Category Archives: The Speck

Pre-Market

April 12, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, Project Stimulus, The Speck 1 Comment

9:13 a.m. EST: Since the ‘project’s’ positioned short biotech, that’s the focus for the morning.

The last two updates, here and here, showed biotech acting differently than other markets.

With IBB currently down nearly -15%, from its all time print high, it’s already in ‘correction’ territory; just a few percent more, it’ll be classified as ‘bear market’.

The weekly close shows another bearish set-up with what looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. Note the second ‘bounce’ off the neckline was markedly lower than the first.

Energy to the upside is dissipating. Price action may be ready to penetrate the neckline.

As of this post, inverse fund LABD is trading unchanged to slightly higher (on about 24,000 shares).

If there’s a decisive move lower in IBB (higher LABD), we’ll change the LABD stop. With a current stop at 22.96, (not advice, not a recommendation) we’re right at break even.

Truth Begins to Surface

Stated many times on this site, with such a big (world-wide) lie, it’ll be hard to keep the truth under wraps … especially so, when scenes like this are everyday events.

Several corporations in the IBB sector, are providing the public ‘service’ shown in the above link. We’ll go into their technical condition in a separate update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Position Change

April 8, 2021 By in Awaken with J.P., Biotech, BIS, DRV, IBB, IYR, LABD, Project Stimulus, Real Estate, SRS, The Speck, Uneducated Economist 3 Comments

DRV pushed through our stop early in the session; position closed (not advice, not a recommendation).

1:50 p.m. EST:

Despite all the analysis, IYR is showing continued buoyancy.

Something else is going on; possibly related to Uneducated Economist’s link provided in the last update.

Taking his cue, a functioning mortgage market is all important to the financial narrative, it’s possible this market will be more heavily manipulated than others.

At this juncture it would make sense. All indications are for reversal … yet it’s not happening in any significant way.

Time for another trade.

We’re going back to a market that in retrospect, should’ve been the focus all along; Biotech.

This site’s coming from the perspective those reading, are well aware the ‘speck’ as we call it (to avoid censorship) was a fabricated event.

Just a reminder that we’re not some ‘Johnny come lately’, here’s the link from way back in May, last year.

That post proves the situation was figured out well before the May 17th publish date (interviews, observations conducted a month prior).

What’s not fabricated however, are the repercussions from the so-called cure for the speck.

Unfortunately, those are happening now and are quite real.

Moving on to the trade.

Despite the number of transactions shown in the Project Stimulus table (below), the objective is to minimize activity. We’re looking for a mid, to long term sustainable move; gain potential, 100% to 1,000%.

Updated previously, very long term (Quarterly) IBB has reversed.

Monthly and weekly have reversed as well; both the monthly and weekly MACD indicators point down. Daily is essentially flat.

The hourly chart of LABD (3X inverse IBB) shows the entry location and subsequent price action. Stop is the session low @ 22.23 (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s worth repeating, the false narrative on the speck and consequences of speck protection may blow up in the media (and biotech) at any time.

As J.P. says, getting people to do something they know is bad for them (or lethal) is the ultimate ‘elite’ high.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Something Different, Biotech

April 7, 2021 By in Biotech, BIS, IBB, LABD, The Speck 6 Comments

A long term (Quarterly) view of biotech, IBB

The inverted chart puts it into perspective. Biotech has already reversed.

It would seem fitting as truth is hard to put down forever.

One can only hope the whole fake ‘speck’ narrative will be blown wide open … taking the entire sector down with it.

It may already be happening but in such slow (long term) motion that we’re not noticing it.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Biotech 50% Retrace

March 16, 2021 By in AMGN, Biotech, IBB, LABD, Positions, The Speck 1 Comment

Biotech pulls back 50% and the bulls look tired.

Update 12:23 p.m. EST, noted below in red

The 15-minute chart of inverse fund LABD shows how successive moves lower (higher for IBB) have covered less distance.

It’s very early in the session and price action at this moment is fighting it out at LABD 18.00, area.

We’ve maintained our short position (not advice, not a recommendation) but have the sense, if there’s not a reversal at this point, IBB could be working up for new all time highs.

This is the danger point.

Current LABD low for the early session is 17.91 … a good place for a stop.

LABD pushed down to 17.80, early in the session before reversing.

It has just passed 18.28, a new hourly high. AMGN to be covered later, at important inflection point (down).

