There was an initial gap-lower open for SPBIO with LABD, opening higher … but then what happened?
Price action went all the way down (for LABD) to the prior session low. That low was then penetraed by just 0.04-points.
That’s just enough to clear out tight stops, novices and short-term traders; all in one shot (no pun intended).
The fact LABD price action immediately rebounded from the lows, now trading higher, indicates possible trend line verification.
LABD (SPBIO) Analysis:
The LABD daily chart (above) has potential right-side trend verification happening now.
Price action cleared out the stops and hit the support/resistance boundary (dashed magenta line) simultaneously.
The weekly chart below, has one potential move:
Many “Ifs”
If we’re verifying the right side of a trend line and if that trend line is actually part of a channel and if LABD price action is pivoting to the upside, then we’ve got a potential trade (not advice, not a recommendation) that might culminate during the third week of October when markets typically bottom out.
So, we’ve got three “ifs”, one “then”, one “potential”, one “trade”, one “might” and one “typically”.
That sounds reasonable 🙂
On the plus side, there’s not yet been a serious upside move in SPBIO, that would negate the downside potential.
Fundamentals are coming out by the day if not the hour. Whether or not it’s all controlled opposition is unknown to us in the proletariat.
We’re not counting on legal action but price action itself.
That action continues to say that biotech is sub-dividing lower with LABD higher.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If you’re serious about your growth with market analysis and trading, at some point in the journey, you’ll discover this fact:
The most successful and effective market speculators operate alone.
Livermore had his office with the ticker, ‘board boys’, and not much else.
Wyckoff (from his autobiography) refused over and over the overtures of his wealthy clients to establish a more personal relationship.
The late David Weis was the same; managing his own account.
One difference with him; he provided a mentoring service that passed on his valuable insight.
It was a steal of a price (back in 2011) … just $1,500.
Personal Anecdote (being mentored by Weis):
It was April, of 2011:
As Weis interviewed me on the phone, asking all sorts of questions about my background (engineering), my parents (my late father, a Yugoslav national, shot by Germans in an attempted execution during WWII), and my trading objectives, it became clear to me, I would pay whatever price necessary to gain an audience with him.
This all took place before his website was complete and before his book was published. It was sort of a ‘golden time’.
Stretched Growth:
Weis traded the futures markets. If I was to be mentored by him, I would need to get up to speed and trade futures as well.
I knew almost nothing (except they were highly leveraged) about those markets. However, I was determined to learn very quickly.
During the phone interview, which lasted maybe forty minutes to an hour, he did not mention (and I did not ask) the cost of his services.
As the call progressed, I was literally getting sick with anticipation.
Coming to a close, almost absentmindedly, he said: ‘It’ll be $1,500’.
I fully expected him to say, and would have gladly paid $5,000 or more … which was the going rate for a typical trading course.
He then ‘suggested’ that I open a futures account; our mentoring sessions would start the next week.
Fast Track:
After that call, three things happened in quick succession.
First: A check (he was old-school) was mailed off to him in Boston so that it would clear before the next week.
Second: I contacted TradeStation and got their futures paperwork to open an account. That happened quickly and $15,000 (an amount suggested by Weis), was wired to the account.
Third: Buy the time of the first session, I already had the futures account set up and had determined what markets I would be trading: The LIFFE mini-futures (now part of ICE Futures Europe) for gold and silver.
On The Fly:
One last thing about trading futures and learning quickly.
I noticed about two weeks into trading silver, the volume on the contract I was in, started to drop off.
I did not understand why the liquidity was drying up … that is, until I checked my e-mails.
Turns out, I was about to ‘take delivery’, and pay $37,000 for a bar of silver if I did not exit the contract (that day).
The entire time with Weis was a growth experience. Very painful most of the time as knowledge had be acquired on the spot.
During our sessions, I would have the phone to my ear and be feverishly taking ‘screen shots’ of his computer (via gotomeeting,com) as he progressed through the session.
