Following the corporate media (always a mistake) and YouTuber’s alike (sometimes a mistake), only to find out it’s all been a lie.
Gold (GLD), looks like it’s solidifying its breakaway gap (chart below) and simultaneously confirming a potential trading channel.
In what may be related news, ZeroHedge reports some of the internet is down … again.
Note the websites having problems involve food, payroll services and of course, entertainment.
Separately, the dollar (UUP) just made a new weekly high as its rally continues. In Steven Van Metre’s Sunday Night update (time stamp: 18:01), if the dollar breaks higher above UUP 26 or 27, then “… all the wheels come off ….”
Which brings us to the gold market.
Gold (GLD), Weekly Chart
The chart reviews the recent up-thrust (reversal) that was accompanied by hysterical … bordering on unhinged insane press coverage of an imminent break higher.
Obviously, that didn’t happen.
Zoom version
In addition to the reversal and breakaway gap, there could be a trading channel as well.
That’s a good thing for the bears as it gives a more clear exit area … negation (or break) of that channel (not advice, not a recommendation).
Zoom version
Of course, anything can happen. The Fed announcement is about two hours away.
However, it looks like gold and miners alike, are not waiting around … potentially beginning their decline in earnest.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Today’s trip to the office supply store, had those employees and some customers alike, still putting toilet paper on their face in an attempt to ward off goblins … unseen.
Looking closely, today’s bar pulled away from the right-side trend-line just a bit.
Next, the same chart but on a 4-Hour time-frame
Note how a new (increased angle) trendline can be drawn.
The next chart zooms-in
There have been four, four-hour hits on the new more aggressive downtrend line.
That new line (thus far) is declining at about -94%, on an annualized basis.
Summary
If this is a more aggressive pivot lower, it’s very early in the trend. The next session can easily negate the trend or just as easily, provide confirmation.
Maintaining short via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Even after gold and the miners have reversed lower, the press still implores gold to head higher.
Like something out of Moby Dick … even after Ahab is dead, he still beckons.
The above link gives us another report on ‘inflation expectations’ at a new record high.
Near the bottom, the text says that survey respondents expect ‘gold to continue acceleration higher’.
The problem: Gold’s not accelerating and currently, is not going anywhere.
The statement (or belief) is completely false.
Senior Miners, GDX
The short positioning continues (not advice, not a recommendation)
The daily chart of GDX, shows price action hugging the right-side trend-line. Each tap and reversal provides more data on potential direction lower.
With the understanding an exit could be required at any moment, the hits on the right side are being used to increase short positioning (not advice, not a recommendation).
The zoom chart above, shows every short entry, except one, at a lower price (higher for DUST).
Summary:
Today’s ‘expectations’ report was released at 11:12, a.m.
If the day’s narrow-range bar is the best the gold miners can do with such high ‘inflation’, there must be something else more powerful at work (to the downside).
Maintaining short until the market itself says to get out (not advice, not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Steven Van Metre, in his Sunday Night Charts (time stamp 12:20), shows the precarious situation of GDX.
There’re about 90-minutes left to go in this session.
It looks like GDX is/has tested underside resistance and down-trend simultaneously. For GDX to break higher, it would have to get through that resistance.
As always, anything can happen but we need to remind ourselves, the gold bulls are already trapped … having bought at the mid-November breakout.
If still holding, they’re now deep in the red.
Under such conditions, each down move serves to set the (bear) hook even more.
If we use this just released article from ZeroHedge, we’re nowhere near any kind of capitulation and upside reversal.
Senior Miners, GDX
The un-marked daily chart
And now …
With zoom
We’re at a confluence of resistance; the downtrend and the underside of price action.
Let’s keep in mind, the overall markets (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) are still oscillating around their all-time highs. Volatility has increased as the trend appears to be changing.
Gold and the miners are nowhere near all-time highs.
A century ago, Wyckoff showed how to spot markets that would decline the fastest and farthest under bear market conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).
It’s not the high-flyer we’re looking for … no, it’s the laggard.
That’s the one to pick.
