Category Archives: GDX

Kabuki ‘Debt Ceiling’, & Gold

May 24, 2023 By in David Weis, DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, JDST, SLV, Wyckoff 2 Comments

How To Trade ‘Kabuki’

You would think with all the handwringing, mental machinations, ‘debt ceiling’, we’re all going bankrupt, YouTube gold grifters et al, gold (GLD) would be in a monstrous rally.

Instead, we have what appears to be exhaustion and non-confirmation.

Gold (GCM23), is the only monetary metal (gold, palladium, platinum, silver) anywhere near its all-time highs.

Old-timers would call it a huge non-confirmation. The other metals are not on board with the ‘inflation’ narrative.

Time and again, we’re back to actually reading price action and having it tell us what’s real, not the mainstream.

So, trading ‘kabuki’ seems to be straightforward; just read the chart. Here’s one explanation from an unlikely source on why that simple task is so difficult: absolute, total, unrelenting focus.

Gold (GLD), Daily

When we look at gold (as of 12:05 p.m. EST), from a technical standpoint, it’s in Wyckoff spring position; a set-up to move higher.

The difference in this set-up as opposed to the one on November 3rd, of 2022 (not shown), price action’s ‘hugging the lows’ as David Weis used to call it.

We’re not springing higher.

The miners on the other hand (GDX, GDXJ) have already made their decision, moving decisively lower during this session (not advice, not a recommendation).

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

The chart below has two locations identified.

The first is this post identifying GDXJ, as a potential short opportunity.

The second is this post identifying the ‘test, reverse’ of the up-thrust with high probability of more downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

We can see the result.

Even though gold (GLD) had declined modestly with silver (SLV) more-so, the mining sector appears to be responding dramatically to the downside.

This ‘elevated metals, miners collapsing’ potential has been discussed previously.

Now, it appears that strategy is coming into play (not advice, not a recommendation).

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold At The ‘Wedge’

May 20, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, Genesis 41, GLD, JDST, Livermore, Michael Cowan, Neil McCoy-Ward, The Speck, Wyckoff 1 Comment

What Comes Next ?

Gold bulls could get cooked.

If gold does not go higher, it’s because of ‘manipulation’, right?

The typical YouTube gold grifter acts like manipulation is a new discovery.

It’s the ‘go-to’ excuse when their forecasts don’t work out.

Way back in the early 1900s, Wyckoff discovered the market has always been manipulated.

His insight was, it’s up to the speculator to figure out the objective of the manipulation and then act accordingly (not advice, not a recommendation).

Livermore knew about manipulation and even engaged in it himself. He looked at things in a slightly different way; meaning, what is, not, what should.

A very key difference.

So, let’s look at what is happening with gold (GLD), and where it may head from here.

Gold GLD, Weekly

First, the chart from the April 9th, update.

Now, the updated chart.

It took gold (GLD) several weeks to labor higher on ever shortened thrusts before finally exhausting itself and rolling over into a reversal … where we are now.

Is price action hesitating before heading higher or is this a significant downside move in the making?

It probably won’t be long before we have the answer.

Junior Mining Sector GDXJ, Weekly

The gold mining indices GDX, and GDXJ, have already made their decision, reversing to the downside.

Note: Each reversal from a gold peak in the Junior Sector GDXJ below, is at significantly lower levels. This is not gold miner ‘bull market‘ behavior (not advice, not a recommendation).

It’s clear, the Junior Miners are in a bear market …

The GDXJ, is completing or has completed what is an obvious bear flag or terminating wedge.

Unless price action shows us differently, this is the current assessment; lower prices ahead (not advice, not a recommendation).

Fundamentals

From a fundamental standpoint, where’s the demand for inedible (possibly fake) metal going to come from? The consumer’s already tapped-out and borrowing money just to buy the weekly groceries.

Maybe something else is going on.

Something else that’s causing precious metals miners to anticipate another huge (economic) move lower.

Possibly completely unrelated (in a way) to the mining sector … maybe yet another ‘Speck’ event, shown at time stamp 3:40, at this link.

At the same link, time stamp 5:25, we’re back to the food supply … yet again.

“And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn; because that the famine was so sore in all lands.”

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Miner’s Reversal … Still Early

May 16, 2023 By in DUST, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, SLV

A Long Way To Go

If this is the ‘big one’ that everyone’s talking about, the miners have a long way to go to the downside (not advice, not a recommendation).

When there’s a viable, bearish (or bullish) divergence, then price action has the potential to go much farther and the move last much longer than anyone would expect.

