Gold & Silver, Timeline’s End ?

Government, Is Always Last

The laws enacted by the Government to prevent the crash of 1929, were passed in 1934.

So, now we have at least two states (here and here) eliminating sales tax on the purchase of gold and silver.

Where were they way back in 2001, as the metals were bottoming?

Interestingly (then again, not) it’s a Fibonacci 21-years, nearly to the day, from that 2001 bottom.

That’s not the only Fibonacci correlation being observed.

Let’s take a look at Junior Miners GDXJ, and see if it too, has a Fibonacci event.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly

We’re just one week short of Fibonacci 13-Weeks, from the late January 2022, bottom.

One extra week is well within margin of error when considering the 89-Week timeframe as shown.

But wait, there’s more.

Looking at the daily chart, not only is there a bearish MACD divergence, we’re also just one day shy before it’s a Fibonacci 55-Days, from the 1/28/22, bottom.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Can it all line up this perfectly?

Well, it can if no one is watching; that’s where the crowd and the government come in.

Summary

It’s a fairly safe assessment, nobody expects a downside reversal … nobody.

Even though time and again, we have clues that opportunity for precious metals may come later not sooner (not advice, not a recommendation).

The lockdowns in Shanghai with subsequent starvation and bartering (here and here), show under such conditions, precious metals are nowhere on the list.

Closer to home, the Texas Freeze of 2021, exposed that (lack of metals demand) as well.

Housing prices are starting to ease-off as well as prices for used cars.

Gold (GLD) may have reached its peak, March 8th, this year. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds Down … Real Estate, Next ?

Visions of 2008 ?

The Head & Shoulders pattern on the weekly chart of IYR, could mean reversal ahead.

Price action’s been attempting to move higher over the past twelve trading days.

‘Attempting’, because it’s not making any significant net progress.

Essentially, we’ve got what’s called ‘evidence of a struggle’ where the bulls may be exhausting themselves.

The last update on bonds (TLT), said they’re at the danger point where an upside reversal was possible.

That update also said:

“At this juncture, there’s either a reversal and much higher levels or down, with rates higher; in turn, leading to the subsequent collapse of real-estate, a-la 2007 – 2008.

Since then, bonds are lower, rates higher. Housing affordability has collapsed.

Real Estate, IYR, Weekly

At this point it’s a clear H&S, pattern.

The daily chart shows IYR, oscillating around an axis, support/resistance line; struggling to move higher (in up-thrust condition) with no real progress.

As with bonds in the April 3rd, update, we’re at the danger point with IYR.

A decisive move below the axis (blue) line would indicate the bulls may be exhausted.

Because price action’s been in this range for over two weeks, lends support to the possibility any breakdown (or breakout higher), may be a sustained, directional move.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Putin’s Gold … Paradigm, Not

‘Nothing New Under The Sun’

Remember the ‘Silver Short-Squeeze‘?

How the little guy was finally going to ‘put it to the man’; forcing the SLV, ETF, to admit they don’t have enough physical silver to cover?

How did that work out?

Same as it always has … it was a non-event.

Now, we have a supposed paradigm shift the ‘world’ has yet to fully process.

Paradigm, Not

The ‘paradigm’ link above, promulgates the intended or mistaken notion, there are two sides to world events.

Sorry Charlie, operations at world government level(s) are working in how shall we say, ‘lockstep’?

Nothing is a surprise.

So it is with gold. At least it is at this juncture while always keeping in mind, anything can happen.

Gold, GLD, Weekly Close

The message of the weekly close, is straightforward.

We’re at the danger point. The location where it won’t take much to move price in either direction.

If we really are in a ‘new paradigm’, by definition, gold (GLD) must move to new highs.

If other governments world-wide are shifting to gold-backed currencies, by definition, demand will increase and move prices higher.

Higher by not just a one-day blip of 10 – 20 points or even a hundred … but thousands.

It could happen.

In the longer time frame, that may indeed be the case. However, at this point, we have something else afoot.

The Famine, Cometh

Gold has never been the same since the Derecho of 2020.

In fact, that was the pivot point for both gold and corn which are now, inversely correlated.

Here are just a few recent links concerning the food supply; here, here, here and here.

That last one … what a great way to cover the outcome of this link.

