Category Archives: Real Estate

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 30, 2022 By in Bonds, David Weis, GLD, GOLD, IYR, Real Estate, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TLT, TSLA, Wyckoff 3 Comments

What To Watch … Bonds, Gold, Real Estate, Tesla

Bonds:

Last Friday, the bond reversal posted a shallow retrace.

We’re looking for upside follow-through at the next session.

Gold:

If gold (GLD) closes below 154.67, on Monday, it will be seven consecutive down months.

Momentum has slowed to a potential inflection point.

Real Estate:

If bonds move higher, real estate may follow. We have potential targets and Fibonacci timeframes.

Tesla:

This update, said to watch if/when TLSA, broke below support.

It did just that during the following week but now, it’s hesitating.

As a result, we have a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

Now, on to the charts.

Long Bond TLT, 30-minute

We’re drilling down to the 30-minute.

The blue line is Fibonacci 23.6%. Price action (at this point) shows the beginning of a move higher from that level.

Moving decisively higher at the next session, puts the terminating wedge into play, shown here.

If we get a wedge breakout, then we have a measured move target in the vicinity of TLT, 115.00.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Chart

A close below 154.67, on Monday, would put GLD, at seven consecutive down months.

GLD, has never closed lower seven consecutive months; not since inception, on 11/18/04.

Gold remains in a down-channel that’s a Fibonacci 13-Weeks wide.

Last week’s move helped to re-confirm the channel.

That action is itself, a Fibonacci 34-Weeks from the ‘changing of hands‘ high, during week-ending, 3/11/22.

However, momentum of price action has slowed.

If there’s going to be a break to the upside, this would be the place; otherwise, watch for continued GLD downside.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

If bonds continue their upside reversal with rates lower, we can expect real estate IYR, to have some type of ‘dead cat’ bounce.

If so, how long and how high.

An infinite number of scenarios are possible. However, the chart of IYR, shows what to expect for two of those possibilities.

Real Estate IYR, Weekly

The uptrend (blue line) has been decisively broken. What has not yet happened, is a ‘test’ of that break.

Shown are potential tests; Week 8 (from 10/14/22, lows), at Fibonacci 38%, and Week 13, at 50%.

Between ‘Week 8’ and ‘Week 13’, is the December Fed meeting … a possible catalyst.

Tesla (TSLA) Weekly

This one seems a bit far-fetched but here it is, anyway.

If bonds rally, the rest of the market may also rally; that could include our chief cook and bottle washer, Tesla.

Price action bounced at support and penetrated it several times before printing outside-up on the weekly (twice).

By definition, it’s a Wyckoff spring set-up.

A spring tends to go straight into an up-thrust; a repeating pattern, shown on the chart at around TSLA, 315.

Set-ups can also fail … so, we’ll be watching this one closely.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal Targets

October 29, 2022 By in Bonds, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Trade or Strategic

It’s either a short-term trade or a strategic reversal.

On the strategic reversal side is this just out from ZeroHedge.

‘Inflation’ may have peaked; where have we heard that before.

However, the charts presented in that link, do show we’re at an extreme.

If we look at the TLT, price action itself, which is impulsive down, we’ll go with the short-term first (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that, Friday may have been the ‘test’ from our capitulation model.

The weekly chart of bonds TLT, shows the anticipated up-tick in MACD, as well as the measured move target from the terminating wedge.

Long Bond, TLT, Weekly

Note, the wedge has not (yet) broken to the upside … we’re still at The Danger Point®, where the trade could fail.

If we look at the daily chart, probabilities point higher.

Long Bond, TLT, Daily

If this past Friday was the ‘test’ of the move, the retrace was a very weak Fibonacci 23.6%.

A new daily high in the next session(s), will help to confirm we’re headed higher.

Positions, Market Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

TMF-22-01:

Entry @ 6.705, 7.166***, Stop @ 6.68

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Summary

If bonds continue to move higher, with rates heading lower, what’s going to happen to real estate, IYR ?

The wheels of the real estate crash have already been set in motion. If bonds rise, rates fall and IYR moves higher, there are specific targets to watch for short opportunities.

We’ll discuss those targets and more, in the next ‘The Market Set-Up … This Week’

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Capitulation ‘Model’

October 26, 2022 By in Bonds, GLD, Gold & Silver, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF, TMF-22-01, Van Metre 1 Comment

Using The Gold Market Example

First up is the (downside reversal) analysis of the real estate market.

It was wrong; at least for now.

