Monthly Archives: June 2024

Nat-Gas … Another Set-Up

June 30, 2024 By in Natural Gas, UNG, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Watch For The ‘Bounce’

Nat-Gas, UNG, is at support right now.

So, what happens next?

Before we get to that, let’s first be aware of what’s being presented to the public. This recent link, says that upon increase in production, ‘go short’ (absolutely, definitely, not advice, not a recommendation).

So, the advice is, somehow tie the fundamentals to a trading action?

Given that going short on increase of production would even work (I wouldn’t do it), how is anyone going to figure out whether those numbers are real?

So, we choose not to play the game and instead, go straight to the truth, price action.

Nat-Gas UNG, Daily

First, it’s important to note the ‘Risk At A Low’, area.

That’s the location of this update.

With price action now at support, anything can happen.

There could be an immediate bounce, downside penetration, or some combination.

Note that Force Index (purple rectangle), shows action as ‘well behaved’.

That is, there’s no apparent craziness as was seen to the far left of the chart with wide swings in Force Index.

If UNG, does bounce higher from here, it increases the importance of the support level.

That, in turn, gives us a ‘heads up’; keep watching for a subsequent downside penetration and possible Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The CORN Collapse

June 29, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Corn, Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, ice-age-farmer, Natural Gas, SPBIO, Teucrium, UNG, Wyckoff, XBI

Another Nat-Gas Scenario?

The beginning of a bullish set-up?

The financial press says the wipeout in corn, is because of oversupply.

That, may or may not, be true.

Since Wyckoff analysis doesn’t care about the press, we’ll use it to discern the (potential) truth.

Let’s see how it did in the recent past. The Nat-Gas (UNG) low, was identified to-the-day, link here.

From that post, was this:

“Downward thrust in Nat-Gas UNG, appears to be exhausting itself after a 20-month, bear market. Risk is never zero, but currently appears to be at a low … “

So, it was. Afterwards, UNG bounced near, but never touched that low.

Twelve trading days later (Fibonacci 13 days, from low), it reversed decisively to the upside.

The Same, But Not

On the medium, to long-term, CORN action is the same as biotech (XBI), but opposite.

Instead of an up-thrust two-years in the making, we may have a spring set-up, taking just as long if not longer.

Where’s The ‘Potato’?

So, where’s the ‘Potato Head Gambit‘?

It’s possible, mishaps could be on the upside instead of down. It worked last time; here and here.

That ‘event’ went straight across the most-dense areas of the corn belt.

All of which, brings us to the chart.

Teucrium CORN Fund, Weekly

We’re in spring position now (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, shown on the chart is a potential low at the Fibonacci 76.4%, retrace.

The financial press article in the very first link (above) does have some useful information.

That is, ‘spec’ traders are adding to short positions.

‘Spec’ traders are the least informed.

It’s the ‘commercials’, professionals working the industry that are most informed.

Monitoring what they (the commercials) are doing is the potential key to the next likely direction for CORN (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nivida Blow-Off Top?

June 27, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX

Supplementary Data, Independant Source

Before we get to the ‘independent source’, a quick review of the June 21st, update (emphasis added):

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

That was based on a wide gamut of data with none of it, ‘fundamentals’, except ‘the money’s gone’; the conclusion, NVDA, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that, on this site, right here in River City. 🙂

Independant Source

Now, we have this from Ed Dowd, link here (time stamp: 5:45, 8:30, and 9:40) saying NVDA, had an ‘exhaustion top’, posting on two timeframes.

Note: Wyckoff analysis, with its century-old technique, is coming to the same conclusions as the Wall Street ‘number crunchers’ with near-infinite computing power.

Now, on to the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

The trading channel (blue lines) is potential only, not confirmed.

What we do have, is once again, NVDA being influenced by Fibonacci time-correlation(s).

Nvidia reversed on Fibonacci Week 89, from the October 14th, 2022, lows.

Now, its adhering (so far), to daily Fibonacci.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Neural Plasticity … Be Flexible

June 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, LABD, LABD-24-13, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Reviewing The Plan

From the outset, the premise for biotech XBI, was this:

We’re in a huge up-thrust, several years in the making (not advice, not a recommendation).

With a set-up that big, downside potential was projected to be just as big, link here.

Then came the hard part, validating the premise and getting into position.

