Category Archives: TBT

Bond Market (TLT) Blowout

January 8, 2025 By in Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , ,

Massive ‘Exit’

Even the dog is getting out of the bond market 🙂

For long-time visitors, we see years of ‘strategy’, playing out in real time.

One tenet of that strategy is/was, the bond bull-market (TLT) is over. It’s a new paradigm (not advice, not a recommendation).

Repeat Post From 3/17/20

Nearly five years ago, was this:

Back then … “we may be at the all time top”.

Extreme or More

So, it’s taken nearly five-years for the market to reach the extreme discussed here.

Does that mean we’re at some kind of bottom? Is it really ‘tax related’ as suggested in the link?

That’s always possible.

However, an alternate view of what’s going on is here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Enough said.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bad News Bonds

December 26, 2024 By in Bonds, Dr. Elder, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , 1 Comment

Stealth Collapse

Does anyone (thinking) think, the debt is going to be repaid?

What does anyone (thinking) think the DOGE Brothers are all about, anyway?

Does anyone (thinking) think RFK-Jr., is after Froot Loops and food coloring?

‘Sleepwalking through the markets’, as Dr. Elder put it, years ago.

The market itself tells us the most likely outcome, the crux of Wyckoff analysis.

Right now, bonds (TLT) are telling us, down-pressure (rates up) continues to build (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly

Will this time, be like last time?

Moving in closer on the weekly

We’re about thirty minutes from the regular session.

Bonds (TLT), are set to open lower, continuing the downward slide with rates pressuring on higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘No Hurry’ for Lower Rates

November 17, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT Tags: , , , ,

Of Course, Not

The Fed’s not about to tell anyone, what they (really) do, is follow the bond market.

When looking at ETF proxy for long bonds, TLT (below), one could infer, by late January, Fed rates may start going back up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Since we’ve entered a time where long secret (or obscured) truths are now revealed, it might just be, the public discovers (en masse) the emperor has no clothes.

Steve Poplar at ‘The Poplar Report’ has it figured out (time stamp 12:00, link here).

With that, let’s look at the bond market and see what it’s saying about itself.

Long Bonds, TLT, Weekly Close

Price action appears to be breaking down out of a wedge.

The potential?

Higher interest rates going into year-end (not advice, not a recommendation).

The result: fewer autos sold/financed, fewer homes sold/financed and possibly much less spending on Christmas.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Keep Eyes on Bonds

September 19, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TBT, TLT 1 Comment

They’re Calling The Shots

Just like that, bonds reverse; rates higher (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, it gets interesting.

The mainstream’s already covering; within hours (if not minutes) of the Fed’s move, saying if the economy ‘improves’ rates will have to move back higher; you can’t make this stuff up.

Rates are already ratcheting higher (chart below).

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

The pattern is clear; terminating wedge (not advice not a recommendation).

Pre-market action (as of 8:42 a.m., EST) has TLT, trading down (rates higher) – 0.84 pts or – 0.88%, giving further weight to potential (continued) downside reversal.

Fed Calendar

Looking at the Fed calendar, link here, it’s a very interesting date; ‘the day after’ November 5th.

Let’s see if the ‘rate cut’ is immediately reversed (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Reversal ? … Ruh, Roh

January 3, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, Wyckoff 3 Comments

This Time’s Not Like Last Time

The market’s down; bonds down at the same time.

Wait, what?

If the Fed does not lower rates, then bonds risk a reversal to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Of course, no one expects that to happen. No one.

Well, maybe there’s at least one, link here: 

‘No pivot anywhere in sight.’

Bad News, Bonds

It gets worse when looking at TLT. As we’ll see below, the chart has a (potential) repeating set-up, link here.

Long Bond Proxy TLT, Daily

The set-up is not complete and may well diffuse into nothing.

However, if it does not and we get back below the magenta resistance line, there’s likely to be some serious confusion in the markets.

Wyckoff said a century ago, those incorrectly positioned in the market, provide the fuel (as they panic and exit) for a directional move.

Just think about who’s (potentially) on the wrong side and what side that is, i.e., the bullish side.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

December 16, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, AMT, Biotech, BOIL, Bonds, CVNA, DRI, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, IYR, LABD, Natural Gas, Real Estate, Semiconductors, SLV, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, TBT, TLT, Uneducated Economist, UNG, Usual Suspects, WEAT, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Everything Happening At Once?

Not in any particular order; not advice and not a recommendation.

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the 80’s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

No. 2 Natual Gas UNG, is reversing. We’ll see whether or not there’s going to be a supply disruption.

