Category Archives: Wyckoff

Bonds & Brokers … Reversal

September 8, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-07, IBKR, IBKR-25-01, Interest Rates, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SCHW, SCHW-25-01, SPY, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Well, Except for HOOD

Long bonds TLT, have launched higher four consecutive sessions; yields lower.

Two major brokers, Schwab and Interactive, appear to have tested (or, are testing) their Friday breakdown.

Robinhood bucked the trend, closing at all-time highs.

That puts HOOD, in potential Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’ (reversal) position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: The S&P did not post new highs. Last Friday’s all-time high, remains intact.

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Between A Rock

September 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

… And The Hard Place

As the chart shows, the SOXX has been struggling for weeks in the resistance zone.

From that chart, one question to be asked, did the overnight and early session fill the gap?

The other question, did the Nvidia earnings release change the dynamic of the sector?

Reading price action since then, in real time, the answer seems to be yes (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

As of this post (10:35, a.m., EST), the SOXX is struggling to post higher … but it’s not happening.

There’s a lot of congestion around the resistance zone. In Wyckoff terms, he calls this price action ‘Cause’.

Meaning, that if we break materially lower from here, it’s called ‘Effect’.

His point being, since there’s sufficient cause for a sustained move, if/when it happens, we’re to expect a corresponding effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Financials … Feeling Puny

August 26, 2025 By in David Weis, Financial Sector, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-06 1 Comment

At The Edge

The last update on Financial Sector, XLF, said it was in potential up-thrust (false breakout) condition.

Monday’s action was slightly down and today; we have a new daily low.

In addition, as we’ll see in the chart, all of this action is taking place below established resistance.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

We’re at the ‘edge of the lake’, as David Weis used to call it. This is where the risk of being wrong is least.

Since the market’s posted a new daily low, risk on a short position is well defined, i.e. yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Currently short this sector as XLF-25-06, with stop in the vicinity of XLF 53.58. After the close of this session, the stop (if not exceeded) will be moved lower to the high of today’s session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Making (position) Adjustments

August 25, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DAL, DAL-25-03, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-12, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 4 Comments

SOXX Closed, DAL Closed XBI, Open

What we’re looking for from a short-side perspective, is ‘ease-of-movement’, downward.

Today, only one sector that’s currently being followed exhibited downside ease: Biotech, XBI.

To recap the situation with XBI, were in Wyckoff up-thrust position, first discussed here, then here and here.

Positioning

As stated in the header, SOXX-25-12, DAL-25-03, have been closed.

Biotech (short) XBI-25-03, opened with a stop at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 24, 2025 By in BAC, Federal Reserve, Financial Sector, Interest Rates, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XLF 1 Comment

Bank of America & XLF

It’s no secret, Warren Buffet has been selling BAC, shares for some time; more recently, here.

The hard part is, how does one map that to price action?

Or does his selling have any material effect.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, we put that information in the background.

It’s there, we’re aware of it, but the focus is on price action itself.

So, let’s take a look.

BAC is a heavy weighting the in financial sector, with index tracking fund XLF, as a good vehicle for analysis.

That ETF just printed an all-time high this past Friday.

Financials XLF, Daily

Friday’s Fed announcement could be a significant infection.

Of course, the media is all aboard with a September cut, providing endless opinions on how to trade something that has not even happened.

What we’re looking for on this site, is some evidence of a reversal. We’re looking to see if price action stalls in not only the XLF, but the other major sectors as well.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech …

August 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-02

Nascent Reversal

Long or short, this is the spot where anything can happen.

Friday’s action in XBI, made it Fibonacci 89 Days, from the April 9th, lows.

Today printed higher, reversed (slightly), closing lower, making this Fibonacci Week 21 (-1) from the April lows.

Trading Coach … Livermore

Getting back to trading insights from Livermore (last update), he stresses the adage, ‘If it meets requirements, then execute’.

At this point that’s the case for biotech, XBI.

Biotech Short (again)

We’re in Up-Thrust position (above resistance) have met a Fibonacci count, then printed a reversal bar; the trading action is/was to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade: XBI-25-02, stop in the vicinity of today’s high (not advice, not are recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 17, 2025 By in Livermore, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Livermore’s ‘Rules’

Judging from the timestamp(s) on comments from this link and this one, for whatever reason, the ‘algorithm’ decided to just now, put these videos in the ‘in-box’.

Taken from the video at the first link, we have this:

‘Cut what’s not working’

This trading adage flies in the face of the ‘engineering’ mindset.

The engineer (generalizing) does not cut what’s not working. No, they need to know, they must know, ‘why’ it’s not working.

This type of thinking is burned in, drilled in, hammered in, during engineering school and the workplace.

If you’re design’s not working, you better know ‘why’. 🙂

That makes the typical engineer unable to handle the fact, no matter how much analysis was done, how much research, the trade’s not working.

Wyckoff said it best nearly a century ago, ‘The why always comes out later, after the fact‘.

The Media & ‘Why’

Of course, the media wants ‘investors’ to search for the ‘why’. They encourage the ‘why’, they have experts come on and discuss the ‘why’ … the ‘why’ is endless.

The result: Focus is shifted away from the truth (price action itself) to other non-productive questions.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The HOOD, Tests its Reversal

August 14, 2025 By in HOOD, HOOD-25-04, Positions, Retail Investor, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

The last update on HOOD, said there’s a potential trading channel, link here.

The next day, price action negated that channel with a break to the upside.

That upside now looks like a ‘spring’, leading straight into an ‘up-thrust’; a repeating pattern.

HOOD reversed from its highs and today, looks to be testing that breakdown.

Volume for this session contracted by -37.5%, when compared to yesterday.

Robinhood, HOOD, Daily

From a trading perspective, a short was opened yesterday; HOOD-25-04.

Position size was increased today as price action was rising into its test (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech in (short) Range

August 13, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Positions, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XBI-25-01

Pushes Past Resistance

Will biotech XBI, be ‘picked-off’ by the shorts?

Three months ago, was this post; identifying a potential area for reversal.

Looking for the set-up, a Wyckoff ‘up-thrust’, more commonly known as false breakout.

Biotech XBI, Daily

After waiting, watching price action on a daily basis, almost getting sucked-in (short) too early, we now have a potential false breakout.

The penetration of resistance is not quite what was expected (meaning, a much larger thrust) and there may be more upside to come.

With that said, as can be seen from the side-bar, an initial short was opened today, XBI-25-01 (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … In The ‘Pattern’

August 11, 2025 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, GXZ25, Inflation, JDST, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Was That, The Top?

Inflation reports are released tomorrow, link here.

That release may be an inflection point for the miners.

This past Friday, GCZ25, posted an all-time high, then reversal; in the early session today, it’s continuing lower.

From a Wyckoff standpoint, what’s in the inflation reports is immaterial. The real question is, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Repeating pattern, Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Pre-market action (8:34 a.m., EST) shows a lower open.

If we open lower, the short entry objective, is to wait for action to move higher in an attempt to close the (potential) gap (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279