Author Archives: thedangerpoint

Carvana … Edge of The Abyss

March 19, 2025 By in CVNA, David Weis, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge Tags: , , , 1 Comment

There Is No Bounce …

Normal market behavior when penetrating well established support, is some kind of bounce … higher.

What happens, when that doesn’t happen?

What does it mean?

Well, one way to think about it, is this link.

Experts Say: ‘There Is No Recession’

Since 1980, This Has Signaled The Lows Are In: Link here.

Is It Safe to Get Back In? Link here

Corporate Insiders Scramble To Buy Their Own Stock As Buyback Blackout Period Begins. Link here.

Last but not least, my personal favorite 🙂

Recession Canceled: US Industrial Production Jumps To Record High. Link here.

David Weis 1980s

Back in the 1980s, the late David Weis was a bond trader.

He published a series of trading articles using Wyckoff analysis; in one of those, this comment stood out (paraphrasing):

‘We considered none of these things …’

That is, stay focused on what the market is saying about itself. Ignore the press and any other distractions.

With that, we have Carvana.

Carvana CVNA, Daily

What can be said?

After penetrating support, some kind of bounce is expected … except, so far, it’s not happening.

This post is coming out before the regular open.

CVNA is trading a couple points higher (pre-market) but nowhere near the nearest 189-ish, resistance area.

The Fed has yet to announce their shenanigans for the day; that itself, could cause a bounce higher … or not.

While the press chases after squirrels and gold, the market itself (CVNA) is saying, if it can’t retrace higher but pivots down, it indicates significant weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … Hang On To Your Shorts

March 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, LABD, LABD-25-03, Positions, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, XBI

Weaker And Weaker, Still

Look! … Squirrel!

While everyone else is focused on a ‘tradable bounce’ in the S&P, with others in a freak-out on gold, back at the ranch, biotech has continued to sub-divide lower, getting weaker and weaker, still.

Note: All trades presented on this site during 2024 (ex: UNG), and 2025, have been to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech XBI, Weekly

The chart highlights the Fibonacci retrace levels.

A Fibonacci 23.6%, retrace is rare; markets typically like to go to 38.2%, or 50%.

If this retrace holds, it indicates significant weakness in the sector (not advice, not a recommendation).

As can been seen in the side-bar, current biotech short is LABD-25-03, with stop at yesterday’s LABD, session low (not advice, not a recommendation).

Not shown on the chart, a trading channel that appears to be in-effect.

Update planned for that, later.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

CarMax Breakdown

March 17, 2025 By in KMX

Coming Back To Test

After two-and-a-half years, CarMax, finally breaks down out of its wedge.

Now, it looks like it’s coming back up to test resistance (not advice, not a recommendation).

As we’ll see, buried within the price action of that breakdown, is a Fibonacci time correlation.

CarMax KMX, Weekly

Two and a half years coiling in a wedge, then a breakdown, suggests whatever’s coming next may be a sustained move (not advice, not a recommendation).

Tests can pass or fail. In the markets, anything can happen.

The up-thrust spike was covered here and (the potential) ahead of time, here and here.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Sell The News?

March 16, 2025 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions, SILJ, SLV, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff

Hours Away

We’re just hours away from the Sunday futures open.

Yesterday, military attacks on Houthi rebels have commenced; links here, here, and here.

Middle East conflict escalates.

The question is, will the markets see it that way?

Will it be ‘escalation’, with gold futures ever higher, or is it ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’?

If we’re looking at potential gold/silver related downside, then let’s review the miners; they’ve been in a bear market for nearly five years (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Weekly Close

Before getting to the right side of the chart, let’s start with the ‘Time’s Up’, arrow; a reversal and decline over 50%.

That ‘arrow’ corresponds to this post.

At this point, gold and the miners appear to be stretched with silver currently in non-confirmation.

If it was really (simple) inflation, it would be like the 1980s, with both moving in tandem.

Then & Now

With that, what has GDXJ, done in the past?

The chart itself shows us it tends to exhibit a repeating pattern of Wyckoff ‘spring-to-up-thrust’.

We may know within hours if gold, silver, and the miners, are going to reverse or launch into some kind of extended rally (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Nvidia Target

March 15, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Ed Dowd, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, NVDA, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX

Then, The Fed

There are four more trading days left to compete the bar on the 8-Day, chart of Nvidia, below.

What are the chances it continues on higher into resistance?

If it does, it’s the 50% retrace of the entire move from highs on January 7th, to the lows of March 11th.

Then, The Fed

We have a Fed meeting this coming week, 18th and 19th.

Could any announcement be used as an ‘excuse’ to propel the market higher … straight into resistance?