Junior Miners GDXJ (as well as GDX), have posted a bearish MACD divergence on the weekly time frame … very significant.

That divergence is shown below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Candle

Price action goes one way (i.e., up) while MACD goes the other … down.

Other posts have already covered details of the current set-up, now reversal, links here and here.

Not covered yet, is the apparent repeating trendline and potential trading channel.

That is shown on the daily close chart of GDXJ, below:

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily Close

At the minimum, on the right side of the chart we have a down trendline. An upside break of this line would negate any short positions … (not advice, not a recommendation).

The compressed chart of GDXJ (below), shows the potential.

As of this post (12:57 p.m., EST) GDXJ, continues to move decisively lower. Gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have reversed to the downside.

Gold’s reversal potential has been discussed previously here, and here.

No one expects a significant reversal in gold …. no one.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Hanging By A Thread … GDXJ

May 7, 2023 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Wyckoff 5 Comments

At The Next Open

If we’re at the downside pivot for gold and the miners, there’s only one right answer for the next market session.

That answer is:

Lower open, lower high, lower close.

Not advice, not a recommendation.

However, it is an assessment of where we are in the market cycle for gold and the miners.

The focus is on the Juniors GDXJ, as they are the weakest of both gold GLD, and the Seniors GDX.

If GDXJ, does not open lower, there’s something else happening; that would mean the downside reversal potential is in question and/or it could morph into more testing at the Axis Line, previously discussed.

Here’s a close-up of the sector.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Volume bar No. 1, corresponded with a solid up move for that session; shown as Price Bar No. 1.

Volume Bar No. 2, is where it gets interesting.

Specifically, higher volume, more narrow range (net distance) and a close well off the high.

Wyckoff called this: ‘effort vs. reward’.

Lots of effort (volume) with less reward (distance) than the previous move.

The next session confirmed that assessment by opening gap-down and then spending the entire day attempting to close higher … which did not happen.

That day (last Friday) may have been short covering. If so, we’re about to find out.

Junior Miners, GDXJ, Daily (forecast)

If we’re in a reversal (a big if), then we’ll get some variation of the price bar (black arrow) as shown (not advice, not a recommendation).

For the bearish option to remain intact, GDXJ needs to open lower and close lower for the day.

However, it does not need to post a new daily low, although that would help the case for more downside.

Anything other than what’s just described, would indicate a more complex price action environment.

If that happens, an update will be released.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold Miners … The Reversal

April 29, 2023 By in Derecho, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Jerimiah Babe, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 1 Comment

Each Peak Is Lower

Gold’s reversal or potential for reversal, has already been covered here, here and here.

We’re going to focus on the Junior Miners GDXJ but start first, with an updated chart of gold (GLD).

Gold GLD, Weekly Close

This is how it looked back on April 15th.

As of the close yesterday, we have this:

It’s arguable GLD, is now below the resistance line (completing the Spring-to-Up-Thrust) but that’s not the most important part from a trading standpoint.

When looking at the Junior Mining Index GDXJ, there’s an ominous pattern.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Weekly Close

Each extreme peak over the last three-years has been labeled; the Derecho of 2020, the so-called Ukraine ‘invasion’, and now, the banking crisis.

Note: The SVB bank failure was on March 10th. There was a ‘knee-jerk’ reaction by the public into gold and related components … that peak appears to have stalled at the location shown.

What’s going on is obvious; it’s a bear market.

Each major peak, lower than the last.

Now, the interesting part.

The Junior Miners are in Wycoff Up-Thrust condition.

In this case, price action’s solidly below the resistance line.

Looking at the daily (not shown), there may have been a ‘test’ of resistance this past week for a move higher; if so, it failed and GDXJ closed slightly lower.

Summary & Positioning

So, here we are: The market (SPY) has rallied over the past week, giving the illusion that all is well.

However, it too is now in up-thrust (reversal) position.

For my business accounts, it looks like being short the miners at this juncture is lower risk than being short biotech (not advice, not a recommendation).

Typical short vehicles that could be used (not a recommendation) are DUST and JDST.

As always, anything can happen. If the markets ‘implode’, they might be closed for any number of days or weeks.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

‘Panic’ Into Gold … Reversal Risk

April 15, 2023 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Spring-to-Up-Thrust, Wyckoff 3 Comments

Gold Bulls Exhausted

With Friday’s downside reversal we’re now between Euphoria and Anxiety for gold.

This past week was inundated with stories of panic at the bullion dealers.

