Category Archives: Dr. Elder

Moderna … Options Strategy

February 19, 2023 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, MRNA, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Trend Contact … Then, Pivot Down

With a potential right-side trend (and channel) contact confirmed; shown below at – 86% annualized, odds are now favorable for a Put strategy.

In addition to the technical factors discussed, listed at the bottom of this post are no fewer than 22-links to the current fundamental state of biotech and their ‘handiwork’.

The weekly chart of MRNA, has a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and a test, confirmed by the downside pivot.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Notice the reversal action took place at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.

The two blue lines on the daily chart (below) are exactly parallel.

The grey lines are parallel to the blue lines and intended to show MRNA, exhibits a repeating (downtrend) pattern.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

The expanded version on the daily has support being penetrated (horizontal blue line) and then ‘spring’ action last Friday as a result.

Of course, it’s ‘what happens next’, that’s the question.

In a prefect scenario, price action would thrust lower for a day or several days and then come back up to test the underside of resistance.

Elder Option Strategy

This strategy is taken from Elder’s book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’, and seeks to use as short-dated options as possible.

Doing so, requires the discipline to wait sufficient amount of time for price action to get into position and for option time value to bleed-off.

Potential Upside

Since we’re already in spring position and price action moved off the lows on Friday, MRNA could continue the upside right back to, or past the downtrend line.

However, with massive (undeniable) fundamentals building buy the day, and MRNA being mentioned specifically in at least one link below, probabilities favor the downside.

Supporting Links For The Bearish Stance

Florida Surgeon General Warns Life-Threatening VAERS Reports Up 4,400 Percent Since COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout

US Says Government, Not Moderna, Should Face COVID-19 Vaccine Lawsuit

New Medical Codes For COVID Vaccination Status Raise Concerns Among Experts

Watch: Rand Paul Grills School Of Nursing Head On Student COVID Vaccine Mandate

US Navy Lifts COVID Vaccine Mandate For Sailor Deployment

Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths

NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects

WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report

Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy

Rand Paul Introduces Bill To Halt Funding For Hospitals Denying Care To The Unvaxxed

Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts

IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine

COVID Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing

Novavax To Sell US Government 1.5 Million More Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine

“World’s First” Unvaccinated Dating Service Launches In Hawaii

Living The Lie

‘COVID-Curing’ Sorrento Therapeutics Plunges After Filing For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

What Can We Learn From The Biggest Lies People Believed About COVID?

Censorship Operations: COVID, War, And More…

CDC Director Defends Mask Mandates After New Study Shows Masking Has Little Effect

Bivalent COVID Vaccines Perform Worse Against Variant Now Dominant In United States: Studies

COVID NEWS COMPILATION WITH NUMBER 33

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Options Trade … Intel (INTC)

February 18, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, Federal Reserve, INTC, SOXX 1 Comment

Looking For The Set-Up

Intel’s a dog … and has been for a very long time.

How do we know that? The price action itself, tells us.

Looking at the weekly chart of INTC, overlaid with the SOXX (thin black line), it’s clear, things literally went south for INTC, right around April, of 2021.

Intel reversed while the sector, the SOXX continued higher.

It’s what happened next, that’s important.

Intel INTC, With SOXX, Weekly

Note how the SOXX has rebounded since mid-October last year while Intel has remained flat.

Even with all the market manipulation to keep the major indices trending higher, having the public thinking ‘the consumer is strong’, INTC has languished.

This lack of upward price action in a rising market, indicates significant weakness.

Has Intel reached a bottom? This is the ‘dip’, isn’t it?

‘Go ahead, make my trade‘. 🙂

As always, anything can happen and INTC, could launch higher from here. However, it’s not likely.

It’s a juggernaut and at the moment, heading lower.

All of which brings us to the set-up: Options trade to the short side.

Intel INTC, Daily

For a viable Put trade, at least two criteria need to be met (with downtrend already established) and those are: Option time bleed, and what’s called ‘price instability’ or a ‘test’.

The daily close of INTC, shows a prior set-up (‘Test’) and now, at the far right of the chart, forecasted action.

A possible time for the ‘test’ if it occurs would be this coming Wednesday as that makes it ‘Day 13’ from the high on February 3rd.

That day would also coincide with the Fed minutes being released at 2:00 p.m., EST.

