Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.
If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.
One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.
What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂
With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.
We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.
Strategy, Tactics, Focus
The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.
Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).
The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.
Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.
A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.
From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.
That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.
So, here we are. 🙂
We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.
Sounds about right.
Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Gold GLD, Daily Close
We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.
Human psychology does not change.
Buying on the way down.
From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.
From his findings:
Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.
Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.
Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All
As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.
The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.
It’s impossible to know if this time is different.
However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?
Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.
The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.
Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.
However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.
Strategy First
Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.
Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.
With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):
CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02
Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For several years, strategy, ideas, or analysis posted on this site, have been stolen, copied, ‘coincidentally’ presented a day-later, on YouTube, or in financial publications (nearly, word-for-word) without reference to the source.
The most recent of these (potential) occurrences was just days ago … we’ll leave it there.
Since others see fit to use this material without reference, and to combat the incessant theft, a paywall needs to be implemented; details of which, forthcoming.
This (paywall) action is no different than what Karen Kingston lamented during interviews with Greg Hunter.
People were stealing her biotech research, then going on to publish it, as if it was their own.
Ladies and gentlemen, the (economic) tide is going out. Have a short-list of ‘trusted contacts’. This site would like to be one of them.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 