Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Yesterday tested the reversal from Monday’s false breakout.
David Weis used to call such action a ‘gut-check’ to see if you could hang on to your (short) position.
Even so, today could be the more important day.
The question is: Will biotech XBI, post a new daily low, confirming the test or levitate on the next (perceived) health ‘crisis‘.
Biotech XBI, Daily
It’s about fifteen-minutes before the regular open. XBI, is trading lower, giving us a hint, yesterday completed the test (not advice, not a recommendation).
If we get a new daily low, it’s possible there’s a trading channel with pivot point at Fibonacci 21-Days.
Positioning
The side bar shows an active short: LABD-25-03.
As a result of yesterday’s action, the stop on that trade has been moved higher to LABD 7.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.
Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂
Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.
David Weis 1980s
Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.
He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):
‘We considered none of these things …’
That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.
With that, we have Carvana.
Carvana CVNA, Daily
What can be said?
After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.
This post is coming out before the regular open.
CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.
The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.
While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.
Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.
Middle East conflict escalates.
The question is, will the markets see it that way?
Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?
If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).
Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close
Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.
At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.
If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.
Then & Now
With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?
The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.
We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The article at this link says the cancellation move was ‘unexpected’.
Clicking on ‘Artificial Intelligence’, (side-bar) and going back to August of ’23, with this post, then reading though subsequent posts, one can say the ‘cancellation’ was fully expected.
That August ’23, post has the link to Prechter’s analysis; we’re in the largest asset bubble in at least 300 years (not advice, not a recommendation).
All of that brings us to chief cook and bottle washer, Nvidia.
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
We’ll cut straight to the chase (as of 11:35 a.m., EST).
A Fibonacci projection is overlaid starting from the all-time-high (1/7/25), to the recent lows (2/3/25), back up to test (2/18/25), then reversal, again.
Note how last Friday’s price action printed and closed near the 23.6, Fibonacci projection.
Positioning
Everyone has their own preference and style.
As stated in the ‘About‘ section, this site works to emulate behaviors of the three masters listed.
That, in addition to the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to have been mentored by the late David Weis, results in what’s available on this site.
With that said, positioning in the SOXX (the A.I. proxy) is short, via SOXS, as SOXS-25-08, initial entry link here (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: SOXS-25-08, stop to be moved to the day’s session low; currently 18.58 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.
If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).
The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).
Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).
Nvidia NVDA, Daily
Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.
Strategy, Tactics, Focus
As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).
With that said, everyone has their own style.
Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Is a long-term, downside reversal in this sector, about to bubble to the surface?
With yesterday’s update, it’s easy to get lost in the hourly and daily maneuvers; see a likely (short-term) potential, while it just distracts from the bigger picture.
That ‘big picture’, is below.
Once again, we have a (potential) repeating set-up: Wyckoff ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.
Biotech XBI, Weekly Close
With this week’s volatile action but lower overall close (from last week), the ‘up-thrust test may be complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