There’s nothing wrong with being wrong … it’s being wrong and staying wrong, that’s the problem.

What appears to be correct so far, is the upside reversal in the bond market.

We’re going to look at another capitulation to get some idea of what to expect if indeed bonds have reversed.

This past April, the gold market (GLD) capitulated on the upside. At the time, it was quickly and correctly identified as a ‘changing of hands’.

Gold (GLD) Capitulation

From a strategic standpoint, gold has not looked back.

Down around 20% (although slightly higher in today’s pre-market), there seems to be no major catalyst to get a similar capitulation reversal.

Using that reversal model and looking at bonds, we’ll use the 3X Leveraged Fund TMF, as the example.

Leveraged funds accentuate market moves, sometimes giving a clearer picture.

Bonds (TLT) 3X Leveraged Bull Fund, TMF

As far as what might be behind a (sustainable) bond reversal, we have this report from Steven Van Metre.

Using The ‘Model’

Note in the GLD reversal, prices went lower for a while and then came back to ‘test’.

Using that, we can expect TLT, TMF, price action to rise for some (unknown) period of time; then come back to ‘test’, before continuing higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close …

October 24, 2022 By in David Weis, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Wyckoff

Inflection Point

This time, it’s the volume that’s important.

Most of the major indices finished higher today except for the miners, real estate and biotech.

The early session update said IYR, price action may be in a test of its up-thrust (reversal) from October 18th.

If that’s a valid assessment and it was a test, the volume is important.

Whether it’s an up-thrust or a spring, when the set-up gets tested, the volume gives additional clues.

What we’re looking for is when price action comes back to test, volume contracts.

If that happens, it means (with good probability) there’s no commitment to sustain prices at the test level.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The real estate situation may be about to get interesting.

Volume contraction is near-textbook.

This is one of the rare times, there’s a high probability expectation; that is, IYR price action resumes its downtrend (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session Update

October 24, 2022 By in Bonds, DRV, DRV-22-05, GLD, Positions, Real Estate, TLT, TMF 1 Comment

What’s Working … What’s Not

It’s early in the session at about 10:52 a.m., EST; the market itself is telling us where to look.

Gold (GLD) is heading lower as expected.

Bonds (TLT) did not island gap higher but are resuming their downtrend … very dangerous indeed.

Real estate opened gap higher (not expected) but then quickly reversed and is now trading lower.

This update will focus on real estate. That trade is still active (DRV-22-05), as explained below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

The briefest explanation for today’s action, is that we’re in a test of the up-thrust posted by IYR on October 18th.

Tests can pass or fail.

The close of today will be important along with tomorrow’s action as well.

Even if today closes lower, the test can still fail at the next session (or later) if today’s high is exceeded.

With that said, IYR is now at The Danger Point®

The DRV-22-05, trade remains active.

However, if IYR looks as if it’s going to post a higher close, a failure of the up-thrust may be in the works.

Subsequent position action is at the discretion of the trader (not advice, not a recommendation).

As of this post, IYR is pressuring lower, currently trading down – 0.21-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Market Set-Up … This Week

October 23, 2022 By in Bonds, Catherine Austin Fitts, DRV, DRV-22-05, GLD, Gold & Silver, IYR, Positions, Real Estate, Scott Walters, SLV, The Speck, TLT, TMF, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

What To Watch … Gold, Bonds, & Real Estate

First off, ‘Goldman‘ says melt-up.

Not to be outdone, we have this ‘me too’ melt-up article as well.

Let’s not forget, all the ‘Fed must do something’ rumors and feigned concern by its members.

If anyone really wants to know the big picture, the overall plan (a wide majority do not), this interview may be the best explanation to-date.

With all of that, we certainly could get some kind of rally in the coming week. We’ll let the price action speak for itself.

As a reminder, Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with press releases, rumors or ‘fundamentals’; Wyckoff himself, determined based on price action alone, they have no material effect on market movement.

In his words, ‘other forces are at work’, and it’s those forces that interest us.

Gold & Silver

As said in this update, gold (GLD) was just ‘ticks’ away from posting a new monthly low. In fact, it got just 0.24-pts, from a new low before rebounding.

Of course, each time we get any kind of rally in the metals, there’s the usual hysteria. Even though for the past seven months and counting, those rallies occur at lower and lower levels … i.e., a bear market.

Shown below, it’s in a trading channel with price action at the right-side channel line.

Gold (GLD) Weekly

The chart below gets closer-in.

