Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Real Estate Reversal

October 3, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-24-05, Interest Rates, IYR, LABD, LABD-24-19, Real Estate, SPBIO, TLT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Sudden Turn

Watch for failed moves.

When an apparent move fails, it tells you the other side’s exhausted.

That’s when the sharks move in.

It could be happening to IYR, right now; yesterday’s ‘reversal’ bar, has failed (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last update on the sector, link here gave a head’s up, a reversal appeared likely.

Now, we have more confirmation with the failed move shown below.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

Yesterday, IYR, had penetrated support (blue line) and was in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position.

That spring (set-up) has failed.

Now, it gets interesting.

Bonds (TLT) continue lower with rates continuing higher; the exact opposite of what the public thinks is ‘supposed’ to happen.

Positioning

Naturally, with the above conditions a short was opened DRV-24-05, with the stop at DRV’s session low @ 23.89 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, the short on XBI (LABD-24-19) is not performing as expected. Today is lower but there’s no new daily low (as of 11:55 a.m., EST).

Position was exited with a loss of – 2.48%.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Set-Up, Part II

October 2, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-19, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, SPBIO, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Testing Trendline

Biotech never made it to the 99.75-area from the last update.

However, it did post an up-thrust, topping out at 99.65, just 0.10-pts from target.

This is how it is … for the scientific types, good luck with calculating where the market ‘should’ go. 🙂

Evidently, getting within 0.10-points from a 38.2% retrace was ‘good enough’; XBI reversed from there.

Biotech XBI, Daily

If this is a trendline of some importance, we’re still in the very early stages (not advice, not a recommendation).

Anything can happen and XBI, could close higher.

A new daily low was posted early in the session and price action is currently attempting to ‘spring’ off that low.

Positioning

As noted, a short is open (LABD-24-19); it may be a ‘day trade’ if XBI does not close lower for the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, based on price action, SOXS-24-17, was closed with a 13.1%, profit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Semi Industry at Risk?

October 1, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Livermore, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Potential Bottleneck

‘Surprises tend to come in the direction of trend’; Jesse Livermore

The potential all-time high (reversal) for Nvidia along with the A.I. bubble, was identified here and here.

If that analysis holds (it is, so far), we’re either in sideways congestion or outright reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

A Funny Thing Happened

If its reversal, that’s when funny things start to happen.

Like the only ultra-pure quartz mining operation in the world; used for semiconductors, possibly knocked off-line.

That kind of funny.

This article, link here, details potential risk to the semi-industry.

It doesn’t look like the semis’ are waiting around to find out.

The SOXX, just opened lower, currently trading lower (as of 9:42 a.m., EST).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

If yesterday was the (up-thrust) test, it was on contracting volume when compared to September 26th’s, resistance penetration.

With this post coming out just before the open on the 27th, the implication was, a short position was about to be opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Entry in SOXS, was at 18.87, early in the session on the 27th; hard stop @ 18.60, the day’s low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Trade labeled SOXS-24-17.

Speculator’s Notes

The objective here is not necessarily to be ‘right’, but to minimize the risk.

With a ‘risk’ (distance between entry and stop) of just 0.27-points, a sizeable position can be opened.

Example. A ‘risk’ of $1,000 means position size is around 3,700 shares of SOXS.

At yesterday’s closing price (20.25), the position of 3,700 shares, would now be up a modest but decent $5,100.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Set-Up, In Progress

September 30, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, SPBIO, XBI 1 Comment

Nearing The Danger Point®

Biotech, XBI, has pushed itself higher into a potential Up-Thrust (reversal) condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

If XBI gets to the 99.75, area, it’s a 38.2% retrace form the high set on September 19th, to the lows on the 26th.

Biotech XBI, Daily

Today is Fibonacci Day 8, from the highs of September 19th.

When downside momentum started to fade, short trade, LABD-24-18, was closed on the 27th, for a profit of 11.76%.

If XBI gets to the 38.2% area and stalls, it may present another low-risk opportunity for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Good News/Bad News … Micron

September 29, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, MU, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-17, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Massive Volume & Gap

From a Wyckoff and David Weis analysis perspective, wide high-volume, price bars tend to be tested.

What does that tell us (to anticipate) with Micron’s huge gap-up with volume?

When we go to the chart, we see more … a lot more.

Frist off, let’s not forget, Micron’s Number Nine, in market cap within the SOXX, tracking ETF.

Its price action behavior (significantly) affects the index.

Micron Technology MU, Daily

We’ve got a (possible) Head & Shoulders. with an Up-Thrust, precipitated by good news (here and here).

It’s been 70 (trading) Days since Nvidia hit all-time highs; a high forecasted, then confirmed here and here:

Back then, was this:

“With the prior update letting us know the air is going out of support for continued A.I., today’s action may be a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).”

It was significant. Nvidia has not been there since.

Implications

The implication with the (still holding) Nvidia top, is the A.I. bubble has burst.

