Monthly Archives: October 2025

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bonds, CDNS, DIA, Dow 30, IBB, Natural Gas, SPBIO, TLT, UNG, WFC, Wyckoff, XBI

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top of The Dow

October 10, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Where The Risk is Least

The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.

Massive Margin Call

The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.

Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.

With that said, on to the chart.

Dow 30 DIA, Daily

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.

The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech (short) Set-Up

October 9, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, IBB, LABD, LABD-25-13, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 3 Comments

Breakout Into Resistance

Both biotech funds, IBB, and XBI, are now in an up-thrust (potential reversal) condition.

In each case, the ETFs have pushed through a long-established trading range, straight into resistance.

The last update focused on less liquid IBB, because it was not known if heavily traded XBI, would push through its trading range (being the weaker of the two).

Since that initial update, both indices are now above their trading range.

Of course, what happens next is the question.

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The blue line is long established resistance.

The black dashed line is the top of the trading range and the up-thrust condition.

At this point anything can happen.

XBI, could reverse immediately or grind its way along, dissipate momentum, or even move higher.

We’re at the point where the risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will The SOXX Test?

October 8, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXX

Test, Downside, or Reversal

Pre-market trading in the SOXX (as of 7:08 a.m., EST), looks different from other recent downside action.

Typically, in the overnight session, bids come in and launch the SOXX upward; yet another bear trap move.

This time, so far, it’s not happening.

There may be a change of character.

If that’s true, and the SOXX is about to continue its downside action, one of the following is likely.

  1. There’s a weak retrace to either 23.6%, or 38.2%
  2. A small blip higher in the early session, then reversal, new daily low
  3. An ‘inside’ narrow range day

Of course, none of the above could be the result as well.

Currently, the SOXX is trading at 282.92, slightly above yesterday’s close.

Note the Fed minutes release at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

October 7, 2025 By in Biotech, BIS, BIS-25-01, IBB, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Where The Risk Is Least

Biotech tracking fund IBB, has posted itself into an interesting position.

Last week, it launched higher over +7% and penetrated long established resistance; this week, it has essentially stopped dead.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

If what we have is the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, it’s happening on a massive scale.

For a short position, the broker being used indicates HTB (Hard To Borrow); there are potential fees associated with selling short.

With that said, the 2X leveraged Inverse fund is BIS. However, it too has problems. It’s not liquid; typically, 14K – 20K shares a day.

Nonetheless, short established via BIS (BIS-25-01) with stop at the week’s low of 11.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66

October 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, S&P, S&P 500, WFC 2 Comments

Chaos Everywhere

While everyone’s chasing after the S&P top, maybe Wells Fargo has already given us the signal.

Back in the day (3/9/09), the S&P bottomed at, or near, 666.7

Revisionist History

It’s important to note, as time passes, finding any reporting of that low (666) is becoming increasing more difficult. Links here and here have two conflicting closes.

The ‘old-timers’ know and that’s what matters.

The Reversal

Wells Fargo posted its all-time high (86.66) ten-days ago, on September 23rd.

Today was a sight upside reversal, suggesting a (marginal) push higher.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas Upside Pressure

October 5, 2025 By in Corn, Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-25-01, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Rally Into Winter?

The technical position of Nat-Gas (UNG) suggests conditions are in place for upside demand into the winter months (not advice, not a recommendation).

Some type of (seasonal) nat-gas rally is typical but not guaranteed.

Adding to that, the anomaly in June of 2023, since prices had come down so much, naturally, they just had to go higher.

Speculators positioned accordingly, creating a massive imbalance, link here.

Obviously, the increase in price never happened.

Natural Gas ETF, UNG, Weekly Close

Now, over two-years later, there may be a bullish set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

This set-up looks very similar to CORN.

The latest CORN update included the potential for a retrace into a Wyckoff spring; last report, linked here.

Depending on price action, we’ll discuss that, this week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Robinhood … Pause & Reverse

October 4, 2025 By in Elliott Wave, HOOD, Prechter

Will The ‘Pattern’ Repeat?

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., first discussed the market ‘Rule of Alternation’, link here.

It’s a ‘rule’, not a ‘law’; meaning, there’s a potential for the alternation, not a guarantee.

The chart of Robinhood (HOOD) shows this alternation in effect with each contact of the trendline.

Robinhood HOOD, Weekly

We’ve just had the largest Force Index ‘thrust’ since the ill-fated IPO.

At that IPO, within the first two weeks of trading, HOOD reached a peak. It then went on to collapse -92%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Jabil ‘Canary’

October 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, JBL, JBL-25-01, Positions, Semiconductors

First To Go

When the order-flow begins to slow, outsource is the first to go.

Jabil (JBL) is an outsource for electronics related manufacturing.

With about 138,000 employees, it’s big.

Response to the latest earnings, has kicked off what looks like a reversal and now, a breakdown (not advice, not a recommendation).

Jabil JBL, Daily

After the deep thrust lower on earnings, JBL retraced to 50% before rolling over.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking Sector Breakdown

October 2, 2025 By in Financial Sector, Positions, Thoughtful Money, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-07

Top & Trend

Financial sector XLF, has topped, reversed, and now appears to have formed a nascent down-trend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Top ten components are listed here.

Of those ten, nine are directly related to banking, credit or the insane (dubbed ‘pornographic‘) valuations of the market.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

There’s an open short position, XLF-25-17, with stop located at yesterday’s high.

After today’s session, that stop will be moved lower to the high of today, currently at XLF 53.48 (not advice not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, although the trend appears to be lower, XLF has penetrated established support.

That puts it in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. Some (marginal) upside is to be expected.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279