Category Archives: Biotech

Biotech … Reversal to Wedge

November 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-17, Up-Thrust, XBI

The Bulls, Back Off

As the chart shows, we have a terminating wedge.

The prior update (here) proposed we’re in up-thrust (reversal) condition.

That set-up subsequently morphed into the wedge, shown.

Either way, we’re not far away.

Price action closed today, down 0.18-pts below the high of the last update, November 14th.

During the past two trading sessions, volume has been consecutively lower; suggesting the bulls are backing off (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

November 15, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, LABD, LABD-25-16, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, XBI 1 Comment

Bearish MACD

The chart shows biotech XBI, struggling at resistance (blue line).

At the same time, we have a bearish divergence on MACD.

Taking a look at the components of XBI, link here, seven of those in the top ten, have no P/E at all (not advice, not a recommendation).

What could go wrong?

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Big Short’ Burry, Closes Fund

November 14, 2025 By in Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, CVNA, LABD, LABD-25-16, NVDA, QTR Fringe Finance, Semiconductors, SOXX, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI

Signs of A (The) Top

Warren Buffett has a massive cash hoard; now, famous short-seller Michael Burry is calling it quits, links here, here and here.

The last time this type of news happened in a big way, was right around the Nasdaq peak in 2000 (not advice not a recommendation).

Back then, ‘old-timers’ with forty-years in the business, were throwing up their hands, throwing in the towel and retiring; the market ‘did not make sense anymore’.

NVDA, CVNA & Biotech

With Nvidia posting a new low today, the analysis shown here, is proving to be accurate thus far (not advice, not a recommendation)

Additionally, Carvana posted an up-thrust (reversal) as presented in this post (not advice, not a recommendation).

Next up, is biotech, XBI.

Biotech XBI, Hourly

We’re in up-thrust condition (potential reversal) have a ‘sign of supply’ and now testing the upside.

Note: The ‘test’ has exceeded the previous high. Although rare, it can happen.

So, is it a test or a continuation of an upside breakout?

The rest of the markets seem to be in a similar condition.

Carvana just posted a new daily high (as of 11:25 a.m., EST), possibly taking out the (early) shorts.

Let’s see if it manages to close above that 332.33, level discussed in this post (not advice, to a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miners, pre-market, Target

November 10, 2025 By in ABD-25-15, Banking, Biotech, GDX, GDXJ, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-15, Up-Thrust, XBI, XLF

Inflation Higher, Deflation Lower

As of 7:55 a.m., EST, Senior Miners GDX are trading in the area of the dashed magenta line.

The prior two updates (here and here) targeted this area as a potential location for retrace and reversal (not advice, not a recommendation).

Toggling between the two charts, shows price action is actually in the middle of the (prior) target areas.

Other Markets the Same

Several other markets are in the same (retrace, up-thrust) position; specifically, XLF and XBI.

We’ll cover those in another update, if price action warrants.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Biotech At The Edge

October 7, 2025 By in Biotech, BIS, BIS-25-01, IBB, Positions, Spring-to-Up-Thrust 1 Comment

Where The Risk Is Least

Biotech tracking fund IBB, has posted itself into an interesting position.

Last week, it launched higher over +7% and penetrated long established resistance; this week, it has essentially stopped dead.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

If what we have is the repeating pattern of ‘spring-to-up-thrust’, it’s happening on a massive scale.

For a short position, the broker being used indicates HTB (Hard To Borrow); there are potential fees associated with selling short.

With that said, the 2X leveraged Inverse fund is BIS. However, it too has problems. It’s not liquid; typically, 14K – 20K shares a day.

Nonetheless, short established via BIS (BIS-25-01) with stop at the week’s low of 11.95 (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Bubble’ & The ‘Beast’

September 26, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Artificial Intelligence, Biotech, BIS, IBB, Positions, Semiconductors, SOXS, SOXX, SOXX-25-14, SPBIO, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI 3 Comments

Downside For Both?