Nural Plasticity

So, it’s been on again, off again; a total of seven short trades; LABD-24-06 – LABD-24-12, with an eighth, LABD-24-13 opened, as of today.

The entire (closed) series has been profitable.

However, during that time, assessment of (major) downside potential shifted from confidence to caution, and now back to confidence.

‘Sticking to one’s guns’, no matter what the market (the tape) is saying, is a sign of real trouble.

The market itself directed the entering/exiting.

With that, let’s move on.

The ‘New’ Paradigm

Reviewing the host of ‘experts’ in the press and YouTube alike, (except for UE), everybody has their reason on why nothing (bad) will happen until after the ‘election’.

The last go-round should have broken that paradigm completely; but no, we’re still hanging on.

The ‘new’ paradigm is probably, ‘no’ paradigm. 🙂

From a Wyckoff perspective, the financial press is to be ignored except for when data releases are scheduled.

What’s in the release is not important; it’s the time and date itself, warning of potential volatility.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted)

Once again, inverting the chart to show the short-side (LABD) potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The dashed blue lines, an extension of the support level shows we’re also in a potential spring set-up at one higher timeframe, the weekly; more background, link here.

Positioning

As noted above, a new short position was opened via LABD, during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typically, discussion of open trades within the trading community is (or should be) taboo. As Elder said years ago, there’s the real risk of ‘ego’ causing errors in discernment.

With that said, I might exit this trade at any time, without notice, without explanation.

Veteran traders will agree with that statement; when something’s ‘off’ with a trade (only known to them), it’s time to get out.

Nonetheless, a hard stop for today’s position would be yesterday’s LABD, low of 6.97 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna ‘Message’, Part II

June 26, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-13, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI

What A Difference, A Day Makes

Well, there you have it.

The potential upside from yesterday’s post has been negated … that quickly.

MRNA, has reversed and punched through support levels (as of 10:00 a.m., EST) and did it decisively.

That puts the biotech short back on the table (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Message’

June 25, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, MRNA, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

What’s Price Action Telling Us?

Is Moderna telling us to get ready for another round of ‘shenanigans’?

The last update showed how action was adhering nearly perfectly to Fibonacci levels.

The take-away; MRNA, most likely is headed lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Well, that was then.

We’re going back to the daily chart, looking at potential for higher action.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

As with the prior update, two Fibonacci projection tools are shown; standard retrace, and ‘a-b-c’ projection from November 2nd, 2023, lows.

We can see, price action’s at The Danger Point®, in ‘spring’ position, ready to move higher.

Is this buoyancy and absorption of the sellers?

As Weis said (in his video), absorption is difficult to detect until it’s obvious.

If we’re headed to new highs, past the 23.6%, retrace, there’d have to be a ‘reason’ or (money making) ‘catalyst’ for such an event.

Something like this, perhaps?

If MRNA is gearing for a move higher, that explains buoyancy in the biotech sector as a whole, the refusal of XBI, to head decisively lower.

As stated earlier, XBI short position via LABD, noted as LABD-24-12, in prior updates has been closed (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Up, For Gap-Down?

June 23, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, Uneducated Economist

The Key Lies with Past & Present

This update will show why there’s a probability for lower open, lower price action, and/or ‘island-gap-reversal’, for the SOXX, at the next session.

With the understanding that ‘anything can happen’, let’s get into the SOXX price action, along with chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

Market Reversal?

First off, does anyone expect a significant reversal?

Following the breadcrumbs, here’s a link from the comments section posted during a livestream by Uneducated Economist; go to Time Stamp 23:45.

Note: The second link is not from Simon (Uneducated Economist) himself but obtained from snide remarks made to him during his livestream.

Using the timestamp, judge for yourself.

My takeaway is:

They don’t know. The amount of time wasted ‘crunching the numbers’ is mind numbing. Number crunching is easy and that’s why (nearly) everyone does it.

Reading price action (effectively) is hard and that’s why you’re here. 🙂

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily Candle

The chart highlights the ‘island-gap’ potential.

However, the real story is in the second chart, Nvidia.

Remember that markets tend to alternate. Last time, is not this time.

The last time Nvidia had a significant outside-down, it went into consolidation before moving higher.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily Candle

Looking at the chart, ‘this time’, is already different.

From the 10:1 split, to outside-down, is Fibonacci 8-Days.

Last time there was a wide outside-down (March 8th), the next day was narrow range, volume decreasing,

This time, we have narrow range, volume increasing.