From left-most contact point on the channel to the initial contact on the right side is a Fibonacci 13-weeks.

Also note, the weekly high posted at the center line is a Fibonacci 5-weeks from the left-most contact.

Highly emotional markets tend to adhere to Fibonacci until either the emotion wears off or ‘everybody’ recognizes the structure.

Obviously, to keep the channel intact, a lower open (and lower action) at the next session is needed.

Silver (SLV) has already been discussed in this update and this one.

Bond (TLT) Capitulation ?

Was this past Friday the day?

Gap-down trading on huge volume.

Looking at the daily chart of TLT below, Friday’s level of (down) volume has occurred only three times in the past three years.

Each time, there was a near immediate rebound or in the case of March 2021, the rebound came several weeks later.

Bonds (TLT) Daily

Moving in closer, we see the possibility of an ‘island-gap’ at the next open.

What could drive capital into the bond market?

Well, how about a ‘shock’ or continued market melt-down (not advice, not a recommendation).

A quick check of the local newsfeed (as of 12:45 p.m., EST) shows nothing on the horizon other than usual nuclear attack threats, power outages, child mutilation protests, marauding bears and the disarmament of Canadians.

Nothing to see here …

Real Estate

There is no mistake, events in real estate are happening at the fastest pace in recorded history.

As Scott Walters put it, over 10-million people bought into the ‘work from home’ hype and got themselves instantly (nearly) upside down in their transaction.

Now, the layoffs start.

Real Estate IYR, 3-Day Close

Zoom-in, on the channel

As the last update said, we’ll know soon enough if there is more upside or if last Friday was it, and the downdraft continues.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Set-Up Details … Real Estate

October 22, 2022 By in 1929, DRV, DRV-22-05, Economic Ninja, GDX, IBB, IWM, IYR, Positions, QQQ, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SLV, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

At A ‘Confluence’

The last update, posted late in the session, said with the upward bias provided by the sizable Op-Ex event, we can look for the weakest (or one of the weakest) sectors.

The chart below summarizes yesterday’s action:

Friday 10/21/22, Single Day Gains

Gold miners GDX, is the outlier at the top and real estate IYR, the outlier at the bottom.

Before anybody gets excited about ‘hyperinflation’, just a reminder; silver SLV’s, action has retraced to a weak 38.2% (chart not shown), as it was forecasted to do from last week’s update:

“Silver (SLV) is currently at support levels; therefore, some upward action (staying below SLV: 18.5) is normal behavior.”

Price action is the final arbiter; we’ll see what happens next.

Back to real estate.

Professional Wisdom: ‘The Crash’

We’re going to use the experience and insight provided by Scott Walters concerning the potential for real estate; that is, we’re in a world-wide event the scale of which, no one alive (and possibly, ever) has seen before.

The Economic Ninja has just seconded that opinion (time stamp 3:45) with his quote:

“Right now, we are in the greatest collapse since The Great Depression; and I believe it will be as severe, if not worse, sharper, faster, than what people experienced in 1929”.

So, what would that ‘collapse’ look like on a chart of real estate, IYR?

Ah, yes. That’s the hard part.

To take useful wisdom like that above, and somehow map it into potential market behavior.

For that, we’re going to use the Quarterly chart of IYR.

Real Estate IYR, Quarterly

There are still two months and one week left to go in the 4th, Quarter.

We’re at a confluence of price action as we’ll cover in the Hourly chart farther down; first, what’s the potential?

Here is one artist’s rendition (not advice, not a recommendation).

That puts it into perspective.

We may know at the very next open, if we’re pivoting higher or continuing the decline.

Butterfly In The Amazon

Of course, the market’s not going to tell anyone its next move. We have to decipher that (read the tape) ourselves.

Sometimes, as Wyckoff said a century ago … ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather is all that’s needed, to push the market further or to reverse.’

So, let’s look at that feather (the butterfly) on the hourly chart.

Since we’re positioned short (DRV-22-05), the chart’s inverted to mimic leveraged inverse fund DRV.

Real Estate IYR, Hourly (Inverted)

The important part is we see a repeating pattern of trendlines.

Moving in closer, we have this. The blue arrow is ‘expected’ action based on the analysis up to this point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Moving even closer, the zoom shows IYR, finished the day in Wyckoff spring position; having pushed past minor support (resistance on non-inverted).

Summary

If IYR opens lower or gap-lower, we’ll have to wait and see if it posts a new daily low (below IYR ,77.24).

