Category Archives: LABD

‘When’s the next Bear Market?’

August 17, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, Jerimiah Babe, LABD, Livermore, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

9:47 a.m., EST

ZeroHedge Report Acts Like It’s Not Here

Jerimiah Babe says “Have You Looked Outside?”

If the mainstream media is good for anything, it’s the ability to keep the herd, the retail, (Robinhood kids, et al.) fully distracted until it’s absolutely too late for action.

Even though this report from ZeroHedge gives all kinds of ‘signals’ saying we’re not there yet; It even goes as far as showing there’s no yield curve inversion. Of course that means ‘no risk’ of bear market.

Then going on to say, ‘None of these measures indicate a bear market is near’. I mean, you can’t make this stuff up.

What’s the table above (yesterday’s close) say about what’s really going on?

At this point it’s obvious the media are not going to discuss the on-going bear market in biotech, SPBIO.

Doing so, would require some kind of investigation as to why? That would open Pandora’s box and have everyone digging for truth … something to be avoided (censured) at all costs.

Amateurs always want (need) to know why.

Livermore was never concerned with the why. He looked for ‘what’. What is the price action doing now or what is it likely to do.

As Wyckoff said, ‘the why always comes out later … after the fact’

‘Why’ is a useless trading strategy.

However, in the case of biotech, we can take a good guess what the ‘why’ is all about.

Fall and Winter are very close now. As this interview with Stew Peters reveals, Fall and Winter are when we get the real picture of ‘side effects’.

Biotech is ahead of the pack on the downside and for good reason.

Positioning:

Positions have not changed except for additions of LABD as SPBIO declines and LABD heads higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

As a reminder, this site’s not interested in day trading or even swing trading unless that’s all the market offers.

No, we’re interested in positioning strategically.

This type of trading is modeled after the host’s twenty-four years of experience with aircraft flight test and certification.

A typical project would take five to seven years to complete; have a near infinite number of complex stages along the way with each one a profession unto itself.

At this juncture, biotech may be poised for the largest implosion ever seen in market history.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Pivots @ Day 34

August 16, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, LABD, SPBIO, Stew Peters 1 Comment

3:10 p.m., EST

Today’s Action Confirms Time Sequence

Inverse biotech fund LABD confirms Friday’s update that ‘Day 34’ (from the June 28th low) could be a pivot point.

There’re at least four contact points on the left trend line shown above.

That line has been copied and moved to the right of the chart; showing a potential contact.

Stew Peters does another fantastic job accessing the truth with one of his latest interviews.

Interesting but then again, maybe not;

I’ve never seen such an on-going event result in so many people using Biblical standards to ether describe the battle, or to say this could be it. We need to keep our lampstands ready.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Russell … Rolling Over

August 14, 2021 By in Biotech, Dow 30, Holiday Turns, IWM, IYR, LABD, Oil, QQQ, Russell 2000, S&P, S&P 500, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, USO, Van Metre

Bearish Wedge Poised To Break Down

The Russell 2000 (IWM as proxy) has been congesting sideways for about five months.

While the overall markets, S&P, Dow, SOXX, IYR and the QQQs, have been moving on to new highs … the Russell has stagnated.

Taking a cue from Steven Van Metre’s reports on ‘who goes first’ in a downturn, it’s the small caps.

At this juncture, it looks like the Russell’s ready.

The six month daily chart of IWM below, shows choppy action.

Pulling back somewhat and labeling the bearish wedge, puts it into perspective (second chart):

Pulling out and labeling the wedge:

One item of note (not shown) at the top of the wedge, where price action pivoted lower (August 6th), is a Fibonacci 62%, retrace level.

So, we have a bearish wedge retracing 62% … along with non-confirmation of the overall highs; S&P, Dow, SOXX, etc.

Major reversals take a long time to form. However, once they get underway, it’s like a juggernaut to the bottom.

Harkening back to the oil (USO) bear market of 2014, nearly all (if not all) the YouTuber’s at the time, completely missed the bearish set-up.

