Tag Archives: stocks

Carvana Launches, After-Hours

December 6, 2025 By in AMZN, AMZN-25-01, APP, Artificial Intelligence, CVNA, HOOD, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, Semiconductors, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , , Leave a comment

To be Part of S&P

Now we know the reason for nine-straight higher closes.

Wyckoff said a century ago:

‘Somebody always knows something’

That ‘something‘, then, shows up on the tape.

Inclusion in the S&P notwithstanding, ‘fundamentals’ for Carvana have not changed.

Here’s a recent report on what’s happening behind the scenes. Note: In the comments section, one reply suggests the assessment of CVNA is ‘overblown’, ‘dramatized’.

From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it doesn’t matter.

The tape itself will let us know, if or when there’s a change of character (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Daily

After-hours high, was 450.00

Just in the past four months, APP, HOOD, and now, CVNA have been included in the S&P.

At this point, we have the following:

APP is being investigated by the SEC.

CVNA, has ‘interesting’ numbers, currently being sued with class-action, questioning the core fundamentals.

Let’s not forget, several years ago, HOOD has its own class action resulting from their platform lockups.

Other ‘Fundamentals’

For those watching, the SOXX is at (or near) all-time highs.

We would expect Nvidia to be the leader (as it has done), but it’s lagging, still below its earnings release peak.

Looking at Amazon, proxy for the ‘consumer’, last year from October lows, to highs in December, Amazon posted a solid +29.3% gain.

This year, it’s completely different.

Amazon posted all-time highs that were quickly reversed.

From the lows of October 17th to Friday’s close AMZN is only up 8.77% and appears to be in a downward channel (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bank Bust Ahead?

October 18, 2025 By in Banking, Credit Destruction, Positions, Wyckoff, XLF, XLF-25-08, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , , 5 Comments

Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?

Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:

Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.

The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.

“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.

Wyckoff Had The Edge

The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.

The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.

Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:

“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”

The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.

Focus Amidst The Chaos

The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.

Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.

All of which brings us to the chart.

Financial Sector XLF, Daily

The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).

Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).

Expectations, Next Week

Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.

The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Delta’s at The Top

August 23, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-03, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Interest Rates, Positions, Prechter, Semiconductors, SOXX Tags: , , , , 4 Comments

Apex, Terminating Wedge

Was the Fed speech a turning point?

Remember, markets typically move in the opposite direction first after the Fed, then resume their main trend.

On Friday, markets were generally higher on interest rate hopes. It’s called ‘hope’, as the Fed’s not actually done anything.

Let’s word that more accurately. The bond market has not (yet) told the Fed to lower rates. When it does (if it does), they will follow and present their case as if they are leading the market.

Decades ago, Robert Prechter Jr., in a research paper, proved this point. More recently, Ed Dowd repeats the fact, link here (time stamp: 37:48).

Markets were higher, including the SOXX, covered here, and in this update, airline sector Delta (DAL).

Delta Airlines, DAL, Daily

If there’s any one chart showing why this site primarily works the short side, this is it.

The last major move was an impulse downward, taking less than three-months.

The corrective move against the trend, has so far been nearly five months in choppy overlapping action.

DAL, finished on Friday at the Fibonacci 78.6%, retrace level (not shown). Unless the market decides otherwise, we’re in a terminating wedge.

Currently short DAL, as DAL-25-03, with stop just above Friday’s high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Weekend Wait

Now, the worrying starts … we can almost write the mainstream media script for the next few days.

Why will the Fed need to lower rates? Is unemployment going to continue higher? What about all the mass layoffs? How will the consumer be affected … and on and on.

As a reminder, ‘alternate’ (real) unemployment numbers are here. We’re already at 25%, Depression era levels.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Tesla’s Plug, Pulled

June 10, 2025 By in Prechter, TSLA, ZeroHedge Tags: , ,

The Jolt, Is Gone

Last week, saw the largest ever, downward thrust energy for Tesla.

Price, whacked over -14%, in one day.

Then, ‘retail’ comes in to buy the dip (emphasis added):

Retail Investors Find A New And Extremely Dangerous Way To Chase TSLA, link here.

Pay no attention to the fact, on the fundamental side, EV sales are falling off a cliff, across the board:

US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets, link here.

