Tag Archives: GOLD

Bear Market = Wealth Transfer

April 14, 2025 By in 1987, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist Tags: , , , 1 Comment

The ‘Extraction’ Process

Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.

Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.

The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.

Dodging Bullets

A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.

It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Propaganda

If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.

The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.

There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58

So, here we are. What’s next?

Gold & Silver, Update

Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.

Silver Miners SILJ, Daily

The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.

It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Reversal Ready

February 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Tags: , , , ,

Will The Breakout Hold?

As Ronald Reagan used to say:

‘Here we go again’.

The assessment of the mining sector has not changed in over four-years.

That is, it’s not a bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).

There are trading opportunities for sure but a sustained long-term bull market in the sector (GLD, is a different story), has not materialized.

So, here we are again.

Senior miners GDX, just broke above established resistance. Will it hold with GDX, moving higher?

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Except for the impulse launch higher in March and April of last year, upward movement has been choppy and overlapping.

This type of action is typically classified as ‘corrective’, moving against the main trend.

Since November, downside action has been ‘impulsive’, and upside action, ‘corrective’, shown as solid arrows, dashed arrows, respectively.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners: The (short) Set-Up

January 4, 2025 By in DUST, DUST-25-01, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Setting The Tone, For 2025?

The chess game continues.

If it really was as simple as ‘dollar collapse’ and ‘inflation’, why have the miners GDX, GDXJ, and SILJ, been in a bear market since 2011; fourteen years ago?

During that time, we’ve had rallies for sure. However, the fastest (major) moves with 2016, the exception, have been to the downside.

Drilling down a bit on Senior Miners GDX, we’ll look at the 4-Hour chart.

Senior Miners, GDX, 4-Hour

In the past three months, depending on one’s timeframe, there were trading opportunities both up and down.

With that said, we’re now at the far-right edge.

There’s a (potential) set-up: ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

As noted in yesterday’s update, right around mid-session, a short was opened: DUST-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the expectation is for GDX, to decline immediately from here (DUST, higher) at the next session.

Anything else, suggests a trade failure.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Selling Silver, Below ‘Spot’

December 30, 2024 By in Genesis 41, Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV Tags: , , , ,

Who Could Have Guessed?

Let’s go all the way back (nearly four years ago) to this post, and the following:

“Think of the irony. The ‘stackers’ (and maybe the rest of us), having to exchange actual money, gold and silver, for worthless fiat just so they/we can buy food to stay alive.”

Fast forward to now and this link, time stamp: 6:35.

How close is that to the post from way back when?

Strategy, First

The About section presents the priorities of this site.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus; with three market masters, that were masters of each.

The insight, years ago, was that we’re in a situation not unlike that of Genesis 41. It’s the food supply first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).

With updates like this just out, it’s becoming clear, food is the focus (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Update

The last update on silver (SLV) was back in early October, link here.

Silver’s down over -16%, since then.

It’s even worse for the bulls, including the Rod Stweart reference:

‘Right now, is where you are … in a broken dream’

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver/Gold Miners (crash) Channel

December 18, 2024 By in GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SILJ Tags: , , , ,

Unfolding Quickly

The past two months have seen the miners, GDX, GDXJ, SILJ, reverse down, hit a low, then upside test and now, reverse down again.

For years, the big picture analysis of this sector has been consistently bearish.

Sure, there we upside opportunities but the (more) dynamic moves were to the downside.

All of which, brings us to now.

Senior Miners GDX, Weekly

A sideways market is a bear market; that’s what we’ve had for over four years (not advice, not a recommendation).

A ‘terminating wedge’ taking a year to form has broken to the downside.

Then, an upward recovery (test), that reversed last week, continuing to the downside this week.

Looking to the left on the chart, we see the ‘repeating’ channel.

This notation shows a down-channel of this type has happened before. The market itself, has set its own precedent.

At this juncture, this week’s right -side channel line is declining at approximately -95%, annualized.

Decide for yourself if that type of trend constitutes a ‘crash’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … To ‘Blip’ and Back

December 14, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, Silver Collapse, SLV, Solar Power Tags: , , , ,

A ‘Basic Material’

A ‘blip’ is all there was.

The last update on silver SLV (link here), had this to say:

“The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.”

Well, SLV got that far, just barely, held for three days and then reversed, ending the week down.

While the hyperinflation mania rages on, click-bait by click-bait, the market itself tells us the truth … or the more probable truth.

