Category Archives: Livermore

Health Care Implosion

May 13, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-01, Health Care, Livermore, Positions, XLV, XLV-25-03

Breakaway Gap(s)

For Health Care Sector XLV, it’s one downside gap after another.

While ‘retail’ is off buying some kind of supposed ‘dip’, we have a market that’s fractured:

Gold and silver once up, now down, healthcare down, dollar up (wasn’t it supposed to collapse already?), airlines up, biotech down, basic materials up, auto dealers down, then up … and on it goes.

Housekeeping

Before we get started, Carvana short (CVNA-25-01) was closed when this morning’s action posted a new daily high.

CVNA, may be headed to that ‘310’ area we’ve been discussing for several weeks (not advice, not a recommendation).

Health Care Sector XLV, Daily

The next chart shows the stop progression and trendline for short-trade XLV-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, the trade is progressing and price action ‘makes sense’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

There’s no telling how long the right-side trend will remain in-effect; so, the correct action as Jesse Livermore said years ago is, ‘Get right and sit tight’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Markets Implode !

April 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GLL, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-05, Livermore, Positions, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI

Is This It?

Those on this site daily, knew something was about to happen in a big way.

It was just, when.

Now, markets are volatile if not imploding.

Nearly all sectors reversing at once.

As of this post (10:55 a.m., EST), some of those are attempting to recover (GDX, GDXJ, SILJ) with others down hard (not advice, not a recommendation).

There were plenty of clues:

Massive volume increase in GLL, strange activity in biotech, then resignation at the FDA, failure of NVDA to get back to a 50% retrace, the list goes on.

As mentioned yesterday, one sector that’s continuing lower is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

There may be several trading channels in effect. Only the most aggressive (so far) is shown.

Note the locations of short positioning via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, the initial LABD short, entered on March 25th, is up over +40%.

Going Forward

So, what happens now?

For this trade, Livermore said it best (paraphrasing):

Position on the right side of the market (the correct direction), then wait.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

A.I. ‘Dominoes’, Start To Fall

February 24, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-08, SOXX, Wyckoff

Data-Center (lease) Cancellations

One of many to come?

The article at this link says the cancellation move was ‘unexpected’.

Clicking on ‘Artificial Intelligence’, (side-bar) and going back to August of ’23, with this post, then reading though subsequent posts, one can say the ‘cancellation’ was fully expected.

That August ’23, post has the link to Prechter’s analysis; we’re in the largest asset bubble in at least 300 years (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of that brings us to chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’ll cut straight to the chase (as of 11:35 a.m., EST).

A Fibonacci projection is overlaid starting from the all-time-high (1/7/25), to the recent lows (2/3/25), back up to test (2/18/25), then reversal, again.

Note how last Friday’s price action printed and closed near the 23.6, Fibonacci projection.

Positioning

Everyone has their own preference and style.

As stated in the ‘About‘ section, this site works to emulate behaviors of the three masters listed.

That, in addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have been mentored by the late David Weis, results in what’s available on this site.

With that said, positioning in the SOXX (the A.I. proxy) is short, via SOXS, as SOXS-25-08, initial entry link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: SOXS-25-08, stop to be moved to the day’s session low; currently 18.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Accelerates … Down

December 31, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-21, Livermore, SPBIO, XBI, ZeroHedge

A New Trendline?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, it’s like the Keystone Cops out there.

One side doesn’t think anything bad is going to happen.

The other side, says there’s an implosion coming, if not already here.

Yet another, somewhat honest, saying it doesn’t know but that it will be ‘messy’.

How about we just look at what the market’s actually telling us. That’s a novel idea. 🙂

Iterative Process

As the year comes to a close, it’s (now) obvious, what took place for most of 2024, was a process of iteration.

Working to position for the downside was not the question. Identifying the ‘best opportunity’, was.

Strategy Re-Cap:

Using Livermore’s insight, we assess ‘general conditions’.

With that, came the bearish stance. Then, what tuned out to be an iterative search for (short) opportunities.

That search culminated with trade LABD-24-21, still active (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We’re about two-hours before the close; XBI, has posted a new daily high, and low, threating with ‘outside down’.

We can see the potential ‘channel-within-a-channel’.

The Weeks, Ahead

The coming weeks may hint at what’s likely for the year.

If we don’t get a ‘January effect’ or it gets negated, that in itself gives us a bearish clue (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX, Has Spoken

November 11, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, Prechter, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX

Anyone Listening?

For the vast majority, the answer is, ‘probably not’.

For the tiny fraction monitoring these updates, we should be getting the uneasy feeling, the (major) pivot downward in the SOXX, may have just started (not advice, not a recommendation).

Painstaking Detail

Over the past several months, presented on this site, the assessment that A.I., ‘artificial intelligence’, is just another mania in a long line of manias, going way back to the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s; reference posts or links here, here, and here.

The trick is, and has been, what to do?

One Man’s Approach

If I had to summarize my approach to the current situation, it would be to model Mr. Partridge (a.k.a. ‘Turkey’) from the book, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

That is, get into position, minimize transactions, stay there until the market says otherwise (not advice, not a recommendation).

That’s what’s being done; trade labeled: SOXS-24-20.

