Tag Archives: economy

Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Breaks Trend … Down

June 28, 2025 By in David Weis, GLD, Gold & Silver, One Way Pockets, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Spike Lower, or Long Term?

Seven weeks ago, was this post, giving a ‘heads up’, gold (GLD), had just printed massive upward thrust energy.

A print like that, happened only once before, near the 2011, top.

From that top, GLD, traded in a range for over a year before heading into a sustained decline.

That decline lasted three years, GLD down -46%.

So, here we are. 🙂

We’ve posted massive upward thrust energy seen only once before, a potential top, sideways action for just over two-months; then, trend breaks down.

Sounds about right.

Now, all-of-a sudden, professionals may be selling (or set, to sell), link here (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold GLD, Daily Close

We’re going to look at GLD, a bit differently. That is, the repeating pattern of Spring-to-Up-Thrust, link here.

Human psychology does not change.

Buying on the way down.

From ‘One Way Pockets’, first published in 1917, the author had access to client accounts, analyzing their behavior over bull and bear cycles.

From his findings:

Once a stock had reached its peak and started a long decline, that’s where most of it was ‘handed out’. Sold to the public as it was moving lower … then, lower, still.

Wyckoff seconds this truth; ‘those on the wrong side of the trade, provide (most of) the fuel, for the way lower’.

Short Term, Long Term, or Not at All

As this update presented, we’ve had a potential top indication for GLD that’s only happened once before.

The last time, it was over four years before GLD, bottomed and started the next bull run.

It’s impossible to know if this time is different.

However, price action itself, will tell us the next probable direction.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

U.S. Steel & The ‘Deal’

May 26, 2025 By in BA, BA-25-02, Positions, Wyckoff, X, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

Another Short Opportunity?

A pattern is starting to emerge.

First, it was Boeing, now, it’s U.S. Steel.

Price action moves higher on news.

Trump Endorses U.S. Steel-Nippon Deal, link here.

Nippon purchase of U.S. Steel gets Trump’s approval for ‘planned partnership’, link here.

The ‘pattern’ begs the question: Can these upward ‘blips’ be sustained?

Blip Before Trip?

At this point, the answer to Boeing’s ‘blip’ from this site’s perspective is no (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, the short on Boeing (BA-25-02), could be stopped-out at the next session. Anything can happen.

Then, what about U.S. Steel?

U.S. Steel, X, Weekly

Price action has penetrated resistance which puts X, technically, in Wyckoff ‘Up-Thrust’ position.

There are several differences between the potential short set-up for X, and the one for BA.

First, the ‘spring’ portion on X, is missing, or not readily apparent like what can be seen here.

What Is & What May Be

Secondly, in Boeing’s case, events have already happened; production problems, design problems, quality control, labor disputes, bond ratings, already present.

Short trade (BA-25-02) anticipates, when ‘the blip is gone‘, focus on all things wrong with BA, will return.

The difference with U.S. Steel, a short would be in anticipation of things not yet present, to appear, such as the merger falling apart or some other event that negates the scenario.

Taking the two factors into account, no ‘spring’ portion of the set-up and anticipating things yet to appear, we’ll stand aside on shorting X, for now (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sentiment … Volume … Price

May 24, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-03, CVNA-25-04, Michael Bordenaro, Positions Tags: , , , 1 Comment

Typical Phases of Reversal

Of course, it’s not obvious until it is, and then, it’s too late.

For Carvana, we definitely have the sentiment with the last earnings release.

A stellar quarter, but the future, not so much.

In just over two-weeks since then, bond prices are lower, rates higher and threatening to completely unravel, link here.

Carvana CVNA, Daily Close

Let’s put our recent (short) positioning activity into perspective.

That tiny little ‘blip’, at the far right, is where we’ve been attempting to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

The area is expanded, below.

Prices are either congesting for a sustained launch higher or preparing to reverse.

That puts us at, The Danger Point®

Note that volume is contracting with Friday’s close, below the prior tops.

We have ‘sentiment’, now ‘volume’, then (maybe) price.

Positioning

Friday’s close could have been that ‘price’ part of the equation. We’ll see in the coming week.

The last update said, if there was buoyancy, CVNA-25-03, may be exited; that’s what happened.

Then, right at the close, another short: CVNA-25-04, with a stop near the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

May 4, 2025 By in CLM25, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Oil, Oil & Gas, SLV, XOP Tags: 1 Comment

Gold, Silver & The Oil Patch

We’re about three-hours into the Sunday overnight session and here’s what’s happening, and what’s not.

