The section at left, shows the bank (KRE) rebound from last Thursday’s sell-off, losing steam.
In the early part of this interview with Ed Dowd, he states the banks are ‘rolling over’ as a result of a ‘toxic brew’ of economic conditions (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s not really the morning after but being the day after Friday’s action, we’ll call it even.
Two shorts closed and three opened.
Both the XLF, and UBER, shorts were closed; one with profit, one not. Then, three more opened (not advice, not a recommendation).
As stated in the comments on this previous post, it’s possible the banking index KRE, is not going to make it to Fibonacci Day 34, this Wednesday.
Time counts are always secondary to price action.
Next up, is the silver market.
It’s a no-brainer that something’s ready to break. The press and YouTubers, et al., would have you believe that were finally ‘putting it to the man’. The ‘paper manipulation’ is over, so it goes.
Mabe that’s right this time around.
However, I’ll stick with the market-makers that have been in control since the buttonwood tree. 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
What if there’s not enough money in the coffers, for a bank bail-out?
Last week’s chaos is still in the ‘next shoe-to-drop’, stage:
Auto Loan Delinquencies Surge 50% As Cracks Deepen Across U.S. Credit Markets, link here.
The Bizarre Bankruptcy At The Heart Of This Week’s Regional Bank Meltdown, link here.
“This Is Crazy”: Goldman Stunned By Regional Bank Meltdown; Its Clients Demand Answers To These 3 Questions, link here.
Wyckoff Had The Edge
The market itself told us ahead of time, something’s up.
The top in XLF, identified here. On the heels of that, literally hours before the Dow melt-down, this post.
Note: The Dow post even suggested potential action:
“From a Wyckoff analysis standpoint, it’s all there; a push through resistance to all-time highs, a struggle, then new daily low and now today, a possible upside test.”
The Dow pushed higher in the first fifteen-minutes of trade and then collapsed.
Focus Amidst The Chaos
The analysis links above are a reminder; as the chaos increases, focus is to remain on price action itself.
Let the market tell us its (own) next probable direction.
All of which brings us to the chart.
Financial Sector XLF, Daily
The zoom area shows at least three contact points on a possible trendline (Wed, Thu, Fri).
Short position XLF-25-08, entered early on Thursday, and pyramided late on Friday (not advice, not a recommendation).
Expectations, Next Week
Obviously, the expectation is for continued downside. We’ll probably know late on Sunday, if that’s likely to happen.
The XLF is labeled as EXTO (extended trading hours) eligible. If there’s even a hint of (sustained) upside pressure, the exit may come as early as Sunday night (not advice, not a recommendation)
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Who knows what type of ‘weather’ we’ll have this time.
So, nat-gas can’t go any lower than where it is now, right?
Wrong
That type of thinking’s called a ‘Mind Trap’, link here.
David Weis would typically start mentoring sessions with a question (after presenting a chart):
“What do you see?”
Forgetting all the factors that ‘should’ drive the price of nat-gas higher, we have the chart.
Natural Gas ETF, UNG: Daily
The upper blue line is resistance which price action ‘up-thrusted’ (reversed).
The green line is a minor support area.
This is where a long position was initiated (UNG-25-01). The expectation for the next day (last Friday), was for an immediate increase it price.
That didn’t happen. The long position, the only ‘long’ for this year, was exited (not advice, not a recommendation).
The orange line is another support area but the lower blue line, if UNG gets there, is the ‘spring’ set-up target.
U.S & China Nat-Gas
Last Friday’s chaos with China and tariffs, begs the question if Chinese nat-gas shipments would be used as a tit-for-tat pawn; meaning, China halts all purchases.
The short answer is no.
For all of 2025, there’ve been no shipments, link here.
With that said, if nat-gas is going to move lower to the target area shown, then something else would be the driving mechanism.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 