Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
On one hand, BABA, has launched more than 60%, off its most recent lows.
On the other hand, that launch posted the highest daily, weekly monthly, and (about to be) quarterly volume, ever.
Markets tend to come back and test wide bar, high volume areas. Just that probability alone, coupled with the unprecedented volume behavior on four timeframes, points it to the bear side.
Shorting China FXI, via YANG, discussed yesterday (not advice, not a recommendation), is essentially a BABA short as that equity is weighted more than 10%, in the FXI.
So, let’s take a look at what BABA, is saying about itself.
BABA, Weekly Chart
The massive weekly volume highlighted below.
Next, we have a not-so good-looking picture (for the bulls).
BABA may be posting a long-term Head & Shoulders top.
Next, is the daily with its largest volume ever as well.
Getting closer-in on the daily, there are support levels to watch.
At this juncture, early in this session, we’re at support now. Breaking down puts the next, less defined support into play.
Positioning
The last post, showed what was then current positioning in FXI leveraged short vehicle, YANG (not advice, not a recommendation).
During the session yesterday, the YANG position was increased substantially. Essentially, the low-risk opportunity was used to its fullest advantage.
This method of trading goes way back to Livermore, Wyckoff and Loeb
Livermore:
Focus on the big picture and strategy. Look for the (potential) big move.
Wyckoff:
Use what the market is saying about itself to find the danger point. The point of least risk.
Loeb:
Real market opportunities are rare. When one is found, it must be used to its fullest extent.
Do NOT diversify. Focus positions and time the market.
Summary
As always, anything can happen.
BABA is currently at one of its support levels and holding for now … bulls still have a chance.
Obviously, the active trade, YANG-22-01, is taking the bearish stance. The plan is to have a tight, in-the-green stop, soon (possibly today’s low).
As this post stated at the outset, we’ve got all time high volume on four timeframes: Nearly a bearish case in itself.
The high-volume area may be tested.
That means BABA (and FXI) price action would need to move lower to perform that test.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Huge truth bombs from a just released Stew Peters broadcast, linked here.
At time stamp 15:25, one of the major truths is Taiwan; specifically, Taiwan Semiconductor, TSM.
Why Taiwan?
Why focus on Taiwan Semi and its connection to the Emerging Markets, EEM, ETF?
We’re focused on it because that’s what the tape itself is telling us to do. The EEM, has already been in a sustained downtrend since mid-February, last year.
It’s been three successive (chart) quarters of lower lows and lower highs.
Looking at semiconductors in general, out of the top ten market cap equities in the SOXX, only TSM, is at or below its 23.6% retrace level. All others have rebounded much higher.
As Wyckoff said a hundred years ago … ‘somebody always knows something.’
Meaning, those really in charge (time stamp 2:53, above) already know the plan; their actions show up on the tape.
We’ll look at those tape actions with TSM below
Taiwan Semi TSM, Daily Bar
Moving closer in on the daily, we have the following.
It’s clear, at this juncture, price action has stalled.
Two sessions ago (Wednesday, 23rd) there was an outside down (reversal) bar.
This session and yesterday’s, have been inside action so far.
There has been no new high or low, posted.
Although today’s action posted below yesterday’s low, it has not posted (currently, at mid-session) below the reversal low.
Summary
Anything can happen.
Price action, TSM could launch upward past the resistance and continue to a 38.2%, retrace.
At this point, it seems to be low probability; all the good news (i.e., the short squeeze), may be out.
We’re heading into the weekend and we’ve seen over and again, that’s when things go sideways.
As Livermore said, ‘surprises tend to happen in the direction of trend’.
TSM, is and has been, testing the underside of its breakdown; it now appears poised to continue lower.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
All it might take, is one major ‘Carrington Event‘, Coronal Mass Ejection to rip the mask off Crypto; just as this link has done with the truth of ‘The Speck’ protection.
From a predictive programming standpoint, it’s interesting the typical symbol for crypto, the most popular ‘Bitcoin’, is colored gold.
Which brings us to the actual chart of gold (GLD).
Gold (GLD) Weekly
From a Wyckoff, tape-reading approach, we have to trust what the chart is telling us.
That is, gold has reversed.
Earlier posts on gold and the miners have effectively stated, there’s no more ‘fear’ to be had save an outright nuclear detonation.