It’s a slow-motion train-wreck that’s obvious to anyone that can see.

Summary

Just like there was no ‘new economy’ during the Dot-Com bubble, there’s no ‘new paradigm’, now (not advice, not a recommendation).

The focus remains on what the price action, the market, is saying about itself.

At this juncture, GLD, is at the danger point.

The presence of huge volume during the week of March 11th, suggests a changing of hands from strong to weak.

That in turn, points probability to weak upside (if any) and more likely sideways, or down.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell … Hovering At Target Level

Price Action Confirming Fibonacci

It’s just past midway through the session.

The weekly chart of Russell 2000 IWM, is hovering at the first projection level … 23.6%.

Russell 2000, IWM, Weekly

We’ll get closer in, using the 4-Hour chart

Note how price action is oscillating about the 23.6%, level.

This type of behavior provides confirmation the market ‘respects’ that level.

Note in the weekly chart, there are no fewer than six weekly bars (including this week) that either had an open or close, near 23.6%.

As this post is being created, the market appears to be pivoting out and down from this area.

It may be on its way to lower levels (not advice not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell, Low(s) In Late June ?

Cycles & Fibonacci

Both time cycles and Fibonacci are aligned … targeting intermediate low(s) for the Russell (IWM), in June.

This post, released late on Monday, showed a potential reversal set-up for the IWM.

The next morning (yesterday), saw a sharp, brief move higher which quicky reversed into a sustained decline.

That decline continues during this session.

The weekly chart of IWM is below; marked up with a Fibonacci time sequence.

Russell 2000, IWM, Weekly

Week 34, identified with the back font, represents a 1 : 1, Fibonacci projection of the initial leg down.

Week 34, in the magenta font, is a 1 : 1.618 projection of the same initial move.

These are projections only (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s a time cycle study available at this link.

Go to time stamp 8:27, for the Russell 2000. The method is different, but the projection is similar; heading lower into early Summer (mid to late June).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000 … Hit & Run ?

Up-Thrust And Test

Shorts Covered ?


Russell 2000, attempts to break through resistance; reverses and then tests (Monday), just as ZeroHedge says the short squeeze is over.

There’s a lot of trying-to-make-everything-look-complicated, wording in the link above but the take-away is, the market may be finished with the recent short squeeze.

At this juncture, Russell 2000 (IWM) looks like it’s hit long-time resistance around the 211, area and reversed.

The past two trading days may have tested that reversal.

IWM, Daily Close

The support (blue line), now turned resistance has been in-effect for over a year.

The zoomed version below shows it’s clear, at this juncture, price action’s not penetrating resistance.

As with bonds in this report, we’re at the danger point.

This is where risk is least for either short or long (not advice, not a recommendation).

Naturally, with the ZeroHedge report (above) saying that shorts have been effectively covered, price action direction favors the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279


Bonds (TLT), At The Danger Point

Where Risk Is Least

Bonds are at the danger point; poised for upside reversal.

Upside?

Bonds up, rates down, is that even possible?

The weekly chart of long bond proxy TLT, is below. It’s not called ‘the danger point’ for nothing.

Weekly, TLT

The danger point is not the top or bottom of a move.

It’s the area where risk is least for either direction. Where the cost of being wrong is reduced as much as possible.

Getting closer-in on the weekly, price action has penetrated support (blue line) and has stopped-dead, so far.

Note the bullish divergence in MACD and MACD lines. It’s not a strong divergence but it’s there.

Next, we have a (bullish) wedge pattern. It’s a big one that took over a year to post.

The False Narrative

If one is serious about their work in the markets, eventually there’s a realization, every narrative is false. The media serves the purpose of the owners and nothing else.

The repeal of the Smith-Mundt act in 2012, allows them to be in complete propaganda mode.

They’re under no obligation to print (or broadcast) anything near the truth, going whole-hog on that ‘freedom’ and fleecing the public at will.

Using that premise, we can say the ‘inflation’ narrative is false or at least twisted; partially true.

The Bond Sell-Off

With incessant dollar ‘collapse’, dollar ‘end of the road’, inflation ‘rampant’, yada-yada, day after day, it’s no wonder bonds have sold off.