Possibly the largest asset bubble in world history.

What we’re seeing with Micron, is potentially the last gasps of short covering, with an attempt to mount a rally in an overall deflating market (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes on Bonds … Rates Higher

September 28, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, Michael Bordenaro, TLT Tags: , , , , , , ,

Pulling Back The Curtain

Rates not going lower but higher as reported here, now being confirmed by ‘boots-on-the-ground’, link here.

With rates moving higher now, the next Fed meeting after the ‘election’, seems a long time away.

Exact Opposite

As Michael Bordenaro reported (link) above, ‘everybody’ expected rates to fall because, well, you know … The Fed 🙂

As he states, the exact opposite is what’s happening.

Well, ladies and gentlemen, the curtain’s being pulled back on a lot of things. The Fed’s in ‘control’ is just one of them.

So, let’s take a look at bonds, then and now.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

That was then.

Fast-forward, to now.

Price patterns can dissipate or stay ‘in-effect’.

The measured move target shows where bonds are likely to go, if the pattern stays in effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, bonds lower, means rates higher.

Get your popcorn ready and let’s watch how the media’s going to spin this one.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX Top (again)

September 27, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX 1 Comment

Rocky & Bullwinkle

Question:

How many times does Bullwinkle try to pull a rabbit out of a hat?

Answer:

It never stops.

So, it seems with the SOXX. How many times do we think we’re at a top?

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

Yesterday, was Fibonacci ‘Day 55’ from the all-time-high.

Note, we’re also at the Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace as well.

It’s about 15-minutes from the regular session open. Let’s see what happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Real Estate … Rolls Over

September 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, IYR, Real Estate, TLT 2 Comments

Ruh, Roh

The bond market’s reversed; rates are moving higher.

Real estate’s bid up as if rates are heading lower, not higher; what could go wrong?

It’s been seven consecutive lower closes (rates higher) in the bond market, TLT, starting before the Fed has its conference last Wednesday.

This morning, bonds, TLT have just posted another daily low; if it stays there, will make it a Fibonacci eight days of consecutive lower closes.

Let’s cut to the chase and go to real estate.

Real Estate IYR, Daily

We’re right at the trendline and threatening lower.

Declining volume implies the energy and commitment to higher prices is fading (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver’s Bearish Divergence

September 25, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, NVDA, SLV Tags: 2 Comments

Prepare for Hysteria

If you know something’s coming, then you can keep your head when it actually happens.

Nothing seems to bring out the (dollar collapse) pundits more than precious metals and specifically silver; we can throw in Nvidia as well, but that’s another story.

Strategically, Wyckoff analysis all the way back to April, of this year has proven correct.

That is, silver is not launching into some kind of hyperinflation breakout; it would have already done so.

No, silver is either preparing for a downside reversal or sideways congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

We have one datapoint after another, the consumer is strapped; corporations, industries using silver are collapsing, going bankrupt; bullion dealers themselves have said silver demand has evaporated and on it goes.

With that, let’s look at what silver (SLV) is telling us.

Silver SLV Tracking ETF, Weekly

As of this post (10:45 a.m., EST), silver (SLV) is nearing yesterday’s high of 29.44

We’ve got a weekly bearish divergence that will be in effect if there’s a breakout and downside reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, the question is, what happens if/when we get a breakout?

One thing is almost for sure, the ‘dollar collapse’ pundits, YouTubers et al., will be out in force. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech, Fibonacci, & The Tape

September 24, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-18, Livermore, Loeb, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI Tags: , , , ,

Reversal of Significance

Wyckoff (tape reading) analysis identified the potential reversal in XBI.

In the past two days of trading, biotech XBI, is decisively lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, there’s more to this story.

As we’ll see below, Fibonacci is at work as well.

Biotech XBI, Daily Close

From closing high on 2/27/24, to closing high on 9/19/24, was a Fibonacci 144 days (minus one).

Ladies and Gentlemen, it doesn’t get much better 🙂

The black lines show resistance penetration, up-thrust and reversal.

Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb

The trading methods of the three market masters above, can be summarized as:

Strategy, Tactics and Focus.

Livermore’s method of ‘what’s going to happen in a (potential) big way’, pointed to biotech.

Wyckoff’s analysis was used to identify (to the day), the potential for a significant reversal.

Loeb, who is less known, was the former Vice Chairman of E.F. Hutton, disparaged ‘diversification’ as the ‘averaging of errors’; meaning, if you don’t know what you’re doing (in the markets), you ‘diversify.’

We can see all three at work in the selection to go short biotech via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fixing Errors

For those watching, you got to see up close and personal a trading error on shorting the SOXX; specifically, an -11.6%, hit, link here.

As of this post, four trading days later, that loss has been fully recovered and then some.

This is how should be done.

Clear the mind, look for (don’t force) another opportunity, get to back to business.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279