Category Archives: Wyckoff

Gold … Bubble or Breakout ?

March 19, 2023 By in Derecho, Food Supply, Genesis 41, GLD, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 2 Comments

We’re About To Find Out

As this post is being created the Credit Suisse battle, rages on.

Recent updates are here and here.

Of course, it’s all planned chaos … but that’s a discussion for another time.

The apparent response from gold (GLD) over the past week, was to move sharply higher.

As expected, the gold bulls are in their brain-stem mania.

Once again. It’s a ‘new paradigm‘.

With that, let’s not forget the last time we had a ‘new paradigm’. Gold has not been higher, since.

Trading opportunity? … Maybe.

New ‘Paradigm’? … Probably, not.

Different, This Time?

As we’ll see below, there are potentially two outcomes for the price of gold (not advice, not a recommendation).

First: Gold (GLD) either reverses from here or moves slightly higher to the 187.50-area before reversing.

… OR …

Second: GLD, pushes higher, just shy of the 200.00, mark, while getting itself into a Wyckoff up-thrust condition.

The first chart shows the extremes as of Friday’s close (Sunday futures, yet to open).

Gold GLD, Weekly

Concerted effort to destroy (or pollute) the food supply began with the Derecho. That effort continues to this day.

Secondly, we have the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine. Note the GLD spike is lower than the Derecho.

Now, we have the banking ‘collapse’. Once again (so far), the upward spike is lower than previous.

Looking at the second chart, we see a Fibonacci projection to 50%, the GLD 183.77-level; exactly where GLD, closed on Friday.

Empirical observation over many years has revealed, if price action gets to a 50% projected level, it’s typically on its way to higher levels.

A Lower Peak

Even if GLD moves up to the 61.8% projection as shown, the GLD 187.50-area, it’s still below the prior ‘Invasion’ peak set at GLD 193.30.

If GLD, moves significantly past these levels, then it’s likely on to new, all-time-highs and a potential Wyckoff Up-Thrust (reversal) condition.

If it happens, we’ll address it at that time.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Alcoa: Another ‘Chief Cook’

March 18, 2023 By in AA, Biotech, CVNA, Speck-Effect, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Yet, One More ‘ESG’ Opportunity

Like Carvana, Alcoa has no P/E

However, before we get started, this just out concerning Biotech:

From the German Health Minister, no less:

“Permanent Disabilities”

In a way, it does tie into the Alcoa analysis.

As a reminder, the economic (and population) collapse created by protection from ‘The Speck’, will last the lifetime of anyone reading this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

To support that statement and expand on the enormity of what’s happening, we have this link.

‘Over the next 10 years, ‘Speck’ lawsuits are projected to experience tremendous growth.’

With that, let’s move on.

Alcoa & ESG

Just looking at the website, it’s an ESG cornucopia.

When looking at the chart, it’s (almost) a no-brainer.

First, the very long-term view (Quarterly)

Alcoa AA, Quarterly

On the long-term, we have the repeating market characteristic; ‘Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

A ‘test’ of that up-thrust has been occurring over the most recent quarter.

On the weekly chart, we see price action penetrated support with volume increasing.

Alcoa AA, Weekly

Technically, it’s a Wyckoff ‘Spring’ set-up. Some form of upward action next week is to be expected.

However, with the increased volume to the downside, probabilities are low at this point we’ll see any significant upside (not advice, not a recommendation).

Long Way To The ‘Open’

As said in the prior update, events are accelerating. The latest from ZeroHedge proves that to be true.

UBS Seeks Government Backstop As It Rushes To Finalize Credit Suisse Takeover Deal As Soon As Tonight

Another Nail in the Coffin

Looks like the Swedes have put another nail in the coffin for ESG. How long is it going to take for their pension system to fully collapse and then result in social unrest a la Paris?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bear Flag Breakout

March 11, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Wyckoff 1 Comment

A Long Way Down

On February 3rd, also represented as; 2/3/23, it all changed.

