Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Delta’s ‘Terminating’ Wedge

September 6, 2025 By in Airlines, DAL, DAL-25-04, Interest Rates, Positions, Semiconductors

Along With, ‘Throw-Over’

Once again, we’re at the edge of the (price action) lake where the risk of being wrong, is least.

Delta’s at the extreme, contacting the terminating wedge, then backing off, returning into the pattern.

As action progressed higher from April lows, the amount of thrust (Force-Index) continues to erode.

Delta DAL, Weekly

Now that (nearly) everyone’s got what they wanted, higher unemployment, so rates can be lowered, the show’s about to start.

The ‘hand-wringing’ has already begun, link here and here.

Two sectors typically hit hard during an economic downturn, are semiconductors and aviation (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Cisco Systems … Short Side

September 5, 2025 By in CSCO, CSCO-25-01, Positions, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX, Up-Thrust

Big Reversal?

It was a very busy Friday, hence the reason for the late update.

One short position closed (SOXS-25-10) and five more opened.

Cisco Systems was one of those five (not advice, not a recommendation).

Earnings for CSCO, were released in mid-august; market reaction was a swift move lower.

From the earnings, everything seems to be good.

However, at this juncture, that’s not what the market is saying (at least for now).

Cisco Systems CSCO, Daily

Note:

As a general rule (for my firm), on any initial position, the implied stop for that position is that day’s session high or low depending on long or short.

In the case above, that means a ‘buy-to-cover’ stop at the day’s high of CSCO 68.10 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Other (short) positions to be reviewed over the weekend.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Boradcom Blow-Off?

September 4, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, AVGO, NVDA, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX 5 Comments

Watch for Tomorrow

As of this post (6:41 p.m., EST), Broadcom (AVGO) is trading up about 11.50-pts at 317.6, after its earnings release, link here.

That level is just above the all-time (regular session) high of 317.35, posted on August 13th.

In the SOXX, Broadcom is No.2, market cap, right behind Nvidia. So, the SOXX, is up as well in the after-hours.

It’s interesting to note that sister-stock, Nvidia has not rallied in sympathy.

In fact, it’s trading slightly lower after-hours.

As the tagline says, we’ll be watching closely tomorrow.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

SOXX … Between A Rock

September 3, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXS-25-10, SOXX, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

… And The Hard Place

As the chart shows, the SOXX has been struggling for weeks in the resistance zone.

From that chart, one question to be asked, did the overnight and early session fill the gap?

The other question, did the Nvidia earnings release change the dynamic of the sector?

Reading price action since then, in real time, the answer seems to be yes (not advice, not a recommendation).

Semiconductors SOXX, Weekly

As of this post (10:35, a.m., EST), the SOXX is struggling to post higher … but it’s not happening.

There’s a lot of congestion around the resistance zone. In Wyckoff terms, he calls this price action ‘Cause’.

Meaning, that if we break materially lower from here, it’s called ‘Effect’.

His point being, since there’s sufficient cause for a sustained move, if/when it happens, we’re to expect a corresponding effect (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Junior Miners … Wedge

September 2, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-13, Positions

Throw-Over?

When looking at the chart of Junior Miners, GDXJ, it’s possible we could be in the midst of a massive terminating wedge ‘throw-over’ (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’re about an hour before the close; GDXJ, price action is beginning to retreat off its session highs.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly

Upward thrust (Force) is dissipating.

If action enters back into the wedge pattern, it’s typically viewed as a sell, or sell short signal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CORN … Contrary Indicator(s)

September 1, 2025 By in Corn, Food Supply, Genesis 41, Ox Talks, SOYB, Teucrium

The Press, is Always Last

If the financial press is reporting on a trend, it typically means, that trend is well established and possibly near the end of its move.

So, it could be with Corn and Soybeans as reported by Fortune link here and RawStory, link here.

Ignoring the not-so subliminal messaging (i.e. it’s Trump’s fault), both articles may be contrary indicators of a bottom or bottoming process.