YouTube ‘content creators’ were going berserk with hyper-inflationist rants; other ‘influencers’ telling us the dollar’s about to collapse; they say the Fed’s the only reason the dollar’s not at zero right now.

Then, rumors warning of gold to $5,000/oz. and higher.

The result as you would expect, is a highly emotional, manipulated public.

Different This Time?

At this point, whether or not the dollar will collapse is probably irrelevant.

Long time visitors to this site already know, battle lines (like here and here) are being drawn and it’s not in precious metals (not advice, not a recommendation).

As always, anything can happen and gold could go higher but with Friday’s reversal, probabilities have now shifted to the downside.

With that, we now have an ominous chart of gold below.

It shows the set-up to a repeating market characteristic:

Wyckoff ‘Spring to Up-Thrust’.

Gold (GLD) Weekly Close

Gold’s momentum wanes just as it’s pushing up through resistance.

Obviously, what happens next is the important part.

Strategy

Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, there’s a Fed speaker every single day. If we’re really at a significant reversal, next week’s likely to put the panic into unsustainable overdrive and mark the top.

For the bulls, we’re looking for the GLD, highs to be maintained. If it can’t hold, there’s reversal trouble ahead.

A Reversal?

If this is the ‘big one’ and gold reverses, a likely (medium-term) target is in the area of $1,300/oz., – $1,350/oz. (not advice, not a recommendation).

If that happens, gold’s still expensive but it’s the mining sector GDX, GDXJ, that would potentially be devastated.

Both the Seniors and Juniors are already printing an MACD bearish divergence (not yet confirmed) when looking at the weekly charts.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Oil … Gas … Gold & Newmont

January 21, 2023 By in Dow 30, GDX, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, Inflation, IYR, Michael Cowan, NEM, Oil & Gas, Prechter, QQQ, S&P, S&P 500, Speck-Effect, SPY, The Speck, Twitter, XOM, ZeroHedge 1 Comment

Markets, At Critical Juncture

Nemont Mining (NEM), Gold, and the Oil & Gas Sector are at a critical juncture.

The rest of the major indices, Dow, S&P, QQQs, real estate (IYR), and so on, are in a similar position.

For this update, we’ll focus on Newmont (NEM), as it’s the largest cap in the Senior Mining Sector GDX, and a general representative of the commodities markets.

Financial collapse is a process, not an event.

Newmont topped-out in April, of last year. Exxon, the proxy for the Oil & Gas sector, may have reached its highs this past November.

Where’s The Inflation?

As Michael Cowan has just reported, banks are absconding with depositor’s money under the guise of ‘bail-in’.

If the fiat cash is so worthless, why are banks seizing it?

As Robert Prechter Jr., said years ago, ‘all fiat cash ultimately goes to zero’; the end game (most likely) for the dollar. However, it could be months, years, or even a decade before that happens.

For right now, today, this minute, the data is showing us, the banks want the money; ‘Show me the money‘.

With that, let’s look at the non-existent ‘inflation’ in the mining sector.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

The first chart identifies the heavy volume and then test of wide price bars. This behavior is common in the markets; they tend to come back and test wide high-volume areas.

Next, we see there’s a terminating wedge developing as volume declines; the inference, is lack of significant commitment at these price levels.

We’ll get close-in on the wedge; last week printed a lower weekly low and closed lower for the week.

There’s no breakdown of the wedge … yet.

At this juncture, it’s up to the bulls to show they’re still in control.

Inflation vs. Scarcity

We have without a doubt, the effects of the event from the past three years gaining momentum. Whether or not those effects reach a peak this year, is unknown.

A lot of the mainstream and YouTuber’s alike talk about the upward move in gold as the result of ‘inflation’.

Here’s a little bit of insight you’ll not find anywhere else; how about gold rising because the above mentioned ‘effects‘ are causing production volumes to decline?

Maybe it’s because of scarcity (along with nearly everything else) that’s causing the increase in price.

Just to drive that idea home, the latest total gold production numbers, listed here.

Gold production for 2020 dropped -8.2%, from the year prior. Year 2021 was down -1%, from 2020.

From 2010 to 1019, gold production increased or was flat year over year … that is, until 2020.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

Gold … Repeating (Short) Set-Up

December 21, 2022 By in David Weis, GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, JDST, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

At The Extreme

Gold is at the extreme … again.

It’s also posting a repeating pattern; indicating a short set-up (not advice, not a recommendation).

As presented over a year ago, that set-up is defined as what’s called (in Wyckoff terms), a spring-to-up-thrust.

Meaning, price action has a repeating tendency to go from one trade set-up to another.

