Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Russell 2000 has been recovering (along with the rest of the major indices) from the lows posted on April 7th, and 9th, this year.
What the index has not done, unlike the Qs, and the S&P is post new-all-time highs.
At this juncture, tracking fund IWM, is at a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace, and giving just a hint, it might be finished with further upside.
Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily
As the chart notes, we’re in up-thrust ‘position’; meaning, there’s no new daily low to help confirm a potential reversal.
As presented many times in previous posts:
‘In the markets, you’re either early, or late’.
Upside risk (on a short) is set at last Friday’s IWM high; risk is low (but not zero).
With that said, a short position was opened (after-hours session, yesterday) in the IWM, via leveraged inverse fund TZA, trade TZA-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: There was no ‘new daily low’ in the IWM tracking fund to ‘confirm’.
However, in the pre-market, IWM is trading lower at 214.72, and threating to post a new daily low at 214.13.
Open Positions
At this juncture, 8:50 a.m., EST, open positions are as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).
Short Wal-Mart: WMT-25-03, Stop @ 98.16
Short Tractor Supply Co.: TSCO-25-01, Stop @ 52.93
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.
If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.
One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.
What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂
With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.
We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.
Strategy, Tactics, Focus
The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.
Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).
However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).
The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.
Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
If there ever was a reason for gold to launch massively higher, huge gap-up open, you’d think it would’ve been yesterday’s bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, right?
Seems like gold, currently trading slightly higher (up just +0.19%), now threatening to go negative, may be tired of the never-ending ‘sky is falling’ narrative.
The overall public does not (or refuses to) recognize, ‘narratives’ are part of the deception, part of the manipulation (not advice, not a recommendation).
Wyckoff said it over a century ago, ‘Until you can ignore the news entirely, you will never be successful in the markets’.
Of course, gold could rally from here. Anything can happen.
However, we need to recognize, gold (GLD), is not all that far away (just 1%) from the level discussed in this update.
Strategy First
Trying to ‘figure it all out’, is not the essence of Wyckoff analysis.
Wyckoff attempts to determine the ‘what’ of the markets, not the ‘why’.
With that, there are three open positions: all of them short (not advice not a recommendation):
CVNA-25-05, CRWD-25-05, and WMT-25-02
Tomorrow (Monday) pre-market, an update is planned for short-covering exits (if any) and stop levels.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
For WMT, the past ten trading sessions, have all closed lower.
Performing a quick (visual) look on WMT daily data, there has been no other occurrence of ten consecutive lower closes, going back to 7/1/19 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Today’s close for WMT was 94.25; after-hours (as of 8:12 p.m., EST) has WMT, continuing down slightly, at 94.03.
Wal-Mart WMT, Weekly
As noted, there was an attempted breakout that has failed.
The blue line is now a significant resistance level.
Currently short (WMT-25-01), with a tight stop at today’s high, 94.82 (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As said in this update, the historic short-squeeze, while damaging to account P/L, was a huge public service.
This chart confirms the majority of short-positions have evaporated. Meaning, the potential fuel for relentless upside (from those shorts), is no longer there.
That fact is being mirrored in price action as we speak.
As covered above, two markets are hanging by a thread: biotech and real estate.
Both are bubbles on a world-wide scale, but biotech is the one that may affect all others.
Biotech SPBIO, Inverse LABD
As this post was being created, biotech leveraged inverse fund LABD, has just printed (as of 12:40 p.m., EST) outside-up; also known as a ‘key reversal’.
The daily chart is below.
LABD, Daily
To make it an official outside up, price action will need to close above yesterday’s close (LABD: 17.87).
We’ve already shown that SPBIO, price action has formed a huge bear flag lasting more than eight weeks.
Action from the past three days can be considered a Wyckoff up-thrust as well.
Now, we have a potential key reversal.
If so, this market may be in serious downside trouble.
Positions: (courtesy only, not advice).
Yesterday, JDST-22-05, was exited at 9.0341, with a loss of – 1.45%, so that focus (and capital) could be directed to biotech, SPBIO and inverse LABD (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 