Category Archives: SPBIO

Biotech Bobsled, Starts … Down

February 9, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, IYR, LABD, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

Slowly, At First

Of all the major indices for today’s (Wednesday) session, biotech’s SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse Fund LABD, had one of, if not the largest gain @ +10.48%.

The last update identified two sectors to watch for short positioning: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO; Short positioning via leveraged inverse funds DRV, and LABD, respectively (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since that post, DRV is up + 1.74%, and LABD is up + 8.58%, both measured on a close basis.

The ‘Big Reveal’

Remember: When price action turns south, that’s when the bad news comes out.

If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.

Anyone going to alternative sites such as BitChute, ZeroHedge, Rumble, know full well what’s happening.

Maybe we’ll have another distraction like the 100-th (at last estimate) food processing plant fire or even something totally retro, like a balloon flying across … oh, wait. 🙂

Biotech SPBIO, Leveraged Inverse LABD

We’ll get straight to the point as prior updates have built a substantial case for a long term, significant reversal.

Recall, LABD is the leveraged inverse of SPBIO. The daily chart shows the current set-up.

This site does not provide investment advice.

With that said, one could infer from this prior post (at the bottom), a position in LABD had already been established and included a hard-stop.

That was indeed the case.

Next Steps

There’s no guarantee on how far or how long a directional move will go.

However, for SPBIO, one can observe since the February 2021, reversal from all-time highs, a sustained, directional move typically lasts 4 – 6 weeks.

The next update will show the best chart timeframe (multiple days) that resulted in capturing the majority of the directional moves since the February 2021-high.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biggest Bull Trap, in History ?

February 3, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IYR, LABD, Real Estate, SPBIO, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 8 Comments

Slow Descent, At First … Then, Mass Sell-Off ?

The large number of VIX (volatility) Calls, tells us, not to expect an immediate sharp move lower.

Those Calls will likely need to be bled-off in value, before we get a significant downward spike … if there is one.

Market Summary, Watch List

Over the past week, there are two markets that are being monitored for short position entry: Real Estate and Biotech; IYR, and SPBIO, respectively.

After nearly five months of price action whipsaw and congestion, biotech appears to be in a nascent downside reversal. Real estate looks to have reversed today (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech has been the weakest (technically) of all the major indices (except miners, GDX and GDXJ).

We’re going to look at the daily chart of SPBIO, to see the opportunity and the risk.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily Close

Since late September last year, there has been sideways-to-up, price action congestion.

Price action today, appears to have resolved into a nascent reversal.

We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the leveraged inverse fund LABD, showing the opportunity and the risk.

SPBIO, Daily Close (Inverted)

The prior two days of Fed induced bullish short-covering hysteria, have resulted in a decisive penetration of the support level, as shown.

By definition, this puts us in Wyckoff ‘Spring Position’; be on guard for a potential reversal.

Positioning

There have been many false starts to this sector’s reversal as evidenced by previous posts.

However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Every trading/speculator has their own style and this site does not give financial advice.

With that said, a (highly leveraged) short entry via LABD, would have a hard stop at today’s low.

At present (2:15 p.m., EST) and entry at LABD 12.91 would have a stop at 12.45, yielding a ‘risk’ of 0.46-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakout or Breakdown

January 13, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

The Usual Suspects

During the past three months, biotech index SPBIO, has been oscillating, coiling like a spring; preparing for a dramatic move.

Then yesterday (Thursday), there’s an upside launch.

We now have price action instability; either the bulls or the bears are in control.

At this point, we don’t know who has the upper hand.

However, based on the list of recent news items below, it does not look good for the bulls.

Biotech’s Frankenstein

Within the past few days, we have this:

Deadline Passes For Pfizer To Submit Results Of Post-Vaccination Heart Inflammation Study To US Regulators

FDA Deviated From Normal Process In Pfizer Vaccine Approval, Documents Show

Former Employees Sue ESPN After Being Fired For COVID Vaccine Refusal

Lead Author Of Research On Pfizer And Moderna Trials Warns COVID Vaccinations Must Be Stopped

Pentagon Drops COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate For Troops

Let’s see if the market’s ready to hand it to this sector. What’s the price action telling us.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

The weekly chart shows the potetial breakout.

However, since we’re looking at this from a ‘going short’ perspective (not advice, not a recommendation), the chart following this one is inverted.

When we invert the chart, it takes on a whole different look.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Inverted)

If price action’s spent over three months getting where support has been penetrated only to have it fail into a reversal, the ensuing move has massive potential.

In Wyckoff terms, it’s cause and effect.

The ’cause’ has been three months of congestion. The ‘effect’ is a potential long duration, or wide volatility move.

Before The Open

It’s twenty minutes before the open and 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, is trading higher by about +3.5%.

This is normal behavior whether we have a reversal or not.

One last check of ZeroHedge, before releasing this post turns up this:

Senator Questions CDC On Why It Claimed No ‘Unexpected Safety Signals’ For COVID Vaccines

The ‘monster’ continues to grow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Claus & Effect, The Next Wave

December 24, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Catherine Austin Fitts, CVNA, NFLX, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, TGT, The Speck, Useful Idiots, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Unprecedented … Again

Nefarious forces operate in distraction and darkness.