At this juncture, there’s either a reversal and much higher levels or down, with rates higher; in turn, leading to the subsequent collapse of real-estate, a-la 2007 – 2008.

Summary

Would I personally be a bond buyer at this point … no. I’m not keen on buying the debt, any debt of a bankrupt nation (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s important to note, if bonds do rally, the catalyst may be a perverse ‘flight to safety’ on the public’s part resulting from significant downside in the overall markets.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Will Corn Take A Hit ?

Oil First, Then Corn?

The ‘administration’, if you can call it that, is messing around in the food and financial markets as planned.

Well, almost.

Oil seems to be the focus at this point; virtue signaling using the SPR as the candidate du jour.

Could corn be the next target for ‘help’ such as halting all (or enough) exports to tank the price?

Remember the objective here, is to destroy production.

Anyone with two spike proteins rubbing together, should be able to see that plan (time stamp 5:35) hiding in plain sight.

We’re in full propaganda mode; hypnotizing the masses to think someone thousands of miles away is the bad guy.

Why not use that ruse to toy with the corn market as is being done with oil.

‘It’ll never happen’ … right, just like oil futures could never go negative.

If it does happen or something similar, that’s the opportunity.

CORN, Weekly Chart

The last update had the potential for a retrace and spring set-up, at the 17- 18, area on the chart.

Corn has moved higher with no major price hit, yet.

As said, it might never happen.

If it does, and soon, that support area (at this juncture) is near a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace as shown below.

Looking at the chart, it’s also clear, CORN is at significant, long-term, resistance.

Two Ways To Trade

One is shown above, via CORN. The other is the futures market itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

CORN tracking fund provides ‘exposure’ as their documentation says. However, it does not provide ‘leverage’.

That’s what the futures market does.

Summary

If going the futures route, downside risk needs to be removed as much as possible.

One way for that to happen is an ‘announcement’, similar to the Carter grain embargo, likely to cause a huge (temporary) price collapse.

Until then … we wait.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bulls in Danger … FXI

Deep Kimchi Ahead ?

Even before the exit could be made in YANG, the FXI reverses this morning’s marginal highs and heads lower.

The chart below is an update of prior analysis (at this link) showing upward progress, in percent.

Less net travel with each thrust.

FXI, Daily Chart

As this post is being created, FXI price action continues to erode … signs of exhausted bulls.

FXI can’t seem to get out of its current trading range.

Each attempt fails (with less energy than before) and price action falls back into the range.

Maintaining short via YANG, YANG-22-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

At this juncture, it’s still early in the session and price action could reverse higher.

However, it’s obvious now, barring some kind of catalyst, the area above FXI, 33.70 – 33.80, presents significant resistance.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

How to Handle a ‘Gut Check’

Pre-Market FXI, Shows Sharply Higher Open

The daily chart of FXI below has pre-market action as the blue line.

Currently, we’re sharply higher but still below the March 30th, high.

FXI, Daily Chart

The next chart shows the March 29th, recovery high.

For the market to continue a next leg higher, obviously, it needs to penetrate that high.

Inverse (YANG) Fund Tracking Errors

At this juncture, about 30-minutes before the open, YANG is trading at 14.01 – 14.09, slightly below the 14.16, stop.

Even though FXI is not above the March 30th high (used to locate the YANG stop), the inverse fund is trading slightly below that stop level.

This is the tracking error that’s common with every leveraged inverse fund.

Trading Action

We’re either in a ‘gut check’ upward move in FXI, before reversing to lower lows, or it’s the start of a next leg up.

Words of wisdom from the late David Weis … ‘Prove it’.

If this is the next leg higher, FXI must first penetrate the March 30th, high of 33.62, then penetrate the March 29th high of 33.73.

Using that requirement (of higher highs), the plan is to partial exit YANG if/when FXI penetrates the 33.62 high and full exit at penetration of FXI: 33.73 (not advice not a recommendation).

Summary

With each price action move, FXI is successively removing the probability of repeating the same action(s).

We had a short-covering gap higher during the week of March 18th. That massive volume move is not likely to be repeated.

We now have what may be a ‘gut-check’ move testing current highs. This move would also join the ranks of price action that’s not likely to be repeated.

If FXI, is unable to move higher from this juncture, it weights the probability even more to the downside.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279