If that happens, we have some confirmation lower prices are ahead and can then set a definitive stop for DRV-22-05.

Obviously, a higher open (pushing past IYR 78.91), negates the trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … The Set-Up

October 21, 2022 By in Biotech, Dow 30, DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, Nasdaq, Positions, Real Estate, S&P, S&P 500, Scott Walters, SPBIO 1 Comment

Looking For The ‘Reversal’ To Fail

The $2-Trillion Op-Ex today, provided upward bias for the overall markets.

Not expected, was biotech SPBIO, to be part of that move.

After today and possibly because of this announcement, we’re out of the sector until price action demands attention.

While the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ were up significantly for the day, obviously absent, was real estate (IYR).

Days like today help narrow the focus. Who is not participating in the up move?

While the other indices are up multiple percentage points, IYR, finished the day up only +0.69%.

Real Estate (IYR) Weekly

The prior linked YouTube post from Scott Walters is not the premise for going short (not advice, not a recommendation).

It is, however, a reminder that what’s going on, is at a level no one has seen before.

Unless IYR, somehow gets out of the channel, it’s declining at -84%, annualized.

The set-up for this short trade (DRV-22-05) is based on a weak retrace (to 38.2%) on the daily with the anticipation, today’s reversal bar will ‘fail’ at the next session.

Real Estate, (IYR) Daily

The expectation for the next session is straightforward; lower open or gap-lower open and posting a new daily low.

The chart of IYR below, shows what we’re looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, a new daily high at the next session negates the set-up and warrants a trade exit.

A new daily low and we’ve got a ‘failure’ of the reversal bar; DRV-22-05, is liklely to be increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Position Changes

October 21, 2022 By in DRV, DRV-22-05, IYR, LABD-22-08, Positions, Real Estate, Scott Walters, SPBIO

Courtesy Update: 2:38 p.m., EST

Charts to be posted in a subsequent update.

Biotech is not behaving as expected; LABD-22-08, has been exited completely with an overall profit of about +8.5%.

We all know that real estate is in the largest bubble in U.S. history … and that’s not hyperbole.

With today’s upward bias in the market and IYR, not responding in kind (remaining weak), a position has been opened in leveraged inverse, DRV @ 74.53 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Price action in IYR, could still pressure somewhat higher into the close; thus, DRV would decline but the anticipation is if so, not by much.

Trade is labeled as DRV-22-05; stop is TBD, to be provided after the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate Crash … Exit Targets

October 11, 2022 By in DRV, DRV-22-04, Gold & Silver, IYR, LABD-22-08, Real Estate, SLV, SPBIO, zsl, ZSL-22-01

The DRV, Exit(s)

Well-calculated stops, (mostly) take care of trade implosion. So, where’s the exit?

The answer is there’s no set answer.

We’ll explain that by using the current plan for DRV-22-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Questions

First question to determine an exit in this case, is to ask:

“What are the media pundits, and/or ‘experts’ talking about right now?”

Well, that’s easy.

Just like the ‘silver squeeze’ idea that won’t go away (even as SLV continues downward), the ‘Fed pivot‘ is another delusion that keeps holding on.

As parts of the market (like IYR) continue their free-fall, all eyes are on the next Fed meeting; waiting for them to pivot and ‘save us’.

Right around November 1st, or 2nd, seems like it can’t help but be some kind of emotional cathartic set-up.

Unless stopped out ahead of time, the plan, is to plan an exit within that window.

Let’s go to the IYR, 3X Leveraged Inverse fund DRV.

IYR, 3X Inverse, DRV, Daily

At the end of today’s session DRV has posted a downside reversal candle.

The next session will be important.

We either have follow-through to the downside, thus validating the reversal (and exit of the position) or we have some variation of an inside day or new daily high.

If the trading channel remains valid, the compressed chart below shows a potential exit range: DRV 140 – 200.

During the next session(s), if DRV, posts a new daily high (unless stopped), the DRV-22-04, stop will be moved to this session’s low @ 73.86

Positions & Current Stance (courtesy only, not advice).

The following is the positioning of my firm’s main (largest) account.

DRV-22-04:

Entry @ 66.463, Stop @ 63.98

ZSL-22-01:

Entry @ 28.08, Stop @ 28.53:

Discretionary exit (today) @ 31.5513***

Trade Closed

LABD-22-08***:

Entry @ 25.1278 (yesterday) and 24.735 (today), Stop @ 22.59

***, Indicates change

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279