Category Archives: Wyckoff

Bond Reversal ? … Ruh, Roh

January 3, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff 3 Comments

This Time’s Not Like Last Time

The market’s down; bonds down at the same time.

Wait, what?

If the Fed does not lower rates, then bonds risk a reversal to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, no one expects that to happen. No one.

Well, maybe there’s at least one, link here: 

‘No pivot anywhere in sight.’

Bad News, Bonds

It gets worse when looking at TLT. As we’ll see below, the chart has a (potential) repeating set-up, link here.

Long Bond Proxy TLT, Daily

The set-up is not complete and may well diffuse into nothing.

However, if it does not and we get back below the magenta resistance line, there’s likely to be some serious confusion in the markets.

Wyckoff said a century ago, those incorrectly positioned in the market, provide the fuel (as they panic and exit) for a directional move.

Just think about who’s (potentially) on the wrong side and what side that is, i.e., the bullish side.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘$30-Silver’ … Nowhere In Sight

December 30, 2023 By in Car Questions Answered, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Interest Rates, SLV, Wyckoff

It May Still Get There … But First

Just as this report said nearly a year ago, there’d be no Fed pivot (still waiting), this article from seven months ago, prompted a mental note to revisit the ‘$30/oz’, silver prediction.

Before we address that, let’s go way back to this post over three-years ago, detailing how the miners, and silver for that matter, are not (yet) in a sustained bull market.

Now, we have the Fed ‘pivot’ set-up and the metals (especially silver) posting a non-confirmation.

The (non) ‘Pivot’

Obvious to only a few (like Uneducated Economist), is how the ‘pivot’ narrative is a false. 

Typing in ‘Fed pivot’, into YouTube turns up a massive list. Everybody’s jumping on board. 

That in itself, may be cause for alarm.

From a strategic standpoint, we’re not in Kansas anymore.

The 40-year long bond bull market (1980 – 2020) has been broken. Higher rates for longer, like maybe another forty-years, may be the norm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Still Down

Silver (SLV) is far below its 2011, highs: approximately -55%. In addition, SLV, may be on its way to test the lows of SLV, 12.50 – 13.50. More on that in another post.

Silver SLV, Daily

The chart shows we’ve had a false breakout (Wyckoff up-thrust), then reversal, and now an apparent test that has (so far) pivoted lower.

The inference is, the silver market’s not buying the Fed ‘pivot’ and subsequent inflation narrative. 

It’s possible, the economic collapse narrative like here and here, is weighing more on silver … a narrative that’s actually happening. 🙂

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Think Like A ‘Criminal’

December 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, Neil McCoy-Ward, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

How The Game Is Played

Watch the video linked here, to see how veteran trader Richie Naso describes trading false breakouts and breakdowns, showing how to position in the markets.

What he’s in effect describing is a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (false breakout) and a Wyckoff Spring (false breakdown).

Then he adds, you have to ‘think like a criminal’ to really understand who is doing what, to whom.

Note: No mention of the Fed, corporate earnings or any other ‘funny-mentals’ as Ed Seykota likes to call them.

Inflation Takes A Holiday

Not for long though.

Neil McCoy-Ward at this link, describes how inflation is coming back (time stamp 21:00).

The Imaginary Friend

We’ve had the markets launch on ‘Imaginary Rate Cuts’ as Uneducated Economist calls them, while in the background, more inflation (i.e., supply destruction) is in the works.

Which brings us to biotech and specifically, SPBIO, $SPSIBI, and XBI.

Biotech XBI, Daily

We may have just had the largest market fake-out (up-move) in history; time will tell.

With all of that manipulation, price action (for biotech, at least) has come back to near prior peaks … but not above.

As this post is being created (3:05 p.m., EST), XBI is starting to back off its intra-day highs.

Internalize It

Referring back to Undedicated Economist, the comment sections of his videos have the usual ‘So, what do I do?’.

His response is a good one. 

