Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Downside Leader … Biotech

January 14, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IBB, IWM, LABD-25-01, Russell 2000, SPBIO, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Confirming, Right-Side Channel

It’s a recurring theme with biotech.

Over and again, this sector (IBB, XBI) is not participating in tandem with the other major indices.

Today’s pre-market mayhem higher over supposed slower outlays of possible trade tariffs to happen some-time, some-day, caused the major indices to launch upward. 🙂

Well, everybody seemed to be blasting higher except one sector, biotech.

Wyckoff Directed Action

No matter what the ‘narrative’ may be, Wyckoff analysis directs us to look at what the market is actually doing, then interpret the action.

Early after the open, trade TZA-25-01, was exited, +8.9% gain, short position opened in biotech via LABD, Trade: LABD-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today posted outside down, taking out both the high and low of the prior session.

Note the trading channel and width, Fibonacci 13-Days.

Also note the two ‘breakaway gaps’. The second one on January 10th, much wider than November 12th, last year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana, Taps The ‘Break’

January 13, 2025 By in CVNA Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Was That It?

Is Carvana just like Wile E. Coyote, where he heads off the cliff, hangs for a moment, then looks down?

When looking at the weekly chart, we see the trend break and then what looks like a test.

The question is, was that it?

Carvana, CVNA, Weekly

As shown above, the nuance that hints at continued lower prices, not a more protracted test, is today’s open; that is, it’s below, last week’s close (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

From a corporate standpoint, no positions (long or short) are planned for CVNA.

We’re just noting the price action, providing the analysis (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Hits Support

January 11, 2025 By in DRV, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, SRS, Wyckoff

What’s Next?

Since late November, last year, real estate IYR, has essentially gone straight down.

In that time, it’s dropped -13.5%.

As we’ll see, IYR, has hit and penetrated support.

So, what’s next?

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

Note the ‘S’ and ‘U’ labeling.

It’s our repeating pattern of ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust’.

Also note, the initial bounce off support the prior two-weeks before last week’s (slight) penetration.

That ‘bounce’ did not go far, indicating continued weakness.

Even so, the last bar puts us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; some type of upward attempt would be ‘normal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that upward bounce does not happen or fails quickly, then it implies (continued) lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000, Breakdown

January 10, 2025 By in David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Short(s) Hanging On … Tight

Everyone seems to think, January 20th (if we ever get there), is going to bring a new era of ‘prosperity’.

We even have a hot-off-the-press, jobs number, magically appear to bolster the case (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price Action … Truth

The crux of Wyckoff analysis, proposed over a century ago, is that we’re to completely ignore the financial press.

The focus is to be on the action itself.

Doing that, identified a potential opportunity; Russell 2000 (IWM), presented as a possible short candidate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that update (as of 11:13 a.m., EST), IWM is down near -4%, leveraged inverse fund TZA, up about +13%.

Possibly more important as we’ll see below, are the trendlines and channel(s).

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

The grey (dashed) trendline has verified contact points on January 6th, 7th, 8th and today, the 10th.

The ‘reverse trendline’ technique is being used to identify the potential right side.

Reverse trendline, discussed in the David Weis training video, link here.

What’s Next?

The short answer is, it’s not known.

However, the probability is, for action to continue in the direction already established … that is, down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … What’s Next?

January 9, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg 1 Comment

Circus About To Start

For the longest time we’ve heard from various sources, polite ‘head scratching’, on Carvana’s ‘numbers’.

Now, it looks like the wheels are coming off and the circus is about to start (not advice, not a recommendation).

This Hindenburg Research reads like we’ve seen (a hint of) that before, here, here, and here.

However, scrolling through Hindenburg’s report, their ‘list’ is nothing short (no pun intended) of incredible.

Go-Forward Model

Years ago, during an episode of Wall Street Week, with Louis Rukeyser, one of his guests discussed a bad earnings release from a major firm.

Louis asked him (to the effect) if he thought the worst of the earnings were over?

His response was:

‘I believe in the cockroach theory. Where there’s one, there’s more’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Market (TLT) Blowout

January 8, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , ,

Massive ‘Exit’

Even the dog is getting out of the bond market 🙂

For long-time visitors, we see years of ‘strategy’, playing out in real time.

One tenet of that strategy is/was, the bond bull-market (TLT) is over. It’s a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Repeat Post From 3/17/20

Nearly five years ago, was this:

Back then … “we may be at the all time top”.

Extreme or More

So, it’s taken nearly five-years for the market to reach the extreme discussed here.

Does that mean we’re at some kind of bottom? Is it really ‘tax related’ as suggested in the link?

That’s always possible.

However, an alternate view of what’s going on is here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Enough said.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell, Goes Off-The-Rails

January 7, 2025 By in IWM, Positions, Russell 2000, TZA, TZA-25-01

The ‘Coil’ Snaps

Just yesterday, was this:

“When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.”

So, it did, with this morning’s session; decisively down.

There may also be confirmation of at least one trading channel; shown in the chart.

Russell 2000, ETF, IWM, Daily

Price action didn’t quite make it to a 38.2%, retrace before reversing lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

On the larger, weekly time frame (to be discussed later), there has also been an up-thrust reversal.

So, we have an up-thrust (daily), within an upthrust (weekly).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Watch for ‘Tight Action’

January 6, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, IWM, Russell 2000, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TZA, TZA-25-01, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 2 Comments

Coiled For A Move

How should the price action segment (at left) be marked up?

There are several Wyckoff analysis lessons and at least one empirical observation (made over several decades) in just the 16-bars of price action.

Empirical Observation

In a sense the prior update on Carvana (CVNA) illustrates the point.

When price action gets tight, something’s about to happen.

When that analysis was presented, little did we know, ‘Hindenburg‘ would come out and whack the stock.

So, let’s move on and mark up the chart … which just so happens to be the Russell 2000 ETF, IWM.

Russell 2000, IWM, Daily

The wide high-volume bar has been ‘tested’.

Price action penetrated lows posted December 20th; currently in spring condition that has (today) just posted into an up-thrust condition.

Repeating Pattern

From the late Wyckoff expert and mentor David Weis, spring-to-up-thrust is a repeating set-up, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla: The (short) Set-Up

January 5, 2025 By in CVNA, KMX, Positions, TSLA, TSLS, TSLS-25-01 Tags: , , , ,

‘Shorting-Out’, at The Top?

It’s likely we’ll know on Monday, whether or not last Friday’s action was a test (and completion) of the up-thrust reversal shown in the chart.

That reversal and potential test, coincides with ‘good news’, ‘bad news’, link here.

Tesla TSLA, Daily Close

Five years of price action.

Moving in closer to nine months of action.

The ‘resistance’ level goes all the way back to November 4th, 2021, with an all-time high close of 409.97.

Note: Friday’s close of 410.44, was only +0.11%, above the prior (closing) all-time high.

Another Carvana?

Similar to Carvana and its relation to CarMax, i.e., bloated market cap, Tesla has the largest market cap of all (major) auto manufacturers, link here.

Going back to this post on Carvana, volatility reaches a minimum; CVNA, is down a stiff -27.4%, since then.

Are we about to see similar action for Tesla?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279