It’s already weak and once the buoyancy of the general market evaporates, the bottom may fall out.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That is, unless the current patterns in price action change.
From a professional trader’s standpoint, one has to be on-watch for two things:
First:
Be mentally flexible enough to recognize the trade is falling apart and then exit.
Second:
As Prechter put it years ago, be mentally prepared to accept the huge gain.
At this juncture, what is the chart of GDX, telling us?
Senior Miners (GDX), Daily
The un-marked chart.
Marking-up with Fibonacci time sequence.
Adding-in some trend lines.
Zoom out to show the big picture.
Summary:
From low-close, to high-close, the counter trend move took a Fibonacci 34-days.
In the process, it appears that price action is now moving within a trading channel.
In addition, the counter-trend print high on 11/16/21, was close to a 38%, retrace level (not shown) of the entire move from the peak on 8/5/20, to the 9/29/21 low.
Positioning
The last update detailed how a short position was opened in the miners (not advice, not a recommendation).
At this juncture, price action continues to indicate lower prices ahead.
The short is being maintained.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
To date, there’ve been 232 transactions in the firm’s main trading account.
Each one has its own story.
The big one for now, is shorting the gold miners GDX, via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).
We’re going to pull out the ‘card catalog’ on that one and take a brief look.
As a reminder, this post identified the breakout target for gold (GLD), months before it actually happened.
Also, in a prior post, it was discovered the miners had 3:1 downside response to recent down moves in gold.
Therefore, at this point in time, using leveraged inverse fund DUST, at -2X, the miners, gives an estimated, 6:1, market exposure.
Short entries were opened (shown below) once the gold market and miners broke to the upside.
Hysteria First
Those who’ve been here a while, already know part of the short set-up, was the necessary hysteria needed to get nearly everyone on the wrong (bullish) side.
Senior Miners, GDX
Just for reference, the daily chart of GDX, is below.
I suppose it must have been from behind enemy lines, with one of the gold updates warning us about archrival, Russia.
As we can see from the price collapse, the Russians must have found our gold bulls. 🙂
Meanwhile, Back At DUST
The daily chart of leveraged inverse DUST, shows trade entry locations to date (not advice, not a recommendation).
The hourly chart below, gives a closer look.
The next chart is a zoom-in of the entries.
Positioning in this market for now, is essentially complete.
At this point, it’s time to monitor and track for any potential trend reversal or trendline break.
Early Or Late
Years ago, sometime around late 2007, or early 2008, Robert Prechter Jr., said concerning his trades, he tends to be a little bit early.
That implicitly means he might suffer through adverse action including loss-exit, if action goes counter enough.
There’s no perfect entry. Early or late, take your pick.
Fixing Entry Errors
As can be seen on the hourly chart, every trade entry was on a red (declining price) bar.
The risk is, price action will just keep on going red.
The benefit is a big one; I’m not chasing the market.
If I’m chasing, it means I’m not on my game or I never had a game or worse, a coward that can’t pull the trigger on a trade without more ‘confirmation’.
David Weis covers in his video, how to properly get aboard a market that’s already underway.
After the initial entries, DUST banged around the bottom (GDX at the top) for eight trading days.
In retrospect and looking at the chart, the adverse action was not much lower but it did not feel like it at the time.
Because of the months of planning, there was an inference the size of this reversal would be significant.
So far, it is.
In the process of reversing, price action itself has fixed trade entries made a little too early.
Summary
Future updates will show potential trend and/or channel action as well as Fibonacci time correlation.
At this point, the DUST trade is well underway.
A reasonable stop area would be in the vicinity of DUST 19.37 (not advice not a recommendation).
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You have to wonder; will this nonsense be the excuse for a market collapse?
Looks like the gold miners (GDX) are not waiting around to find out.
Yesterday’s ‘gut-check’ counter trend move, was summed up with the following quote:
“Such a move, is typically what happens just before a market gets underway in earnest.”
Today, the Senior Miners, GDX, reversed and closed down a solid, – 3.05%.
