bert Dohmen at this update.

They’re both saying a ‘break’ is coming.

This time around however, when it happens, it won’t be anything like we’ve ever seen (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Trades Only (so far)

Question:

When’s the best time to refine short trade skills?

Answer:

When you don’t have to. 🙂

We’re coming up on two-years of short-selling as presented on this site.

The real (sustained) breakdown has yet to happen. All the while, short expertise is being honed.

With that, let’s look at the latest (potential) short-trade candidate.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

We’ve had seven consecutive higher closes.

Was that it, or will Monday, be a Fibonacci eight?

The last time there were as many consecutive higher closes, was from 2/10, to 2/20, this year.

That time, it was eight higher closes, kicking off a -36.5%, decline in less than eight weeks.

The ‘Pattern’

As shown, we have the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Volume Clues

September 12, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Inflection Point

We’re right at the top of resistance.

It looks like volume is sending us a message.

But what?

The increase in volume is (potentially) either absorption of sellers, getting ready to move higher, or distribution with the ‘manipulators’ holding up the SOXX, so that sell, and sell-short positions are opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Either way, it looks like something’s about to happen.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Close

A new daily high, points probability to the upside; new low, the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Hovers at Highs

September 11, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Mid-Air

This could be all there is for the SOXX.

If price action can’t continue higher from here, we could have a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … The Big One?

September 10, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, HOOD, IBB, Karen Kingston, LABD, LABD-25-10, Nasdaq, ORCL, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, XBI 3 Comments

Next Leg Lower

Unfortunately, the (mad scientist) graphic at left, is not too far removed from what’s really going on in biotech.

While the S&P, Nasdaq Qs, Gold Miners, Semiconductors, Financials, The HOOD, ORCL, and others, continue to make all-time highs, conspicuously absent is biotech, XBI and IBB.

Now, it appears that quietly, in the background, XBI is reversing to the downside.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

The up-thrust is there, but is a weak penetration of resistance.

Even so, on the ‘test’, volume contracted by -49.24%, when compared to volume on the upside penetration.

Until proven otherwise, this set-up appears to (currently) be the best short opportunity.

With that said, all other short positions have been closed to focus on biotech.

Leveraged inverse fund LABD is being used at this juncture: Trade LABD-25-10, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a reocmmendiaton).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Old Timer’s ‘Truth’

September 9, 2025 By in 1929, Bert Dohman, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, HOOD, HOOD-25-07, Kitco, Kitco News, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, ShadowStats, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

The Real Story

If there’s any one interview that details what’s really going on, it’s this, link here.

The 48-mintue Kitco session with Bert Dohmen, is much needed straight talk.

It’s all there:

Official data is fake. Markets will (likely) ‘trap’ bulls with massive gap-down. It’s 1929 (again). Crypto is an illusion. Silver/Gold will correct (temporarily) along with the markets. We’re surrounded by bought off media. The population (masses) don’t think or can’t think.

Adding to that are ideas and sources discussed for years on this site, like ShadowStats having ‘real’ data on unemployment and inflation.

The list goes on.

With all that said, let’s look at one of the sectors (retail brokers), that could be hit hard during a surprise downturn.

Robinhood HOOD, Daily

It’s important to note, price action late Friday, began to pull away from the lows … rising into the close.

Just after that close, the announcement, HOOD made it to the S&P.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something. That ‘something’ shows up on the tape’

Well, there it is.

Was yesterday (the start of) a blow-off?

Froce Index (thrust) was the largest since the IPO, trading on August 4th, of 2021.

Price action is currently (as of 11:58 a.m., EST) retreating off the highs.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279