“And this is the condemnation, that light is come into the world, and men loved darkness rather than light, because their deeds were evil.”

The year 2021, was the year everyone (except children) showed their true colors; they made their decision, knowingly or not, for darkness or light.

This year, 2022, is where the effects (or ‘side effects’) of that decision began to take hold.

Now, as 2023 approaches, we’re likely to move into the realm of unprecedented chaos and collapse.

As if on cue, under the cloak of this week’s holiday distraction, we have what’s possibly the next wave.

This could be the reason as presented in the last update, why biotech appears to be in the early stages of disconnecting from the overall market.

That separation may continue or not; price action is always the final arbiter.

The ‘Woke’ Go Broke

The useful idiots that comprise the ‘woke’ business crowd may be in for the biggest surprise in the coming year.

If there is one overriding theme to keep in mind for 2023, this could be it.

Separate enclaves are now forming of those who have not, will not, and are not going to go along with the ever more unbelievable narratives.

Here is a link to just one of those enclaves.

As a digression; in Texas, we’re just now coming out of yet another record-breaking cold spell.

That’s two, never before seen record breaking low temp events within the past three years!

How does that fit with the global warming narrative?

Anyone awake knows full well what’s going on … and it’s not global warming.

Who’s On First: NFLX or TGT?

Now that vending machine Carvana (CVNA), is out of the way, who’s next?

Partly as a result of economic decline and partly from the decision to take consumer spending elsewhere, Netflix and Target now appear ready to continue their implosion.

More on their technical chart conditions in the next update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Disconnects & The Claus

December 23, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, IWM, LABD, Positions, Russell 2000, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, TZA, TZA-22-02, Vernon Coleman, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Naughty or Nice ?

Biotech price action’s disconnecting from the rest of the market.

Around the last Fed meeting, biotech separated from the major indices, heading the opposite direction, i.e., sideways to higher.

We’ll see that as we get into the snapshots of the hourly charts (below), but first several clues on why biotech (so far) isn’t going along.

The Next Plan Rolls Out

First up is this, just out on ZeroHedge.

It appears the next push is on … and the target is the kids. Another wave of ‘protection’ is certain to boost profits.

Note: Those commenting on ZH have been ‘awake’ from the start; an invaluable resource.

Next up is this, just out on BrandNewTube; another clear thinker that helps ‘tie it all together’.

Is this the explanation for biotech’s current behavior?

Strictly speaking and from a Wyckoff perspective, we won’t know the real reason for a move until it’s nearing the end.

What we can see, is that character of price action has changed (again).

With that, we’ll look at the 3X, leveraged inverse funds of two indices, Russell 2000 (TZA) and SPBIO (LABD).

TZA & LABD, Hourly

The disconnect has been a recent observation.

We’ll drill right down to the hourly and put the charts one on top of the other.

We can see that while inverse TZA, is now back up to the pre-squeeze high, inverse LABD, is far below that level.

That’s not to say things can’t change quickly.

For now, however, there may be something else going on that’s keeping the sector buoyant and suppressing the LABD, inverse fund.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Now, Comes Deflation

December 13, 2022 By in 1929, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-22-14, Michael Cowan, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist, ZeroHedge 3 Comments

The ‘Pivot’, No One Expects

Happy days are here, again!

So, the Fed can pivot, and the bull’s on again.

At least, that’s what the media wants us to believe. The CPI is out, and ‘inflation’ has slowed.

The problem is, as Michael Cowan stated in this update (he’s done the work), from here, it does not matter what the Fed does.

The decline (crash) or whatever you want to call it, is baked in the cake.

Once deflationary forces start, it becomes a juggernaut.

The previous update on gold (GLD) showed in multiple time frames, upward thrust energy is dissipating; in at least one case, (weekly) it’s also divergent.

Now that we’ve had yet another blip higher, as expected, it’s rabid bullishness in the gold camp.

So, let’s look at what GLD, is actually doing. What does the market say about itself?

Gold (GLD), Daily

One thing is for sure; GLD, is at The Danger Point®

If GLD can’t hold above (and move above) this level, it may be in serious trouble.

Let’s look at it a different way … the terminating wedge.

A ‘wedge’ is typically the last pattern in a move up or down, hence the name.

As this post is being created (12:23 p.m., EST), GLD continues to decline from its open; currently sitting right at the resistance (potential support) level at the 168-area.

In a separate market, biotech SPBIO, has completely reversed its opening spike and is now posting lower.

We’re still maintaining the LABD-22-14 trade (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s CPI print and resulting price action, may be the kick-off to an overall sustained and persistent decline.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Imminent

December 9, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, Elliott Wave, LABD, LABD-22-14, Positions, Prechter, SPBIO

Waiting For A New Daily Low

Price action leads the news.

As with the Carvana analysis, a year ago which said CVNA, would likely not survive, so too it would appear, biotech is about to join the ranks.

Join the ranks but for different reasons.