We’ll go to the daily chart.

Gold GLD, Daily

The Changing of Hands, is included because as of yet, that (downside) reversal has not been decisively negated.

There’s no downside capitulation volume; indicating we’re on the other side (bullish side) of the current downtrend.

Now gold is at The Danger Point®. The ephemeral place where risk is least; price action can (easily) go either way.

So The Question Is, Which Way?

Here’s one perspective that’s reasonably balanced.

The theory is all about Central Banks … ok, if it works.

From a personal (trading) standpoint, the fundamental approach was abandoned years, if not decades ago.

Moving closer-in on the daily, we have the following.

Price action is struggling at resistance (upper blue line).

As stated in a prior update, if GLD, can’t hold and move above this level, it’s an indicator of potential serious trouble to the downside.

Of course, it goes without saying, the miners, GDX, GDXJ, are at similar danger points.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

There’s No … ‘Santa Rally’

December 8, 2022 By in Excess Deaths, GDX, Gold & Silver, Gold Miners, NEM, The Epoch Times, Wyckoff, ZeroHedge

Forecasted Months Ago … Now, Playing Out

Let’s start with the post from way back in September, linked here.

Back then, it said (emphasis added):

“It’s going to be a very different place come December.

This won’t be like ’08 -’09, where all the stops are being pulled to ‘rescue’ the market.

No, this time really is different.

We can all see by now; the plan is controlled demolition.“

That was then. Fast forward to now.

ZeroHedge has come out with the obvious. If there’s going to be a Santa Rally, it needs to start soon.

Good luck with that.

Instead of looking for a rally, we’ve moved on from that (unlikely) potential to something different, linked here.

That link is not a forecast. It’s there to remind us, the potential for what can happen.

One group that just won’t let go of the (sustainable) rally scenario are the gold bugs.

Seems like with every ‘blip’ higher we have articles like this one, this one, and this one.

So, let’s take a look at a the largest cap in the mining sector, Newmont and see what the price action is telling us.

Newmont Mining NEM, Weekly

First, we have the un-marked chart and right off the bat, it does not look good; down -45.4%, from all-time highs.

It looks even worse, when the resistance zone is added.

So far, price action has already stalled and not been able to hold within the resistance zone.

It’s important to note, this resistance area is over two years wide. it’s not likely that anything’s going to happen to the upside without numerous attempts.

No ‘Clicks’, In A Gold Bear Market

If buying gold was the answer to getting through the financial, economic and societal collapse, then one would think the price would be moving relentlessly higher.

That’s not happening … not by a long shot.

What is happening, is this: Demand destruction on a colossal scale.

This destruction is on the birth side and the death side.

These events are affecting everything, going forward.

Nailing The Reversals

Using Wyckoff analysis, this site has been able to identify reversals in gold and the miners at times, to the day.

Important pivot points are here, here, here, and here,

Once again, at this juncture, we’re at a potential reversal in silver, gold, and the miners.

It’s about 15-minutes before the open. NEM is trading slightly higher by about 1.00%.

Let’s see what happens next.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279

The Day After

November 11, 2022 By in GDX, GDXJ, GLD, GOLD, JDST, JDST-22-05 1 Comment

Marginal New Highs

The day after the third largest short squeeze in market history, we have marginal new daily highs.

Gold was one of the markets that made news this week with it ‘leaving the station’. 🙂

Let’s take a look at gold (GLD) and how I used its message to position short (not advice, not a recommendation).

Gold (GLD) Daily

First, we’re going to re-print the original analysis below from November 4th.

And now, the result

We’re right at the edge. Any higher and it could be bona fide breakout.

The miners rallied in kind.

Senior Miners, GDX, is in an up-thrust of its own (not shown) along with the Juniors GDXJ; being a weaker sector it’s extended but not able to push as high as GDX.

Junior Miners GDXJ, Daily

Note the black line and arrow.

Seniors, GDX, was able to penetrate this area on its own chart but GDXJ, has not (so far).

This gives us an extra layer of resistance for a short position (not advice, not a recommendation).

We can add to that as noted, it was the third largest squeeze in history and today was slightly higher … so what else is there? Risk has (nearly) been squeezed out.

About an hour after the open, a short was opened using GDXJ leveraged inverse fund JDST; JDST-22-05.

Position details and stop locations are to be provided in the next update.

Stay Tuned

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Note:  Posts on this site are for education purposes only.  They provide one firm’s insight on the markets.  Not investment advice.  See additional disclaimer here.

The Danger Point®, trade mark: No. 6,505,279