Even though scenes like this one, this one and this one, are now common, the mainstream still seems to be ‘mystified’ as to the cause.
With all that happening as we speak, Moderna (MRNA) is finding itself potentially rising to test the underside of its trend line break.
Moderna (MRNA):
Weekly un-marked chart
Marked up with trendline break
Zoom in, of potential underside test area.
Summary:
Markets like to test … it’s what they do.
Sometimes, as with the gold hysteria, there’s a story to go along with the action. All intended to herd the easily led into the wrong side of the trade.
So, it could be with MRNA.
There’s all kinds of nastiness in the guise of ‘new strains’ out there; likely to raise their heads before Christmas and probably after as well.
These events may coincide with the previous post about biotech possibly heading for retrace and up-thrust.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Trouble for Moderna was spotted a while back and discussed in this post … along with a prediction that class-action may be forthcoming.
Our stopwatch is still ticking.
Positions
The account positions are short Oil & Gas XOP, using DUG as the vehicle (not advice, not a recommendation).
So far, its been a lot of banging around without much progress either way. However, at this point, a new low for DUG, below today’s low would signal trouble for the short side.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
About a week ago, the fist bullet item in this list discussed Moderna; that when price action reverses to the down-side (after being a market darling), the lawsuits start.
It’s not the lawsuits themselves, but the discovery process that’s part of the trial … if it goes to trial.
One can guess with some assurance, the last thing Moderna wants is for this baby (any potential lawsuit) to go to discovery and trial.
This could be one of those times, popcorn is justified; watching it all from the sidelines.
Southwest Backs Off:
Looks like greed is more powerful than jabs.
At least we can see the priorities and keep that for future reference.
Now, all-of-a-sudden, it makes no sense to destroy executive stock options with forced collapse of the organization.
Glad we have such genius executives in charge. 🙂
Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch:
While all that’s going on, we still have the financial press talking about earnings and sales and ‘pent up demand’ like any of that is important or actually real.
The only reality at this point in time, is the price.
Biotech SPBIO, Inverse Fund LABD Analysis:
We’re going to start with the un-marked chart of SPBIO:
Next, we’re going to invert that chart; giving a better perspective of what the inverse fund LABD, is tracking:
Repeating a previous observation; price action over the last two months (from late August to now), has calmed down.
Price range has narrowed and movement looks orderly.
Our take on this; bears have assumed control and are preparing (opening positions) for a directional move.
Compared to my firm and probably anyone reading, their capital is unlimited. They’re also patient.
Depending on the level of greed, they’re keeping price action from a major breakout until positioning is complete (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff termed this phenomenon (a century ago) as the ‘composite operator’, or the ‘central mind’.
This is how markets work. There’s no getting away from it.
By making a transaction, any transaction, one has implicitly entered the ‘arena’ where the gladiators (the professionals) are ready to take all you own.
Moving in a little closer, we already have a trend.
Price action bounced off support on Friday (resistance on the inverted chart) but closed nearly unchanged.
My firm remains short SPBIO via LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
That is, until the market itself says the bearish analysis is wrong or it’s time to exit.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
You don’t have to go more than 1:18, into this interview to get an inaccurate definition of inflation.
With that said, it does not keep the (delusional) bugs in the comment section from eating it up.
The interviewer, if he had the strength, could have stopped it right there and challenged with: ‘Inflation is defined as the expansion of credit that results in increased demand that in turn results in higher prices.’
At this point in time, we’re in credit destruction (i.e. Wells Fargo shutting down credit lines) not expansion … um, which is deflation not inflation.
At this point, it looks like there will be complete destruction first which brings us to the next bullet item.
No. 5
Only Problems. No Solutions
Personal Anecdote. Skip to No. 6, if not interested.
Back in the day as an Engineering Manager, there were times an employee (usually an engineer) would walk into my office and give me a list of problems on a particular project.
If this happened a second time, I would sort of gently (maybe) let them know, ‘If you bring me problems, you need to have solutions as well.’
I also let them know, if they were not able to come with solutions, I would map out a long-term action plan (basically starting documentation for termination) for their continued development.
How many YouTube sites talk endlessly about the problem?
It does not take much effort or thought or creativeness to tell us what we already know.
This site not only presents the problem(s), but also presents potential solution(s) or action(s).
Example:
Problem: Markets stretched to valuations beyond historical extremes. Traditional methods of analysis (P/E ratios, Book Value. etc.) no longer work. The market could ‘disconnect’ and be unavailable to trade for days or weeks at a time (think Klaus Schwab ‘cyber attack’).