That was the day the ‘toxic train‘ derailed in East Palestine, Ohio.

It was also the day biotech sector SPBIO, reversed to the downside.

The biotech reversal was identified to the day with the following quote:

” … today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion …”

Biotech had been in a congestion zone, a bear flag, for an incredible five-months. There’s no other pattern like on the chart of SPBIO (ticker, $SPSIBI, on StockCharts).

The analysis stated that if or when this sector breaks to the downside, the extended period of congestion suggests a long, sustained, move lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

So, here we are.

Now, the downside reversal is obvious. Then again, it’s likely we’re still very early in the move as we’ll see below.

Projection Methods

We’re going to use two projection methods:

First: The standard classical chart which identifies a potential Head & Shoulders pattern.

Second: The century old technique of ‘counting’ via Point & Figure (P&F).

Biotech SPBIO, Weekly (Classical)

Two charts are in classical format. The first shows the trading channel that spans 39-weeks from week 5/13/22, to week 2/3/23.

Note: Let’s not miss the symbolism (also, here and here): May 13th, 2022, was Friday. Then we have 2/3/23.

“For we wrestle not … “

The second chart is a compressed view.

Note the “3,000-level”, discussed in the P&F section.

Biotech SPBIO, Monthly

If the H&S pattern is in-effect and the neckline is broken, we have a measured move projection to the vicinity of SPBIO ~ 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to the P&F.

The ‘P&F’ chart has been used as a forecast tool for over one-hundred years.

The idea is to ‘count’ the number of congestion points and then project that congestion either higher or lower.

In our case of a breakdown, the projection is lower.

Biotech SPBIO ($SPSIBI), Daily P&F

The P&F chart comes up with roughly the same lower projection; approximately 1,700 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking at the P&F, we can see a steady amount of congestion with few breaks, that is, until we get to the left-most area.

There, we have a break of twelve boxes.

In classical P&F terms, that break of 12, indicates the SPBIO may ultimately reach the 1,700 level, but price action could be choppy after the initial count.

That initial count equates to around 3,000 for SPBIO, which just so happens to be an intermediate support level as shown on the Monthly chart.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Intel … ‘Penny Stock’ by Year End ?

March 4, 2023 By in Barron's, CVNA, INTC, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Trading Channel

Beginning next week, we’re about to find out if Intel (INTC) is on track to be a ‘penny stock’, by year-end.

Stocks trading below $5/share, are technically called ‘Penny Stocks‘, and mostly ignored by institutional money.

Dystopian Hell: The Stage Is Set

INTC, has already cut the dividend by 66% (note the symbolism) and is ‘conserving cash’.

A large part of their operation with 18,600 employees, is just outside Portland, Oregon.

Here’s a recent look at Portland, uploaded two months ago.

‘Gee honey. Let’s take the kids and move to Portland … Not.’

Incredible, that ‘Speck Protection’ is STILL being pushed (time stamp 2:11). How would you like to work at a location at this late date, where it’s normal to wear a mask?

So, it goes.

All of this brings us to the chart. The price action itself defines the next likely course (Wyckoff).

Intel INTC, Weekly Close

Last week closed testing underside resistance and potential right-side trend line contact (second chart).

Compressing the chart and expanding the downside scale, gives us the following.

Just in case anyone’s skeptical about ‘channels’ not being a real potential, here’s the latest look at Carvana (CVNA).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly Close

It’s important to note, not only the channel but the location of “No P/E”, which was the release of this post.

Carvana never closed higher after December 11th, 2021.

Intel, What’s Next?

Will it be the same for Intel?

Of course, that’s not known. Price action itself is the final arbiter; at this juncture, it’s at The Danger Point®

This is where the risk is least (not advice, not a recommendation).

If price action moves significantly higher from here, let’s say 5%, then we’ve likely bottomed and are heading into a rebound.