If that happens, it’s doubtful that anyone will be running to the gold market for protection.
Does everyone have Potassium Iodide tablets? If there’s an ‘event’, they’ll be worth their weight in gold (literally).
The Noose Tightens
Constriction, elimination of the food supply (along with everything else) continues and is accelerating.
Fortunately, or unfortunately depending on perspective, we’re watching a potential major opportunity unfold.
That is, the opportunity to acquire hard precious assets when (nearly) everyone else liquidates.
Gold to Crypto
Is that even possible?
Would gold (and miners) be sold off to buy Crypto?
According to Kyle Bass in the link above, it’s already happening and has been for a while.
From a ‘beast system’ standpoint, it makes perfect sense, going from the pure (i.e., gold) to man-made, corrupt.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
One hour, and fifteen minutes after this post was released, gold and the miners topped-out.
Depending on the close for today, gold futures prices may post a weekly reversal bar.
If it happens, that’s an important nuance.
The prior reversal from all-time highs … back in early August of 2020, did not happen on weekly reversal bar or even a daily bar.
What does that mean or what could it mean?
Unlike last time where gold (GLD), hovered around its all-time highs for a couple of weeks, this time, it looks like it can’t even do that.
We’re at the danger point.
For the gold tracking fund GLD, the price to watch is Monday’s open at 184.45. Closing below that level, indicates trouble for the bulls.
Gold (GLD), Daily Chart
Twelve months of daily price action shows the build-up, to the blow-off.
Below, we have a ‘measured move’ target completed.
Then, we have a volume climax.
Changing of hands from strong to weak.
Such volume spikes typically indicate the potential for a long-term, sustained reversal.
Contrary View
This analysis isn’t contrary just to be contrary.
We’re looking for market truth. Meaning, ‘what’s the market saying about itself?’
Once that truth is found or at least probabilities identified, then it’s incorporated into a strategic plan.
Go-Forward Strategy
At this point, it’s more than obvious, food and the food supply, is literally going to be the choke-point.
As nations world-wide, scramble to secure reliable food sources, anything can happen. They can even resort to selling-off their gold reserves en-masse, to pay for the insane commodity prices.
Don’t think that can happen?
Well, oil futures couldn’t go negative either, right? Nickel couldn’t surge to record highs on the largest single-day jump ever, right?
London Metal Exchange (LME) would never cancel trades and fudge their numbers, right?
What couldn’t happen then, is likely to happen now.
There’s a chance gold will not post a weekly reversal at the end of this session (currently, 12:53 p.m., EST). If so, it holds open the probability for an upward test or series of tests in the coming week.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
There’s no telling if somehow, Taiwan (the nation) is going to be dragged into the fray.
Note: As this post was being finalized, we have this, just out.
The good news (sort of) is from a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, we don’t have to know the inside scoop on who or what has plans to do next.
To be very blunt, those in the know are so arrogant and greedy, their actions are going to show up on the tape.
That same arrogance and greed was rampant in Wyckoff’s day … why should it be any different now?
Taiwan Semi (TSM) Weekly Chart
As we can see, TSM closed the week just below support on very heavy volume.
Downward thrust pressure is immense.
The coming week could see an attempt to ‘relief rally’ or we could just continue lower in earnest.
If TSM breaks lower, it’s in ‘free-fall’ territory as there’s no real support until the 80-area … down nearly – 24%, from current levels.
Leveraged Inverse Fund: EDZ
As covered earlier, the leveraged inverse fund EDZ, has picked up in volatility as well as trading volume.
The daily (close) chart showing the breakout is below:
The second chart documents trade entries and current stop location (not advice, not a recommendation).
The entries may look to be at ‘elevated’ levels but recall in the last report, the market tested its breakdown … tilting probability to the downside (upside for EDZ).
Entries were made at support/resistance trendline break and test … ‘the danger point’
The EDZ, fund typically, is not popular and is normally very quiet; however, that all changed in the past two weeks.
The EDZ, Entry
Let’s dig into the nuances of the entry on the two charts below. From the closing chart above, the entry looks like it’s hanging in mid-air.
Looking the ‘prints’, shows the entries made at (nearly) the lowest risk point(s) possible.
The day prior to the 10.86, may have been the best but recall from this update, the entry was made as price action tested the breakdown of support/trend on the EEM.