No. 3 The semiconductors SOXX, now have a monthly bearish MACD divergence; daily and the weekly indicators posting even to prior tops (as of Friday’s close). 

No. 4 Components of biotech index XBI, are being shuffled around faster than deck chairs on the Titanic … or, the Olympic 🙂

Seems like a mad dash to add/remove, increase, reduce equities to prop things up. We’ll see how that turns out. Currently, XBI is right at resistance level, 86.50 – 87.0

Here’s just one example from an index, riddled with equities that have no P/E.

No. 5 Carvana is very close to posting new highs and potentially, running the stops.

No. 6 Has Darden Restaurants, topped out? 

The consumer is certainly tapped-out and no-one ‘needs’ a restaurant.

No. 7 Wheat is reversing; It is and has always been about the food supply.

No. 8 Gold, GLD, is currently not going higher (look at the divergences); silver (SLV) is in a major non-confirmation, down nearly – 55%, from all-time highs.

During the 1980s inflation, precious metals moved (upward) together.

Silver looks like it’s responding to the destruction/collapse of (economic) demand.

No. 9 American Tower (AMT), number two in the IYR index, posts a clear false breakout and reversal. 

If rates really are going (materially) lower, interest rate sensitive real estate should continue going higher, right?

No. 10 Which brings us to the bond market, TLT. 

Price action broke above established resistance, currently hovering above that level. 

It’s at The Danger Point®

We can see the set-up, a price action pattern repeated time and again, between the lower and upper blue lines, called a ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

While the media laughs at the bears, let’s just see how this all works out.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Rates Higher

February 16, 2023 By in Bonds, TBT, TLT

Nail, In The Coffin

If there was any remaining hope for the economy, the next leg lower in bonds (with rates higher) should just about take care of it.

Of course, if one knows what’s likely to happen, then preparations can be made.

The breakdown in bonds is already underway and this morning’s pre-market action (as of 9:08 a.m., EST) is more of the same … down.

The daily chart of bond proxy TLT, shows the wedge and measured move. With that said, there’s no guarantee of bonds heading lower, just probabilities.

Also, if bonds go lower there’s nothing that says they can’t just keep going … with rates ever higher.

Bonds TLT, Daily

Of course, one does not have to sit idly by and watch their account(s) be decimated with persistent down moves.

Leveraged inverse bond fund TBT, has been around a long time; it’s a viable tool to either hedge positions or trade outright (not advice, not a recommendation).

Leveraged TLT, Inverse: TBT, Daily

Within the past two weeks, TBT, is up over +11%, which is quite respectable for a bond fund.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hulking Shell

August 27, 2020 By in 1987, Biotech, BIS, Bonds, IBB, TBT

That’s what the average investor’s portfolio could be a scant two months from now if the analysis is correct.

Fotosearch_k7478570-BW-border

That is; markets are stretched to obscene levels, bonds breaking down, rates rising; the nearest corollary is August, 1987.

From a timing standpoint, it could be important.  That August was a Fibonacci 34 (-1) years ago.  Well within the margin of error.

Yesterday’s trade set-up (not a recommendation) was timed perfectly.

Today, that trade (if entered) would be up by about 2.8% at current levels.  The stop now gets moved to 15.54, today’s low.  Of course, this is for illustration purposes only.

For a bond trade, 2.8% is significant for a single day.  It looks like much higher rates are ahead.

Meanwhile, biotech (IBB) has given yet another sell, sell-short signal.  IBB briefly penetrated yesterday’s high of 133.39, and is reversing.

If price action continues lower, it’s a bull trap; a false breakout.

We’re actively short the sector via BIS (not a recommendation).

2020-08-27_11-53-45-TBT-Daily-5-bar-notes

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

Bonds: Back To Breakout

August 26, 2020 By in 1987, Bonds, Interest Rates, TBT, TMV 2 Comments

shutterstock_1713590722The bond market is key.

If interest rates breakout from this point, we’ve got a set-up that mimics August 1987, on steroids.

The chart below shows ten-year interest (rates up, bonds down) is back at the trend-line.

It’s before the open and pre-market (as of this post) also has the ten-year (and the TLT) trading lower.

Two well known and liquid inverse funds for bonds are TBT (2X-inverse) and TMV (3X-inverse).

A price action insert of TBT, is shown on the TNX chart.

There’s a potential for today’s price action to make a new daily high.

If so, a possible trade (not a recommendation) would be an entry at the last session high, 15.74, with the stop at the last session low, 15.50.

If such a position could be opened, the risk therefore is 0.24-pts, barring any catastrophic adverse move.

2020-08-25_23-03-54-TNX-Daily-3-bar-notes

 

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.