Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday tested the reversal from Monday’s false breakout.
David Weis used to call such action a ‘gut-check’ to see if you could hang on to your (short) position.
Even so, today could be the more important day.
The question is: Will biotech XBI, post a new daily low, confirming the test or levitate on the next (perceived) health ‘crisis‘.
Biotech XBI, Daily
It’s about fifteen-minutes before the regular open. XBI, is trading lower, giving us a hint, yesterday completed the test (not advice, not a recommendation).
If we get a new daily low, it’s possible there’s a trading channel with pivot point at Fibonacci 21-Days.
Positioning
The side bar shows an active short: LABD-25-03.
As a result of yesterday’s action, the stop on that trade has been moved higher to LABD 7.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.
Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂
Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.
David Weis 1980s
Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.
He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):
‘We considered none of these things …’
That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.
With that, we have Carvana.
Carvana CVNA, Daily
What can be said?
After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.
This post is coming out before the regular open.
CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.
The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.
While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.
Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).
Biotech XBI, Weekly
The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.
A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.
If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).
As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).
Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.
Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.
Middle East conflict escalates.
The question is, will the markets see it that way?
Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?
If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close
Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.
At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.
If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.
Then & Now
With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?
The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.
We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.
What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?
If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.
Then, The Fed
We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.
Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?
Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day
Who uses an 8-Day chart?
Not anybody I know 🙂
If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).
Lastly, Ed Dowd
Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The weekly chart of gold (GLD) shows it has met a wedge breakout target.
The bottom end of the wedge is taken from the march 2020, panic lows, upward to the Sep – Nov 2022, lows.
What’s not shown, taking that trendline farther back in time, also intersects a congestion area from June – August 2019, thus providing additional validity.
Meeting a target does not mean reversal.
However, it does mean, speculators that were positioned long are likely taking profits or cashing out entirely; all the while, the media is ‘raising targets’ on its gold forecasts (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This update on the miners GDXJ, said we’re close to a bearish divergence if the ETF makes a new high.
This update also said to watch for a new daily high, finishing with this:
“Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).”
With today’s price action we could be ticks away from that anticipated new daily high (above the 2/20, 52.91).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily
Note the typical (average) 50%, retrace between blue lines, that was then followed by a deeper 61.8% retrace, from blue to magenta lines.
The last deep retrace to 61.8%, tells us supply is building even though price continues higher.
Best case scenario: Next session opens gap-higher, clearing out stops (buy and sell), creating price action instability (not advice, not a recommendation),
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 