Category Archives: IYR

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

ProLogis … Stretched to Breaking?

February 16, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-06, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT

Reversal and Test

The last update on ProLogis link here, said we had ‘evidence of a struggle’.

That struggle made one more attempt to move higher, posted a new daily high, then reversed.

In the process, real estate IYR, reversed as well; bonds, TLT, closed lower for the week (rates higher).

That brings us back to ProLogis.

ProLogis PLD, Daily Close

The labels correspond to the following S: Spring, U: Up-Thrust, T: Test

With this type of set-up, the expectation is for PLD, to post lower right along with real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & DOGE

February 14, 2025 By in DOGE, DRV, DRV-25-06, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, IYR, Real Estate, SILJ, SLV

Gold-to-Silver Ratio 90:1

It certainly is a big number, link here.

The assumption these days, is silver’s ‘along for the ride’.

What ‘ride’?

Does anybody (thinking) think, silver and its green energy grift will survive a DOGE attack?

Asking for a friend. 🙂

Of course, just moments after the article linked above comes out, silver spikes and then gets mercilessly whacked.

The miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ reversed as well.

Silver SLV, Daily

If there’s going to be a continued move higher, then price action must exceed today’s high.

It’s at least a ‘line in the sand’ to prove the bears wrong (not advice, not a recommendation).

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, real estate (IYR) reversed to the downside

Discussion on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Big-Cap, ProLogis … Reversal

February 9, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, PLD, Positions, TLT, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Evidence of a Struggle

Insight from the masters, Wyckoff and Weis.

When at a (significant) trend reversal, we want to see ‘evidence of a struggle’.

Looking at ProLogis PLD (largest Cap and weight, in IYR), that’s exactly what we see.

Exhaustion and (potential) reversal.

ProLogis PLD, Daily

Between the two blue lines is a resistance zone.

Note how each subsequent day (after the magenta arrow) is losing energy … or is a series of energy losses.

With prior updates here, and here, probabilities suggest continued (PLD, IYR) downside or possible sideways action (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

When The Analysis is ‘Wrong’

February 8, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, DRV, DRV-25-01, DRV-25-04, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff Tags: ,

‘In Slow’ … ‘Out Fast’ (Dr. Elder)

The last update on ProLogis, PLD, proved to be (somewhat) incorrect.

There was no definitive assessment on direction, but from the sidebar, one could see an open short position in sector index IYR, as DRV-25-01.

That short was closed nearly immediately at the next session as PLD, ratcheted higher along with IYR.

Since we’re at ‘-04’, increment on DRV, there have been four attempts to position short with DRV-25-04, currently open (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gain/loss (all positions) is near break-even, at -0.38%

All of which brings us to ProLogis … again.

ProLogis, PLD, Daily

There’s a lot going on in this chart.

The last earnings release for PLD, resulted in a wide bar on heavy volume.

Nearly instantly, and from a Wyckoff standpoint, we should know what that means … or what is probable:

The wide bar, volume, are likely to be ‘tested’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next update, we’ll discuss the Up-Thrust (reversal) condition for PLD.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

First, Real Estate … Now, Bonds

February 7, 2025 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-25-04, Interest Rates, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Rates, Back on The Rise

Yesterday, was the reversal set-up for real estate (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it’s bonds

The bond chart below shows TLT, in a near-perfect trading channel.

Long Bonds TLT, Weekly

In addition to the channel, there’s a Fibonacci time correlation.

Or course, this could be the week (or next) where bonds break out to the upside.

Anything can happen.

For now, price action remains in the down-channel.

The next item shows we’re potentially at some kind of transition point.

Retail, ‘All-In’

Behind the scenes, reports like this, tell us the ‘retail investor’, i.e., the least informed and least disciplined participant is literally, ‘all-in’ the market.

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Reversing Now

February 6, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-04, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust

If The High (for the day) Holds

For those monitoring this site on a daily basis, it’s at the point where you know (or almost know) what’s coming next.

Over several years, the set-ups have been clearly laid out.

One in particular, the basis for most of the trades, is this: link here.

With that in mind, we have real estate, IYR.

The last update hinted that a reversal may be ‘imminent’.

Well, it’s been several weeks. So far, nothing … until today.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The set-up (Spring-to-Up-Thrust) is obvious (not advice, not a recommendation).

The ‘risk’ on a short position is the high for the day.

At the time the screen shot was taken, that ‘risk’ amounted to 0.64-pts.

It’s not a contest to ‘be right’. It’s an effort to ‘minimize risk’.

Positioned short via DRV, as DRV-25-04, stop at session low, 26.25 (not advice, not a recommendation).

As this post is being created (11:27 a.m., EST) IYR, is starting the retrace some of the early session downside.

It could be a quick day-trade exit if the stop is hit; we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Rout … Dead Ahead?

January 26, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, DRV, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Nasdaq, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, SPY 1 Comment

Break, Test … and … Pause

Of course, in the markets, no one knows for sure.

However, what we do know as shown below, real estate IYR, has formed a terminating wedge.

In addition, it’s broken down from that wedge and is now testing the underside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

With the Dow, S&P, and QQQs, at or near all-time-highs, real estate’s a laggard; posting its all-time-high, years ago.

Last week was a narrow-range bar.

On a daily basis, price action attempted to move higher twice and has retreated (from that attempt) each time.

Then, The Fed

Let’s not forget we have a Fed meeting coming up on Tuesday and Wednesday, this week.

Popcorn at the ready.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate, Odds in Your Favor

January 18, 2025 By in DRV, DRV-25-01, IYR, PLD, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Contact Points

The last update showed the possible (downside) reversal set-up for real estate sector, IYR.

This update shows the largest cap equity in that sector (source, TC2000), ProLogis, PLD, and its current position.

ProLogis, PLD, Weekly

We’ve had essentially sideways action for over two years; trading between (approx.) 90 – 130.

In the past three months, price action has established what looks to be a downtrend and possibly a trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note the relatively heavy (upside) volume from last week, the green bar.

In Wyckoff terms, that volume is potential ‘effort vs. reward’, or exhaustion if PLD, continues lower from here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279