Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Is Today, ‘The Day’, for Nvidia?

September 13, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-16, SOXX 2 Comments

Fibonacci Time Correlations

Scuttlebutt from the Goldman Sachs technology conference, with chief cook and bottle washer Nvidia, had at least one journalist (do we still have those?) breathless, ecstatic (paraphrasing):

‘Never has there been so much euphoria’.

These links show how Fibonacci influenced potential, and then confirmation, of the all-time top and reversal.

As we’ll see below, price action continues with Fibonacci.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

This week, is ‘Week 13’, from the all-time high.

Fibonacci correlations continue on the daily.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

So far as of 1:53 p.m., EST, it’s an inside day for NVDA, with yesterday as the potential ‘short squeeze’, retrace high.

Yesterday was also a Fibonacci 5-days, from the most recent low (Day 55).

Retrace High

As is typically the case, the crowd is still euphoric (maybe even more so) long after the high.

This is typical ‘bubble’ behavior … the party goes on (even harder) as the ship goes down (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s ‘Power-Play’ … Part II

September 12, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXS-24-16, SOXX, ZeroHedge

Wide Swaths of Instability

The last report on Nvidia, link here, nailed-it.

It said that demand had evaporated as seen by Force Index (thrust energy).

Nvidia went on to plunge over 15% before yesterday’s (what must have been a) short squeeze.

Coupled with that, was short trade (SOXS-24-15) in the Semiconductor Index (not advice, not a recommendation).

Yesterday, pre-market action (being short) for SOXX, did not look right; that position was exited just after the open.

Net profit for SOXS-24-15, was about +23.25%.

The whole scenario shows the importance of having the price action itself dictate the trading action.

The squeeze ‘excuse’ was the CEO of Nvidia giving a speech, then going off to sign women’s breasts … I’m not making this up.

All of which brings us to the chart.

We’re keeping the same Fibonacci 8-Day timeframe as the previous update.

Nvidia NVDA, 8-Day

There’s a lot going in with this chart.

First: Price action has become wide and unstable.

Second: The completed 8-Day, bar posted the deepest downside thrust energy ever.

Positioning

Once again, everyone has their own method and style.

With that, understanding where we could be in this market environment, i.e., the throws of reversal, another (tentative) short was opened in the SOXX (not advice, not a recommendation).

The stop on this trade (SOXS-24-16) is very tight … to be set near the (SOXS) lows of the session.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s Collision Course

September 11, 2024 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA

Date With Destiny

Anyone with two piston-rings rubbing together knows, the car industry is in chaos if not full-blown collapse, links here, here, and here.

We also ‘know’ that Carvana’s financial results have reached the realm of ‘interesting‘.

The last update on Carvana proposed that price action might continue on to a 50% retrace.

So far, it’s not happening.

In fact, it looks like CVNA, has decided to roll-over.

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

Price action has formed a terminating wedge, currently testing the bottom … potentially near a breakout to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s about ten minutes after the open; CVNA is trading down 2.14-pts @ 128.58, hovering around the bottom wedge line.

Because CVNA, has such an ‘interesting’ business model, if and when we get a surprise, price action could move faster than anyone thought possible (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Chaos & Order

September 10, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

Rule of Alternation

The SOXX reversal from the July 11th high, to the Monday morning August 5th (panic) low, was chaos.

Wide price gaps, huge intra-day percentage swings.

Then, there was a rebound to the August 22, high when the next (potential) leg down started.

Note the difference in SOXX behavior thus far; a steady decline that’s orderly.

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

So far, the SOXX is continuing its next leg lower in an orderly fashion.

There’s no telling on how long this will last.

Possibly, after the Fed announcement next week, one could expect a ‘change of character’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Boom & Bust, of A.I.

September 9, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Mises Institute, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

How Low Can It Go?

Since the A.I. money’s already been made on the upside, it could be time for the bears to set the hook on the shakeout, driving the Semiconductor sector farther down.

This just out from the Mises Institute; author Justin Murray argues, A.I. is essentially an expensive hype, that’s run its course.

With that, we’re not going to belabor whether A.I., is a bubble, a scam, a grift, or not.

No, we’ll let the price action itself make the case. 🙂

It’s hard to argue with the reality of the chart

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily

If the trading channel remains in effect, we can see the downside potential is enormous (not advice, not a recommendation).

The arrow shows the entry location of the current, active short: SOXS-24-15.

Since that initial entry and with nearly each price rebound, the short size has been increased (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stops Are Tight

It’s important to note, as of this post (11:38 a.m., EST), the SOXX has not (yet) made a new daily low.

In the markets anything can happen. We could always get an upside reversal.

However, from a seasonality standpoint, September is typically the worst (downside) month of the year.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bookmark This Page …

September 8, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Gold & Silver, Interest Rates, One Way Pockets, SLV, Solar Power

We’ll Be Back

No sooner had yesterday’s post been published, than a scant few hours later, we have this:

Silver, hero of the ‘new economy’.

What new economy?

That would be Solar Energy and Artificial Intelligence; two bubbles that have already popped (not advice, not a recommendation).

Going a bit farther back to this post, a proposal that more distribution takes place on the way down, than up.

At least, that’s the way it was back in 1917, when this text was first published.

Is what we see here, touting a premise that’s already expired, not the same (distribution) script of a century ago?

