From the article, looks like I wasn’t the only one figuring on some type of semi-permanent, supply hit.
If everybody’s ready for it … it won’t happen at all or not when it’s expected to happen.
If there’s going to be some type of blow-up and ‘the market’ knows about it, those not part of the club, need to be flushed out.
With that, let’s look at Nat-Gas (UNG), and see if we’re close to a bullish set-up.
Natural Gas UNG, Daily Candle
At this juncture, UNG has reversed below resistance and may be heading back up for a test.
Note the low volume of Friday’s action. There’s not much commitment at this level.
I’ve cut straight to the chase, showing the ‘target’ area where there could be a low-risk long entry if the market gets to that level (not advice not a recommendation).
If UNG, heads lower yet again, it could be the last straw for the weak bulls, causing them to close out.
For a prior example on how ‘targets’ work, reference here and here on gold, GLD.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A military coup in Niger results in gold shipment suspension.
Correspondingly, the mining sector along with gold and silver, are higher.
The real question is, will gold, silver, and the miners continue upward or is this just an excuse to force out the weak (short-positioned) hands?
If we look at the facts, such as Niger’s gold output compared to the rest of the world, it’s miniscule; hardly a blip and production is decreasing.
Add in, the mining sector has not been in a bull market for years, and we’ll surmise, the current move higher has low probability of continuing (not advice, not a recommendation).
For today’s session (as of 3:11 p.m., EST), price action has effectively been slammed into resistance as shown.
Junior Gold Miners GDXJ, Daily
For positioning short (via JDST) this is potentially a low-risk area (not advice, not a recommendation).
There would need to be continued demand for a move higher past the resistance area (blue line).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re going to start first, with this link, presenting the on-going fundamentals of the sector.
For those of us literally pulling their hair out, wondering if the dam is ever going to break, we have this link.
‘We’ve just poisoned 5-Billion people …’
Note: The dam break is the ‘event horizon’ where everyone collectively wakes-up. Once that happens, the ‘conspiracy’ has been proven as undeniable fact.
Biotech SPBIO, may or may not have an absolute direct connection with the aforementioned links but it’s the ‘baby with the bathwater’ response that’s expected.
Adding to that, big players in this sector have no P/E
The top-ten weightings keep changing, but the last time it was checked, none in the top-ten, had a P/E.
Since we’re working the short side, it’s the leveraged inverse fund LABD that’s of interest.
Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
Note the near perfect Fibonacci time correlation.
As of today’s close, price action on the LABD has got itself into a Wyckoff ‘spring position’ having decisively penetrated support (blue line), shown below.
That spring set-up has been accomplished on weak down-thrust when compared to the prior move lower.
We have a high probability of upside reversal, down for SPBIO (not advice, not a recommendation).
Positioning
Stated in the prior update, we’re short this sector (long LABD) and now have Hard Stop @ LABD 13.27 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Update: 7/13/23, 2:51 p.m. EST
LABD price action pushed to 13.26, just 0.01, below the above listed stop and is now moving higher.
Trade has been maintained (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘Real (market) opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent’; Gerald M. Loeb, the late, and former Vice Chairman, of E.F. Hutton
What a refreshing quote that is, back in the day when we had ‘Chairmen.’.
So, are the Miners the Juniors GDXJ, that opportunity?
From a technical standpoint, there’s the bearish divergence on MACD when looking at the weekly. Then, we have Fibonacci correlation on the weekly as well (shown below).
The daily has the short entry signal given yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Fundamentals Collapse
Next, we have industrial demand in collapse, not to mention the world economies. If industrial demand is collapsing for photovoltaic components (link here), then silver demand must be collapsing.
The ‘Gap’
The analysis was working fine in the pre-market for shorting the GDXJ (not advice, not a recommendation), but then at the open, there was the gap.
Let’s address that but first get started with the weekly chart of GDXJ
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly
The technical details are clear: Bearish divergence on MACD as well as Fibonacci time correlation.
The original Fibonacci 89-weeks was covered in this post.
Yesterday, there was a gap-lower open and price action kept posting lower.
Will this gap be filled? That’s the question.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the chart implies, was yesterday a breakaway gap?
Price action’s right at support … or slightly below, which technically put us in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.
The ‘Probabilities’
Given the bearish overall condition of this sector both on a technical and fundamental basis, a gap-fill is unlikely … but one has to be prepared.
As stated in the last update, the short position via leveraged inverse JDST was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).
To account for possible gap closure on the inverse JDST, a soft stop (trader discretion) is at 6.80 and below, with an absolute hard stop (no excuses exit) at 6.38 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Let’s go back to the last update on Tesla (TSLA), and see how that analysis is working out:
“Unless we reverse right here and now, Fibonacci retrace and projections (shown below) target the $260 – level for TSLA.”
That was back in early March.
Now, TLSA is currently trading (as of 11:30 a.m., EST) at 246.71, and pushing higher.
The original chart of TSLA, from the March 5th, update is below, followed by current activity.
Tesla TSLA, Daily
Original analysis.
Updated chart (11:15 a.m., EST):
From a trading perspective, TSLA, is being used as a proxy for the market.
That means, if there’s to be a reversal at or near the 259-area, it’s likely the overall market will reverse as well (not advice, not a recommendation).
The ‘Ponzi’ has already been established (the last update). We see the delusion continues with reports like this.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
So, how’s any business going to operate profitably in an environment that’s systematically being disrupted?
Those that could come up with a plan (for their company or business) in such an environment, i.e., the ‘competent‘, are leaving in droves; letting the slackers, back-biters, corporate gossips, and the incompetent, finally have free rein.
