Category Archives: Wyckoff

SOXX … Stop, Drop, And Roll

April 30, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, Federal Reserve, Semiconductors, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Then, There’s Carvana

The SOXX, hit resistance, stopped, dropped, and could be rolling over for more downside … or not.

Maybe there’s something else developing.

Something like a set-up to penetrate resistance, creating a Wyckoff Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Daily

The magenta dashed line is the 38.2%, retrace for the entire downside move; from the top on July 11th, 2024, to the lows on April 7th.

Note the potential Fibonacci time correlation, just before the Fed announcement on May 7th.

As with Carvana (CVNA), we’re nearing a potential inflection.

Also note, Carvana has dropped from the current resistance area (around 240) making that level the more probable area for an up-thrust, rather than yesterday’s 310-location (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Nears Potential Set-Up

April 29, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Two Times?

Caravana’s earnings are coming up on May 7th, after hours.

Will it print (like last time) above resistance to the 310-area?

If it does, will that action hold unto the regular session the next day?

The reason it’s important as we’ll see below, a push above resistance creates the potential set-up: Spring-To-Up-Thrust, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The earnings release just so happens to be Fibonacci 55 (trading) days from the prior release.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Basic Materials … The Set-Up

April 21, 2025 By in Basic Materials, DJUSBM, Positions, Wyckoff, XBI, XLB-25-01

Under The Radar

Nobody talks about Basic Materials, so let’s take a look.

Like the rest of the major indices, the past few weeks have seen a downdraft, followed by a retrace.

The important part of this sector has been the attempted breakout and failure.

We’re using SPDR, ETF, XLB, as the proxy for DJUSBM.

Basic Materials XLB, Daily

For students of Wyckoff, it’s a typical ‘Up-Thrust’ set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

Opened short XBI, as Trade XBI-25-01, with stop at the day’s session high, 80.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 2

April 20, 2025 By in Bonds, David Weis, Ed Dowd, Greg Hunter, Interest Rates, Prechter, TLT, Wyckoff

Largest Downside Thrust … Ever

In the past few weeks, it seems like the markets have been whacked with a lot of, ‘the largest, ever’.

Trading in bonds, specifically TLT, is no exception.

While the media and pundits alike, deflect with ‘who’s doing the selling’ (hint: it’s not important), we’re going to look at the harder question of ‘what does it mean?’

Kick-Off, or Capitulation

Borrowing from research and writings of Wyckoff, Weis, and Prechter, when we get such a huge thrust downward (chart below), it’s typically one of two events:

A massive kick-off to much lower prices or a capitulation that washes-out the weak hands.

A bond upside reversal (rates lower) is a common sign of nearing or active economic downturn (not advice, not a recommendation).

In this interview with Greg Hunter, Ed Dowd covers the topic … the expectation for the reversal. However, that interview, was before the massive thrust lower.

Long Bond Proxy, TLT, Weekly

For years, it’s been one failed upside (reversal) after another.

Is this time, different?

The right side (magenta arrows) shows unprecedented thrust and volume.

So far, there has been a weak recovery to 38.2%, retrace of the recent down-move.

If that retrace level holds, with bonds continuing lower (rates higher), it does not bode well for the ‘capitulation’ narrative.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bond Breakdown … Part 1

April 19, 2025 By in Bonds, Goldman, TLT, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

The Big Picture

If things don’t change soon, the wheels have come off the bond market (not advice, not a recommendation).

At this point, it’s common knowledge the (U.S. Treasury) bull market of forty-years, ended in March of 2020.

It’s been nothing but rates ratcheting higher, ever since.

Recession Reversal … Where?

However, a strange thing happened on the way to the anticipated bond reversal … typically, a long-time indicator of an impending recession.

Just weeks ago, during the market meltdown with the largest trading volume ever recorded, bonds did not respond as expected.

The Blip

During that wipe-out, bonds (TLT) blipped higher into a false breakout, a Wyckoff Up-Thrust, and have since collapsed on the largest weekly downside (thrust) energy and volume ever seen.

Next update, the charts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech Craters on FDA News

April 1, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Bloomberg, LABD, LABD-25-05, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge

Someone, Always Knows, Something

One week ago today, was this (emphasis added):

If the trendline is in-effect, meaning the market’s hanging in mid-air in a false breakout, getting back into that trend may result in some dramatic downside action.