Nvidia Fibonacci 8-Day

Who uses an 8-Day chart?

Not anybody I know 🙂

If Nvidia continues to rally, one would expect the SOXX, to move higher as well … potentially creating yet another short opportunity (not advice, not a recommendation).

Lastly, Ed Dowd

Here’s a link to a recent interview. At time stamp 37:48, he spills the beans on The Fed.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Meets Target Move

March 14, 2025 By in GLD, Gold & Silver

Breakout From Wedge

The weekly chart of gold (GLD) shows it has met a wedge breakout target.

The bottom end of the wedge is taken from the march 2020, panic lows, upward to the Sep – Nov 2022, lows.

What’s not shown, taking that trendline farther back in time, also intersects a congestion area from June – August 2019, thus providing additional validity.

Meeting a target does not mean reversal.

However, it does mean, speculators that were positioned long are likely taking profits or cashing out entirely; all the while, the media is ‘raising targets’ on its gold forecasts (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners … Breakout or Blowoff

March 13, 2025 By in GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, JDST-25-05, Positions

We Might Know Soon

The last update thought we’d have a gap-higher open in the miners GDXJ.

Well, we got more than that 🙂

The chart at this link shows the action for the corresponding gold contract.

Commodity bull moves typically end with a blow-off spike higher. Is that what we got today? (not advice, not a recommendation).

Full article is here.

With that let’s look at the miners.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Price action formed a ‘spring’ towards the end of last year.

Whether or not we have repeating pattern, ‘up-thrust’, is unknown.

It’s important to note, gold is now over (approx.) $1,100/oz., above the level it was when this post was released.

Even with today’s action, the Junior Miners are still (well) below the price level for GDXJ, shown in that update, four years ago.

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … Go Deep

March 12, 2025 By in GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST 1 Comment

Deeper, on Retrace

This update on the miners GDXJ, said we’re close to a bearish divergence if the ETF makes a new high.

This update also said to watch for a new daily high, finishing with this:

“Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).”

With today’s price action we could be ticks away from that anticipated new daily high (above the 2/20, 52.91).

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily

Note the typical (average) 50%, retrace between blue lines, that was then followed by a deeper 61.8% retrace, from blue to magenta lines.

The last deep retrace to 61.8%, tells us supply is building even though price continues higher.

Best case scenario: Next session opens gap-higher, clearing out stops (buy and sell), creating price action instability (not advice, not a recommendation),

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech … ‘Follow The Money’

March 11, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-02, Positions, SPBIO, XBI

Confirming The Channel … Down

Today’s action in biotech, best describes why it’s the only active short trade; detailed here (not advice, not a recommendation).

This update gave a hint at the expectation; the ‘spring’ set-up would fail.

It was a little bit early … but here we are.

Today (as of 11:29 a.m., EST), XBI posted a new daily low, threatening to post a new weekly low.

Biotech XBI, Daily

The potential channel includes a blue dashed centerline.

A failed move whether up or down, gets the attention of The Street.

Anything can happen, XBI could recover to the upside.

However, there are three successive trendline hits on the right channel line; probabilities for downside, are higher than for up (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Going Short … In Style

March 10, 2025 By in Dr. Elder, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Great Depression 2.0, ZeroHedge Tags: , , 1 Comment

Knowing When, To Be In Fashion

Out in the mainstream, they tell us the smart money (maybe, even retail) is selling, or selling short, here, here, here, here and here

There’s also recession talk, here; couple that with utter confusion, here.

Then, if we do have a ‘recession’ (or depression) it’s time to blame somebody, right?

As Dr. Elder said years ago (paraphrasing):

‘When there is a change the market, there’s a lot of turbulence before action settles into a definable trend.’

Taking everything in aggregate above, that could be where we are now.

In Style

Some of the links above, are still attempting to make a bullish argument.

For them, it’s not quite time to have a bearish stance. It’s not yet fashionable.

For this site however, every trade (453 of them) for last year, 2024 (ex. UNG), was to the short side (not advice, not a recommendation).

By the time, the bear has fully clawed the market (if or when), it’s most likely too late for any low-risk positioning.

One market that may be acting as a defensive move, are the miners, GDX, GDXJ.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

GDXJ, is either slipping away to the downside or it’s preparing for another attempt at higher prices.

At this point (1:12 p.m., EST), the support/axis line has not been decisively penetrated to the downside, suggesting probabilities are for higher prices (not advice, not a recommendation).

Before anyone gets overly bullish, let’s also keep in mind, the high print at the left of the chart in October of last year, is still below the print discussed in this post. over four years ago (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

Charts by StockCharts

Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279