The Higher Probability

Taking it all into account, the higher probability is for continued downside. It’s a probability, not a guarantee.

If we get upside at the next session, then it’s time to stand aside, re-sharpen the pencil and start looking for another reversal potential (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A Tale Of Two Tops … Nvidia

June 22, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX

The Rule of ‘Alternation’

It’s not hyperbolic to say, what’s happening to Nvidia right now, has never happened before.

As we’ll see on the chart, the market itself proves that point.

Work has already been done (here, here, here and here) on why Nvidia, may be at a significant inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now the smoke has cleared from Friday’s session, we can look at what happened and what’s likely to happen.

First, we’ll use a Fibonacci 8-Day, chart.

Why? Because nobody else uses one. 🙂

Besides being a Fibonacci number (just like the Weekly, at 5-Day), the 8-Day, seems to show the potential better (at this point) than other timeframes.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

Let’s go all the way back to the beginning and why the current situation is unique.

NVDA, started trading the week of January 22nd, 1999.

During that span, there are no two Force Indicator occurrences (shown below) at this level of energy.

In fact, there are no Force Index prints at this level, ever.

The only print that comes close is also shown on the chart, occurring in late May, of ’23.

An astute observer can instantly see the trouble or potential trouble.

During the consolidation period from mid-March to late April, Force Index declined and eventually posted negative.

That temporary wash-out provided fuel for more upside.

Now, price is rising with force declining, at the same time.

The inference, the rally is weak if not extremely weak.

Let’s not forget, the ‘old-timers’ say it’s the biggest bubble they’ve ever seen.

Couple that with NVDA, having already launched from bottom to top, 1999 – to- Latest Highs, a massive 469,000%.

Time permitting, in the next update, we’ll look at the potential for an ‘Island Gap Reversal’, in the SOXX.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Split Top … Part II

June 21, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-09, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI 2 Comments

Reversal On ‘Week 89’ ?

The tape is saying ‘This could be it’.

No one knows if this is ‘The top’, or just ‘A top’, until it’s all over (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update for Nvidia, said we’re nearing Fibonacci Week 89 (from the October ’22, lows); look for evidence of a reversal.

With three-hours left in the session, NVDA is on track (along with the SOXX) to posting a weekly reversal bar.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The chart updated to show we’re at ‘Week 89’.

The fact (minus 3-hours) we’re getting a reversal bar on ‘Week 89’, is potential validation of the Fibonacci count.

The market itself is telling us where to look.

With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Update: 2:07 p.m., EST

Housekeeping Note:

While under no obligation to discuss trades, nonetheless, for those following the biotech short (LABD-24-12), that trade has been exited (for now) with profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The A.I. Money’s Down The Drain

June 20, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff, Wyckoff Stock Market Institute 2 Comments

The Plug, Has Been Pulled

Markets reverse in a typical way; first is ‘sentiment’, then ‘volume’, then ‘price’.

According to this link, looks like we have sentiment aplenty; evaporating sentiment, that is.

As stated by Mr. Fred Hickey, VC (Venture Capital) funding peaked last year and has dropped over 75%, since then; that’s the ‘sentiment’ part of the equation.

A partial synopsis of his interview, in the link above:

Time Stamp:

9:15, The greatest bubble I’ve ever seen

11:15, It’s all happened before

11:40, Narrowing market

11:55, Volume decline

16:30, Honeymoon phase is over

17:50, VC spending down 75%

18:05, Everyone knows it’s a joke (except, Wall St.)

And on it goes …

Where’s The Top?

From a Wyckoff perspective, using his analysis (here and here) as a basis of speculation, that’s the wrong question (not advice, not a recommendation).

If we’re expecting some kind of massive reversal (which we are), then the objective is to look for the weakest sectors, not the strongest.

Frequent users of this site already know that work’s been done. One of, if not the weakest sector(s), is Biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Is Today, The Day?

With that said, as this post is being created (1:20 p.m., EST), the sector at the center of bubble attention, the SOXX, may have just completed a wedge ‘throw-over’.

Semiconductors SOXX (ETF), Daily

Any number of scenarios can be in play.

At this point, the SOXX, may be in the process of validating the terminating wedge (not advice, not a recommendation).

As Fred Hickey said, it’s the biggest bubble he’s ever seen.

By the time it becomes obvious, it’s way too late for (low-risk) positioning.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279