That truth (below), silver (SLV), is poised for a series of downside reversals (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver SLV, Monthly

One ‘terminating wedge’ within another; upside Force (pressure) is declining and bearish divergent (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver may be considered a basic material like copper (also in decline) with over half of production used for industrial applications.

The COP-OUT

There’s dissent in the ranks.

As economies are stressed or fracture world-wide, the amount of free money available for ‘games’ essentially evaporates.

Case in point is here.

Already shown, the effects of economic decline (silver demand) with solar company bankruptcies, link here.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver … One More ‘Blip’?

December 1, 2024 By in Biotech, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, SILJ, SLV, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI-24-01 Tags: 1 Comment

Setting Up, For The Downside

The next trade (lower) could be in silver itself, or it could be in the Junior Miners, GDXJ, and/or SILJ, the sectors (ETFs) most susceptible (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last time silver had a major downswing was in early-to-late 2022; tracking fund SLV, declined about -35%, top-to-bottom.

During the same period, Junior Miners GDXJ, declined over -50%, so take your pick.

Silver SLV, closed out last week penetrating downside support and then moving (inching) back higher.

We should all know what that means. 🙂

Silver SLV, Weekly

Silver penetrates support and then retraces; Wyckoff ‘spring’ position (not advice, not a recommendation).

The 50% retrace area is shown. It will be interesting to see if SLV, gets that far.

Perhaps more interesting from a set-up standpoint, is what GDXJ, and SILJ, will be doing if and when that happens.

Positioning: SLV & Miners

The mining sector has been ‘out-of-favor’ since this update years ago.

Since that time and looking at the charts, the most dynamic (fastest action) trade opportunities, were to the downside.

There are no open positions in this sector at this time (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning: Biotech, XBI-24-01

Separately, as stated in this update, the short trade in biotech (via XBI) was brief.

It was stopped out with a loss of 0.15-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Silver … Slammed !!!

November 16, 2024 By in Dollar, Gold & Silver, Great Depression 2.0, SLV, UUP, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge, zsl Tags: , , 1 Comment

What’s Next?

We can see how the typical ‘investor’ would be angry; having believed the hype about silver’s imminent ‘hyperinflation’ launch.

Pontificating hype like, silver’s going to ‘catch up’ with gold, ‘go along for the ride’, ‘close the gap’, massive ‘physical demand’.

Well, this so–called ‘launch’ (so far), is not only not happening, but appears to be in a bearish divergence downside reversal … What???

Setting The Stage

From the recent high set on October 22-nd, to the close on Friday, Silver (SLV) is down -13.3%, a decent hit, but not quite a wipe-out, yet.

Putting that brief opportunity in perspective, during the same period 2X Inverse Fund ZSL, is up over 31.5%.

For a clue on what might be coming next, we’ll go to this anecdote, link here.

The so-called ‘environmentalists’ don’t even believe their own hype.

Not only that, if we’re already in an economic collapse, then silver, an industrial metal, is subject to the same forces.

Pulling Back The Curtain

If or when the new administration takes office (January 20th, is a long way away), we can expect a lot of truth (but not all of it) to come out.

That’s already starting, with the blow-up in biotech.

Random Thought: Wasn’t the dollar supposed to collapse by now? But, I digress.

Lets’ get back to silver (SLV), and what the price action is telling us.

Silver SLV, Weekly

With the situation below, what’s the most likely event for the coming week?

We’ve had four down-weeks in a row. Price action’s at the wedge boundary (blue line) and minor support (black dashed line).

Last week was a narrow range bar with less overall volume than the week prior.

Therefore, the most likely event, is an attempt to retrace the prior four weeks of down action (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont … Whacked!

October 24, 2024 By in Catherine Austin Fitts, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Greg Hunter, IWM, NEM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, TLT Tags: ,

Just The Start?

Has Newmont (NEM) started the reversal?

From a price action standpoint, we have an outside down weekly bar as well as (potential) monthly reversal.

Despite fever-pitch, ‘the world’s ending’ talk on gold and (supposed) silver breakouts, we’re reminded here (time stamp 3:10) to expect a downward spike in gold should there be (serious) international trouble (not advice, not a recommendation).

Newmont’s the largest cap in the GDX; let’s take a look at the sector.

Senior Miners, GDX, Weekly

GDX, in the same vein as IWM, NVDA, SOXX, SPY, and TLT (to name a few), posting its own terminating wedge.

Noted in the chart, GDX has entered back into the wedge formation after a ‘throw-over’; typically, a bearish sign (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279