From this site’s perspective, it’s been a long time since the last update on Teucrium tracking fund CORN, link here.

The update said to watch for a reversal and potential ‘test’.

However, it also said this:

“That amount of time below support seems a bit of a stretch for labeling it as a ‘spring’.”

The assessment was correct. The ‘spring’ setup failed, ultimately bringing us to now.

Teucrium Tracking Fund, CORN, Monthly

During August, CORN penetrated support, then reversed.

Volume for the month more than doubled, indicating increased demand at these levels (not advice, not a recommendation).

With commodities like corn, gold, silver, oil and others, literally anything can happen.

We could get negative prices.

With that said, let’s watch to see if there’s a test of what looks to be a nascent reversal; proceed with caution (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Sunday Night Futures

August 31, 2025 By in David Weis, Gold & Silver, NVDA, S&P, S&P 500, SPY

All Quiet, on Labor Day Weekend

Gold, silver, and the S&P are essentially unchanged (as of 6:44 p.m., EST).

Although it appears to be a quiet weekend, we should at least take note of the terminating wedge pattern in the S&P.

The S&P is probably the most computer controlled, most manipulated, most algorithmed (if that’s a word) market in the world.

From a personal standpoint, I do not trade it and have not for over 15-years.

There are better ways to engage and not volunteer oneself to get whacked every day by a mass of computer algorithms (not advice, not a recommendation).

With that said, we’ll look at it anyway. 🙂

S&P 500, SPY, Daily (segment)

We’re oscillating into a wedge pattern. A wedge typically occurs at the end of a move, whether it be up or down.

With the Nvidia earnings release out of the way, the tone of the overall market may have changed.

We’ll see if that’s true in the coming week.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Car Market Implosion

August 30, 2025 By in CVNA, CVNA-25-12, KMX, Livermore, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust

Hit on Both Sides

From a $100,000 Jeep Grand Wagoneer to no-bids on used cars at auction, the car market’s getting hit from both sides.

While Carvana rival CarMax, reached all-time highs long ago, now down -60.34%, for whatever reason, Carvana remains a ‘mystery’.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

The horizontal line is the prior all-time high (376.83), set way back on August 10th, of 2021.

Up-thrust close high, to test close high, Fibonacci 21-Days.

From August 20th low, to test print high (Friday), Fibonacci 8-Days, putting CVNA, at 61.8%, retrace (not shown).

Positioning

Friday’s new daily low was the signal to go short. However, that short was not entered immediately.

Instead, we wait. The objective is to minimize the risk as much as possible.

Late in the session, 3:57 p.m., EST, short opened at 371.6412, with stop at the session high (378.54), for total ‘risk’ of 6.90-pts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Famous ‘Reversal’

August 29, 2025 By in 1929, Biotech, Great Depression, Great Depression 2.0, Positions, SPBIO, XBI, XBI-25-03

Back in The Day

So, here we are nearly on the eve of the most significant reversal, ever:

September 3rd, 1929

That is, maybe, until now.

Today’s downside action may turn out to be just a blip; much ado about nothing.

Or it could be the harbinger of a top. Maybe the top (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech sector XBI, appears to be losing steam while at the same time, being in up-thrust (potential false breakout) condition.

As of this post (12:10 p.m., EST), XBI is down -0.63%, and has posted a new daily low. Short position XBI-25-03, remains active (not advice, not a recommendation).

We’ll discuss this index and others over the long weekend.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

VIX Compressed … Record Debt

August 28, 2025 By in NVDA, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Waiting for The Break

The question (always) is:

‘How long can this last?’

From a comment on this post, to this from ZeroHedge, now this from MarketWatch, it’s not too much of a stretch to say that things are … well, ‘stretched’.

Today is ‘Day 13’, from the last Nvidia all-time high; let’s look and see if we might get another all-time high.

Nvidia NVDA, Daily

We’re just a few minutes before the open.

We see the ‘spring’ set-up that’s been in effect over the past six trading days.

Will this spring lead to an up-thrust? Potentially the top?

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279