Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For the mining sector we’re about to find out if it’s bulls or bears.
With today’s overall (S&P, Dow, QQQ, etc.) down market and the press screaming in hysterical panic at the start of the day, you’d think the market had collapsed 50% or more.
The last update (over the weekend) had this to say about the S&P (emphasis added):
“So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.
However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.“
So, the SPY declines by just over 1%, everyone loses their head and starts talking about CBDC.
Moving on to the ‘knee-jerk’ sector for the day, let’s look at the miners and specifically GDXJ.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close
Admittedly, the prior update was unsure whether or not this sector had its up-thrust reversal ‘test’.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Gold’s reversal or potential for reversal, has already been covered here, here and here.
We’re going to focus on the Junior Miners GDXJ but start first, with an updated chart of gold (GLD).
Gold GLD, Weekly Close
This is how it looked back on April 15th.
As of the close yesterday, we have this:
It’s arguable GLD, is now below the resistance line (completing the Spring-to-Up-Thrust) but that’s not the most important part from a trading standpoint.
When looking at the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, there’s an ominous pattern.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close
Each extreme peak over the last three-years has been labeled; the Derecho of 2020, the so-called Ukraine ‘invasion’, and now, the banking crisis.
Note: The SVB bank failure was on March 10th. There was a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction by the public into gold and related components … that peak appears to have stalled at the location shown.
What’s going on is obvious; it’s a bear market.
Each major peak, lower than the last.
Now, the interesting part.
The Junior Miners are in Wycoff Up-Thrust condition.
In this case, price action’s solidly below the resistance line.
Looking at the daily (not shown), there may have been a ‘test’ of resistance this past week for a move higher; if so, it failed and GDXJ closed slightly lower.
Summary & Positioning
So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.
However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.
For my business accounts, it looks like being short the miners at this juncture is lower risk than being short biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).
Typical short vehicles that could be used (not a recommendation) are DUST and JDST.
As always, anything can happen. If the markets ‘implode’, they might be closed for any number of days or weeks.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
With Friday’s downside reversal we’re now between Euphoria and Anxiety for gold.
This past week was inundated with stories of panic at the bullion dealers.
YouTube ‘content creators’ were going berserk with hyper-inflationist rants; other ‘influencers’ telling us the dollar’s about to collapse; they say the Fed’s the only reason the dollar’s not at zero right now.
Then, rumors warning of gold to $5,000/oz. and higher.
The result as you would expect, is a highly emotional, manipulated public.
Different This Time?
At this point, whether or not the dollar will collapse is probably irrelevant.
Long time visitors to this site already know, battle lines (like here and here) are being drawn and it’s not in precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).
As always, anything can happen and gold could go higher but with Friday’s reversal, probabilities have now shifted to the downside.
With that, we now have an ominous chart of gold below.
It shows the set-up to a repeating market characteristic:
Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.
Gold (GLD) Weekly Close
Gold’s momentum wanes just as it’s pushing up through resistance.
Obviously, what happens next is the important part.
Strategy
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, there’s a Fed speaker every single day. If we’re really at a significant reversal, next week’s likely to put the panic into unsustainable overdrive and mark the top.
For the bulls, we’re looking for the GLD, highs to be maintained. If it can’t hold, there’s reversal trouble ahead.
A Reversal?
If this is the ‘big one’ and gold reverses, a likely (medium-term) target is in the area of $1,300/oz., – $1,350/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).
If that happens, gold’s still expensive but it’s the mining sector GDX, GDXJ, that would potentially be devastated.
Both the Seniors and Juniors are already printing an MACD bearish divergence (not yet confirmed) when looking at the weekly charts.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
“Gold (GLD) either reverses from here or moves slightly higher to the 187.50-area before reversing.”
Immediate reversal is exactly what happened.
Actually, gold did go higher to the targeted (GLD 187.50) area in the overnight session; then reversed before the regular session open.
So, it did both of the forecasted moves. 🙂
The ‘Real’ Unemployment
By now, anyone with two pension-plans rubbing together, knows the numbers … that is, any ‘official’ numbers are complete propaganda (not advice, not a recommendation).
For example, the ‘real’ unemployment here, is likely closer to 25%, rather than the ‘official’ level below 4%.
Keep that in mind, as we continue on.
Gold GLD, Weekly
The GLD, weekly has the three major tops with the current (potential) one included.
The second chart (the daily) focuses on the reversal; in technical terms a ‘Wyckoff Up-Thrust‘.
Gold GLD, Daily
Right now, we’re at the test or The Danger Point®; it won’t take much force to move price action either way.
Pointing probabilities to the downside, we have a repeating pattern of ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.
It’s an observed empirical phenomenon, markets tend to go from a Wyckoff ‘spring’, straight into an ‘up-thrust’.
The New ‘Paradigm’
Well, we probably to have a new paradigm but it’s not in gold (not advice, not a recommendation).
That new paradigm is what no one will discuss.
In the opinion of this author and contrary to what is presented here and here (remember our ‘unemployment’ numbers) we’re in a full-scale demand and population collapse.
The ‘inflation’ for possibly a large part, has been manufactured.
You can’t have over one-hundred food processing plants mysteriously burn down (bug, insect factories not affected) with millions upon millions of egg laying hens destroyed, cattle herd at 1962, lows and not affect the price.
For whatever reason, the mainstream has decided to reveal to the masses what’s been known for years to those who are awake.