What they did instead, once the downdraft started, was pump out update after update about ‘catching the bottom and setting up for the new bull market in oil’.

It never happened.

Oil continued lower for a year and a half before getting into a sideways range.

The big money’s in the big move. Monitoring the Russell provides confirmation a significant reversal’s in the works (not advice, not a recommendation).

As with biotech (SPBIO), already in a bear market, the IWM could break lower while the overall markets continue to thin-out and even make new highs.

Recall, we’re getting close to an up-coming holiday: Labor Day

The 1929, high was on the Tuesday just after Labor Day weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Tracks Fibonacci

August 13, 2021 By in Biotech, IBB, LABD, SPBIO 1 Comment

12:20 p.m., EST

Biotech SPBIO and Inverse LABD In Fibonacci Sequence

Today is Fibonacci Day, 34

Like a metronome ticking away, keeping time, so too has the SPBIO index and inverse fund LABD.

From a personal anecdote situation, I’ve never seen an index hit every Fibonacci Day with an inflection point … all the way up to today: 34 Days.

To get to the analysis, we’ll start first with an unmarked daily chart of inverse fund LABD, below:

Pivots from the June 28th, low are in Fibonacci sequence:

If today is a reversal or subsequent pivot … verified by next week’s price action, LABD’s exhibiting an incredible adherence to Fibonacci time.

This can only happen if nobody’s watching.

As soon as traders/speculators catch on that something’s afoot, the sequence diffuses into chaos; that may or may not come back to order at a later date.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech Breaking Down

August 11, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, David Stockman, David Weis, IBB, LABD, SPBIO, Van Metre

10:57 a.m., EST

SPBIO, Biotech Verifies Channel

Inverse LABD, Moving Higher

Biotech (IBB, MRNA, SPBIO): Analysis

Looking over the updates of the past few weeks, you can see how the LABD channel (above) was formed.

The trend has repeated with successive moves higher and the right side channel line moved as a result of price action.

At this point, we may be there.

If LABD closes the day at its current location or higher, it’s a good sign of channel confirmation.

In addition, we have Moderna (MRNA) in the process of penetrating the trendline shown in yesterday’s update. If price action continues lower (as it’s doing in the early session), it could be on track to post a weekly reversal.

Separately, the IBB (ETF) index is already posting a weekly reversal. From a momentum standpoint, the new weekly high of IBB, has put that index in a potential bearish (MACD) divergence provided it closes lower from here for the week.

Positioning:

The bearish case has been building even back to David Stockman’s assessment of ‘2-Trillion Dollars of Bottled Air’, during the summer of 2015.

However, Stockman does not trade. So, to figure out if ‘this is it’, is not in his repertoire.

With current events as they are, one can intuitively conclude the fundamentals have not improved for the sector.

The backdrop is there for significant downside.

With that in mind my firm remains positioned max short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Any selling in LABD that’s occurred over the past month or so, was to adjust account(s) for maintenance (margin) requirements.

Once the index was finished with its adverse (SPBIO, higher, LABD lower) moves, we’re right back to establishing a full position.

This type of action has been going on for months.

It’s tedious and not exciting; exactly the opposite of what a typical YouTube viewer is looking for.

As a corollary, there’s no artificial (and profit limiting) requirement to show ‘Monthly’, Quarterly’ or whatever gains, to retail customers.

The financial press takes care of the retail side.

Some (very few) actually escape; finding themselves on sites like Van Metre’s, Weis’, and this one.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

‘Sitting Tight’

August 3, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Speck

12:32 p.m., EST

Livermore: ‘Get right and sit tight’

Inverse biotech fund LABD, in trading channel

A steady sustained decline of tracking index SPBIO, is the best environment for highly leveraged (3X-inverse) fund LABD.

Biotech continues to be one of, if not the downside leader.