Note: When Fibonacci time counts are involved, it was determined years ago (by my firm), when the U.S. market is closed for a holiday and the rest of the world markets are open, it can (and sometimes does) count as a Fibonacci trading day.

Therefore, with world markets open this Monday, and the U.S. closed, it may still count as a Fibonacci trading day.

That in turn, could make this Tuesday ‘Day 13’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Newmont, Approaching “Free-Fall”

February 15, 2023 By in Dr. Elder, NEM

Ratcheting Its Way Down

Newmont (NEM) price action’s working its way lower to a ‘free-fall’ area; shown below.

Depending on behavior if or when it gets to this area, there could be an acceptable set-up to execute an ‘Elder-type’ Put option (not advice, not a recommendation).

That Put strategy has already been discussed but for those who may be new, it’s basically a short-expiration, out-of-the-money Put for maximum (potential) gain.

A completely counter-intuitive approach to the standard method of long-dated entries, then ‘wait’ while the value burns down to nothing.

Newmont Mining NEM, Daily

The compressed chart has the big picture; Newmont’s all-time highs were reversed on April 18th, 2022.

It’s currently in the process of finding its long-term bottom which is possibly far away from current levels.

The next chart gets close in on the potential set-up.

If price action follows its current down-trend, NEM may reach the potential free-fall area late next week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

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Chevron’s Short Status & Forecast

January 31, 2023 By in CVX, Dr. Elder, Oil & Gas

Options Trade Update

The Put entry on Chevron CVX, was admittedly, late to the party.

From a trading and strategy perspective, when CVX, announced its ‘buy-back‘ program, that was the appropriate time to go short (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that in mind, the Put option detailed in the above link was closed towards the end of yesterday’s session.

Chevron could still collapse from here and that may ultimately be the outcome.

However, before that happens, as shown below, the more probable event is to come back up for a test of underside resistance.

Chevron CVX, 4-Hour

Note how thrust energy (blue arrow) to the downside is dissipating.

The chart below shows a potential outcome, if (and it’s a big if) CVX, is still in a significant reversal.

Examples presented on this site are just that: Examples

They show one “old-timer’s” perspective on the market and current events.

The examples can be used (or not) to aid in understanding market behavior or to show a different perspective on how to approach the current environment.

To paraphrase Dr. Alexander Elder:

‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … and even more ways to lose it’.

It’s about 20-minutes before the open. Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Chevron Crack-Up

January 27, 2023 By in CVX, Dr. Elder, Oil & Gas 1 Comment

A Long Way Down

The breakdown in Chevron (CVX) could spell real trouble.

The Oil & Gas Sector has already been covered extensively over the entire month of January.

Prior posts are here, here, here, here, here and here.

Some of the analysis was negated by subsequent price action and some of it not. This is the way of the markets.

However, the main theme was, this sector’s at an extreme, at risk for a major, swift and sustained downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

Additional data that indicated extremes, including the Chevron (CVX) buy-back are below:

WTI ‘Cushing‘ Build Report

Investors ‘surge‘ back into oil.

Events like this, tend to indicate the end of a move.

Then today, Chevron (CVX) cracks.

In keeping with Elder’s method of trading options, as was done with the Delta Airlines (DAL) trade, the chart is documented below.

Note: The Delta Put expired with no revenue on the trade. This is how the method is implemented. Many small losses that are peppered by a significant gain (not advice, not a recommendation).

Chevron CVX, Daily

Over the next week, CVX could get ahold if itself and stabilize … or it could completely fall apart (not advice, not a recommendation).

We can already see, it appears to have posted a double top with a swift reversal.

Probabilities favor the downside.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta Airlines … The Short Set-Up

January 14, 2023 By in Airlines, DAL, Dr. Elder, Positions, S&P 100, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Hanging In ‘Mid-Air’

It’s a good thing we’re not listening to the financial press as the market’s ‘Call The Fed’s Bluff’; we would’ve missed the set-up.

Let’s bookmark this post (like the last one), come back in July or so, and see how the poker-hand with The Fed played out.

Three guesses on who’s going to win and the first two, don’t count. 🙂

With Delta, it’s not the Fed they have to worry about. A series of events were set in motion (i.e., pilot ‘shortage’) that may not get fixed for years to come.

Ditto, for the other airlines.

Moving on, let’s take a look at what the price action of Delta (DAL), is telling us.