If not, and Monday, opens and closes lower, it may be a confirmation of the right-side trend line and potential trading channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Breakdown, Breakout

February 26, 2023 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, The Speck, Wyckoff

‘The Court Jester’

Court jesters reveal truths like no other.

How appropriate then, that someone who typically plays the ‘village idiot’ comes out with the truth.

Whether the ‘false narrative’ is finally crumbling or not, is not directly related to analyzing price action.

It does, however, provide the backdrop.

The ‘Big Reveal’

The last update in biotech had this to say (emphasis added):

“If this is the big reversal and biotech is the downside leader, unfortunately, that could mean a planned ‘reveal’ by the mainstream media.“

What wasn’t known, was just exactly how the truth would come out. Now, we know.

All of which, brings us to the topic at hand: Biotech SPBIO.

It turns out, SPBIO, is trading most consistently, on a three-day pattern.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day

In Wyckoff terms, the market itself defines what timeframes and what support/resistance levels are important.

Next up, we’re going to invert the chart to mimic the price action observed on the leveraged inverse fund LABD.

Biotech SPBIO, 3-Day, Inverted

And now, the characteristics of this sector the market itself, has revealed.

At this juncture, SPBIO, trades in a sequence of 3-Days after which, if there’s a directional move, continues on for nine consecutive bars.

After nine-bars, price action typically enters a correction for an undetermined amount of time.

After the correction’s compete the market has (in the past) continued on a directional move for another nine-bars.

Then & Now

We’re currently in a directional move that’s five ‘3-Day Bars’ in thus far.

If the market adheres to its prior behavior(s), we have at least four more ‘three-days’ to go (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note, the current reversal was identified to the day, with this update:

“However, today’s action is consistent with resolution of the five-months of congestion (not advice, not a recommendation).”

The fact the congestion period for SPBIO has taken so long to (apparently) resolve itself, has produced the potential for price action to go farther, last longer than anyone would normally expect.

That move if it happens, connects well with the introduction at the top of this post; a large part of the public has been informed in no uncertain terms, it was all a lie.

The needle, and the damage done.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

NVDA & SOXX … Risk Reduced ?

February 23, 2023 By in NVDA, SOXS, SOXX, Wyckoff

At The Danger Point®, Where Risk Is Least

It does not get much better than this.

The weekly chart of semiconductor index SOXX (below), shows we’ve already had the Wyckoff up-thrust, the reversal.

All that was missing was the test. That is, until today.

The reportedly ‘good news‘ from Nvidia has given the SOXX the excuse to test its reversal.

Pre-market action has Nvidia itself is up +10.61%, and the SOXX currently up +2.42% (8:32 a.m., EST).

Conversely leveraged inverse fund SOXS is down – 7.15%. This is the opportunity (not advice not a recommendation).

Semiconductor Index SOXX, Weekly

With the SOXX open set for higher, risk on a short position (via 3X Leveraged Inverse SOXS) may be reduced as much as the market is going to allow.

Less risk is NOT, no risk.

The market is going through its natural tendencies, and this is an area where there could be a short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna Scenario(s)

February 20, 2023 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, KMX, MRNA, Wyckoff

Potential Moves … Potential Actions

In the markets, anything can happen.

With that understood, we’ll present three potential scenarios for Moderna (MRNA) price action for the upcoming days, or week(s).

When we last left our chief cook and spike-protein injector, price action was in a downtrend but also in Wyckoff spring position; indicating at least a chance for upside.

As with the CarMax (KMX) analysis, still playing out with Scenario No. 2, and/or No. 3, at this link as the forecasted price action, we’ll show potential Scenario No. 1 – No. 3, for MRNA, below.

Moderna MRNA, Daily, Forecasted Action

Scenario No. 1

Upside wedge breakout

Scenario No. 2

Downside wedge breakout with no test

And now, the most probable, ‘If there’s a downside breakout.