This link is probably as close as one will come to a typical mentoring session.
No Group Consensus:
Going to the link and watching for even a few minutes, it’s obvious this type of analysis is in a class of its own.
Nowhere in the video does he mention P/E ratios, Sales-to-Book or any number of useless metrics.
Deciding to pursue this type of trading, will of itself, separate you from the crowd.
The mainstream financial press will never present this level of detail. The general pubic does not have the intellectual capability or discipline to really get down and craft this skill.
Of course the financial media, YouTuber’s and the like, are all too happy to cater this (mediocre) crowd by showing their supposed prowess on dissecting financial reports and/or pontificating on the latest Fed speech.
Little does the public know, this type analysis (fundamental metrics) is just a ruse; a distraction promulgated over the life of the markets to distract and disable the masses.
The fact that ruse keeps going, is proof in itself of its effectiveness.
Which brings us, once again, to biotech.
SPBIO (LABD): Analysis
In this case, which could be one of a kind in history, the fundamentals are important.
Those in the biotech sector have intentionally (depending on whose data is used) fatally poisoned millions if not billions.
Their natural immune systems have been forever destroyed and their life expectancy drastically shortened.
Even so, this fundamental backdrop must not cloud interpreting the market behavior at hand and the Wyckoff analysis.
We’ll start as Weis does in the video link, with an un-marked chart. Daily close of inverse fund LABD:
Next we’ll show how the right side action is alternating its behavior:
At this juncture, the market is not able to retrace.
Price action from the last intermediate low in late June, has formed a double, then single, and then no bottom.
Adding in the repeating trendline study, LABD is currently near a contact point on the right side trend:
Price action itself points to more downside for SPBIO (LABD higher).
With the overall markets closing poorly on Friday, the implication is for lower action in the coming week.
Consumer All Done:
The post on Friday, showed how the consumer is literally spent.
Then, couple that with Dan’s (iAllegedly) assessment: “The Party’s Over”; the pressure continues to build.
We might take the example of lumber futures as a model for upcoming price action; essentially, straight down -66.3%, in 48 trading days.
Wistful Conclusion:
David Weis is now gone (passed away last year).
After listening to his voice once again, I have let it personally admonish me to remain focused and diligent.
Even a decade after our mentoring sessions, with focused effort, the search for mastery is never ending.
To borrow a quote from Oswald Chambers: “One must determine to be limited and focus their affinities.”
We’re at a critical time in world history and that’s not overstated.
Our conditions have brought so many cowards to the fore.
In a way, it’s a tremendous public service.
It’s clear to see who is leading and who is cowering in place.
If anyone has a hope of surviving (even prospering) in this environment, for some it will be taking control of their own market decisions; separating themselves from those who want them to remain ignorant.
Stepping out into the raw edge of life, has no guarantee of success.
However, what is guaranteed, is stretching of oneself into a new level of thinking, experience, and wisdom.
That, is its own reward.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
After BA pilot fatalities were confirmed, at least one airline is backing off from insisting their pilots are injected.
Some adverse reactions linked above, occurred in-flight; the pilot was incapacitated.
“Is there a pilot on-board?”
That could become a frequent call through the cabin intercom in the months … even years to come.
The bottom line implications are obvious.
The response to ‘back-off’ probably has nothing to do with safety and more to do with protecting those executive stock options.
Which brings us to the markets.
Analysis: SPBIO (LABD)
The last update for biotech said it was ‘about to get real’. So, it has.
Looking at SPBIO inverse fund LABD, we have the familiar trend lines:
The market itself says it wants to follow this trend.
Pulling out to the weekly, we get what seems to be an incredible picture.
At the beginning of the trade, the short position in SPBIO, via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation), had an exit time-frame during the second, or third week of October.
From an empirical and seasonal standpoint, that’s when on-going downtrends tend to reach their lows.
Already Baked In:
Various numbers are bandied about as to how many have been injected.
One estimate is 2-Billion, world-wide (Dr. Coleman if memory serves).