There has been no major break lower (LABD higher) that would draw attention to the index. That’s good in a way; it allows one to open positions (not advice, not a recommendation) while price action is relatively quiet.

It’s still a while before the close. LABD could even finish slightly lower and remain in the trading channel shown above.

Self-Employment Is Key:

It’s stories like this that highlight one way (if not the only way) to avoid being sucked into the first round of injections is to generate your own income.

It seems that everyone jumps on the bandwagon and tells us ‘how bad it is’ … very few do the work and show what can be done about the current reality.

From a financial market perspective, shorting biotech looks like the highest probability set-up (not advice not a recommendation) until such time that price action says ‘get out’.

So, that’s this site’s approach to generating income and being separate from any large (mandate enforcing) corporation.

‘Knock and Talk’

One last note on taking action. This is an example; offering a perspective on what can be done if there is a knock at the door.

Narrow your focus of ‘influencers’ to those who actually provide a service. Reduce or eliminate exposure to those who continue to peddle the fear without any kind of plan.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Market Summary

August 2, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, DIA, DJUSBM, Dow 30, GLD, GOLD, IBB, IWM, IYM, LABD, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY

Dow, S&P, Russell … all outside down

Three markets with key reversals and the biotech sector (SPBIO) posting an inside day.

One other (less followed) market of note with outside down, was basic materials (DJUSBM).

Gold’s (GLD) upward thrust from Thursday the 29th, continues to erode.

One gets the sense that it’s slipping away for the bulls.

SPBIO price action shows the most probable direction is lower.

Expectation for the next session, is for some kind of downside follow-through along with lower market action overall.

Positions:

Current positioning remains unchanged (not advice, not a recommendation) being short the biotech sector via LABD.

Market updates for the week will be limited (as the result of travel) and will resume with technical discussions by the week-end.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Downside Leader

July 31, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO

SPBIO Down More Than 29%, From Highs

The marked chart below, shows support penetration, test and reversal.

If testing’s complete and there’s no more upward action in the coming week, SPBIO looks to be on its way to much lower levels.

Recall, that price leads the news.

If there’s a major break lower, we’ll have the corresponding news item(s) as the ‘reason’ for the break.

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech: Black Swan, Trigger?

July 30, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, SPBIO

9:17 a.m., EST

SPBIO: Downside Channel

Inverse Fund LABD, Higher

The daily close chart of inverse biotech LABD (above), has price action in a tight channel … trending higher (SPBIO, lower).

At nearly 500,000 views in just two days, this interview, on rumble, continues to build the fundamental case for either a biotech collapse, economic collapse, societal collapse or all three.

Update (10:05 a.m., EST): rumble interview nearing 520,000 views. An increase of 30,000 in just 18-hours.

Whether or not the LABD trading channel will continue to be in-effect, is unknown.

What is known however, what increases each day; this sector, unlike any other, has an unprecedented world-wide fundamental (criminal) backdrop.

The pundits, analysts, all looking for the trigger event … the black swan.

None of them are saying biotech could be that trigger.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Run fast … or, Not at all

July 28, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, Dr. Elder, IBB, LABD

3:48 p.m., EST

Biotech ‘Gut-Check’

One of Dr. Elder’s admonitions was: ‘Run fast or not at all’ when confronted with retracing price action.

The trade plan from months ago, concerning the biotech short (not advice not a recommendation), was that potential for collapse was so great, the trade was going to be maintained (and increased) until it either worked out for profit or the price action was so obvious that ‘now, was not the time’.

If there ever was a time in the past five-weeks for SPBIO bulls to take back control, this is it.

However, to prove they’ve got the upper hand, inverse fund LABD would have to make a new weekly low … at least.

That (low) has yet to happen.

The inverse LABD tape is a sea of red and purple; at the bid, below the bid, mass selling … having the look of capitulation by the bears.

It’s possible we’ll know more over the next few days.

At this juncture, LABD price action is testing a support-boundary area while also testing the right side weekly trend line.

Marked charts are below:

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.