After The Close
No New Weekly High
GDX price action pushed through the 3-day highs shown in the last update. Even so, on a weekly basis, price action was unable to make a new high.
We see on the chart, a breakdown through support and this week’s test.
After today’s Fed speech, we’ll see if this is all there is for the upside on gold and the miners.
Recall, from a recent J. Bravo update, there aren’t any bears left.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
Before The Open
Looking At The 3-Day GDX, Chart
As Dr. Elder once said (paraphrasing): ‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … even more ways to lose it.’
The time required to master the basics like support, resistance, accumulation, distribution is up to the individual.
After that however, the experimentation starts: Fibonacci retrace, time sequences, technical forces, multiple time frames and on.
Experimenting with the chart of Senior Gold Miners GDX, shows at this time, a 3-Day chart reveals nuances not seen (so easily) in the daily or weekly.
We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the GDX inverse fund DUST (without the tracking errors) as shown below:
Then comes the mark-up:
All of a sudden, it becomes clear. Inverted GDX has been in a series of springs (up-thrust, non-inverted) and is now pivoting to the upside. That pivot is shown with the green arrows.
Each 3-Day period having a higher low than before.
As detailed in this prior update, GDX is potentially on the verge of ‘free fall’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Pre-market trading has GDX, lower with DUST higher.
Stay Tuned
Before The Open
‘Dollar Destruction’ To Be Postponed
Hyper-Inflation Not In The Charts
Who looks at the actual chart anyway … so old-school.
However, what that school is telling us, the dollar’s built a solid base for a sustained rally.
Then we have this: Uneducated Economist gives us links in his report on why dollar demand could increase substantially.
If dollars are going up, gold is going down.
At this juncture, there’s still an inverse correlation.
Position Update:
On a separate but related note, the FDA announcement from yesterday was not taken into account with the biotech plan. An error if you will.
The level of malfeasance as detailed in this link was not thought to be possible.
The Project Stimulus account exited the short biotech trade with a small gain as shown below.
More analysis to come on a potential long-term biotech reversal set-up not unlike the dollar.
For now, we’re out.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
What A ‘Surprise’, If GDX Breaks Down Into A Collapse
Gold and the dollar are still inversely correlated.
The dollar developed a bullish set-up starting around May, of this year.
Since that time, its been in rally.
The last update on the dollar was this one, August 4th. Indeed, the dollar has continued its move higher.
Since we have negative correlation, gold and the miners have moved lower.
Each sector is now at a critical juncture:
A resistance area in the case of UUP and support (blue line) in the case of GDX.
The market has alternated (weekly GDX, above) from choppy overlapping moves, to smooth downward thrusts.
If GDX breaks substantially lower, get ready for cries of ‘manipulation’ and ‘it’s all rigged’.
Possibly more important, such a downdraft may cause an instant change in market sentiment; from ‘risk on’, to ‘risk off’.
In that case, a market’s that’s well positioned to head decisively lower, the fastest, is biotech, SPBIO.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
10:47 a.m., EST
GDX In Trading Channel
Follow On To ‘Up-Thrust’ Analysis
First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.
The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.
That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.
GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.
The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:
And the result …
Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.
The magenta arrows show channel contact points:
Summary:
Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.
Something else is going on.
As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.
With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.
With gold, it may be something else.
As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.
For example, some parts of Australia are completely immobile.
If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?
This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.
Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.
Anecdote:
From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.
The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.
Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.
He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.
He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.
Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.
It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.
As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.
They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).
However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
10:23 a.m., EST
Livermore:
‘Surprises are in the direction of trend’
The following quote is from this past Saturday’s update:
“It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:”
Then, we can also add this quote from the GDX Short Sell, Set-Up:
“This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.”
A firm foundation has already been laid; a bearish case for gold (the miners and silver) that includes the inverse correlation of a bullish dollar.
Both moves are currently underway.
Steven Van Metre, followed-on; highlighting the bearish gold set-up in his ‘Sunday Night Charts‘ update.
As is typical, there’s a small cadre that can see what’s happening. They are somehow able to ignore the constant media hype; positioning accordingly.
The original weekly chart of GLD below, is followed by today’s update:
Updated chart:
Typical market behavior is to break through the trend (for however long) and then come back for an underside test.
It seems that anything related to the gold (silver) markets is an overcrowded trade. There are too many rabid bullish fanatics.
We’ll stand on the sidelines for this one (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
Updated, 12/18/21, with notes in blue text.
Jerimiah Babe:
‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’
Well, that’s close.
Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.
‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.
It’s a two-step process:
Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.
It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).
It laid the groundwork for the Federal Reserve act of 1913.
Operating in parallel, we have the following:
Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.
Construction begins: March 1909.
Sea trials: Early April, 1912
Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.
April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.
Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.
What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.
The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.
That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.
So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.
Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:
2019: ‘The Speck’
1918: ‘Espana’ Flu
1817: ‘Cholera’
1718: ‘Plague’
How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:
The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).
If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.
Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.
The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.
No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.
Correct but not the way the media plays it.
They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.
Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.
In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.
Take Action:
This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.
Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:
Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).
The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.
He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.
He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.
Is it a hassle: Yes.
Is it messy: Yes.
Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes
Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.
Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.
The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.
He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.
We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.