Price action leading the news was a concept presented decades ago by Robert Prechter Jr., as part of his Elliott Wave Theory.

His view was the market indicates ‘social mood’; in that case, the market must go down first, before the bad news comes out.

In effect, the public has to be ready and actually want bad news and/or be ready for unexpected, cataclysmic events.

It’s the complete opposite of the accepted mantra, from financial advisors and media alike.

The bear flag in biotech SPBIO, has been forming now for three months. In the history of this sector, there’s never been anything like it.

The last update said there’s been a change in the character of price action; that SPBIO, is heading lower and about to threaten the bottom of the flag.

As we’ll see from the daily chart, indeed we’re getting close.

At this point, there’s no apparent demand for the upside.

Biotech SPBIO, Daily

The change in character is clear. We’re pulling away from the top of the flag and now, hovering at the lows.

Switching gears and going to the 3X leveraged inverse fund LABD, on the daily basis, we see repeating trend lines.

SPBIO, 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Daily

As the magenta arrow shows, we’re looking for a new daily high in LABD, to confirm the trendline; that high would naturally correspond to a new daily low in SPBIO.

As of this post (1:02 p.m., EST) neither one has occurred.

Summary

Even as the overall markets are mixed to slightly higher, SPBIO, is posting down – 1.51%; a possible indication it may lead to the downside.

Just exactly what ‘news’ is about to come out is unknown.

However, at this juncture with action pressing lower, it appears, the market is ready.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

LABD-22-14

Entry@ 18.905, 18.95*** Stop @ 18.36***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bear Flag, Break ?

December 6, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DRV, DRV-22-06, IYR, LABD, LABD-22-14, Positions, Real Estate, SPBIO 1 Comment

The Character Has Changed

It’s been more than frustrating attempting to short biotech.

So far this year there’ve been thirteen attempts; some successful, but most were not.

None of the attempts have captured the ‘big move’ that’s overdue for this market.

The last post essentially gave up on biotech, but it seems like the potential just won’t go away.

This time, over the past two days, the character of price action has changed.

Re-capping briefly, biotech SPBIO, has been in a bear flag for over two months.

During that time, it’s been oscillating and coiling; looking for a breakout to the downside.

As of this post, there’s no breakout yet but we’re heading to the bottom of the flag, with a change of character.

SPBIO, Weekly

It’s important to note, the pattern below, is unique.

The sector data goes way back to April of 2009. During its trading history SPBIO, has never posted a bear flag with a two-plus month duration.

An expanded version of the chart is below:

Now, comes the interesting part.

Going to the hourly, we have a trend line and a breakdown of intermediate support in the SPBIO 6,390-area.

This is the change of character.

SPBIO, Hourly

Note that we’re deep within the bear flag and at the right edge of price action.

We’ve got the trendline as shown.

Price action during yesterday’s session, contacted that line six consecutive times.

As of this post (12:50 p.m., EST), price continues lower.

Summary

So, is this ‘the big one’?

The correct answer is that it’s unknown.

What we do know however, just by looking at what the market is saying about itself; there’s been a change, at least in the past two days.

Price action’s breaking through support levels and heading for the bear flag lows in the vicinity of SPBIO 6,125.

A reasonable expectation is for some kind of a bounce if or when it hits this area.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

DRV-22-06: Closed***

Gain + 5.61%

Re-opened biotech SPBIO Short (not advice, not a recommendation)

LABD-22-14***

Entry@ 18.905*** Stop @ 18.39***

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Forecast … Pivot or Not

December 1, 2022 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-22-13, Positions, SPBIO, ZeroHedge

Multiple Scenarios, Going Forward

The ability to see multiple scenarios is like a Rorschach Test.

With each additional tick on the chart, it takes on a different character.

So, let’s look at what’s most likely, based on where we are now with one of, if not the weakest sectors; biotech SPBIO.

For reference, we’ll start with the big picture … the weekly chart to show the two-month long, bear flag.

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly

Next, is the daily for the past several months.

We’re at The Danger Point®; the test, where there’s not much distance between pass and fail.

Price action can (easily) go either way.

SPBIO, Daily

However, from a probability standpoint, we’ve been in a bear flag for months; the expectation is the test will pass, price action reverses and we get a downside breakout.

The hourly chart has the most likely potential outcome.

Pre-market action shows flat (as of 9:08 a.m., EST).

SPBIO, Hourly

The chart has two likely scenarios: one pass, one fail.

A less likely outcome is a straight up launch above resistance.

However, anything can happen.

Summary

With the Fed out talking hawkish again, we’ll say it again; there is no ‘pivot’.

Whether or not the press is intentionally miss-directing the narrative, in a sense, does not matter.

We’re looking at the price action.

Right now, it says, we’re at a dangerous spot and may be about to pivot (pun intended) to the downside.

Positioning

Not advice, not a recommendation.

No change since yesterday.

Short position in SPBIO via LABD; details are as follows:

LABD-22-13:

Entry @ 18.72: Stop @ TBD

Note: Positions may be increased, decreased, entered, or exited at any time.

***, Indicates change

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279