Short position via LABD maintained (not advice, not a recommendation), hard stop at 17.80

With markets at record prices, Fed announcement tomorrow, no more stimulus (likely), forbearance to end, possibility of the ‘speck’ blowing wide open, one gets the sense this may be an important reversal.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Gold To Rally ~ $1,660

March 13, 2021 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, The Speck 2 Comments

If that happens, expect the usual suspects to ‘Go Postal’ on the hyperinflation narrative.

Johnny Bravo put it best when he said (to the effect) months ago:

We’re going to get hyperinflation. The question is “When?”

Looking at it a different way and in ‘Oligarch speak’.

The time for hyperinflation, is when the proletariat have exhausted their supplies of precious metals … most likely using it to buy food.

An engineered famine is being constructed; in process, as we speak.

Judging from comments on the financial sites, the public still thinks food prices are rising because of inflation.

There are exceptions (thankfully) like the comment area on ZeroHedge articles. Those few but growing number, understand exactly what’s happening.

So, what’s all of this got to do with the price of gold?

It’s perfectly natural and maybe expected that gold, GLD, after breaking support will rally back to test the 166 (~ $1,660) area.

Just like the incessant narrative on “The Speck“, which is drilled into the collective consciousness day after day (except maybe in South Dakota and Texas) so too, is the hyperinflation Weimar Republic narrative.

A Black Swan (as explained by Nassim Taleb) is a major unexpected event.

The flip side, a Black Swan is also a major expected event, that does not happen. That second definition is not commonly discussed.

What if hyperinflation never happens? What if there’s some kind of ‘transition’ before it has a chance to take hold?

If GLD tests 166, and reverses, downside targets are now 133 and then even lower at 110.

If that happens, there could be a market crash to go along with it.

With margin debt levels the highest in history, most if not all participants will be wiped out long before gold at $1,100 (or lower).

Silver and gold at fire sale levels and the public will be on the other side of the fence, turning in their precious metals hoard in exchange for worthless fiat dollars … just to survive.

It’s an oligarch’s dream come true.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Inflation or Deflation?

March 7, 2021 By in DRV, ice-age-farmer, IYR, Jerimiah Babe, Real Estate, The Speck 1 Comment

Is the latest stimulus bill inflationary or deflationary?

For those adhering to the tenets of Wyckoff analysis (as this site does), you already know it’s sort of a trick question.

The answer is: It doesn’t matter.

Maybe a better way to put it, it’s the wrong question.

The right question is: What’s the market saying about itself?

The market itself will decide (or reveal) the next probable direction.

Before we get to the charts; remember, one objective for the (U.S.) markets and political kabuki theater is, destroy the middle class.

Exactly how that’s going to happen in the final act is unknown.

Perhaps it’ll be illegal to go to the bullion dealer (or the grocer) without proof of protection (injection). Problem solved.

That destruction remains the backdrop; the macro for the analysis.

Moving on to the charts:

Real estate remains in a terminating wedge. Last week’s action had IYR contact the lower wedge boundary and then retrace into the close.

Weekly volume was the highest since the week of March 13th, 2020, almost exactly one year ago.

So, we see the ‘face ripping’ Friday rally, ‘plunge protection team‘ action, had no material effect on the chart’s technical message.

Looking at it a different way, there’s also an axis line in play.

Market oscillations about axis lines are completely normal.

We’ll see if Monday’s action is ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’. We’ve already had buy the rumor (stimulus) with Friday’s rally.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fuel & Trucking Disruption

January 23, 2021 By in DUG, Positions, The Speck, XOP

That’s what can be expected from the Moving Forward Act.

Before we get started with any chart analysis, it’s important to note in the link above, submittal date for the bill was June 11, 2020; a full six months before ‘inauguration’.

Like the CARES Act (Speck relief bill) was submitted nine months before there was an outbreak in the far east, (the ‘relief’ bill was in the works for years), the Moving Forward Act was already making its way through committee long before the change in administration.

Just a short digression on CARES. Accessing the link above, one finds the original submittal date (January 2019, nine months before the outbreak) is nowhere to be found. History being scrubbed and re-written in real time.

Systematic destruction of the nation’s infrastructure is the plan; but the real target remains the food supply.

How does this knowledge help with Oil & Gas Sector analysis?

Supply disruptions could cause fuel prices (USO as proxy) to go higher while at the same time, drillers and producers go lower (XOP as proxy).

XOP chart analysis identified a potential set-up in this report.

That has proved correct thus far. Knowledge of the overall plan (supply disruption/destruction) lets us know the sector most likely is not coming back … not anytime soon.

