Monthly Archives: June 2024

The Moderna Reversal

June 19, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. John Campbell, Elliott Wave, IBB, Livermore, Loeb, MRNA, PFE, Prechter, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

When Price Action Heads South …

Said many times;

‘When price action heads south, bad news comes out.’

That’s a slightly different take on Prechter’s (Elliott Wave) observation.

‘Price action leads the news; not the other way around’.

Going to BigCharts, typing in MRNA, shows they still have no P/E.

So, the ‘bad news’, can’t be they’re not making any money because they’re not doing it, now. 🙂

I wonder, who can it be now?

For a clue to the (potential) answer, we can look at what’s happening to Pfizer, link here and here.

However, let’s not get ourselves wrapped around the axle on events, forecast years ago.

Rather, let’s go straight to the truth, the price action and see what it’s telling us.

Moderna MRNA, Weekly

The entire move from low to highs is shown. Included on the chart, are two Fibonacci indicators.

One is the standard ‘retrace’ indicator; the other, is a ‘projection’ indicator.

The ‘projection’ is based off the ‘a-b-c’ move from the lows of November 2nd, 2023, to the highs on May 24, 2024.

The retrace and projections are hard to see, so the ‘Detail‘, arrow is where we’re headed next on the daily.

Moderna MRNA, Daily

If there ever was a chart to once-and-for-all, refute, dismiss, trash, the whole ‘Fundamentals’ argument, that earnings, interest rates or some other ‘Voodoo economics’, moves prices, this is it:

MRNA, price action hit the 23.6% retrace level (exactly) for two days before moving on to hit the 161.8%, projection (exactly) before reversing.

Note the ‘100%‘ level as well; price action confirmed this area (exactly) three times! Once on the way up and two times on the way down (third time, not shown).

A century ago, Livermore said, ‘It’s all about the numbers’.

Strategy, First

Just as Livermore was primary a strategist, so is this site’s method of analyzing the markets, i.e., Strategy, Tactics, Focus, in that order (not advice, not a recommendation).

The news has been replete with reports like this one and this one.

Another panic ahead?

Sounds like it but at least in the case of Moderna, the chart itself says (effectively):

‘There’s no money in it’.

That means, another wave like we saw several years ago, is not the most likely future event (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

It’s ‘Week 89’, for NVDA

June 17, 2024 By in NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXX 1 Comment

Then, There’s The Lawsuit

Did we just hear ‘The Bell’, the top, for Nvidia?

The last update said to watch for Fibonacci correlation as NVDA, nears Week 89.

This week is that week; today, price action was gap-up higher, then reversal.

It could all amount to nothing with NVDA continuing higher at the next session.

Then, there’s the lawsuit; an old one, that’s been revived.

Is it important or is it an ‘Archduke Ferdinand‘ event?

Looking the daily chart, it’s clear, upward action is running out of steam.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

Missing from the chart is a new daily low to help confirm that we’re at least in a congestion or setting up for a significant reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we saw in yesterday’s update with bullet item No. 7, it’s all about the numbers.

Is Fibonacci ‘Week 89’, that number for NVDA?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Usual Suspects

June 16, 2024 By in Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Interest Rates, James Grant, The Speck, Usual Suspects, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Can It Get Any More Stupid?

It’s been a while since rounding up The Usual Suspects.

However, like last time, the stupidity, misdirection, misinformation, outright falsehoods, overall grift and schtick, has got to the point where an update is needed.

We’ll start off by repeating No. 1 from the prior ‘suspects’ as it encompasses the whole genre of ‘non-thought’ by the public and financial press alike; readers of this post excepted, of course. 🙂

No 1. There (still) is no Fed Pivot. Seriously, have rates really, actually been lowered? Everyone has a huge case of ‘normalcy bias’. i.e., what the Fed did last time will happen this time.

The 40-year bond bull market from the ’80s, ended in 2020. We’re in a different paradigm now.

We’ll add in this updated post, James Grant, of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.

He second’s the motion: The 40-year bond bull market, is over. Period.

No 2. It has always been about the food supply.

Food is boring and gets no ‘clicks’ on my grifting ‘silver, gold stacking’ website or YouTube, so I ignore it.

After all, my business, is to get more business.

Just a reminder, if anyone really wants (inedible) gold or silver (cheap), this might be a way to get it.

No 3. The market has ‘thinned out’ to an incredible degree.

Now, instead of The Mag 7, there are only three and one of them, is a washed-up gaming stock.

How apropos, when considering the opening paragraphs about the overall public and financial press.

No 4. Is Artificial Intelligence just another lie?

Looks like according to this, it can’t be trusted. Who could have guessed?

I’m shocked! Shocked!

No 5. Ruh-Roh Scooby, fake meat’s bad for your health.

Didn’t see that one coming.

No 6. Well, there could be a new ‘scarient‘ in the works.

However, looking at price action of the biotech sector, far below its all-time highs, the market itself, is saying ‘No, not this time.’

No 7. Could the S&P make it to 6,300?

After all, it’s all about the numbers, right?

The S&P bottomed at 666.67 on 3/9/09.

