Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
This trade could still fall apart for some unknown reason.
If it looks like the bulls are somehow re-gaining control, it will show up in the price action and we’ll exit accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Pre-market action in miners GDX, shows a slightly higher open with inverse fund DUST below yesterday’s low.
Is the short set-up busted?
In the markets, anything can happen but we don’t know who’s really in control … yet.
Even as the dollar powers higher, gold bulls could overpower deflationary conditions pushing gold and the mining sector up as well.
To do that, they’re going to need to overcome some significant resistance obstacles.
Let’s take a look at just a couple.
Senior Miners GDX
The un-marked chart:
The mark-up:
The mark-up shows the first two layers of resistance. The blue line is the Up-thrust (potential short) condition.
The dashed black line is not so easily discernable. It was formed way back in late July and early August.
The next two charts zoom into those areas of interest; providing evidence, getting above these levels may require a sustained effort by the bulls:
Summary:
The ‘inflation’ news is already out.
Price action in today’s session may let us know if we’re in a drawn out fight lasting day to weeks; or will the bulls reach exhaustion during the session.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As counter-intuitive as it sounds, for there to be a significant downside reversal in gold (GLD), the vast majority if not nearly all traders, speculators, and investors need to be on the wrong side of the trade.
Getting that crowd positioned without them realizing it, or being plain hypnotized like our asylum escapees, the gold bulls, helps get articles like this accepted by the masses.
The daily chart of gold proxy GLD, shows the potential target area for reversal.
This area has been a reversal target for months … since mid-September.
Working the markets in this way, that is, identifying a potential future condition for trend change, allows one to think about how it’s all going to go down.
Of course, consistent, incessant, propaganda along with bullish (asylum) hysteria is a must. 🙂
Just to be fair, sometimes and on a rare occasion, the crowd is right.
With that in mind, we’ll have to see how GLD price action behaves if/when it breaks through resistance.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The currently held belief is dollar collapse and gold to $3,000/oz.
Dollar (UUP) Analysis:
The daily chart of UUP may be painting a different scenario:
The dollar’s already in an up-trend. It just established support at the 23.6%, Fibonacci level. There was a bounce higher and then yesterday, penetration below support.
Now, in the pre-market, UUP is currently trading at 25.14 – 25.16, which is at or even above the support level.
A dollar reversal higher at this point, being a very shallow 23.6% retrace thus far, would potentially spell big trouble for gold and the miners.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, this morning’s action in gold (GLD) tells us, it’s not a bull market.
The asylum escapees (gold bulls) from yesterday, might paint today’s action as a buying opportunity.
Well, it could be a buying opportunity for short term trades (not advice, not a recommendation) but that’s not what this site is about.
Bull markets do not let you get aboard comfortably.
Case in point:
For those old enough to remember, harken back to the bull market launch of 1995.
Remember that?
It seemed like every day was up into new highs with nary a retracement until a year and a half later.
No, there’s something else going on with gold.
It may indeed continue to move lower from here. However, there’s a price action feel that’s not right.
GLD:
Potential Coup D’état Set-Up ?
Those who own the gold market(s) know full well, there’s a bunch of rabid ‘collapse’ types who believe the metal’s their salvation ticket out of events to come.
Those in control, need to get as many as possible on the wrong side of the trade before there can be a sustained long-term (or fast and sharp) down move.
Such a move, if it goes low enough and fast enough, would likely take out the majority of the ‘stacking’ community.
Looking at the un-marked chart of gold (GLD), just where would that location be … where everyone, except the few, are positioned incorrectly?
As discussed previously, the area shown below would be a good location for an up-thrust (reversal) condition.
In addition, that location’s between the 38% and 50%, retrace level(s) from August 2020, to March 2021.
One can speculate on just what would cause or enable a last-gasp push higher above the GLD 171, level.
Well, for starters, how about a massive volcanic eruption that results in long-term destruction on both sides of the Atlantic.
As Dan (I Allegedly) says with his post just out, ‘the economy is in a perfect storm’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As is typical for this site, we’ll let the bulls duke it out with the bears. We’ll wait and see if we’re at a reversal point (trend-line) or if we’re headed to up-thrust condition.
If GLD breaks the trend-line, getting back to the 170 – 171, level (up-thrust), imagine the hysteria. 🙂
Lastly, Biotech (LABD):
First: Did we exit LABD?
Answer is No (not advice, not a recommendation)
Second: Why?
The price action thrusts below support that have been reported in prior posts were indeed spring set-ups.
However, it’s obvious now, they were not THE set-up.
The chart shows LABD has met an ‘a-b-c’ measured move target.
The idealized form of an ‘a-b-c’ corrective move, is shown with the blue lines and notations:
At this juncture, wave ‘a’ net distance traveled, is equal to ‘c’ and wave ‘b’ net distance, is about 50% the length of wave ‘a’.
These measurements are typical for ‘a-b-c’.
Positioning:
My firm’s main position is still showing a good profit and we’re going to maintain short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, as with GDX being at the danger point before its rally, so too is biotech at the danger point (prior to a potential decline).
Expectations are for LABD to retrace higher from current levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
How many of our YouTube ‘stackers’ are chess players?
A quick check of three popular (randomly picked) ‘stacking’ YouTubers, has one showing his intro with a pile of silver being stacked under the floor.
The other has ‘trinkets’ on her desk and supposed collectibles behind her.
The other has gone as far to say, the reason gold and silver are not going higher, is because of the public itself.
No overt reference to chess or any reference to chess play as a means of addressing market conditions.