Well, we got the dramatic downside.

Biotech XBI, collapsed nearly -11%, and 3X Inverse Fund LABD, is up +38%, and climbing.

As Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Someone always knows something … and that ‘something’, shows up on the tape.’

It turns out in this case, showing up on the tape, was this, and this.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The chart from the week-ago post, has been updated.

As is typical, the ‘reason’ for last week’s price action comes out later, after the fact.

Positioning

At this point, trade LABD-25-05, is being maintained (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Good, Bad, & Ugly

March 29, 2025 By in Airlines, DIA, Dow 30, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Nasdaq, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SILJ, SOXX, SPY, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Three Amigos

The Good: Only the Senior Miners, GDX, have managed to claw their way past the highs set nearly five years ago in August of 2020.

The Bad: Junior Miners GDXJ, remain below that August ’20, level.

The Ugly: Silver Miners SILJ, are the worst, having their peak a bit later in February of 2021; they remain over -35%, below their highs.

The Market Rolls Over

Yesterday, Friday, was a down day for the Dow, S&P, The Qs, Transports, Airlines, Semis, nearly everyone.

For some of these indices, their all-time highs were posted months, if not years ago.

There may be some (bidding) ‘defensive’ action with gold (GLD) continuing higher; as said in earlier posts, the rest of the monetary metals are far below their highs.

Let’s look at the weakest; the silver miners, as they are likely going to be the ones most affected by an economic decline (not advice, not a recommendation).

Silver Miners, SILJ, Daily

We’re at an interesting spot.

Friday was a down day that pushed below existing support, shown in zoom area.

We have simultaneous action.

Once resistance was penetrated on March 18th, it could not hold. After eight trading days, on Friday, it posted lower on heavy volume.

However, we can see that SILJ, is now in (a minor) Wyckoff ‘spring’ position. So, the question is, what happens next?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Bleeds Down

March 23, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-03, LABD-25-04, Positions, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI

Loss Of Upside

‘He’s Dead, Jim!’

While we can’t officially declare biotech dead like ‘Bones’ Dr. McCoy, we can say the charts below, paint a less than bullish picture.

The XBI, is so packed full of nuances, it needs at least two charts.

Biotech XBI, Daily

First, apparent weakness.

Price action’s only been able to retrace 23.6%, after penetrating support (blue line) and forming a Wyckoff ‘spring’ set-up.

On the far right, just below the magenta line, the grey lines show a minor up-thrust (reversal).

Next, we have a series of spring set-ups, that have failed.

Each time a spring condition is created, price action rises for a brief period, then collapses.

At the far right, the spring (shown in the first chart) appears to have failed; now subdividing lower.

Positioning

During Friday’s session, as price action began to rise unexpectedly, short LABD-25-03, was closed.

Then, late in the day after XBI appeared to have reached its high and reversed, a new short position, LABD-25-04, was opened (not advice, not a recommendation).

Obviously, the expectation for the coming week, is XBI to continue lower.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … ‘Out of Gas’

March 21, 2025 By in Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Repeating Pattern

First biotech, now Carvana.

Yesterday’s mid-session update said Carvana’s posting a repeating pattern.

That pattern is what’s called a Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

Even before, yesterday, this update said we’re expecting some kind of bounce.

Well, we got it; then, price action went on to post a potential reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s session may or may not contain a ‘test’ of that (reversal) action.

Let’s go to the chart.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

There’s a lot going on.

As the chart notes, when taking the retrace measurement from the after-hours high of 310, posted during the earnings release, yesterday’s action topped out right at the Fibonacci 23.6%, level.

We’re about twenty-minutes before the regular session; CVNA, is trading lower by 3.6-pts.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Update & Carvana

March 20, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, CVNA, David Weis, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 1 Comment

Bump & Run

We’ll cut straight to the chase.

Biotech XBI, pushed all the way up in the early session to close Tuesday’s gap.

Once that was complete, it’s now reversing to the downside.

Bottom line: LABD-25-03, is being maintained at trader’s discretion (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately Carvana, has just posted a repeating pattern (chart later): Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

As Fred Sanford used to say. ‘This could be the big one‘ (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279