Summary

If there ever was a time as Wyckoff said, to ‘completely ignore the financial press’, this may be that time.

He also stated, ‘reading price action is hard, taking literally decades and many losses to master’, a skill which is never really complete.

As the ‘About‘ section states, this site is one leader’s perspective on that action; presenting it, in a strategically cognizant form.

As far as is known, no other site is doing the same.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Silver Top … Part VII

June 15, 2024 By in Gold & Silver, SD Buiilion, SLV

‘There’s … No Demand’

The tagline above, paraphrased from the Chief Operating Officer of SD Bullion (time stamp 5:47, link here), is telling us all we need to know.

Over two months ago, that ‘no demand’ potential was reached by reading price action of SLV, itself (not advice, not a recommendation).

Back then, posted here, was this (emphasis added):

“Just listening to what the market’s telling us, it says, when SLV, reaches a top and inflection point (to reverse lower), it tends to print heavy upside volume bar(s).”

With the caveat that ‘anything can happen’, let’s take a rational look at what SLV, price action is telling us now.

Silver SLV, Weekly

Based on prior action (circled areas), it’s not looking good for the bulls (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re at the spot where there needs to be outsized demand to get SLV, above what’s now well-established resistance.

If the COO of SD Bullion himself says ‘there’s no demand’, then where’s that ‘outsized’ breakout demand going to come from?

With this being the seventh update on the (potential) reversal in SLV, this series is complete.

As a parting shot, buried within the interview (link above) is the hint; dealers, just like everyone else are scrambling for cash; yes, ‘fiat cash’.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Adverse Moves’ … Action Plan

June 12, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-24-12, SOXS, SOXX, SPBIO, Uneducated Economist

What To Do When ‘Whacked’

The day started out with a bang; market’s up sharply on CPI print.

One could think, months of biotech (short) analysis, has been blown apart with this morning’s sharp move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Remember, this update said watch out for ‘French’ guys:

“However, just like the video snippet in the link above, what looks to be a dramatic conclusion to weeks if not months of work, could be completely derailed by a bunch of ‘French’ guys hanging out in a British castle.” 

Well, here they are. 🙂

From a trading, positioning perspective, is it really that bad, what’s going on?

For that answer, we’re going straight to the hourly chart of 3X Inverse Leveraged Fund LABD.

Biotech 3X Leveraged Inverse LABD, Hourly

Early morning price action penetrated the stop level given in this update.

However, as can be seen, price action behavior of LABD was different than (inverse fund) SOXS, under similar conditions; it did not keep going lower but stopped dead.

It’s clear, action at this point, is pulling away from the lows.

Rate Cuts Not

Way back in January of 2023, this site proposed the ‘rate cut’ discussion was nothing more than a ruse; keeping everybody (the press, especially) busy acting like Pavlov’s Dogs, while the big rug-pull was being set-up.

With that in mind, here’s the real story of what’s going on (not advice, not a recommendation).

Positioning

In a little bit of a market ‘cheat’, LABD is currently trading above the prior stop level.

At the risk of making a gross trading error, the short position in biotech (via LABD) is being maintained (not advice, definitely not a recommendation).

However, even as this post is being created (3:15 p.m., EST), biotech XBI continues to erode back into the trading range with LABD, continuing to rise.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … ‘Back-n-Test’

June 10, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, David Weis, LABD, LABD-24-12, Prechter, SPBIO, XBI

Watch The Volume

‘If, on the next pull-back, volume contracts, the spring has been tested …’; David Weis

On the chart, that’s what we have.

Today also looks to be an apparent 50%, retrace on Fibonacci Day 3, from the June 6th, reversal.

Taking it all together, the next session(s) could be very interesting.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted)

Is it textbook?

We have a spring set-up penetration (resistance non-inverted), a swift move upward and now, a test back to 50% (level not shown), on contracting volume.

If the test is complete, the obvious expectation is for a higher open (lower non-inverted) at the next session (not advice, not a recommendation)

Rule of Alternation

Using this update and the discussion of ‘alternation’, we can already see price action is more volatile and so far, has ‘simple’ form.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech ‘Put’ … +160%, Overnight

June 9, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, Dr. Elder, Heresy Financial, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-OPT-24-01 2 Comments

Details On The Trade

Options: A whole other level of risk/reward.

Buying an option, you have a ‘right’.

Selling (to open), you have an ‘obligation’.

There are plenty of horror stories selling options. A typical example, is this one.

However, when buying options (to open), as Dr. Elder has said, you have to jump through ‘three hoops at once‘; get it right on the stock, direction, and time.

He goes on to say, working the options market is counter intuitive. Traders naturally gravitate to long-dated, in-the-money options so the trade has time ‘work out’.

His method’s the opposite; short-dated, out-of-the-money.

So, what exactly does that look like?

The XBI, Short-Dated, Put

The situation on biotech, its reversal, first covered here, is a well-known topic on this site.

Using that information, especially this update and this one, probabilities were high for downside the next session.

With that, we have the following.

Biotech XBI, 1-minute

Time stamp on the entry from the broker states: 15:35:10, shown on the chart.

