Sunday Night Futures

July 6, 2025 By in 2007 - 2008, ESU25, Gold & Silver, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

Buy The Rumor …

Will the coming week, be:

Sell, the news?

The S&P opened slightly lower, and is holding steady, unchanged.

Gold is unchanged, as well.

We’re ninety minutes into the session, relative calm.

There is one market nuance to consider. Most, if not nearly all who read what is next, may take no notice or disregard.

That’s your choice.

However, the S&P futures ESU25, posted a high at the last regular session, of 6333.25.

Seems like it might just be an oddity (easily surpassed); that is, until one considers the same index, posted a bottom of 666.67, at the 2009, low.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s New (closing) High

July 5, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-06, Positions, Up-Thrust

Grinding its way, to a Set-Up

Will Carvana make it to all-time-highs, or is this, it?

During the past (shortened) week, CVNA, could not print higher, but it did close (barely) higher than June 4th, high of 345.64.

Therefore, on a close basis, we have a potential up-thrust condition (not advice, not a recommendation).

The last short in Carvana, CVNA-25-06, was stopped out with a 2.5%, loss.

Admittedly, it was an ‘iffy’ trade, but even so, the risk was well defined (the June 26th high).

Now, we have another potential set-up, with possibly even better time sequencing and price action position.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

From closing high, to closing high, was Fibonacci 21 Days. From low close, to high close, was Fibonacci 13 Days.

There’s even another correlation (not shown), from low close (6/16), to test low (6/26), a Fibonacci 8-Days.

Futures Markets, Back Off

Friday’s futures action may be giving us a hint of what’s to come at the open, Sunday night (tomorrow).

Carvana, CVNA, is not classified as an EXTO vehicle, so, we’ll have to wait for the Monday session to see what happens.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia’s … Timed Top

July 4, 2025 By in GDXJ, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01 2 Comments

Fibonacci, still In-Effect?

Insight on Nvidia’s adherence to Fibonacci, began over a year ago, with this post.

That update, identified the (interim) reversal correctly.

Since then, price action continued and has now, this (shortened) week, posted another potential correlation.

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

The week closed with a high, 55-weeks from the ‘Week 89’ high, making a total of Fibonacci 144 (-1) weeks, from the October 2022, lows.

One might ask, can it be this precise?

To answer that question, we’ll go back to this analysis.

The next (trading) day, Junior Miners GDXJ, printed a new daily high (55-Days), then reversed lower for 24-weeks, a total decline over 50%.

So, it turns out, it can be that precise if market conditions are in favor, and nobody’s looking (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX, (false) Breakout?

July 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXX, SOXX-25-01, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust 2 Comments

Edge-of-the-Lake

At the end of the session, yesterday, a short was opened in the SOXX, as trade, SOXX-25-01 (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll see below, price action finally penetrated long-standing resistance around 240 – 243, and then (so far), has stopped dead.

In the overnight session, SOXX churned higher to post 243.63, and is hovering around that level, in the pre-market.

There’s no doubt we’re at ‘the edge of the lake’, as David Weis, used to say.

Semiconductor SOXX, Daily Close

It’s important to note, big cap Nvidia, is in Spring-to-Up-Thrust condition (chart not shown), with it posting new all-time-highs.

If NVDA confirms an up-thrust and heads lower, it’s likely to take the rest of the (SOXX) market down as well.

Market Positions

Positioned short the SOXX, with a stop yet to be determined; somewhere around the overnight high of 243.63 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Separately, stop on GDX short, DUST-25-05 is being moved up to the vicinity of yesterday’s low, 23.98 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners & CrowdStrike

July 2, 2025 By in CRWD, DUST, DUST-25-05, GDX, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Positions

A Tale of Two ‘Set-Ups’

When looking at the price action of Senior Miners, GDX, you get the sense, ‘it had to be this way’.

That is, the only way to get up enough energy to close the gap shown below, was to have two successive (lower) ‘spring’ attempts.

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Yesterday’s action closed the gap.

What comes next is unknown, but we do have a ‘line in the sand’; that is, if miners (and gold) are to continue on a potential ‘hyperinflation breakout’, then, GDX must post a new daily high above yesterday’s 53.04, at some point.