Bookmark & Back

As was done with this post where the ‘Fed Pivot’ was discussed, now renamed to ‘rate cut’, the page was bookmarked and reviewed six months later.

That review was in the summer of last year!

Of course, there was no Fed Pivot (rate cut) to be found.

So, we’ll do the same here but with a caveat.

That is, silver may indeed rise in price for reasons discussed many times (miner implosion).

However, we’re really focused on that ‘new economy’.

Let’s see if six months from now, we’re all humming along in a Brave New World.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver & Solar

September 7, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, CDE, Federal Reserve, GORO, Great Depression 2.0, HL, Interest Rates, NEXA, PAAS, SLV, Solar Power, TLT, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

Looks Like Demand Has Evaporated

Those who ‘drank the Kool-Aide’ about silver being bolstered to astronomical heights because, you know, ‘solar energy’, must be a little upset by now.

Just like the fabled ‘interest rate cut’, it’s not happening.

Although for interest rates, we’re just shy of two weeks away to find out; meanwhile, since the last report, the bond market has been bid up again, pushing rates down (again), so, we’ll see.

Back to silver.

We have yet another so-called ‘green energy’ company going bankrupt. That’s not so much news, except for this statement from the report (paraphrasing):

‘Solar demand has declined across the entire industry’

Um, it’s called an economic depression (not advice, not a recommendation).

While we’re talking collapse, let’s just throw in the Chat GPT (Artificial Intelligence) collapse as well, link here.

With all of that as the backdrop, let’s see what silver is up to these days.

Silver, SLV ETF, Weekly

A terminating wedge with an MACD crossover.

We’re at the spot with price could go either way. There has been no wedge breakout to the upside, or down.

If we do get an upside breakout, the position of the MACD is set-up for a potential bearish divergence.

Covered many times on this site; the possibility that precious metals could move higher as a result of the miners imploding.

Adding to that idea are the components of tracking SILJ, silver miner EFT. How many of these outfits have an actual P/E?

PAAS does not, HL … no, CDE … no, NEXA … no, GORO … no, and on it goes.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Downside Targets

September 6, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX

The Bears Take Control

Just like the image at left, Nvidia looks like it’s ‘strapped in’, for the ride down (not advice, not a recommendation).

The upside doesn’t last forever and neither does the downside … unless of course, you go bankrupt. 🙂

With that, let’s see where Nvidia may be going.

Note: Recall, the potential for a top, was identified two weeks ahead of time, then confirmed.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

We’ll cut straight to the chase and show how price action is ‘respecting’ the Fibonacci projections (thus far).

With price action in the SOXX, confirming yesterday’s trendline ‘artistic license‘ post, at this point, it appears the downside for the sector is well underway (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The SOXX Drop

September 5, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-24-15, SOXX 1 Comment

Hardest Part … Waiting

Back in the day, Robert Prechter Jr., said it himself (paraphrasing):

‘You can reap a windfall, just by monitoring a trendline’

Of course, the hard part is identifying the trendline … if there even is one.

Implied with that, already being in position to take advantage of that trendline.

Building The Trade

Positioning short in the SOXX (via SOXS) has been a process of iteration; from SOXS-24-12, until now, SOXS-24-15 (not advice, not a recommendation).

All of those trades have been documented on this site.

Note: Enter the trade number (or, copy-paste) into the search window and then click on the sidebar to get chronology of all posts related to that trade.

With the SOXX, opening down, yet again, one has to ask; is there a trendline and if so, where is it?

Semiconductors, SOXX, Daily Close

I’m taking artistic license to draw where I perceive is the current right-side trendline.

Also note, this update is being released with about 90-minutes left in the session.

The closing price is yet unknown.

Going forward, price action itself will either confirm or negate the right side.

Positioning

As shown on the chart, the current (active) short trade, via SOXS, was opened last Friday at the ‘False Breakout’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

With price action continuing lower, it would be nice for this position to become a boring series of actions; moving the stop until the trend break and/or exit.

All the while, keep in mind, we don’t know what our ‘October Surprise’ is going to be … yet.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Massive Top (Reversal) … Merck

September 4, 2024 By in Biotech, David Weis, Dr. Elder, Drug Manufacturers, MRK, Semiconductors, Wyckoff

Right Along, With Semis’

Those ready (positioning) for this potential historic reversal in the major indices, are at long last getting the sense, ‘The jig is up’.

As Dr. Elder has said, ‘the markets will hypnotize you’. They will lull you to sleep and then reverse with a vengeance.

So, it may be with our example of the day, Merck (MRK).

No-Brainer … To Brain-Dead

Back in the day when posting on SeekingAlpha, Merck was a no-brainer amongst the grifter crowd.

Since fundamentals don’t move markets, and Merck continued to grind higher week after week, month after month, one could publish any amount of ‘research’ and look like a genius.

Oh, how times have changed.

As we’ll see below, Merck has been in a massive topping pattern, or Wyckoff Up-Thrust.

Merck, MRK, Weekly

There’s a lot going on with this chart.

It’s been about seven-months of grinding at the highs, only to break down on heavy volume the week of August 6th.

Then, it was five weeks of ratcheting higher in a test, reversing this week.

Note the testing action was in response to the wide high-volume bar.

As David Weis said in his video, wide high-volume bars tend to be tested; here we see evidence of that action.

As always, anything can happen and Merck could levitate higher. However, we can see just from the chart alone, that prospect looks like a low probability (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279