Category Archives: DIA

Markets Blow-Up … A Review

October 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Bonds, CDNS, DIA, Dow 30, IBB, Natural Gas, SPBIO, TLT, UNG, WFC, Wyckoff, XBI

In The Aggregate

Whether or not we’re at the ‘anxiety’ point shown on the chart, is yet to be seen.

Markets are open this coming Monday, except for bonds, adding to the weekend angst.

Reviewing The (past) Week

Posts over last week, even the weeks before, showed from a Wyckoff perspective, something was about to happen.

Cadence Design … Reversal Ready, link here.

When The Bonds Spike, link here.

Wells Fargo Top … 86.66, link here.

Biotech (short) Set-Up, link here.

Top of The Dow, link here.

In retrospect and in aggregate, it’s now obvious something was amiss.

The ‘Art’ of Wyckoff

Wyckoff technique is more art than science, more intuitive than calculated, more ephemeral than certain.

We’ll get into what happens when logic overrides that art, in the next update; Nat-Gas UNG.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Top of The Dow

October 10, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, SLV, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 2 Comments

Where The Risk is Least

The ‘risk’ on a short position in the Dow (DIA), is yesterday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s very early in the pre-market (7:48 a.m., EST), DIA is trading slightly higher (at 464.34), but anything can happen between now and the open.

Massive Margin Call

The Trillion Dollar margin call has to come from somewhere; maybe yesterday’s action in the metals and miners is going to force everyone’s hand.

Silver spiked, outside-down, on heavy volume.

With that said, on to the chart.

Dow 30 DIA, Daily

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.

The chart also shows an apparent volume climax, a typical ‘last gasp’ market action.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Banking System’s ‘Old Maid’

October 1, 2025 By in Banking, Daniela Cambone, DIA, DIA-25-05, Ed Dowd, Financial Sector, KBE, KBE-25-01, Positions, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, XLF, XLF-25-07 2 Comments

Where Is It?

As Ed Dowd says in this interview (time stamp: 19:16), somebody in the banking system’s holding The Old Maid.

As the overall markets continue to form what looks to be a top, maybe ‘the’ top, a process of (trade) iteration is occurring.

The objective is to determine which sector is the most vulnerable.

Short positions in the Dow and the SOXX have both been stopped out (not advice, not a recommendation).

With implosion of Tricolor Auto and now First Brands, the market itself is telling us, look at financial sector(s).

With that said, short positions have been opened in XLF, and KRE; both of which so far, are holding below their early session highs (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Top & Test

September 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-15, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

The Big One?

If it really is the ‘big one’, we won’t know until it’s over.

What is known, the SOXX posted an all-time high yesterday.

Today, it posted a new daily low and then immediately began a retrace higher (to test).

That’s where we are now. The test has (so far) posted all the way up to a 61.8%, retrace.

Semiconductor SOXX, 30-minute

We’re in close on the action with the 30-minute chart.

Of course, while all this is going on, the major distraction (this time around) is the ‘shutdown‘.

Separately, the Dow (DIA) posted a new daily low. 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Dow Set-Up

September 29, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-05, Dow 30, Positions, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

While Everyone’s Focused on A.I.

Who looks at the Dow Industrials anymore?

Bueller? … Bueller? … Bueller?

We’ll be brief.

The Dow 30’s last peak, an all-time-high, was Fibonacci 5-Days ago, September 23rd.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

We’re at Day 5, as mentioned, also at a 68% retrace and currently trading lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Goldman, ‘Yes’ … Dow, ‘No’?

August 16, 2025 By in DIA, DIA-25-03, Dow 30, Goldman, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge

What Does The Market Say?

According to Goldman Sachs, link here, they’re calling for continued upside.

Anything can happen.

For those on this site, the focus is not on what anybody’s saying, but what’s the market actually doing?

We’ll use the Dow 30 proxy DIA, for this update.

Dow 30 ETF, DIA, Daily

Repeating pattern: Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

The Dow has been struggling each time it gets to this resistance area, since December of last year.

Friday was a gap-higher at the open, then retrace, closing below resistance (upper blue line).

From a risk on a short position, it’s clear. The stop would be last Friday’s high.

Currently short as DIA-25-03, with stop just above DIA 452.05 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 3, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, DIA-25-01, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Rebound, or Rout

Yesterday’s update, said that biotech XBI, finished the day in Wyckoff ‘spring’ position; to (possibly) move higher into the target zone.

Today, we have this analysis, link here that indicates a similar scenario for the overall markets.

It’s possible there will be some upside bias this week (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour into the session; the S&P is trading flat along with the Dow,

If last week’s downside was going to continue aggressively, a much lower start would be expected.

So far, that’s not happening.

Short The Dow

A trade not discussed, is the short in the Dow, DIA-25-01.

Depending on price action in the coming week, that short may be increased.

If so, it’ll be discussed at that time.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Wal-Mart … The Sleeper?

July 9, 2025 By in DIA, Dow 30, Nasdaq, Positions, QQQ, Up-Thrust, WMT, WMT-25-04 1 Comment

Follow, the Set-Up

Is it possible that Wal-Mart, one of the laggards of the market, for years if not decades, could all-of-a-sudden, become exciting?

Exciting that is, to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

As the tagline above says, ‘Follow, the Set-Up’.

Well, here it is.

Wal-Mart WMT, Daily Close

It’s important to note: Unlike the rest of the indices, the S&P, the Qs, the Dow, WMT, is well below its all-time highs.

Yesterday, was a potential trend break. Today, may be continuation, or test of that break.

Positioning

Short as trade WMT-25-04, with stop at yesterday’s high, WMT 99.17 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Assessing The (market) Damage

April 5, 2025 By in Car Questions Answered, CVNA, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, KMX, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, XOP 1 Comment

Sifting Through The Rubble

There are sure to be plenty of post-mortems over the weekend; usual suspects giving us their assessment on what’s already happened. 🙂

Sometimes the question, is not ‘what’s happened’, but ‘what has not happened’.

That’s where the opportunity may lie.

Market Implosion

Over the past week, there were wide price bars, with action unstable in all major indices (ETFs): DIA, IBB, IWM, IYM, IYR, QQQ, SOXX, SPBIO, SPY, XLF, and XOP.

However, what did not implode (completely), are the car dealerships; specifically, CarMax and Carvana.

For this update, we’ll look at CarMax.

CarMax, KMX, Weekly Close

On a close basis, KMX, has bounced off the lower wedge boundary and is near the resistance area (magenta line).

Price action could be positively biased in the coming week as a result of ‘tax refund’ car buying (not advice, not a recommendation)

According to ‘Car Questions Answered‘, it’s a yearly ‘thing’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279