The trade plan for the next day (March 3rd) was if EDZ made a new daily high, the breakout is likely underway.
Another entry was opened (mid-session) as price action pulled back from that new daily high (new low for EEM).
Note the stop was originally set at the March 2nd, low of 10.69, then moved up to 10.90, the next day.
If stopped out at this juncture, the entire trade would be at break-even (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note in the charts above, there were several false attempts to break to the upside. Each attempt was followed one or more red bars (candle) that negated the attempt.
The current breakout looks like the real thing but it too, was initially followed by a red candle (February 25th).
In this instance, price action reversed and started making higher-highs and higher-lows.
That was the signal to go long.
Summary:
At this juncture, trade EDZ-22-01, is fully positioned (not advice, not a recommendation).
Anything can happen between now and the open on Monday. However, the power of TSM’s thrust lower suggests downside continuation is a high probability.
Let’s not forget, we’re in a market environment where a ‘fat-finger‘ upset is not just a possibility but highly likely.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
A massive four-year top, along with the latest ‘road-map‘, has this one going down; most likely, for good.
While other chip makers, have gone to near stratospheric levels such as Nvidia, with its 23,960% gain from 2009, lows, Intel has languished.
The rest of the markets, S&P, Dow, QQQs, have pushed on higher while INTC, has spent the last four years, in a trading range.
A sideways market is a bear market.
Intel never recovered its luster after the Dot-Com mania of the 2000s. Price action spent eight years heading sideways-to-down before bottoming out in early 2009.
After that, it’s been a long struggle to current levels.
Now, the markets have reversed and the economy’s collapsing. We’ve likely seen market highs that won’t be repeated in the lifetimes of anyone reading.
Friday’s announcement may be the kick-off for sustained price action to the downside.
INTC, Chart Analysis
The daily chart shows at least one breakaway gap and possibly two.
The next chart is on the weekly timeframe and identifies the long, multi-year, topping pattern.
When looking at these patterns, be reminded about the scale of what’s happening.
This wedge is massive … at least four years in the making.
Note: Price action finished the day right at the lower support. There could be a rebound on Tuesday (market’s closed Monday) or we could just keep going lower.
The SOXX Connection
Intel’s fifth in market cap of the SOXX, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at the top of the list.
Even the leader TSM, may not be immune to trouble.
Here are Fab locations for Taiwan Semi, located just off the coast of mainland China … nothing bad going to happen there, right?
In the case of the ‘wave’ analysis, if it proves correct, we’re possibly in for a sustained ride lower.
The daily chart of SOXX, shows each analysis point where a reversal lower was projected.
It’s clear from the chart and documented links, both methods nailed it … to the day.
Elliott was earliest and caught the exact point of inflection.
Wyckoff caught the test of the up-thrust.
Here’s the important part:
Wyckoff is a practical, bread and butter method. It looks at what the market’s saying about itself … is price action showing pressure to the upside or down?
Elliott Wave looks at where the market could be or is going.
If we’re really in an Elliott Wave Three down, it’s likely to be a decline like no other.
There are other indicators not market related, giving us hints, a massive collapse is ahead.
A Decline of ‘Biblical’ Proportions
Warning:
The following contains scriptural references.
Those who are in ‘it’s all a myth and fairy tales’ crowd, feel free to scroll to the ‘Summary‘.
For the rest of us, the secular world calls it ‘systems collapse’. The spiritual world calls it ‘judgement’.
Stated many times on this site, ‘the church’ is corrupt. Here’s just the latest salvo proving that point.
Along with the corruption, we now have the strong delusions prophesied over 2,000 years ago.
In reference to a Stew Peters broadcast, linked here, on the numerous media lies, is this comment (emphasis added):
“The only people to blame for this Stew are the ones who put on the mask, who distanced, who took the shot, who harassed other people and who advocated for my freedoms being taken away. Without doing five minutes of research.”
It’s not too much of a stretch to say, those who voluntarily injected themselves were (or are) in a place of delusion.
“And for this cause God shall send them strong delusion, that they should believe a lie:”
However, the injections are no lie … but the reasons for those injections are false.
Can this (spiritual assessment) really connect with what’s happening in the markets? How does it relate to actual price action?
Obviously, it can’t and shouldn’t be said that any specific price movement has been prophesied.