Both gold and silver are holding steady; oil, has opened gap-down, trading lower by -3.4%.

Yesterday’s update showed the oil patch to be ‘exceptionally’ weak. The Sunday night open, is confirming that assessment (not advice, not a recommendation).

Market Directed Action

The market itself tells us where to go for opportunity.

At this point, it’s telling us to focus on the oil sector.

Looking at the futures contract, CLM25, there’s not a single major gap that has not been filled or nearly filled.

That tells us, probabilities point to some kind of upward move (to close the gap) which in turn, tells us to monitor the sector (ETF) index, XOP.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … Edge of The Abyss

March 19, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , 1 Comment

There Is No Bounce …

Normal market behavior when penetrating well established support, is some kind of bounce … higher.

What happens, when that doesn’t happen?

What does it mean?

Well, one way to think about it, is this link.

Experts Say: ‘There Is No Recession’

Since 1980, This Has Signaled The Lows Are In: Link here.

Is It Safe to Get Back In? Link here

Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.

Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂

Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.

David Weis 1980s

Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.

He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):

‘We considered none of these things …’

That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.

With that, we have Carvana.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

What can be said?

After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.

This post is coming out before the regular open.

CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.

The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.

While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Corn, Nat-Gas, Oil, … Higher

January 12, 2025 By in Corn, GLD, Gold & Silver, Inflation, Oil, Oil & Gas, Palladium, Platinum, SLV, SOYB, USO Tags: , , , ,

A Commodity Rotation?

Those commodities, along with soybeans, palladium, platinum, and yes, gold and silver, have rotated higher in unison, over the past one-to-two weeks.

Is it just a coincidental blip or is there something else?

Each may have their own narrative like the ever-present and (super) simplified mantra for gold, ‘inflation’.

What about silver, platinum and palladium?

They have not followed in the (real inflation) footsteps of late 70s and early 80s, where all were moving in tandem.

This time, only gold is at or near all-time highs.

This update is just noting the rotating action of all the commodities discussed.

Further analysis, to come

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Trump Predicts ‘Depression’

January 1, 2025 By in Appalachia's Homestead, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Greater Depression, Jerimiah Babe, S&P, S&P 500, SPY Tags: , ,

So, Here We Are

Looks like it’s official with a statement of the obvious, link here.

This site’s first mention of ‘depression’ likelihood, was here, over three years ago.

From that, we have this on The Great Depression:

  1. Intentional destruction of the food supply
  2. Real unemployment numbers falsified
  3. People starved to death

Of course, others have been sounding the alarm.

First mention of Jerrimiah Babe, four years ago, link here. Appalachia’s Homestead, three-years ago, link here.

Brass Tacks

So, this is where it gets real.

Starting tomorrow, January 2nd, we may see what the New Year holds.

Will we get the ‘normal’ January effect bounce or are we going to decline straight-away (not advice, not a recommendation).

Results: 2024

For the year just-ended, Three Ten Trading, LLC executed a total of 453-trades.

Every single one, except for Nat Gas, UNG were to the short side.

For the year, the S&P 500, gained approximately 25%.

The corporate account (un-audited) for the same period, posted gains well into triple-digits.

It’s important to note, this gain was achieved going short (except as noted) in an overall rising market.

What happens if or when, that market trend turns lower?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bonds Down (rates up) … Again

October 10, 2024 By in Bonds, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, TLT Tags: , , , ,

‘Investors’ Lose Confidence

We’re still in the pre-market (9:13 a.m., EST) but already, long bonds (TLT), are trading lower with rates higher.

The current bond reversal was first discussed in this post.

Part of what was said (then) is to watch how the press paints the picture; that is, to get your popcorn ready.

Cue The Press

So, the ‘press’ has decided that ‘investors’ are losing confidence in the Fed.

Instead of highlighting wrong-think about who is leading whom (hint, bonds are in charge, not the Fed), we’re going to ‘let the trade do the talking’ or the analysis, as it were.

Long Bonds TLT, Daily Close

Back then (September 19th), wedge identified.

Moving on to now.

We’ll propose that investors are not losing confidence in the Fed.

No, we’re in a new paradigm, catching many off-guard; unsure as to what data to believe and how to position.

This site is using the method described in the About section. You’re watching in real time, how that method fares under the current chaotic market conditions.

As Buffett is attributed to saying.

‘When the tide goes out, that’s when you find out who’s been swimming naked’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279