He says to ‘internalize’ the message he’s presenting. For example, in this case, it’s possibly the biggest market fake-out in history. Then he says you will ‘intuitively’ know what to do (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Bellwether … CRSP

December 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CRSP, IMGN, LABD, LABD-23-16, MRTX, Positions, SOXS-23-10, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Repeating Trend, Cashing-Out

Once again, there’s a repeating trend of (potential) reversal.

This time, it’s biotech, specifically CRISPR Therapeutics, CRSP.

Before we get into it, a point of housekeeping; SOXS-23-10, has been closed, exited at SOXS 8.43; loss is manageable at -2.9% (not advice, not a recommendation).

CRSP, Market Proxy

CRSP, is being used as the proxy for biotech as it’s number five in market cap at this link.

However, the first two IMGN, and MRTX, are buyout (acquisition) candidates, eventually to be removed, making CRSP, number three with no additions.

Set-Ups That Repeat

Market behaviors repeat. Set-Ups repeat. The title above, was from a post over two years ago, link here.

Taking a look at CRSP, we have the same pattern.

CRISPR Therapeutics CRSP, Weekly

The volume spike for the week, is the largest ever; ergo, someone is selling.

From a CRSP, price action catalyst and news standpoint, the link is here.

This coming Wednesday, is the Fed interest rate announcement, link here.

Wyckoff said, ‘somebody always knows something and that “something”, shows up on the tape’.

It’s likely those that know, are cashing out ahead of the meeting (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

If it’s presented on this site, a position has already been established or it’s in preparation for entry.

So, it is with biotech.

A biotech short was opened this past Friday via LABD with two entries: LABD 13.93 and LABD 14.17.

Trade is labeled, LABD-23-16

Hard Stop @ LABD 13.82, for a combined (both entries) risk of 0.23-pts/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s a ‘Hole’ in The SOXX

December 2, 2023 By in NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-23-10, SOXX, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Two-Weeks of Churn

The SOXX, has been churning at 510- 525, for over two weeks with no net progress.

What happens if it can’t go materially higher?

It’s reasonable to think, good news is already out; evidenced by Nvidia’s price action.

If we look at NVDA, using it as the proxy, it has reversed off all-time highs, slipped below support and on Friday, came back to test; a weak one at that (so far).

SOXX Highs, Long Ago

The SOXX posted its all-time-highs nearly two years ago with the most recent rebound in August, this year.

Now, after a subsequent move lower, price action has come back up to test, forming an apparent hole.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily

The chart says it all; We’re at The Danger Point®

Price action appears to be struggling at this level.

If it can’t break higher and/or, posts a new daily low, it may be confirming a false breakout (Wyckoff, ‘Up-Thrust’).

That would open up possible testing of gaps (lower), potentially the Trading Range lows, as well (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As one would surmise, a short position was opened on Friday via Leveraged Inverse Fund SOXS.

Entry @ SOXS 8.59, Hard Stop @ 8.22, Soft Stop (discretionary) @ 8.30 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is labeled: SOXS-23-10

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

What To Expect … For Biotech

November 25, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-14, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

When The ‘Thrust’ Shortens

The balls clicking away on a Newton’s Cradle, will eventually come to rest; so, it is with markets and reversals.

Price action moving in one direction will eventually stop, then reverse.

The ‘how’ and ‘when’ of that action, is what we want to know.

Years ago, Wyckoff observed, reversals were likely when price action began to have a ‘shortening of the thrust’.

We can see that in the chart of inverse biotech fund LABD.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, Hourly

Friday’s action posted a new LABD low of 0.01-pts, corresponding to new XBI high, of 0.02-pts.

From a shorter thrust perspective, we’re looking for net downside progress, not overall distance.

Looking at the chart, it’s reasonable to expect biotech SPBIO, $SPSIBI, XBI to decline in the coming sessions with leveraged inverse fund LABD, rising accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Those monitoring this series on trading the sector, have been privy to the actions taken by one speculator to position (and re-position) short via LABD.