However, we can use the scriptural references to point us to the probability of events; the big picture, the situation at hand, the signs of the times.
The probability that we’re at some kind of major inflection point of Biblical proportions, seems exceedingly high.
Summary
Both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Analysis, support the probability of lower prices ahead for the SOXX.
Because Intel (INTC) has been a laggard in the sector for years, suggests it may be one of the downside leaders.
As if to confirm the assessment we’re past the pivot, that generational highs have been reached, we have this just out, on ZeroHedge.
At the very bottom of the article, is a quote.
No, they’re not quoting from the King James Bible of 1611; they’re quoting from Shakespeare’s Richard III, of 1594.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s been long enough; most have forgotten the ‘Flash Crash‘ of 2010.
That crash happened in May of that year.
May of this year, would make it 12-years and interestingly, a Fibonacci 144, months.
Normalcy Bias:
As Nissam Taleb said in his book, ‘The Black Swan’, every day is like every other day on the farm, for Mr. Turkey … that is, until Thanksgiving Day.
Let’s take a look at the historical chart of Semiconductor ETF SOXX, and see the effect of a Flash Crash.
Easy to spot … prices did recover by the end of the day.
What about the next time?
This report just out on ZeroHedge, shows liquidity is drying up in the bond market. Actually, liquidity has been drying up ever since Dodd-Frank of 2010.
All of this is working (to increase risk) in the background.
Let’s take a look at another unprecedented event … the downthrust and apparent recovery in the semiconductor index, SOXX.
SOXX, ETF, Daily Chart
First up, is the unmarked chart of the index.
Next, we’ll show the recovery higher is on diminishing volume.
There’s no real commitment to the higher prices …. they are just drifting upward.
We’ve already shown the Elliott Wave assessment of the current structure. Now, let’s look at it from a Wyckoff standpoint; Up-Thrust and Test.
Price action posted an Up-Thrust, declined and now has come back for an apparent test.
Confirmation Bias
At this juncture, both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff Analysis present a price action structure that’s set for downside reversal.
In a way, we’re at the danger point for both methods.
Summary
From a personal and corporate standpoint, going long in this market and all markets for that matter, was abandoned long ago (not advice, not a recommendation).
To borrow a phrase from Dan at i-Allegedly, he repeats over and over in his videos, ‘We’ve had warning, after warning’.
So, we have.
The SOXX, is telling us, it’s ready to resume action to the downside. After-hours, already has the index trading lower.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
p.s. The insight of 2010 Flash Crash, anniversary of Fibonacci 144 months in May of this year, is exclusive to this site.
What if the ‘imminent collapse’ of the dollar is overblown by about 50 – years?
According to this just out, on private gold-filled currency, the article states average life of a fiat currency, is four generations. It goes on to say there are exceptions like the British Pound, continuing on even after hundreds of years.
The Black Swan
In Taleb’s book ‘The Black Swan’, he says it’s an event that nobody expects. It has long lasting repercussions and permanent change.
However, what most if not nearly everybody ignores or leaves out, is his alternate definition. That is:
A Black Swan can also be a future event that’s widely accepted as fact, that does not happen !!!
Is that where we are with the U.S. Dollar?
Even though the dollar has not collapsed and in fact, has rallied as we’ll see below, the ‘collapse’ talk continues unabated.
It’s easy to talk about dollar collapse.
It’s what gets the clicks. No matter that an actual collapse may be years if not decades away.
As of this post, how many ‘monopoly money’ YouTube videos can be found? Seems like it’s the same number or more than, ‘gold to skyrocket higher’.
Well, so far, gold has not skyrocketed higher.
On top of that, this site’s even provided an exclusive correlation that gold’s moving inversely to corn.
See ‘Insight Note‘ at the end of this post.
Ever since the ‘Derecho‘, it’s never been the same.
Back to the dollar.
No doubt, the dollar was whacked over the past trading week. Let’s take a look at what the UUP, price action is saying about itself.
Dollar, UUP, Weekly Chart
The unmarked chart shows the dollar oscillating, testing support for six-months at the beginning of 2021.
Then, in mid-June ’21, UUP pivoted decisively higher (gold, GLD, pushed lower) and never came back to those levels.
Of course, this past week The Usual Suspects were out talking about the dollar and ‘monopoly money’.