For brevity, we’ll go straight to a marked-up (and time compressed) weekly chart of DAL.

Delta Airlines DAL, Weekly

DAL spent nearly a year building a ‘terminating wedge’ before breaking down during February of 2020.

Hmmm, February of 2020, what was happening back then?

That breakdown, coupled with the terminating wedge, and it’s almost as if someone knew something; time enough to position massively short or buy put options.

Subsequent retrace off the 2020 lows, were at lower and lower Fibonacci levels … with the current retrace at 50%.

The Options Trade

Dr. Alexander Elder describes (Come Into My Trading Room) one way to trade options that few attempt.

That is, instead of buying long dated options and then waiting for the slow burn down of capital, the lesser-known method is exactly the opposite.

In his book, he describes buying short-dated OEX (S&P 100) Put options for 3/8ths … back in the day when the market traded in fractions.

Two days later, he sells the options for 17, a 4,433% gain.

Taking that method and applying it to the daily chart, we have the following.

Delta Airlines DAL, Daily

On Friday, there was a huge gap-lower, open.

Price action spent the rest of the session attempting to close the gap. Volume increased substantially from Thursday’s session (up +46%)

Yet, price action was not even able to touch the lows of that session; Friday’s high of 38.29, vs. Thursday’s low of 38.32.

It’s a nuance that may have meaning or not.

The Short Trade

As shown on the chart, a position was opened with a Put; strike at 35, and priced (at entry) at 0.09 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Following Elder’s method, the price and short expiration, says there’s no hope for this trade.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Bulls … Go Berserk … Again

January 8, 2023 By in Currencies, Dr. Elder, GLD, Gold & Silver, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, USO, Wyckoff, XOP, ZeroHedge

Testing The Trend

Since the lows last November, to the close this past Friday, gold (GLD) has moved higher by a decent but modest 15.4%.

Naturally, the opportunists are out telling us ‘We’ve been warned’, ‘this is it’, ‘it’s going to the moon’ … yet again.

With that backdrop, we’re going to look at the precious metals facts, not the hype.

‘Precious metals’ because there are only four that have ‘currency code’ classifications, i.e., are classified as an asset with ‘currency like’ monetary characteristics.

Currency Codes

Gold, Currency Code: XAU

Silver, Currency Code: XAG

Palladium, Currency Code: XPD

Platinum, Currency Code: XPT

The Market Itself

Way back over a century ago, Wyckoff discovered the key to understanding the next likely move of the markets was the study the market itself (not fundamentals).

Wyckoff essentially ‘locked himself in a room with just a stock ticker and phone line’.

Months later, when he emerged, ‘Studies in Tape Reading‘ was the result.

We’re going to use his insight from that text.

That is, what’s the market’s saying about itself? What’s the next likely direction?

Off The Highs

For some of the precious metals, they’re off their highs by a significant amount (percentages approximated).

Gold (GLD): Down -11%, from highs

Silver (SLV): Down -55%, from 2011, highs

Palladium (PAH23): Down -47%, from highs

Platinum (PLJ23): Down -53%, from highs

All of the precious metals are down nearly 50% or more, except gold.

In the case of Platinum, it’s near 1980s levels!

So, where’s the inflation?

Oh wait, here it is … one more time.

That’s not saying ‘money printing’ has no effect. There are a lot of moving parts. Intentional destruction of the food supply is just one of those parts.

Old School Analysis

Hypothetically, if you dropped an ‘old-timer’ into the markets at this juncture (without him knowing the ‘hype’), and showed him all four charts of gold, silver, palladium, platinum, and asked ‘what’s happening?’

What’s his response?

After a brief look at the charts, he would likely say:

‘Gold’s move higher is not being confirmed by the other precious metals’.

Note that all four metals peaked together during the inflation spike of 1980.

Ergo: At this juncture, something’s wrong.

Either the other metals are going to ‘catch up’ to meet gold or gold is going to come down to meet the others.

That is of course, unless this time is different … somehow.

With that, we’ll look at the chart of gold to see what it’s saying about itself.

Gold GLD, Weekly

We’re starting with the unmarked chart.

Note: Elder’s Force Index scale is expanded to show the nuances of GLD, price action.

Next, we see we’re at a test of the trendline in place for 16-months before the downside breakout of July, last year.

Moving in closer, we have a wedge formation prior to the up-move last week.