Shorting XOP via DUG (not advice, not a recommendation) by repeatedly entering and exiting as required, could be a go-forward plan for months or years to come.

Looking at inverse fund DUG, the entry is shown. Price action retreated (testing) for two trading days before continuing on with its reversal.

It’s early in the move but there’s a potential trend line.

For inverse funds, trends in the hundreds or thousands of percent (annualized) are not unusual.

If the trend is maintained, a 100% gain on the position would occur right about the middle of April.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Plan

January 22, 2021 By in DRV, DUG, GDX, IYR, Real Estate, The Speck, XOP

The image below may be the best descriptor of the (economic) plan going forward. Full (forced) compliance won’t be achieved until every vestige of small-business (Mom & Pop) is destroyed.

On the bright side, at least we know what’s coming.

The near instant, within hours fracking about face, could be used as the economic model; destroy everything and do it quickly.

Self employment (S-Corp of one) may or may not be the ultimate answer. One thing it might do, is offer more time for maneuvering. That’s critical when ‘speck’ injectors show up at large firms and force everyone into line.

With that in mind, two sectors have been the focus as opportunities for short positions.

Oil & Gas, XOP and real estate, IYR.

There are others like gold with GDX down again in the pre-market … thus confirming a bearish trend.

It could wind up that shorting GDX was the best option.

However, since there’s such rabid indoctrination into the hyper-inflation theme, it could be a bumpy road to the bottom … the exact worst thing for an inverse ETF.

Those trading vehicles prefer straight down action. Otherwise, they erode (value) quickly.

Analysis of the Oil & Gas sector was covered just recently, right along with identifying a reversal. XOP is down again in the pre-market with DUG up.

The short position in DUG is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation) with chart analysis to come over the weekend.

Real estate, IYR shows a lower open as well.

Going short this one (via DRV) has been more time consuming. As IYR heads lower after an apparent false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), increasing the line (position size) is the objective; not advice, not a recommendation.

Depending on today’s price action, chart analysis on IYR and DRV will be forthcoming.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Fact vs. Fiction

January 17, 2021 By in Corn, The Speck

Two reports discussing the exact same topic, are linked here and here.

One of the reports is fact; the other is fiction.

Just two minutes, and twenty-eight seconds into one of those, the fairly tale begins.

The other has its head on straight and is on-target with truth; a disturbing truth.

Alas, the hyper-inflation narrative runs deep. Comments from the last Van Metre report shows just how deep the rabbit hole goes.

We’ll paraphrase:

‘GDX filled the downward gap … metals to skyrocket higher’.

With every day that passes, we see truth of what comes first; as reported here, it’s corn first, then gold & silver.

Putting it differently; seed producers can’t keep up with demand.

At least one supplier linked here, is shut down … temporarily they say because of huge order backlog.

Interesting their planed re-open, is for the 20th. We’ll see if that happens.

Way back in April last year in at least one state, it was illegal to buy seeds. That same scenario never happened with precious metals.

Are the coin dealers shut down? Precious metals may indeed become important at some future date. However, at this juncture it’s easy to hypothesize you won’t be able to buy or sell without ‘speck’ protection.

Getting that protection essentially makes being around to see (or function in) the future a moot point; doesn’t it?

Stay Tuned

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Night Before Christmas

December 24, 2020 By in Speck-Effect, The Speck 1 Comment

‘Twas the night before Christmas and all through the house, not a coward was stirring, not even a mouse.

They all had their masks, hiding in fear, in hopes the vax they heard about, soon would be here.

Jumping up in nightclothes and getting in line, they all got injected and then went Flat-Line.

When what to my amazement should appear, it was the “expert” doctor saying, it’s all in good cheer.

As the doc ate the cookies that had been left near, he said:

“I just Vaxxed Santa, so he could be here.”

But to my amazement, as the doc went on his way, I saw ‘ol Saint Nick a dead on his sleigh.

Not to worry fair cowards, all in good cheer, just put your mask on, go live in fear.

For those who are brave we all know the tale.  The brave die once only, and are forever regaled.

For the mask wearing cowards who die every day, we bid you farewell, to sleep on the hay.

Yes it’s the hay in the train, we’ve all seen the scene, of boxcars and all, it’s just a bad dream.

Now, the train’s at the camp, the showers are there, herding the mask wearers into their lair.

Sleep soundly you cowards, sleep with your mask. Sleep soundly, sleep soundly;

Go, get your Vax.

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.