Total population at 7.9-Billion; 2-Billion, equates roughly to 25%
No matter what happens, de-population is already baked-in.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Looking at each, none of them even hint things could go wrong.
To be really cynical (and probably correct), the senior trading professionals may know this sector’s at risk of implosion.
They task junior employees to cover it; attempting to talk it up.
Analysis: SPBIO
Moving on to inverse fund LABD, we have Fibonacci correlation on two time frames:
In addition, from a Wyckoff standpoint, we’re in spring position on the weekly and daily time frames.
All of this points to high probability (not advice, not a recommendation) that biotech and specifically the weaker SPBIO, has pivoted to the downside (LABD higher).
Naming Names:
A couple of days ago, we had Dr. Yeadon (former Chief Scientist, Pfizer) absolutely grilling and eviscerating his interviewers, covered here.
Then, we have Dr. Coleman deciding to name, names.
Now, it’s getting real.
With this type of high-level pressure being applied from internationally known and respected (real) heroes, one has to think, it can’t be long before the lie is fully exposed; blowing the entire sector, wide open.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Get injected and we’ll put it all back to ‘normal’.
No. 4
Idiots Suffer More
There’s no joy watching others suffer.
Those of us who just want to ‘wake up others’, want only that; meaning, somehow, you’re able to pull back the veil. They now have eyes to see and ears to hear.
‘The Church’ had its opportunity way back in March of 2020.
That was the time to call on supernatural protection to ward off (what this site calls ‘the speck’ to avoid censorship) any negative effects of what we now know, was a fake enemy.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If you’re a leader, business owner or entrepreneur, dealing with idiots is probably the most frustrating part of running a business.
The leader has an absolutely thankless job most of the time.
However, there are times where being someone that can think, act, and be resistant to the criticisms of the crowd (‘double-jabbed zombies’ as Dr. Vernon Coleman calls them), pays off in spades.
At least we don’t have to put up with being played as we see here.
As we move forward to fall and winter, we’ll find out just how important resisting the peer pressure of the (double-jabbed) crowd may be.
On the practical side, David Knight interviews Catherine Austin Fitts on steps that can be implemented for personal financial and legal protection.
She touches on a subject that’s been covered several times on this site; that is, killing-off your customers is not good for future business.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
At this point, especially after witnessing the ‘lock-step’ positioning of major corporations over the past year, one thing is obvious:
They’re all operating in concert.
The coordinated message is that everything’s getting back on track. No need to worry.
See how ‘normal’ things are? Big companies are even ‘planning’ for the future. Stay calm and take no (preparatory) action.
Indian Summer:
The reality is, just as this link suggests, we’re in an Indian Summer. That is, we’re between two extremes.
The past year can be viewed as the summer heat. Then, we’ve just had a break (advent of fall/winter) with restrictions being lifted … but soon the figurative and literal winter will come.
Think that’s a bit much? Well, let’s just take a look at one item.
The video in the link above, mentions the need for ‘body bags’; that we’ll run out … sounds insane.
The long term, Quarterly chart shows the extent of the technical damage.
The 80% drop could be the beginning of a multi year (maybe decades long) decline.
If it was a crash (like lumber futures), it will have the typical crash-like structure.
That is: An initial swift, decisive decline; followed by retracement which then rolls over into a sustained and long term move lower.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500, is hovering at its all-time-highs.
Not only has UAL not made a new all time high (posted way back in December of 2018), the weekly chart shows it’s formed a terminating wedge.
At this point, it’s ‘rolling out’ of that wedge indicating sell or sell short; Not advice, not a recommendation.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The very last thing you’ll need in that environment, is a stack of metal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Personal anecdote, skip to GDX Chart, if not interested.
These updates are originating from the North-Central area of Texas (DFW). When the historic cold snap rolled through this past February, the power went out repeatedly.