For additional reference, click on that number in the sidebar to see all related posts.

Election Reaction Complete

Based on SOXX, price action itself, it’s possible the upward blip from last Tuesday’s events has run its course.

If that’s true, we can get back to the (potential) implosion of the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post (11:41 a.m., EST) the SOXX, has retraced nearly every bit of last week’s up-move.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trading The ‘Crash Channel’

November 9, 2024 By in 1907, 2000 - 2001, Artificial Intelligence, Dr. Elder, Elliott Wave, Great Depression 2.0, Livermore, QQQ, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-20, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘The Big Money’s in, The Big Move’ … Dr. Elder

The whole quote from Elder (paraphrasing):

‘The big money is in the big move but only the top-tier trader or speculator has the ability and skill to trade it…’

This ‘big money’ idea is exactly what Jesse Livermore figured out as part of his plan after years of making ‘piking bets’ on minor price fluctuations.

Ultimately, his method was to anticipate events about to happen in a ‘big way’.

He netted over $1 million, during the Panic of 1907, probably his best example of trading the big move.

Note: $1-mil, in 1907, is about $32-mil, today.

Here’s a chart of the ‘Panic‘.

Look how similar it is, to the chart of the QQQ bubble and the current position of the SOXX; except the (potential) wipe-out, of course. 🙂

Back at the 2000, bubble top in the Qs, we have the following.

Nasdaq QQQ, Weekly

Several trading channels can be identified; the most aggressive, is the one shown.

The channel above, lasted nearly three-months, from week-ending 1/26/01, to week-ending 4/6/01.

Note that price action rose for about three weeks in a ‘January Effect’ at the beginning of ’01, before rolling over in a big way.

There’s a lot going on in this chart. For example, the January effect rise took the Qs back to a Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace of the entire down move.

Strategy

The coming days and weeks are going to let us know if the SOXX, is modeling the mania bubbles of the past (not advice, not a recommendation).

A possible important distinction: In the prior update, the SOXX, had two massive down-thrusts, not just one.

One could even argue there were three (week ending 7/19/24).

Does that mean we’re at an order of magnitude larger on what comes next?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Bearish Divergence (again)

October 5, 2024 By in Dollar, Dr. Elder, Gold & Silver, Livermore, serpentza, SLV, UUP Tags: , , , ,

Has Our Hyperinflation ‘Nutcase’ Escaped?

Well, ladies and gentlemen, here we are.

We’re about to find out if silver (SLV), is headed for a breakout, sideways congestion and/or, outright reversal.

In a world that seems to be allergic to the truth (as serpentza, put it), we’re going to do just that; look at the truth, the price action itself.

The last update, link here, said to watch for an SLV, breakout that could fail, confirming a bearish divergence.

From the intro line, here we are.

We have the breakout.

All that’s missing is continuation higher or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, let’s go to the truth of the matter, the SLV chart.

Silver SLV, ETF, Daily

Years ago, Dr. Elder stated, when MACD histogram and MACD lines are parallel (bearish divergence), it’s a rare occurrence.

The coming week might be the deciding factor.

Before we leave this post, let’s throw in a bonus and consider the dollar ‘collapse’ narrative.

Dollar ‘Collapse’, Where?

Below is an updated chart of the dollar index.

Note the arrow to this link, posted nearly four years ago!

Dollar Index UUP, Weekly

It’s important to note, at the time the ‘Reversal Ready’ post was created, there was absolutely no-one (that was known) indicating the dollar index was headed significantly higher.

This is what’s meant by ‘Strategy’ in the About section.

Livermore was focused on what’s going (or likely) to happen in a big way.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi Industry at Risk?

October 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Potential Bottleneck

‘Surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’; Jesse Livermore

The potential all-time high (reversal) for Nvidia along with the A.I. bubble, was identified here and here.

If that analysis holds (it is, so far), we’re either in sideways congestion or outright reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Funny Thing Happened

If its reversal, that’s when funny things start to happen.

Like the only ultra-pure quartz mining operation in the world; used for semiconductors, possibly knocked off-line.

That kind of funny.

This article, link here, details potential risk to the semi-industry.

It doesn’t look like the semis’ are waiting around to find out.

The SOXX, just opened lower, currently trading lower (as of 9:42 a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If yesterday was the (up-thrust) test, it was on contracting volume when compared to September 26th’s, resistance penetration.

With this post coming out just before the open on the 27th, the implication was, a short position was about to be opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Entry in SOXS, was at 18.87, early in the session on the 27th; hard stop @ 18.60, the day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled SOXS-24-17.

Speculator’s Notes

The objective here is not necessarily to be ‘right’, but to minimize the risk.

With a ‘risk’ (distance between entry and stop) of just 0.27-points, a sizeable position can be opened.

Example. A ‘risk’ of $1,000 means position size is around 3,700 shares of SOXS.

At yesterday’s closing price (20.25), the position of 3,700 shares, would now be up a modest but decent $5,100.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Fibonacci, & The Tape

September 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, Livermore, Loeb, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Reversal of Significance

Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.

In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s more to this story.

As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).

Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂

The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.

Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb

The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:

Strategy, Tactics and Focus.

Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.

Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.

Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’

We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fixing Errors

For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.

As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.

This is how should be done.

Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279