Here is, all grown up and strutting his stuff
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
11:50 a.m., EST
Gold miners back at it … about to ‘Up-Thrust’
The daily GDX chart is almost self-explanatory.
Price action spent about seven days in spring position before finally getting up enough energy to launch. The past two trading days have been essentially straight up.
Straight up that is, into known resistance.
This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.
The (market) truth is and has been for a long time, gold and the miners are not yet confirming hyperinflation.
Buying gold/silver, gets more ‘clicks’ than buying food and showing everyone your freeze-dried plastic packs.
Since you have chosen to monitor this site, you have also made a choice to access information that’s not comfortable; information that may challenge (or even change) already held beliefs on how it’s all supposed to go down.
Case in point: With each passing day, it becomes more clear that food (Genesis 41) and the ability to create it, will come first as one storehouse of wealth.
Gold and silver will come … but only after nearly everyone has had it stripped from them (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, GDX, is pushing through the resistance level shown in the chart.
How it behaves if/when it contacts the 38% level, will let us know if a downside reversal (up-thrust) is in the works.
Stay Tuned
Charts by StockCharts
Buffett’s not on the list
After thirty-four years of researching the markets, focus has narrowed to three masters from the early 1900s; providing a solid framework for addressing the markets of today.
More detail on these masters can be found at this link.
Summarizing their knowledge as follows:
Strategy, Tactics, & Focus
This update demonstrates how those tenets are being implemented.
Strategy:
In Livermore’s fictional autobiography (Reminiscences), he muddled around for years before identifying his niche.
That is:
‘What’s going to (or what’s likely to) happen in a big way.’
That insight has been used to identify the biotech sector as ripe for complete (and well deserved) implosion; more so than any other sector in the market.
For many months, the case continues to build for collapse.
Here’s just one more brick in the wall; providing even more support for implosion.
Tactics:
Wyckoff committed his entire professional life to decoding the market and its moves.
He is (as far as available data shows) the father of technical analysis.
Terms like ‘support’, ‘resistance’, ‘accumulation’, ‘distribution’, did not exist before is treatise, “Studies In Tape Reading”, published in 1910.
His bottom line:
Price is moved by a force of its own; having nothing to do (in a causal way) with fundamentals:
‘What is the market saying about itself.’
The biotech sector SPBIO, is tag-teaming with gold miners GDX (and GDXJ), for downside leadership.
SPBIO finished the week down -27.5%, from its February 9th (2021) high; running a close second to GDX, which finished the week down – 27.6%, from its August 5th (2020) high.
From a speed-of-decline standpoint, biotech’s in the lead.
Focus:
Loeb’s brutal admonition was: ‘The naïve, lazy, mediocre, ignorant and the incompetent “diversify”.
His follow-on corollary was: ‘Real market opportunities are few. If one is discovered, it must be used to its maximum extent.’
Loeb’s assessment of those in the market, is not much different from Wyckoff’s:
“The average man never makes a success of Tape Reading.
Right you are! The average man seldom makes a success of anything.” (emphasis is Wyckoff’s).
From the above list, ignorance can be fixed through determination, study, tenacity and the never-ending search for (market) truth.
The others, not so much.
Using Loeb’s tenet, that is, ‘focus’, we’ve taken it and have gone short and continue to go short (not advice, not a recommendation), the biotech sector via LABD.
Summary:
There’s no guarantee the short trade will work out; yielding a significant gain.
Any number of things can happen:
Internet outage, power outage, terrorist attack, supply chain and transportation shut-downs … literally, anything.
However, being short (from a personal standpoint) is better than wringing one’s hands, cowering in fear, looking to the (bought and paid for) financial media to provide direction on what to do in this unstable environment.
Epilogue:
By using the life’s work of Livermore, Wyckoff & Loeb, its been determined, being short biotech (and possibly the mining sector) is the appropriate market stance.
With the caveat that even now, one might need to exit the trade; it still appears at this juncture, the on-going short (not advice, not a recommendation) is the most focused profit opportunity given the current environment.
Stay Tuned
11:39 a.m., EST
Biotech SPBIO, Down Over 21%
Miners GDX, Down Over 25%
As of about 10:50 a.m., EST, this is where we are from a sector standpoint.
The major indices are masking the potential the next leg down, has already started.
Yesterday’s update posted the link for ‘Holiday Turns’.
It’s a list of empirical observation that market tops (reversals) tend to occur during holiday weeks.
The weekly chart of biotech SPBIO (which has been inverted), shows a Fibonacci 21-weeks, from the all time high (low on the chart) to this week’s pivot:
Not only is SPBIO adhering to Fibonacci time prints on the weekly, it’s doing it on the daily as well.
It was a Fibonacci 34 days to complete the 38%, retrace.
It was a Fibonacci 5 days to complete the most recent reversal and test; culminating early this session.
As stated many times, the bottom may fall out of biotech.
Someone or something in the criminal cabal is going to let loose; fully exposing the real intent of the entire operation.
Recall Prechter’s admonition; ‘price leads the news’
If SPBIO reverses at week 21, with a decisive move lower, it may not be long before news precipitates out into the mainstream.
We’re now two-hours into the trading day.
It’s typical for SPBIO, to begin its erosion (discussed here). Let’s see if it can retrace the sharp down move from the early session.
Stay Tuned
The Danger Point® 