Time stamp on the exit is: 09:31:43, also shown.

Note: Entry was executed as the price of XBI was rising (for nine-minutes), with option value declining.

That rise does not look like much but we’re one day before expiration; option value is fluctuating significantly.

Perfection vs. Effectiveness

After the entry, we see later, there’s a 1-minute ‘blip’ higher before that blip was reversed.

Waiting for entry could have been better from a lower price standpoint.

That blip could have easily gone the other way, option value rising rapidly, low-risk (entry) opportunity gone.

Looking at the chart, one could say that ‘it’s not perfect’ and that’s true.

However, for being in the market just 29-trading minutes, gain of +160%, one could say, it was highly effective.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Nvidia (Split) Top

June 8, 2024 By in 1987, 1998, 2000 - 2001, 2007 - 2008, Artificial Intelligence, Federal Reserve, NVDA, SOXX 3 Comments

Top of The Tops?

Here … ‘Hold this bag’.

Having been through the crash of ’87, ’98, ’01, ’08, and now, the feeling is similar.

Each time the vehicle (stock) is different but also the same, at the same time.

In case anyone wants to review, here’s the definition of ‘bag holder‘.

Is Now, The Time?

Previous analysis and potential top identification for NVDA, has been premature.

With that in mind, presented below are two charts.

One has the Fibonacci count from the October ’22 lows; the other, shows a trading channel overlay.

The inference is, we’re close to some kind of ‘event’ whether it be sideways congestion or reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Nvidia NVDA, Weekly

It appears, since the October ’22 lows, NVDA is being influenced by a Fibonacci sequence.

The ”close’ chart has the same Fibonacci count as well as the current trading channel.

Next week is ‘Week 88’, stock-split (10 to 1), as well as the Fed meeting.

Week 88, is within the margin of error for a precise Fibonacci count, Week 89.

With NVDA, at the top of its trading range, one needs to be on the lookout for some type of Fed/Stock-Split ‘overshoot’ or other indicator of potential upside limit (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Case For ‘Swift’ Downside: XBI

June 6, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, Monty Python, Prechter, SPBIO, XBI 3 Comments

Rule Of Alternation

The last update presented a multi-timeframe analysis; medium to long-term (potential) bearish set-up in biotech, XBI.

This morning’s action appears to be confirming the up-thrust potential.

Now, we’ll get into why this move may happen quickly.

Multiple Timeframes

If the premise is correct, that we’ve gone through a month-long test of the weekly (timeframe) up-thrust, testing may now be complete.

Naturally, the power behind a weekly move, has more substantial effect than daily.

Next, the topic at hand; Prechter’s ‘Rule of alternation’.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The first chart shows detail on the last up-thrust.

Price action penetrated resistance, then posted five-days of congestion before breaking lower.

We’re labeling that congestion action as ‘complex’.

Next, we have the current situation. An apparent up-thrust in its initial stages.

If what we have now, is indeed an up-thrust, taking all the prior considerations into account, it’s reasonable to expect the subsequent move will be less complex, having different form, and move more quickly (not advice, not a recommendation).

In any case, we have a ‘hard stop’ for a short position, at the session high (not advice, not a recommendation).

Our Quest, Is At An End

Like something out of Monty Python, the entire analysis of downside potential feels like the quest is at an end.

However, just like the video snippet in the link above, what looks to be a dramatic conclusion to weeks if not months of work, could be completely derailed by a bunch of ‘French’ guys hanging out in a British castle 🙂

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

After The Close

June 5, 2024 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-24-12, SPBIO, Wyckoff, XBI 2 Comments

Biotech In Review

In this update, we’ll review the entire biotech (bearish) XBI, set-up.

First: Going way-back to March 10th, this year was this post.

There was potential for a long-term downside reversal in biotech, XBI.

Subsequent price action proved the analysis to be correct; biotech declined significantly, down over 18%, before recovering.

Second: The weekly timeframe Up-Thrust was properly identified as (in Wyckoff terms) there was ‘Sign-of-Supply’, with price action in decline.

Third: If, and it’s a big if, we’re in a long-term reversal, we’ve had the initial Sign-of-Supply that’s been followed by an apparent test.

That’s where we are now, as shown in the weekly chart.

Biotech XBI Weekly (inverted)

The chart is inverted so Sign-of-Supply becomes Sign-of-Demand.

Note the MACD is very close to a crossover.

Doing so, would put a serious dent in the ‘Spring, Demand and Test’ assessment.

Now, on to the Daily

Fourth: Buried within the weekly action, ‘Demand and Test’ (inverted chart) is the Daily, with its own set-up.

Biotech XBI, Daily (inverted).

With the weekly in a potential ‘test’, the daily has formed a spring set-up.

Potential for a bullish divergence, noted in the prior update.

Now, it’s here.

Obviously, the expectation is for price action to rise on the inverted chart(s); Downside for the actual XBI.

Fifth: Depending on what happens next, if we do get a reversal to the upside, inverted charts, there’s a potential for that action to be swift.

If and when that happens, we’ll cover it in another update.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279