The ‘bubble’ is obvious, Artificial Intelligence.

The ‘beast’, not so much, but revealed below.

The last update, presented a case for the SOXX top, a proxy for A.I.

Note: If the SOXX, has made its final high, it’s still very early in the reversal:

Wyckoff said a century ago, ‘It’s as if the weight of a feather can move the market in either direction’.

That’s where we are now.

For biotech (IBB, XBI), different forces are at work.

Biotech IBB, Weekly

The 38.2%, retrace from 9/19 high, to 9/25 low, is in the vicinity of 140.90 (magenta dashed line).

Fridays are typically biased to the upside.

There’s a possibility IBB, may test (upward) throughout the session, heading to (at or near) 38%, by the end of the day (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Auto Lender’s Implosion

September 21, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, 2007 - 2008, ALLY, Biotech, CVNA, SPBIO, XBI

One of Many?

The last melt-down in 2008 – 2009, was precipitated by subprime mortgage.

This time, will it be auto loans?

Is this just one of many implosions to come?

Digging-in on auto finance, we have chief cook and bottle washer, Ally Financial. Old timers know this outfit as formerly GMAC.

Let’s not forget, Carvana (CVNA) and Ally are (potentially) joined at the hip, link here.

Moving on to the chart.

Ally Financial, ALLY, Weekly

This price action is eerily similar to biotech.

Note how long ALLY bounced around below support (in spring position) before finally moving to the upside.

Nearly a month ‘hugging the lows’, could be an underlying indication of weakness (not advice, not a recommendation).

The next earnings release is scheduled for October 17th.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Early Session: Biotech

September 19, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, LABD, LABD-25-12, Positions, SPBIO, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Up-Thrust, XBI

Repeating Pattern

The graphic at left, is a segment of biotech tracking ETF, XBI.

Note how it exhibits a repeating pattern of spring-to-up-thrust (S & U).

Today is also Fibonacci ‘Day 5’, from the ‘S’ labeled low.

As seen with gold GLD, slightly higher, not correcting immediately, anything can happen.

However, with XBI, we’re in a multi-year downtrend that may be finishing its countertrend move, ready to up-thrust and reverse lower (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Margin Debt … $1-Trillion

September 18, 2025 By in $SPSIBI, Biotech, DIA, IBB, IWM, IYR, LABD, LABD-25-11, Positions, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, SPBIO, SPY, Up-Thrust, Wyckoff, XBI, XLF, ZeroHedge

When it Implodes

Is the bell ringing?

Is this it?

In the pre-market, SPY, DIA, XLF, QQQs, all-time highs.

Meanwhile, beneath the surface, it’s getting a bit ‘uncomfortable’.

One Trillion in margin debt as reported here and here.

The Ones To Watch

While all eyes are focused on the leaders (above), at least three markets are not participating:

Real Estate, IYR, Russell IWM, biotech, IBB, and XBI.

From a Wyckoff perspective, for short candidates, these are the ones to watch (not advice, not a recommendation).

Biotech, XBI

As stated in the prior update, XBI may have formed a triple top within and ‘up-thrust’, link here.

The obvious areas to watch for today’s session, are yesterday’s high and low.

A new high puts the up-thrust into question; new low, adds (a small) confirmation to reversal.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Rate Cut … Now, What?

September 17, 2025 By in Biotech, Federal Reserve, Interest Rates, LABD, LABD-25-11, Michael Bordenaro, Positions, ShadowStats, SPBIO, XBI

Think, ‘Outside The Herd’

Michael Bordenaro, spells out the current jobs situation from a ‘boots on the ground’ perspective, link here.

From the video and comments, the agreement seems to be, unemployment is much higher than 5%.

Of course, if one is interested, more accurate job numbers (and inflation numbers) are at this link.

Separately, it appears that biotech XBI, has made a triple-top (not advice, not a recommendation).

More on that, later.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279