From a short-dated options standpoint, Scenario No. 3, is the most desirable (not advice, not a recommendation).

If there’s a downside breakout with no test, there’s always the possibility at some point, there will be a test, which in turn completely wipes out any potential gain in the (put) trade; time would run out and the option expires.

Re-Visiting, Elder

Recall, in the example that Dr. Elder gave, he bought OEX Put Options at 3/8-ths, back in the day when the markets traded in fractions.

Three-eighths is 0.375, which gives a target value on which option to select (not advice, not a recommendation).

To get to that small of a fraction, the option’s either way out of the money, short on time, or both.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Moderna … Options Strategy

February 19, 2023 By in Biotech, Dr. Elder, MRNA, The Speck, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Trend Contact … Then, Pivot Down

With a potential right-side trend (and channel) contact confirmed; shown below at – 86% annualized, odds are now favorable for a Put strategy.

In addition to the technical factors discussed, listed at the bottom of this post are no fewer than 22-links to the current fundamental state of biotech and their ‘handiwork’.

The weekly chart of MRNA, has a Wyckoff Up-Thrust and a test, confirmed by the downside pivot.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Notice the reversal action took place at a very weak Fibonacci 23.6% retrace.

The two blue lines on the daily chart (below) are exactly parallel.

The grey lines are parallel to the blue lines and intended to show MRNA, exhibits a repeating (downtrend) pattern.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

The expanded version on the daily has support being penetrated (horizontal blue line) and then ‘spring’ action last Friday as a result.

Of course, it’s ‘what happens next’, that’s the question.

In a prefect scenario, price action would thrust lower for a day or several days and then come back up to test the underside of resistance.

Elder Option Strategy

This strategy is taken from Elder’s book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’, and seeks to use as short-dated options as possible.

Doing so, requires the discipline to wait sufficient amount of time for price action to get into position and for option time value to bleed-off.

Potential Upside

Since we’re already in spring position and price action moved off the lows on Friday, MRNA could continue the upside right back to, or past the downtrend line.

However, with massive (undeniable) fundamentals building buy the day, and MRNA being mentioned specifically in at least one link below, probabilities favor the downside.

Supporting Links For The Bearish Stance

Florida Surgeon General Warns Life-Threatening VAERS Reports Up 4,400 Percent Since COVID-19 Vaccine Rollout

US Says Government, Not Moderna, Should Face COVID-19 Vaccine Lawsuit

New Medical Codes For COVID Vaccination Status Raise Concerns Among Experts

Watch: Rand Paul Grills School Of Nursing Head On Student COVID Vaccine Mandate

US Navy Lifts COVID Vaccine Mandate For Sailor Deployment

Mainstream Media Continues To Push False ‘COVID Heart’ Narrative To Explain Excess Deaths

NFL Players’ Association Urged To Screen for Heart Issues Over Vaccine Side Effects

WHO Suddenly Shelves Plans For Second Phase Investigation Into Origins Of COVID-19: Report

Watch: CDC Director Suggests It Will Never Change Child-Masking Policy

Rand Paul Introduces Bill To Halt Funding For Hospitals Denying Care To The Unvaxxed

Welfare State Weakens… 30 Million Americans Are About To Lose ‘COVID’ Food Stamp Handouts

IMF Says World Needs To Prepare For The “Unthinkable” After COVID, War In Ukraine

COVID Emergency, Climate Emergency: Same Thing

Novavax To Sell US Government 1.5 Million More Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine

“World’s First” Unvaccinated Dating Service Launches In Hawaii

Living The Lie

‘COVID-Curing’ Sorrento Therapeutics Plunges After Filing For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

What Can We Learn From The Biggest Lies People Believed About COVID?