Either way, Hard Stop of DUST-25-05, at 23.69 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Now, on to CrowdStrike.

CrowdStrike, CRWD, Daily

Yesterday’s action was ‘outside-down’.

We’re right at resistance, that will become support if CRWD, is able to rally from here.

If not, and CRWD posts (consistently) below resistance, then we’re at the top edge of a rising wedge pattern that’s been forming since July, of last year.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Mid-Session Update

July 1, 2025 By in David Weis, DUST, DUST-25-05, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO-25-01, TZA-25-03, WMT-25-03, Wyckoff

Position Summary

Watching it all, in real time. 🙂

All positions stopped out.

However, that’s not the end of the story.

Miners, GDX, have just posted a Spring-to-Up-Thrust.

Short this sector via DUST as DUST-25-05, with stop at the session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Charts to follow.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Russell 2000 … Reversal Ready

July 1, 2025 By in S&P 500, Russell 2000, Positions, IWM, QQQ, Nasdaq, TZA, WMT, WMT-25-03, TSCO, TZA-25-03, TSCO-25-01

Looking for, New Daily Low

The Russell 2000 has been recovering (along with the rest of the major indices) from the lows posted on April 7th, and 9th, this year.

What the index has not done, unlike the Qs, and the S&P is post new-all-time highs.

At this juncture, tracking fund IWM, is at a Fibonacci 61.8%, retrace, and giving just a hint, it might be finished with further upside.

Russell 2000 ETF, IWM, Daily

As the chart notes, we’re in up-thrust ‘position’; meaning, there’s no new daily low to help confirm a potential reversal.

As presented many times in previous posts:

‘In the markets, you’re either early, or late’.

Upside risk (on a short) is set at last Friday’s IWM high; risk is low (but not zero).

With that said, a short position was opened (after-hours session, yesterday) in the IWM, via leveraged inverse fund TZA, trade TZA-25-03 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Note: There was no ‘new daily low’ in the IWM tracking fund to ‘confirm’.

However, in the pre-market, IWM is trading lower at 214.72, and threating to post a new daily low at 214.13.

Open Positions

At this juncture, 8:50 a.m., EST, open positions are as follows (not advice, not a recommendation).

Short Wal-Mart: WMT-25-03, Stop @ 98.16

Short Tractor Supply Co.: TSCO-25-01, Stop @ 52.93

Short IWM: TZA-25-03: Stop @ 11.68

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tractor Supply … Tests Reversal

June 30, 2025 By in David Weis, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, TSCO, Wyckoff

Once Again, The Pattern Repeats

There’s nothing exciting about Tractor Supply Co., (TSCO), except, maybe, the repeating pattern.

Looking at the chart on a close basis, we have a potential Spring-to-Up-Thrust (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tractor Supply Co., Daily Close

At this point, it appears that volume is contracting on the upward test.

However, we’re still two-hours to go, before the close.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

June 29, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Bonds, Car Questions Answered, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, SLV, UNG, WMT, WMT-25-03

Bonds & The Economy

Not getting much attention in the media yet, is what looks like a slow (nascent), upside reversal, of long-bonds.

Here’s an excellent description of what’s going on with the yield curve, link here.

However, there’s one potential error (depending on data used), in the link above, the job market.

Real unemployment numbers can be found here.

It says, we’re already at ‘depression era’ levels of 25% unemployment.

If anyone’s skeptical of alternate numbers, the official numbers have already been proven to be ‘in-question’.

One of the best examples of ‘official’ data, or lack thereof, is this report.

What’s a million jobs or so, between friends. 🙂

With mass layoffs starting, also, here and here, that 25% number above, is likely to increase significantly.

We can even add some anecdotal evidence, link here.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

The price action of the market itself, is telling us where to go for opportunity.

Upside may still be there, if one wants to position in the A.I. bubble (not advice, not a recommendation).

However, for over eighteen months, this site’s been profitable only positioning to the short-side (UNG, the exception) and sees no reason to join the crowd buying into the A.I. mania (not advice not a recommendation).

The current focus is on WMT, a sleeper, not-doing-much, for years, that may be about to get interesting.

Currently short as WMT-25-03, with stop at last week’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279