Goldman Slashes Tesla Delivery Estimates On Weak Monthly Trends, link here.

All of which feeds into the (EV) supporting side of manufacturing:

Chinese-Owned Firm Halts Construction On Battery Plant In America’s EV Heartland, link here.

Then, on the environmental side, yet another EV fire:

New Footage Shows Abandoned Cargo Ship Laden With Chinese Cars Burning In Pacific, link here.

On the political side, it’s hard to gauge:

Musk Hit Bessent ‘Like A Rugby Player’ In White House Fight, Bannon Claims, link here.

‘Very Disrespectful’: Trump ‘Assumes’ Musk Relationship Is Over, link here.

The reason the politics are important, is because of the subsidies, link here.

On the price action side, we have the following:

Tesla TSLA, Daily

Pre-market trading (as of 8:56 a.m., EST) is around 315.15, slightly below the 50% retrace level shown.

Unfortunately (for them), the ‘retail’ investor, is telling us where the probabilities lay (not advice, not a recommendation).

Retail Woes

Before we feel sorry for ‘retail’, we’ve all been there at one point. Robert Prechter Jr., said it best when asked, ‘What advice, do you have for the average investor?’

His response was timeless: ‘Stop being the average investor’

What’s Next?

We’ve just had the largest downward force in the history of TSLA, a rebound fueled by apparent desperation, price action at or near the 50% retrace (from the 5/29, highs); the overall probabilities have become clear.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Bear Market = Wealth Transfer

April 14, 2025 By in 1987, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-09, LABD, LABD-25-06, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Uneducated Economist Tags: , , , 1 Comment

The ‘Extraction’ Process

Bear markets are not (always) prices going straight down, a la 1987.

Bear markets are ‘price destruction’; a series of ups and downs that effectively drain (whipsaw) the typical market account.

The last two weeks have seen record breaking extremes; the latest being this update, indicating the market posted the largest volume ever recorded.

Dodging Bullets

A case in point, this site’s narrow miss on having a huge gain (LABD-25-06, short biotech) being completely obliterated in last week’s largest short squeeze, ever.

It’s (almost) a ‘no-brainer’, this type of market behavior is not bullish (not advice, not a recommendation).

Then, The Propaganda

If it’s not dodging bullets, it’s sifting through the propaganda, half-truths, and outright lies.

The latest of these, (could be) ‘China dumping dollars’ and other ‘collapse’ narratives.

There’s volatility for sure. That’s what bear markets are about. However, this link might help mitigate the hysteria around the ‘It’s all blowing up’ narrative (not advice, not a recommendation).

In the above link, how it really works, time stamp: 17:58

So, here we are. What’s next?

Gold & Silver, Update

Even though both gold (GLD), and silver (SLV), are trading lower as of this post (12:52 p.m., EST), the Junior Miners GDXJ, posted a new daily high, thus, short JDST-25-09, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).

Today’s activity does point to a new potential (developing) set-up, this time, silver miners SILJ.

Silver Miners SILJ, Daily

The set-up (spring-to-up-thrust) may develop from here, or it could diffuse into chaos.

It remains a possibility, until price action itself says, ‘no’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia … Hanging by a Thread

February 2, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, David Weis, Livermore, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-04, SOXX, Wyckoff Tags: , , , ,

Below Support, and Slipping

Does one downside gap, beget another?

The gap-lower open Monday, January 27th, was only retraced by a Fibonacci 23.6%, the next day before continuing lower.

If that percentage holds, it’s a rare occurrence and represents extreme weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The chart for NVDA, shows we’ve had the largest down-thrust energy in history (NVDA began trading 1/22/99).

Now, it’s hanging below resistance (blue line).

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Last Friday closed lower; after-hours, lower, still.

Strategy, Tactics, Focus

As the ‘About‘ section says, techniques on this site are laid out by three masters and coached, mentored, by one of, if not the best in the industry (the late David Weis).

With that said, everyone has their own style.

Currently short the sector via SOXS, as SOXS-25-04 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners, Reversal Ready

February 1, 2025 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners Tags: , , , ,

Will The Breakout Hold?

As Ronald Reagan used to say:

‘Here we go again’.