However, the main topic for the day is the dollar and specifically, the UUP tacking fund.
We’re just a few days shy, where a year ago, this site identified the dollar was in position (potential does not equal guarantee) for a sustained upside reversal.
Dollar, UUP
The weekly chart of UUP shows where we are.
The magenta line is resistance and the blue line is support.
The next chart highlights the current action.
If the rally is to continue and if this market action was happening at some other (non-Omicron) time, you’d expect an amount of sideways oscillation before more upside; maybe several weeks or so.
It could happen that way … or, behind Door No. 2, we might have some kind of ‘event’ launching the dollar over the resistance area.
Farther down on the list, is downside reversal.
However, at this point, gold (GLD) and the miners, are saying it’s the lower probability choice.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For now, we’ll discuss only the technical aspects.
We’ll leave the rest of the truth for mainstream news.
Discussed previously, the sector (SPBIO) was left with our assessment that it may reverse higher into a retrace; combined with an up-thrust/reversal.
That was then.
Biotech, SPBIO, Now:
Daily un-marked chart of SPBIO:
Below, a marked-up chart showing penetration and move off support (Spring Condition).
Included, is the 38% retrace level … location for potential test and reversal:
As with the on-going reversal in gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, we’ll have to see how this plays out.
Unfortunately, as we head into what used to be the regular flu season, those who received ‘protection’, are going to find out they’re not protected at all.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The latest update from Steven Van Metre, has comments from the Fed that seem like they’re from another world, another time.
Evidently, the economy’s so strong … so good, that we might taper more aggressively and then … raise rates.
At this point, ‘what difference does it make?’
They’ve probably already cashed-out (like last time) and now stand on the sidelines.
Meanwhile back at the proletariat, we’re deciphering the market’s next moves … Fed press releasees notwithstanding.
Is Gold (GLD) The Black Swan ?
Frist off, there are several YouTuber’s that are providing an excellent service; letting us know the real state of the economy.
They are invaluable; thus, receiving their fair share of hate from those that don’t want to hear, see, or smell, ‘bad news’.
All of them willingly admit, they’re not experts when it comes to the markets … fair enough.
However, in Jerimiah Babe’s latest update, he may have unwittingly revealed a (or the) black swan.
Gold and the gold market.
JB’s offered the anecdote of attempting to purchase more gold at the dealer. For the first time ever, he was limited on the amount available.
From a market standpoint, the public, is all-in.
Even as we speak, gold (GLD) and the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are in a vicious downside reversal.
At this juncture, it looks like an upward test of resistance (discussed yesterday) is nowhere in the cards.
Price action for the most part, is straight down.
Which brings us to the charts.
GLD, Weekly Chart:
Marked up with resistance and the up-thrust reversal.
Zoomed area of the reversal
Personal Opinion:
Because the gold hype by the financial press was so incessant for so long (which by the way, has strangely ‘disappeared’), this reversal may be something that lasts much longer than anyone would expect (not advice, not a recommendation).
Downside Targets:
The weekly GLD chart below has a Fibonacci projection tool overlay.
A 161.8%, projection would take GLD down to 119 – 120.
Are the gold bulls prepared for an extended downside rout in the metals?
Summary:
Early morning food production.
It might not look like it’s connected to the markets but it is.
Market analysis presented on this site, helps steer actions needed to separate from (or reduce reliance on) the system.
Properly executed, trading is one avenue to provide income that’s necessary to eliminate the need for a corporate employer (not advice, not a recommendation).
Market analysis also helps identify what’s likely to come next.
But, I digress.
Getting back to the coop; four eggs a day … equates to over two dozen a week. Reliance on the grocery store (at least for eggs) has effectively been eliminated.
About a year’s worth of feed has been stockpiled.
Let’s put it a little differently; a year’s worth of feed has been ‘stacked’.
Personally, I like gold and silver as much as the next guy.
However, those in charge of this collapse have already stated, food will be used as the leverage weapon.
But hey, we shouldn’t have to worry about any of that, because, ‘The future’s so bright …’
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 