This phenomenon likely applies to all major businesses. We already see the entrenchment.
Then, The Fed
Then, there’s the Fed. Surely, when they see how bad things are, they’ll lower rates; Right?
‘When the Fed realizes the economy’s in a recession, they’re going to lower rates‘.
That’s ‘normalcy bias’. We’re in a new construct: There’s no Fed ‘pivot’, rate lowering, or any ‘accommodation’ in sight.
On top of that, some have figured out, things aren’t quite right at the Fed; looks like different ‘forces’ are at work.
Go to time stamp 10:50 at this link (warning, contains profanity).
Then, The ‘Stackers’
So, we’ve gone from stacking toilet paper to stacking what’s thought to be precious metals.
First, it’s fake silver … and then, even the Perth Mint got into the act with ‘diluted’ gold bars.
As stated, years ago, during the Texas Freeze, when it really hits, the grid goes down, nothing’s working, it’s freezing outside, precious metals are nowhere on the list (not advice, not a recommendation).
Then, The VIX
As if all of the above was not giving us clues that something’s about to happen, there’s the VIX.
If you believe the talking heads and ‘finance’ YouTube sites that claim the debt deal will cause massive inflation, well then, let’s pose the following question.
If that was true, why are gold and silver not responding in a huge bull market with upward leaps (a la 1995, S&P) each day, then week and month?
Those close to the market always know something; their actions show up on the tape.
It could be we’ve already past the top in spending …. just by market pressures alone. It’s possible, all that extra allocated ‘pork’ may never get implemented (not advice, not a recommendation).
Lastly, The Miners
The miners GDX, GDXJ, have been in a bear market for years with all-time highs (GDXJ) during the first half of 2011.
Since then, the sector is down over 72%
It’s interesting, that this high stress, physically demanding industry with risk of danger ever present (here, here and here) reached a bear market peak in mid-2020, just as certain ‘items’ were being mandated.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily
As the competent leave the general workforce, would the resulting lack of accountability make itself known first in professions where stupidity causes direct effect in reduced production and/or increased accidents?
The GDXJ is at an interesting juncture.
It’s currently under resistance (blue line) that has already been tested.
At the end of the session today, we’re a Fibonacci 8-Days from the low set on May 25th.
If the index is going to reverse lower from here, this is a likely place to start.
Another attempt at resistance would indicate more upside pressure than anticipated; any existing short positions would be closed (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The ‘Artificial Intelligence’ (AI) clown show’s in full swing with a ‘predicted‘ single quarter target of $11-Billion, from NVDA.
That’s not to be confused with the budget clown show just ended in Washinton D.C.
And where does that leave Tesla? They seem to be left out of the latest round of cult-like insanity.
Back in the day, Dr. Alexander Elder stated, professionals don’t look for the ‘challenge’ in the markets (trying to figure out the NVDA, top), they look for the ‘money’ … there’s a huge difference.
Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle
As of 12:35 p.m., EST, from a technical perspective, even though we’re up for the day (so far), MACD momentum’s increasing to the downside (magenta arrow).
Nobody seems to be paying attention to gold and silver; all eyes are focused on the next shiny object.
Pulling out a bit farther on the weekly, there’s no question we’re in a channel.
The question is, are we (GDXJ) going to say in that channel or reverse from here?
The last update said we’d likely be testing the wedge break and that’s what’s happening.
A ‘test’ will take however long is needed. It’s either pass or fail. Pass in this case is resumption to the downside.
Technical conditions (MACD, wedge break) favor the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).
In addition, we need to keep in mind there’s a new circus in town; the miners may be well on their way to more downside before anyone steps out of the big-top to notice.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One report covering the historic narrowing of the market is here.
Never before seen narrow breadth: What does it mean?
It means the market’s ‘keeping up appearances’ while the foundation’s been removed.
That way, the professionals can get out the door; sell or sell-short, funnel capital to the only three tickers left (AAPL, AMZN, MSFT), while the public looks at the SPY, and says ‘Where’s the collapse?’
Let the crowd focus on the S&P … probably the most computer controlled, AI driven, Machiavellian manipulated market in the world … but hey, I’ve got my i-phone trading app and I’m going to ‘Put it to the man’.
Meanwhile, downside leader biotech, inches lower.
Biotech SPBIO, Daily
Let’s review where we are with SPBIO, with the full understanding that anything can happen.
For now, we’re heading lower (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s obvious. Biotech’s following a Fibonacci time sequence.
Let’s pull out to the larger weekly chart and see something really scary.
Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close
If we really are at the right side of the trading channel, it’s not looking good for the bulls.
Of course, it all makes sense.
The market’s at record breadth divergence. Banks are collapsing, Ukraine (fabricated, or not) coupled with trade wars, the consumer’s tapped-out (credit at maximum) and on it goes.
Positioning
Early this session, the short position in biotech (via LABD) was increased (not advice, not a recommendation).
The table below shows the trading (entry) activity during the on-going reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).
Hard Stop: 16.79
The notation ‘LABD-23-05’, indicates this is the fifth trading campaign (or trade series) in LABD for the year.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
CDC Director Admits Vaccines Do Not Prevent COVID Transmission, Blames “Evolution Of Science”
Throw in a banking crisis or two, credit tightening, supply disruptions and this sector may collapse under the weight of that all by itself (not advice, not a recommendation).
Moving closer in, on a 3-Day chart we see the break and test more clearly.
Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day
We’ll zoom-in on the trend break.
Lastly, going to the 3X Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, on the daily timeframe, it shows a repeating trendline that may be in confirmation during this session (currently, 11:15 a.m. EST).
Biotech Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily
It’s still early in the session and anything can happen.
This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 