Is this a breakout to the upside or a throw-over?

At this point, it’s unknown.

We can see that Force Index is below where price action entered the wedge during the week of November 11th.

Less force up into resistance (trendline), paints a slightly more bearish than bullish picture.

The ‘Why’ Comes Out

As if on cue and in classic Wyckoff style, we have a ‘why‘ for the move off the lows of last November.

Classic Wyckoff, because he said the ‘why’ of a move comes out after the fact.

There you have it; China buying gold last November and December.

During this move from the recent lows, it was certainly a trading opportunity for the bulls … but from a strategic standpoint, what happens next?

The Non-Confirmation

Non-confirmations can last a long time.

For example, the Oil & Gas sector XOP, declined for eight months, from April 2019 to January 2020, before the price of oil (USO) finally broke lower.

With the ZeroHedge article just released a few hours ago, we can expect at least a blip higher at the next GLD, open.

After that, we’ll see.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Set-Up & Strategy

December 11, 2022 By in Dr. Elder, Flash Crash 2010, Food Supply, GLD, Oil, Russia, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Testing Underside Resistance

There’s no shortage of bullish prognostications for gold.

Said many times, as soon as there’s a blip higher, it’s near lunacy.

One of the latest installments is linked here and go figure … it’s the Russians, again!

Let’s get real.

Remember, the last time it was the Russians and the time before that?

From the date of the second link above in April, this year, gold (GLD) is down about -8.5%.

Not exactly a crash but definitely not a ‘paradigm shift the world has yet to fully process’.

Just from a contrary standpoint, if ‘everybody’s doing it’, there must be something else going on.

Let’s take a look at the actual facts, the price action, and see what it’s telling us.

Gold (GLD), Quarterly

Looking at the big picture first; the quarterly chart.

Elder’s Force Index (shown in the middle section) has been expanded to detail the thrust energy behind the move(s).

It’s important to note, for at least the past 10-Quarters, two and a half years, the upward thrusts have been successively declining in energy.

That decline is highlighted below.

Next, we’ll drill down to the monthly chart.

It shows GLD, trended (slightly) higher for at least sixteen-months, before breaking down.

GLD, Monthly

Now, as the right-most magenta arrow shows, we’re at the test of underside resistance.

Tests may pass or fail; obviously, what happens next is important.

Also note, as with the quarterly, upward Force Index on the monthly, is declining.

We’ll take it one step further and go the weekly … it too, has declining and also diverging upward thrust.

GLD, Weekly

Ok, you talked me into it. 🙂

Let’s go to the daily and see the same thing.

GLD, Daily

Does all this mean gold will immediately go lower at the next open?

The short answer … it’s not known. However, from a probability standpoint, lower is more likely than higher.

No ‘Capitulation’

There’s nothing to indicate downside capitulation.

Nothing like the ‘changing of hands’ that took place this past March 8th, here and here.

It appears we’re still in the initial stages of a long-term downside reversal.

Downside? … How’s downside, even possible?

‘What kind of idiot comes up with that type of analysis?’

Moving Parts, A-Plenty

Every day, we see things going on in the background that could not be known or fathomed; like missing $80 Trillion?

All it takes, is for some kind of sovereign debt or derivatives blow-up, requiring that country to sell its assets like gold, silver, oil, grains and so on.

A huge dump on the gold market, would of course trigger stops and that in itself, could result in a contagion of selling.

If or when it happens, the downside might be temporary like the Flash Crash of 2010, or oil going negative, or it could be longer.

The ‘powers’ don’t seem to be too concerned with precious metals demand, prices, and low stock of physical at the commodities exchange(s).

It’s as if they know, it will work itself out.

They’re on to something else more basic. Something ‘crude but effective‘ like destruction of the food supply.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

October 15, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Gwen Olsen, LABD, LABD-22-08, Livermore, Positions, SPBIO, The Epoch Times, The Speck, Usual Suspects, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Special Biotech Edition

Bogart

An immense flood of data; research reports, lawsuits, expose articles and anecdotal evidence; every day, multiple times a day, something new.

Has the biotech technical (finally) lined up with the fundamental?

Those fundamentals are farther down but first, we’ll discuss the technical.