The first thought was not: “I’m sure glad I have my stack of silver to get me through”
No. The thinking was (in this order):
Food, water (water was second as there was plenty of it just outside as snow), munitions and ‘delivery mechanisms’, cash in case the gas station was operational … which is was not and then lastly, heat.
The location was using natural gas for heating and was available as long as there was power
Precious metals were nowhere on the list … not even considered. They had nothing to do with the situation at hand.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Crisis will create opportunity for leadership; at this point, there’s not much if any in the financial sector (i.e. ‘best ever’, above).
When the big melt-down hits, leadership’s not coming from the ranks of the ‘compliant’ or the enforced mediocrity of the ‘fiduciary’.
Therefore, we can all take our cue; like this Irish couple who took it upon themselves, to separate from the crowd and escape quarantine.
With that in mind, on to the markets:
Analysis, Biotech
As we head towards the close with about twenty minutes left, the S&P 500, has posted an all-time high.
Biotech, SPBIO and IBB, are still well below their highs but are nonetheless at a point of instability with today’s action.
As the Hourly chart of LABD shows, we’re at the danger point and in spring condition:
A push back into the range above support, is significantly bullish for LABD and bearish for SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For what seems the longest time, a recurring focus of this site has been the biotech sector.
Specifically, the IBB (ETF) and SPBIO (Index).
There’s good reason for that. In this update, we’ll go deeper into the downside opportunity.
Biotech Reversal:
SPBIO, topped out on February 9th this year. The IBB (ETF) topped one day later.
Both went on to form a Quarterly reversal bar; indicating a long term change in character.
Of the two, SPBIO has showed more weakness having posted monthly lower lows for three successive months.
That relative weakness over the IBB index, has resulted in focusing on the inverse of SPBIO; specifically the 3X inverse, LABD.
Working with leveraged inverse funds is only profitable on a short-term basis or when the underlying index is in a persistent down-trend.
Otherwise, typical market chop results in value erosion of the inverse fund (not advice, not a recommendation).
For the reasons discussed in the last section below (Nuremburg 2.0), we’re anticipating the index to have a sustained and persistent drop to much lower levels.
Downside Projections:
Going way back to Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and the Wyckoff Stock Market Institute training materials, both in their own way indicated a speculative position was only entered if there was sufficient potential.
Livermore’s 10-points or more and Wyckoff’s cause and effect
In Wyckoff’s case, the ’cause’ was price action congestion built up in the P&F chart.
The ‘effect’ was the resulting move.
Which brings us to now:
Many times on this site, we’ve said biotech has built up congestion in a way, when it reverses and begins its decline, price action itself will create lower targets.
We’ll present two charts showing how that’s happening.
The first P&F chart in this update and provided below, has a projected downside target for IBB around, 116 – 120 area:
Note, the downside is not to scale as the real location is far below the noted area.
Biotech IBB, then went on to post lower action. That in turn has resulted in an updated downside target:
Once again, the downside is not to scale.
It’s apparent, as IBB heads lower, it successively builds lower targets and it’s only (potentially) just getting started.
The weekly chart of IBB below, spells it out:
If and when IBB price action gets to the initial targets, it enters a congestion area that will (by that time) be over seven years wide.
If the trend is still down, that congestion in turn would target even lower levels.
The “-80%” interestingly enough, comes from a quote by Steven Van Metre at this link.
That 80% drop also corresponds to a downside Fibonacci (not shown) projection of 423.6%, on the above chart.
Nuremberg 2.0
This phrase has become so ubiquitous you can do a search for it.
So far, not a single mainstream financial site or YouTuber (still on that platform) has mentioned this fact in their analysis.
The speck injections are mass genocide and intended as such.
Two recent events resulting from injections are here and here.
If all of a sudden, injected pilots can’t fly (the first link), how are goods going to be transported?
Not generally known to the public, commercial air-transport is also used to haul freight (while carrying passengers).
Exactly how all of this (world crime) will break is unknown.
If and when it does, the result in the biotech sector as well as equities in general, could be successive air-pockets all the way down.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 