The chart below shows last week’s bloodbath has served to bring UUP, down to an established trend-line.
It’s important to note, with all that (down) volume, the most since early 2020, UUP was not able (thus far) to break through the trend (blue line).
That leaves the dollar at or near, the danger point.
Continued, sustained selling, risks breaking the uptrend.
If the opposite takes place and UUP starts to rally, last week may have been an inflection point (to the upside).
Gold (GLD) and the dollar appear to still be inversely correlated.
Summary:
Ever since removal of the link to gold in 1971, the dollar has the potential to collapse at any moment.
However, in this case, we at least have some historical precedent that on average, fiat currencies tend to last four generations before becoming worthless.
Wyckoff sates in his writings over and again, ‘somebody always knows something’.
If there’s a collapse afoot, he tells us to look at what the market is saying about itself (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279
Insight Note:
It’s been a strange coincidence over the past year or so, ideas presented on this site make their way to certain YouTube sites either in the titles, or within their content.
The timing of this phenomenon, that within a day or two, ‘post it first here, see it on YouTube there’, has occurred more times than one would consider as just ‘coincidence’.
Admittedly, the insights (making their way to certain YouTubers) have not been exclusive … that is, until now.
Recognition of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation, first posted here, is unique to this site.
As far as is known, this correlation has not been presented on any other financial site or YouTube channel or any other medium.
It may be an important data-point and map into this site’s long-time premise; it’s the corn and the grain first, then gold and silver (not advice, not a recommendation).
For more detail, search for Genesis 41.
When ideas from others are incorporated into the analysis presented on this site, full acknowledgement of the source is cited.
As Dr. Elder said in his book ‘Come Into My Trading Room’:
“I have zero respect for thieves”
He’s talking about the theft of his book title: “Trading For A Living”. He goes on to say, (paraphrasing)
‘Do you really want to use market analysis or input from someone that can’t think for themselves?’
Authorization:
Therefore, this footnote is authorizing the further use of the Gold/Corn inverse correlation by others in the industry if they so choose with the following caveat:
If one of the sites monitored (or some other media) uses this exclusive insight, and does so without referencing the source, it puts this author in the unenviable (but not unfamiliar) position of calling out the thief by name … not unlike what Stew Peters is doing (to the hoax/genocide perpetrators) on his broadcasts.
This market environment’s providing a fantastic public service:
It’s separating out the hucksters, the shysters and the otherwise incompetent from those who are, or who are striving to provide a service or useful insight.
The general investing public may find out soon enough, they’re on their own. Maybe unbeknownst to them, they’ve always been on their own.
For all of us serfs in the banana republic proletariat, it’s near if not impossible, to keep up with the lies.
The latest ‘employment‘ report is just one example.
This video from Jerimiah Babe, posted a few days ago has a different story. Check out the intro and then farther on at time stamp: 9:00.
For a second opinion, we can go to Dan, at i-Allegedly.
On his latest post, fast-forward to time stamp 7:00, where he walks through an outdoor restaurant area that’s completely vacant.
The ’employment’ report is vapor. Judging from the comments (at ZeroHedge) most everyone seems to be aware of the fakery.
Naturally, with all of this uncertainty and rampant inflation, the logical place to go would be the gold market.
Junior Miners, GDXJ
As this post is being created (mid-session), the Junior Miners are at the danger point. Price action’s at a location where it’s decision time.
So far, it’s an ‘inside day’. We don’t have a new daily high or low from the previous session.
The Fib retrace of 23.6%, discussed previously is holding for now. That weights action to the downside.
Posting a new daily high would begin to erode the set-up; potentially indicating GDXJ, is going to attempt a retrace to the Fib 38%, level.
If that higher retrace becomes a more favorable probability, the JDST-22-01, trade will likely be closed out (not advice not a recommendation).
The chart below shows the inside action thus far.
The table below has the current positioning JDST-22-01, via inverse fund JDST (not advice, not a recommendation).
As always, the sell finger is on the trigger. Description of color coding and table layout is in this post.
Summary:
Trade decisions posted on this site are defined by the price action itself (not advice, not a recommendation). Wyckoff analysis does not concern itself with what’s obviously fake.
Wyckoff focuses strictly on what the market is saying about itself.
At this juncture, price action’s saying that both bulls and bears, are at the danger point.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