As a reminder, sometimes charts are inverted during analysis. This ‘trick’ was discovered years ago and is based on techniques used by Dr. Alexander Elder.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly Close (Inverted)

We’ve taken the weekly closing chart of SPBIO ($SPSIBI, on StockCharts) and inverted it to mimic the action of inverse fund LABD.

The index has no volume; so LABD is used instead.

The magenta arrow shows the pivot point for the index, corresponds will all-time record volume on leveraged inverse LABD.

Next, we’ll get closer-in and look at the ‘pivot’ on the hourly chart (inverted).

SPBIO, Hourly (Inverted).

The magenta arrows show successive positions (Livermore ‘probes’) entered (via LABD) before the main entry @ LABD 22.99, which was 90% of position size up to that point.

The next day (Friday) had a gap-lower open that was quickly reversed. Position size was increased by another 5%, at LABD 22.29 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Effective position equates to LABD 23.17

Price action pulled away steadily from the early morning levels, suggesting a sustainable reversal.

The Fundamentals

Some of this stuff, you just can’t make up.

Listed in somewhat chronological order, here they are (not an exhaustive list).

No. 1

Pfizer hires 600 to help document adverse events. Wasn’t it supposed to be ‘safe and effective’?

No. 2

Pilot Shortage

Fired/quit because they refuse to get ‘protection’.

A possible corollary to what’s happened, via injection, we have this.

No. 3

Pfizer, nobody wants their product … after the rollout.

No. 4

Who could it be?

Previously unknown (or rare) problems and illness now starting to accelerate.

No. 5

We’re here to help.

No. 6

You mean, it was all a lie?

No. 7

The real reason for getting ‘tested’?

No. 8

What did the media know and when did they know it?

No. 9

It’s still a ‘suggestion‘ but the payouts to family members are real.

No. 10

It’s over … and then it’s not.

No. 11

We’ll keep it quiet, so no feelings get hurt.

No. 12

How bad is your batch? Let’s see.

No. 13

You mean, it was never tested? I’m shocked.

No. 14

After all that, maybe we can give it another shot.

No. 15

A potential infinite number of complications … nothing to see here.

No. 16

Getting away with it? Not so fast.

No. 17

Just had a heart attack? We can help.

No. 18

Limited Hangout? You decide.

No. 19

Lastly, this is what it’s really all about.

Recorded years ago. Did her ‘prophecy’ come true?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Eyes On China … FXI

July 6, 2022 By in China, David Weis, Dr. Elder, FXI, SRS, SRS-22-01, Wyckoff, YANG, YANG-22-02 1 Comment

Textbook (YANG) FXI, Short Entry

If the trade’s falling apart, get out.

That’s the admonition from Dr. Alexander Elder in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room‘.

And so it was. Short position in real estate, closed out.

Even with all the analysis, real estate (IYR) has pushed higher. The short position via SRS (SRS-22-01) was exited just below the stop @ SRS 16.33.

Exiting a trade, frees the mind to look elsewhere for opportunity.

Typically, one would have to wait days or even a week or so for something else to be available.

However, despite appearances, the market is moving very fast at this juncture.

Looking around in those markets, we have a textbook entry signal (to go short) the FXI (not advice, not a recommendation).

David Weis & The Video

Many times, on this site (actually, for years), the Weis video has been recommended.

Next to Wyckoff’s treatise from 1910, Studies In Tape Reading, that video is probably the most important one could ever watch concerning the markets.

In it, he describes a ‘trick’ as he calls it, to get aboard a market that’s already underway. At the time, his discussion was using DE (if memory serves), as the trading vehicle.

That ‘trick’ is highlighted below on FXI

China Index FXI, Daily

This is how the chart looks early in today’s session.

Next, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic what’s seen on leveraged inverse fund YANG.

And now, the signal zoomed-in

The above price action is nearly exactly as presented in the Weis video; even though it was recorded fifteen-years ago.

The above signal is not a guarantee.

It is, however, a high probability low risk set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

The entry signal was triggered at approximately YANG 11.75, with a stop at YANG 11.02, for a ‘risk’ of 0.73/share (not advice, not a recommendation).

Summary

As this post is being created, YANG is retracing and is currently trading near 11.67, narrowing the distance from any potential entry to the stop.

On a very long term (Monthly) basis, there are interesting things happening in FXI. We’ll be covering that soon in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Active: YANG (YANG-22-02), entry @ 11.83, with stop @ 11.30