The assessment of the mining sector has not changed in over four-years.

That is, it’s not a bull market (not advice, not a recommendation).

There are trading opportunities for sure but a sustained long-term bull market in the sector (GLD, is a different story), has not materialized.

So, here we are again.

Senior miners GDX, just broke above established resistance. Will it hold with GDX, moving higher?

Senior Miners, GDX, Daily

Except for the impulse launch higher in March and April of last year, upward movement has been choppy and overlapping.

This type of action is typically classified as ‘corrective’, moving against the main trend.

Since November, downside action has been ‘impulsive’, and upside action, ‘corrective’, shown as solid arrows, dashed arrows, respectively.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana … New, All-Time-Highs ?

January 30, 2025 By in CVNA, Hindenburg Tags: , , , ,

The ‘Measured Move’

According to this link, the wheels have already come off.

However, as we’ve seen time and again, ‘financials’ have nothing to do with prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s all about manipulation and what the manipulators are trying to achieve.

At this point, Carvana refuses to go lower. That’s a fact.

So, if it’s not going lower, just what is happening?

A better way to ask the question:

‘What’s it going to take to trap unsuspecting ‘investors’ and extract the largest amount of funds from them in the shortest possible time?

How about new all-time highs on an earnings release (not advice, not a recommendation).

Carvana CVNA, Weekly

The all-time-high for Carvana, is 376.83, posted during the week of August 13, 2021 (source TC2000).

Next earnings is on February 19, link here.

Let’s see what happens next

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Melt-Down … The Day After

January 28, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Loeb, NVDA, Semiconductors, South Sea Bubble, SOXS, SOXS-25-03, SOXX Tags: , , , ,

‘Real Opportunities Are Rare’ … Gerald M. Loeb

Now that one pillar of the A.I. mania has vaporized, ‘what’s next?’

To begin the search, let’s start with this headline from yesterday:

“No One Was Buying”: An Ominous Post-Mortem Of What Happened Today From Goldman’s Trading Desk, link here.

That may tell us all we need to know.

But of course, it can’t be that simple. We have to make it complicated with ‘experts’ piling on, pontificating about ‘earnings growth’, ‘multiples’ and the like.

However, did any of that play into identifying the SOXX reversal, almost to the day?

Short answer is, no.

So, why would it be a factor in determining the most likely (next) outcome?

With that, let’s take a look at the chart.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

It’s an aggressive viewpoint; that is, NVDA’s not going to fill the gap and is in the midst of a sustained down-move (not advice, not a recommendation).

If the A.I. bubble, potentially the largest bubble since the South Sea, imploded yesterday, the chart seems like a reasonable viewpoint (definitely not advice, not a recommendation).

Loeb & Focus

Few people talk about Gerald M. Loeb, late Vice Chairman for E.F. Hutton

He’s the one that said to ‘focus’ one’s efforts on the few and rare, real opportunities.

With that said, NVDA and the SOXX are moving now, while other market appears stagnant.

Therefore, the focus is on this sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Carvana’s ‘Break’ Test Dummy

January 16, 2025 By in CVNA, Great Depression 2.0 Tags: , , , ,

Time & Targets

Will it be like the old Ted Nugent song?

‘Kamikaze from the hundredth floor. Swan dive to the street.’

The last update wasn’t quite sure if we’d finished testing the trend break.

Now, with this morning’s session, there are more clues we may be getting closer (not advice, not a recommendation).

Looking back, this update had target(s) where price action could post before continuing the reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

It was thought we’d get a rebound off the trendline. Instead, it looks like a test of the break.

No matter ‘how’ price action got to the target(s), it’s at the target. 🙂

Carvana CVNA, Daily

As of this post (11:26 a.m., EST), CVNA high for the day is 232.80, in the prior target range of ‘227 – 233’.

Today, is Fibonacci Day 34 (+1) from the all-time high posted on November 25th, last year.

If there’s going to be a reversal, price and ‘time’ requirements have been met (not advice, not a recommendation).

Adding to that, this update with Carvana (Hindenburg) ‘fundamentals’ in place.

Along with yesterday’s update, rate of economic decline increasing, it’s probable we’re nearing some type of inflection point (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279