Solution: (not advice, not a recommendation):
Identify a market and trading vehicle that has its own direction and is separated from the overall mass-hysteria. Position ‘in and out’, as required in that market until such time there are other opportunities of similar potential.
That market thus far, has been identified as biotech, SPBIO. The trading vehicle is LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Any disconnect or surprise event is already factored in as a likely positive for the position taken, i.e. being short biotech
We’re not only taking this approach for the current market environment but the supply chain as well.
The supply chain shut down and the potential famine that will ensue, is one of, if not the main reason(s) silver and gold may be of no use (at least temporarily) in the troubles to come.
Well, it would not be a compete ‘Notes’ update without mention of Scaboo.
Here he is at his new home … a few miles north of town.
As mentioned in the last update, the hen that gave him trouble at the outset, well, he’s got that all sorted out.
According to his new owners, he takes his job seriously.
He protects the hens and is meticulous about getting them into their coop at night. He then goes to his own coop; sort of a personal man-cave.
This picture was taken by the new owner.
You have to figure they must be pleased with him to wait long enough to capture such a majestic pose.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Our ‘parabolic’ report on MRNA, was posted before the open, August 10th.
That post included the following summary:
‘This is the type of parabolic rise (and blow-off top) typically seen in commodities.’
Then, about seven minutes after the open, MRNA peaked and reversed into a two-day collapse over -25%.
Down-thrust energy, the amount of downward force in price action, was literally off the chart; the strongest ever recorded since MRNA, started trading in December of 2018.
Price action leads the news. This case was no exception.
This report, just out on ZeroHedge shows there’s a half-hearted attempt to draw attention to a so-called ‘rare’ side effect.
Even so, the insiders probably figure the jig is up and they’re bailing out.
The biotech sector (SPBIO) continues its bear market decline. Yesterday, it closed down over -32%, from its February 2021, highs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
In a situation that’s straight out of any typical trading text: ‘When a market goes into a throw-over and then enters back into the range, it’s a classical analysis sell signal’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
That’s where Moderna (MRNA) is now.
Moderna’s the ‘chief cook and bottle washer‘ for the world-wide kabuki theater. So, we’re using it as a proxy for the biotech sector as a whole.
Separately, biotech index IBB, is retracing but has not posted a new daily low.
Inverse SPBIO fund LABD, has formed an hourly reversal bar and looks to be forming a daily reversal bar. As of this update, it has yet to post a new daily high.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s just one more piece of pre-programmed trash that’s attempting to control the public’s perception and direction.
“Globalists Losing Narrative”
Give me a break. Globalists aren’t losing anything. At least, not yet.
Markets & SPBIO
The overall markets are still hovering at all time highs; even as reports like this one, continue to show that everybody’s all-in on an unprecedented scale.
Evidently, they have no plan for down … where the real money’s made.
Moderna’s (MRNA) in its second day attempt to breakout higher; all the while, the index itself (SPBIO) continues to edge lower.
The 2-Hour chart of LABD below, shows a potential trend.
As with previous analysis comments, we’re looking for a trend the market itself, says is important:
It’s clear, the trend (above) has been repeated several times in LABD’s own price action.
LABD itself, tells us to pay attention.
The right side trend line might not look like much … but it’s rising at about +45,500%, on an annualized basis.
Positioning:
A break of this trend does not necessarily mean we’ll exit out Project Stimulus position; not advice, not a recommendation.
We’ve got the hard stop discussed previously at LABD 21.77; again, not advice, not a recommendation.
Summary:
While the retail traders/investors (the only direction they know is up) go collectively insane, we’re keeping under the radar and quietly maintaining the short positioning in biotech.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Well, none almost, other than to be reminded the powers that be have absolute contempt for those that aren’t in their global club.
You have to wonder, what’s next? Maybe it’s time for the (fake, or real) alien invasion.
Maybe we’ll have a few more ‘planned’ cyber attacks … who knows?
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it’s more than a bit interesting the biotech sector with its quarterly reversal, weak 23.6% retrace, and now continuing downside (so far), is not a major topic of discussion.
This morning, Moderna’s (MRNA) attempting a breakout. It won’t look so good if it can’t close higher for the day.
The last update showed MRNA, insiders bailing out.
SPBIO looks to be establishing or confirming a downside trend-line. More on that if/when there’s confirmation.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