Of special interest, Tucker Carlson interview, linked here.
Going Forward
Gold’s at The Danger Point®.
If it can’t make it higher from here on so much apparent and ‘rampant’ inflation, there’s a real risk of it being affected by some kind of Sovereign default … somewhere.
A default would potentially lead to a massive asset sell-off; including everything that’s not nailed down … i.e., gold.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As a reminder, the economic (and population) collapse created by protection from ‘The Speck’, will last the lifetime of anyone reading this post (not advice, not a recommendation).
To support that statement and expand on the enormity of what’s happening, we have this link.
‘Over the next 10 years, ‘Speck’ lawsuits are projected to experience tremendous growth.’
With that, let’s move on.
Alcoa & ESG
Just looking at the website, it’s an ESG cornucopia.
When looking at the chart, it’s (almost) a no-brainer.
First, the very long-term view (Quarterly)
Alcoa AA, Quarterly
On the long-term, we have the repeating market characteristic; ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.
A ‘test’ of that up-thrust has been occurring over the most recent quarter.
On the weekly chart, we see price action penetrated support with volume increasing.
Alcoa AA, Weekly
Technically, it’s a Wyckoff ‘Spring’ set-up. Some form of upward action next week is to be expected.
However, with the increased volume to the downside, probabilities are low at this point we’ll see any significant upside (not advice, not a recommendation).
Long Way To The ‘Open’
As said in the prior update, events are accelerating. The latest from ZeroHedge proves that to be true.
UBS Seeks Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover Deal As Soon As Tonight
Another Nail in the Coffin
Looks like the Swedes have put another nail in the coffin for ESG. How long is it going to take for their pension system to fully collapse and then result in social unrest a la Paris?
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Back in October last year, the update on CarMax, said this:
“… there could be small blip up to resistance in the 85-area before potentially rolling over into a descent that projects to the 4.00, level.
If and when that happens, CarMax rival Carvana, may be long gone; its disruptive vending machines possibly being used as homeless shelters or insect farms.”
Even with the short-squeeze mania last week, rival Carvana, remains down a blistering – 96.2%, from its all-time highs; having reached an interim low of – 99.1%, in December.
Insect farms, dead-ahead. 🙂
The ‘Bounce’
So, does getting to a high of KMX 80.92, meet the forecast of “the 85-area” ?
It looks close enough, but the real story is the bearish trade set-up.
I’ve lost track of the number of Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’, set-ups that have been covered since this post, over sixteen months ago; we now have another.
CarMax KMX, Weekly
Unmarked chart.
Long time users should be able to spot the set-up immediately.
For those new to the site or if more clarification is needed, here it is:
Getting down to the daily, is where a trading plan is created.
KMX, Daily
Several scenarios.
Three potential scenarios are below.
Remember, we’re in possibly the largest bull-trap in market history.
Those in control of the markets need to bleed-off the VIX Call options values by having the market go up, sideways, or down slowly (at first).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There was no Oil & Gas, XOP breakout, last Friday.
What did happen as shown on the chart below, was a test of resistance.
The market can certainly reverse from here. If so, it would be called a ‘double top’.
Those types of reversals are common; but from a trading perspective, that’s not what we are looking for (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’re looking for ‘trapped money’.
That means, as many market participants on the wrong side of the trade as possible so they are the ones that provide fuel for the downside.
Marsha … Marsha … Marsha
Just like The Brady Bunch and its chant of ‘Marsha’ … ‘Marsha’ … ‘Marsha’ … we have the public being led into a similar mantra; ‘Inflation’ … ‘Inflation’ … ‘Inflation’.
With that kind of single mindedness, who’s even looking for a downside reversal?
That does not mean a reversal is imminent … it just means the public is not looking for one; in itself, a requirement.
On to the charts
Oil & Gas XOP, Daily
We’ll re-post the original chart to show how price action has progressed.
This past Friday marked Fibonacci Day 8.
The next chart is how action looks now.
Included, is a forecast (not advice, not a recommendation) of where and how price action may proceed.
If it’s a double-top, we may have already reversed.
If not, Fibonacci Day 13, might be this coming Friday or next Monday.
It could be as early as Friday (actually, 12-days of price action) based on work done years ago.
That is, when an American Holiday occurs while the rest of the world’s markets remain open, that day of closed markets can (sometimes) effectively count as an actual trading day.
So, it’s this coming Friday, or Monday-next, that may be a set-up for reversal.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
When Oil & Gas Sector XOP, pushed above last week’s high, it negated the breakdown scenario.
At the same time, it opened another potential opportunity that may set-up this coming Friday … The 13th.
We’ve shown over and again, markets tend to exhibit repeating patterns. Things like trading ranges, terminating wedges, breakouts and breakdowns, are not new.
However, there’s a lesser-known characteristic; the tendency for a market to go straight from a Wyckoff ‘spring’, into an ‘up-thrust’.
Currently, we’re about mid-way into the set-up as shown on the daily chart of XOP.
Oil & Gas XOP, Daily
Price action pushed below support (the spring set-up) and is now mid-way into that spring; potentially going straight into an up-thrust.
There was a reversal pivot on Fibonacci Day 5 (yesterday), which opens up the possibility of another time correlation at Fibonacci Day 8 … this coming Friday.
Before The Open
It’s about twenty-minutes before the regular open and XOP, is trading higher … further confirming we’re headed for a potential set-up and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 