Tag Archives: finance

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Breakdown

January 10, 2025 By in David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Short(s) Hanging On … Tight

Everyone seems to think, January 20th (if we ever get there), is going to bring a new era of ‘prosperity’.

We even have a hot-off-the-press, jobs number, magically appear to bolster the case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price Action … Truth

The crux of Wyckoff analysis, proposed over a century ago, is that we’re to completely ignore the financial press.

The focus is to be on the action itself.

Doing that, identified a potential opportunity; Russell 2000 (IWM), presented as a possible short candidate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that update (as of 11:13 a.m., EST), IWM is down near -4%, leveraged inverse fund TZA, up about +13%.

Possibly more important as we’ll see below, are the trendlines and channel(s).

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

The grey (dashed) trendline has verified contact points on January 6th, 7th, 8th and today, the 10th.

The ‘reverse trendline’ technique is being used to identify the potential right side.

Reverse trendline, discussed in the David Weis training video, link here.

What’s Next?

The short answer is, it’s not known.

However, the probability is, for action to continue in the direction already established … that is, down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market (TLT) Blowout

January 8, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , ,

Massive ‘Exit’

Even the dog is getting out of the bond market 🙂

For long-time visitors, we see years of ‘strategy’, playing out in real time.

One tenet of that strategy is/was, the bond bull-market (TLT) is over. It’s a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Repeat Post From 3/17/20

Nearly five years ago, was this:

Back then … “we may be at the all time top”.

Extreme or More

So, it’s taken nearly five-years for the market to reach the extreme discussed here.

Does that mean we’re at some kind of bottom? Is it really ‘tax related’ as suggested in the link?

That’s always possible.

However, an alternate view of what’s going on is here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Enough said.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla Tops-Out … (again)

January 3, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, DXD, DXD-25-01, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

This Time … Maybe

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

All previous updates on Tesla (TSLA) have been technical, indicating some level of curiosity.

This time, is different.

Currently positioned short TSLA, early in this session via inverse fund TSLS (not advice, not a recommendation)

Telsa 1X Inverse Fund, TSLS, Daily

The ‘support’ area shown is actually resistance on the non-inverted chart of TSLA.

As of this post (12:51 p.m., EST), low for inverse fund TSLS is 8.14; if held for the day, it will be the hard stop (not advice, not a recommendation).

Sentiment Warning(s)

Sentiment, Volume, Price; typical model for reversal.

In the case of Tesla, we may have all three (not advice, not a recommendation).

Position(s)

One gets the sense the beginning of this year, has the market sorting itself out.

A brief summary of trade activity for today (not advice, not a recommendation):

DXD-25-01, closed with -1.56%, loss.

TSLS-25-01, opened as detailed above

DUST-25-01, opened … depending on price action, details to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Dow … Down

January 2, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, Dow 30, DXD, DXD-25-01, LABD, LABD-24-21, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , ,

Adjusting The Short(s)

For the Dow 30, the ‘January Effect’, lasted less than an hour.

From then on, it’s been decisively down.

The biotech sector on the other hand, was and is still (as of 1:30 p.m., EST) higher for the day.

Trade LABD-24-21, was exited with +14.52%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Dow 30 (DIA)

Price action is posting outside-down for the day with just over two-hours before the close.

The important part, Dow (DIA) upside was limited when compared to biotech.

Wyckoff said a century ago, we must adhere to what the price action is telling us; no matter our ‘opinion’, the action is always right.

With that said, short trade DXD-25-01, was initiated (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News Bonds

December 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Dr. Elder, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Stealth Collapse

Does anyone (thinking) think, the debt is going to be repaid?

What does anyone (thinking) think the DOGE Brothers are all about, anyway?

Does anyone (thinking) think RFK-Jr., is after Froot Loops and food coloring?

‘Sleepwalking through the markets’, as Dr. Elder put it, years ago.

The market itself tells us the most likely outcome, the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Right now, bonds (TLT) are telling us, down-pressure (rates up) continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly

Will this time, be like last time?

Moving in closer on the weekly

We’re about thirty minutes from the regular session.

Bonds (TLT), are set to open lower, continuing the downward slide with rates pressuring on higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana Cracks

December 22, 2024 By in CVNA, KMX, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Same As It Ever Was?

It’s a market smorgasbord of opportunities but for this site, it’s not to the upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s get started with this:

‘The economy’s doing great, same as it ever was’

Just to remind us how great it is, is this, link here.

Moving on to the poster child of the day, Carvana.

As expected, the CarMax (KMX) earnings release, affected not only CarMax, but Carvana’s price action as well.

The last update on Carvana said to be on the lookout for a reversal based on the lack of volatility alone.

Well, that’s what happened, and volatility has increased.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The question now: CVNA price action has declined and penetrated established support, putting it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

Will there be one (potential) last ‘blip’ higher?

Of course, CVNA could head down from here.

Price action over the next few days, will let us know the most likely outcome.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279