With the understanding, anything can happen, I have an open short via LABD, noted as LABD-23-14.

Hard Stop is last Friday’s low of LABD 17.61, with Soft Stop, discretionary, near LABD 18.00 – 18.09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nat-Gas Washout, New Lows

November 10, 2023 By in Natural Gas, Positions, UNG, UNG-23-05, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Is Now, The Time?

Let’s remind ourselves why there’s trading interest in Nat-Gas; putting it succinctly, ‘disruption‘.

We have disruption in nearly everything else (food supply, auto parts, medicines), why not the infrastructure?

The premise for the opportunity (if one can call it that), was discussed months ago. The work, the idea, the strategy has already been covered.

It turns out, other professionals had the same idea, prompting this update.

Those speculators needed to be washed out before a potential set-up could be created.

We may be there now; Nat-Gas proxy, UNG, is at The Danger Point® (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nat-Gas UNG, Daily

As of this post (10:45 a.m., EST), UNG has penetrated support and is trading in a narrow range.

Breaking below support (blue line) puts UNG, in Wyckoff Spring Position, ready for potential reversal.

Note the heavy down volume (purple oval) with little net downside progress.

Positioning

Could UNG post lower? Certainly, anything can happen.

Have the longs been washed out?

Volume, price action and time say, if it has not happened already, we may be close.

An initial long position has been opened at UNG 6.34, with tentative stop at the session low, currently, UNG 6.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade is identified at UNG-23-05.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … History Repeats

October 22, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Unraveling, By-The-Day

Well, pretty much everything is unraveling, so in a sense biotech’s no different.

However, this sector (SPBIO, $SPSIBI), is the weakest of all the major indices (from 2020 – 2022, highs), down approx. 62%.

We’ll get to the ‘history repeats’ part farther down but first a reminder, this site’s about Strategy, Tactics, and Focus, i.e., Livermore, Wyckoff, and Loeb.

It looks like we’re already in a full-blown economic, societal (population) collapse, i.e., Strategy.

Biotech appears to be the weakest sector, i.e., Tactics.

The (shorting) action is on that sector exclusively, i.e., Focus.

Not advice, not a recommendation.

Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, 8-Day

Since the Fibonacci 8-Day chart was used for the update on gold, GLD, we’ll use it for this post.

All trendlines shown on the chart are exactly parallel.

The market itself has presented a tendency to trend at the rate shown in the ‘Trading Channel’.

It’s happened before; identified as ‘Repeating Trendline’.

Positioning

This series of short trades on SPBIO, opened via LABD, and identified as LABD-23-10, LABD-23-11, are fully documented here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

From a Wyckoff perspective, the market itself is telling us to ‘do nothing’, maintain the trade unless stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Decision Point

October 21, 2023 By in GLD, Gold & Silver, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Is This The Last Peak?

We’ve got a Quadrillion Dollar Derivative Bubble out there, just waiting to pop … if it hasn’t already.

So, riddle me this; just exactly how is that (likely) collapse going to be paid-off … with what?

Fiat currency?

The chart of gold GLD below, is on a Fibonacci 8-Day scale.

Who looks at an 8-Day chart?

Gold GLD, 8-Day

As of Friday’s close, we’re just below resistance (top blue line) which puts price action in Wyckoff Up-Thrust, (potential reversal) condition.

The chart also shows, over the past three-years, volume on each successive (major) upward 8-Day spike is declining.

The percentages shown, are the volume decline from the prior move higher.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, volume equals commitment and/or energy.

Positioning

Anything can happen.

Looking at the last financial collapse back in ’08 – ’09, GLD declined about – 32%, (very near that ’33’, mark) before moving significantly higher.

If we get another financial meltdown (which we may be in already), is anyone prepared for GLD to drop – 50%, or more … let’s say, – 66%?

A decline of 66% from the all-time GLD high of 194.45 (posted, 8/6/20), puts GLD, at a potential low of 66.1 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279