They may indeed have knowledge but they’re not showing it as a matter of course.
If memory serves, one of Richard Denis’ interview questions to his potential ‘Turtle’ trader(s) was whether he (she) played chess.
Take look at the host site’s business logo (Three Ten Trading, LLC) and we’ll leave the discussion there.
It’s the author’s opinion, the ‘stacker’ sites are in the business of getting more business; not analyzing the markets with any high level of thought or seriousness.
However, they might have a purpose.
It’s possible, they fulfill the ‘bread and circuses’ void that’s the hallmark of an empire’s collapse; which brings us to the situation at hand.
This ‘collapse’ we’re in, is a process not an event.
As we continue on, it’s becoming clear that single-mindedly stockpiling inedible metal in hopes of surviving what’s here now, and what’s coming, is a major (if not potentially fatal) blunder.
The players on this global chess board are making their moves and then counter moves.
Case in point is Southwest Airlines cancellations and shutdown.
Southwest Airlines:
The company has made its move.
The employees countered with their move. Perhaps even more importantly, they did it with bravery.
It’s likely, a large part of them, if not all (who are not showing up for work) will eventually be terminated.
It’s also reasonable to think when they made their move, they understood full well, the potential (termination) outcome.
Economic Shutdown:
As ZeroHedge reports, what if more corporations experience similar (employee walk-out) events?
What if it’s a mass exodus?
Is anybody really ready to walk or ride their bike … even a horse, to work because there’s no fuel at the gas station?
If there’s no fuel, there are no deliveries of any kind.
A check of the Home Depot, in this area has it relatively stocked in the garden section.
However, from a personal standpoint, after checking the local Tractor Supply, there’s no Jobe’s (organic) fertilizer to be found at either site (save the one torn bag at Home Depot).
The shelves are empty … for that item at least.
Mass Psychological Shift
Remember our example of herd behavior? That it can turn on a dime; doing it instantly across thousands of miles?
Storable food is running low. What about seeds and fertilizer?
Genesis 41
What happens when the public realizes all-at-once, it’s the food supply that’s not ever (in quantity) coming back?
Suppose they collectively decide (rightly or wrongly), the ‘stackers’ are just another herd of followers.
That it was all yet another lie; a diversion away from the real problem.
Silver and gold are great if you already have it.
However, this site’s sticking to the Biblical, Genesis 41, world view.
That is, corn and grain (food) come first. Then, gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
Remember, Joseph was paid first (for grain) with money (i.e., the silver stack).
When the money was exhausted, livestock was used.
When that ran out, the people sold themselves into slavery to obtain food.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Just like the biotech sector intentionally euthanizing (a polite word for what’s really happening) its customer base, here we have another entity calling out its own followers as the problem.
It’s similar to the rabid, mindless, one-way (only goes up) gold bulls crying ‘it’s all rigged’, when their pathetic attempts at analysis don’t work out; we now have another entity citing YOU as the problem when the forecasts fall flat.
This is yet another so-called financial source that can be permanently crossed off the watch list.
Brutal, But Beneficial:
Admittedly, the ‘tone’ of the posts on this site are not for everyone.
Even mild-mannered Dan at I Allegedly, finds himself responding to snowflakes that complain about his ‘get ready’ posts.
There’s good reason why the average are so ignorant.
For those who were actually listening in middle-school, the history books conveniently leave out the part where millions of Americans died of starvation during the Great Depression.
No pictures of emaciated bodies. Nothing.
With what’s coming, we’re likely headed for mass casualties in one form or another. The financial community refuses (from what I’ve seen) to discuss this up-coming event.
For example:
If you’re still using a ‘financial advisor’ and they’re not talking about, or don’t know about the elephant, do you really want to be (paying for and) taking direction from someone who’s that lazy, fearful, or ignorant?
Prechter, said it himself when he stated, the next mega bear market’s going to wipe out the ‘wealth management’ industry.
We may be on the cusp of that now.
Not Advice:
With that said, this site does not, and will not give financial advice.
Each person has his (her) own situation in life. You are the one to decide on your next direction or action.
What this site does do, is attempt to provide analysis and supporting price action data on what’s really going on.
What’s the market saying about itself?
If you’re still reading, that was a very long intro to get to our topic for the day: Gold miners, GDX.
Wyckoff Analysis: Senior Miners, GDX
What we see from the weekly chart is straightforward.
GDX, has been channeling lower for about a year:
The next chart shows we’ve penetrated support and are now testing the underside.
Of note: GDX is in ‘spring’ position. An upward attempt is to be expected.
If GDX was to break out and start a sustained bull move, this would be the spot. We’re at the danger point.
In my view, the participants in this sector are borderline delusional, if not completely insane.
They disregard what the market’s actually doing; holding to a (so far, for years now) unverified belief that ‘$10,000/oz gold, is just around the corner.’
It could very well be … but only after the (possibly, soon to be) starving stackers have sold off their hoard to buy food.
One has to wrap their mind around the fact, we’re being subjected to a long term diabolical plan.
Thinking and acting with that long game in mind (in my view) provides at least a hope for not only survival, but positioning to prosper during the on-going collapse.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It seems that its been going on forever we’ve heard phrases like: ‘dollar destruction’, ‘gold’s going to $10,000,/oz’., ‘rampant inflation’, ‘hyperinflation’ and on.
It takes a very flexible mind (technically termed, “neural plasticity”) to be able to wrap itself around and understand the diabolical agenda being played out before us.
The good news is, Wyckoff analysis cuts through all the lies.
Now past a century old, this technique has stood the test of time.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 