Censorship Operations: COVID, War, And More…

CDC Director Defends Mask Mandates After New Study Shows Masking Has Little Effect

Bivalent COVID Vaccines Perform Worse Against Variant Now Dominant In United States: Studies

COVID NEWS COMPILATION WITH NUMBER 33

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Moderna ‘Channel’ … Redux

February 5, 2023 By in Biotech, Excess Deaths, IYR, KMX, LABD, MRNA, Real Estate, SPBIO, Speck-Effect, Weekly Wrap-Up, Wyckoff 1 Comment

… And The Weekly, ‘Summary & Strategy’

The last update about our chief cook and bottle washer of gene ‘modification’ had this to say about price action.

“We’re about forty minutes into the session; Moderna (MRNA) has just confirmed the up-thrust reversal discussed in the last update“.

From that point Moderna (MRNA) declined for seven weeks for a total of around – 31.5%.

However, that’s not the most important part.

In that update, a trading channel was shown which at the time, was declining at – 93.7%, on an annualized basis.

Well, the channel is back.

Only this time, probabilities and price action have come together to set up for a potential sustained decline.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

Above, we have a Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ and a test that has since turned lower.

Next, we have a series of repeating trend or channel lines.

Additional data has modified the downward slope to be declining at approximately – 90%, annualized.

From a fundamental standpoint, the data set is enormous on the events of the past three years.

At some point that data could provide a huge tailwind for downside action.

For now however, let’s stick with what price action is telling us and go to the Summary & Strategy

Summary & Strategy

The past week has identified two areas of position or trade execution and two areas for possible short-term options execution (not advice, not a recommendation):

Position or Trade: Real Estate IYR, and Biotech SPBIO

Options: Carmax KMX, and Moderna MRNA

As a reminder, most if not all trade analysis is for the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Final Thoughts

Since we have possibly the largest bull trap in market history with huge numbers of VIX Call options, the following week may be subdued by going modestly up, sideways or down, slowly.

With that said, options positioning (if any) could be slated for the week of 2/17/23.

As always, price action is the final arbiter.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax … Dead Cat Bounce

February 4, 2023 By in CVNA, David Weis, KMX, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, VIX-Calendar, Wyckoff

That, Was Then …

Back in October last year, the update on CarMax, said this:

“… there could be small blip up to resistance in the 85-area before potentially rolling over into a descent that projects to the 4.00, level.

If and when that happens, CarMax rival Carvana, may be long gone; its disruptive vending machines possibly being used as homeless shelters or insect farms.”

Even with the short-squeeze mania last week, rival Carvana, remains down a blistering – 96.2%, from its all-time highs; having reached an interim low of – 99.1%, in December.

Insect farms, dead-ahead. 🙂

The ‘Bounce’

So, does getting to a high of KMX 80.92, meet the forecast of “the 85-area” ?

It looks close enough, but the real story is the bearish trade set-up.

I’ve lost track of the number of Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’, set-ups that have been covered since this post, over sixteen months ago; we now have another.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Unmarked chart.

Long time users should be able to spot the set-up immediately.

For those new to the site or if more clarification is needed, here it is:

Getting down to the daily, is where a trading plan is created.

KMX, Daily

Several scenarios.

Three potential scenarios are below.

Remember, we’re in possibly the largest bull-trap in market history.

Those in control of the markets need to bleed-off the VIX Call options values by having the market go up, sideways, or down slowly (at first).

Here is the VIX Option expiration calendar for 2023-2025.

Going straight down at this juncture (although anything can happen), is not the most probable outcome.

Scenario No. 1

Lower open at the next session, followed by a labored move to test the underside of resistance.

The test can happen in one day or several days.

Scenario No. 2

Next up, is congestion tests before heading lower.

Scenario No. 3

Lastly, a steady but ratcheting move lower.

These are just three potential outcomes of an infinite number.

The market itself will give clues at the next session to the more probable outcome.

Summary

It may be after the 15th (past VIX option expiration), before there is a decisive move lower.

Not covered in this update is what happens if KMX, actually goes higher instead of lower. If that happens, we’ll post updates as necessary.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279