We’re not there yet and anything can happen in the meantime.
However, Senior Miner’s GDX, price action has moved lower during this session as expected.
Today has offered up one more clue for the bears provided GDX closes lower.
That is, we may have a channel confirmation:
Fibonacci time sequences are not necessarily always at price extremes. As shown above, they can define the width of a trading channel as well.
If this short (sell) set-up fails (GDX moves higher), we now have a definitive stop area for inverse fund DUST (not advice, not a recommendation); somewhere around: DUST 19.80 – 20.00.
Steven Van Metre in his last update, gave data on how the dollar is in a rally and nearing breakout position.
So far, there’s still a negative correlation between the dollar, gold, and gold miners.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
It’s true when price action rebounds off a level, whether support or resistance, that level is confirmed.
However, personal (mental) bias, like the rabid hyperinflation ‘dollar destruction’ gold bulls, collectively have their minds so twisted, every bounce off so called support, is a buying opportunity.
That kind of blindness can set oneself up for (financial) disaster.
Well, we’re about to see if the current bounce was a buying opportunity or harbinger of a “free fall” breakdown.
Price action’s the final say. So, let’s take a look at what its been saying about the latest move.
Un-marked weekly chart of Senior Mining (ETF) Index GDX:
Next, comes the support line and contact points identified:
Now, comes the important part. Each rebound off support has less upward travel than before:
The right-most green arrow (upward travel), may or may not be complete. One fact in favor of completion is the significant amount of resistance around GDX, 33.00.
Price action has spent six weeks transacting in this area. Three weeks above support and now three weeks below.
Positioning:
We’re at the danger point; risk of being wrong on a short position is least (not advice, not a recommendation).
At this juncture, price action does not need to go far to either support or negate a short trade set-up.
With that in mind, the Project Stimulus account is short this sector via DUST (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
As Dr. Elder once said (paraphrasing): ‘There are many ways to make money in the markets … even more ways to lose it.’
The time required to master the basics like support, resistance, accumulation, distribution is up to the individual.
After that however, the experimentation starts: Fibonacci retrace, time sequences, technical forces, multiple time frames and on.
Experimenting with the chart of Senior Gold Miners GDX, shows at this time, a 3-Day chart reveals nuances not seen (so easily) in the daily or weekly.
We’re going to invert the chart to mimic the GDX inverse fund DUST (without the tracking errors) as shown below:
Then comes the mark-up:
All of a sudden, it becomes clear. Inverted GDX has been in a series of springs (up-thrust, non-inverted) and is now pivoting to the upside. That pivot is shown with the green arrows.
Each 3-Day period having a higher low than before.
As detailed in this prior update, GDX is potentially on the verge of ‘free fall’ (not advice, not a recommendation).
Pre-market trading has GDX, lower with DUST higher.
Stay Tuned
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
First, let’s start with the July 29th analysis of GDX. That update showed price action about to ‘Up-Thrust’ into a reversal.
The update even gave a possible high for the top of the developing set-up.
That high was in the area of GDX 35.65, near the 38% retrace level.
GDX topped-out at 35.82; then reversed.
The set-up chart is shown below and followed with the price action result:
And the result …
Pulling out to look at the weekly time frame, it’s clear, GDX is in a down-channel.
The magenta arrows show channel contact points:
Summary:
Gold and the miners are not showing hyperinflation at this juncture. It’s just not there.
Something else is going on.
As with the real estate index (IYR) not reversing as expected from collapsing retail purchasing (within established malls and elsewhere), gold and the miners are not moving decisively higher.
With real estate, It came out months later (after abandoning shorts on IYR) that Black Rock and others had been buying up whole sub-divisions … specifically from D.R. Horton.
With gold, it may be something else.
As proposed several times, the ‘controllers’ may make it irrelevant.
If you can’t get to the bullion dealer to either buy or sell, does it really matter if the metal’s in your possession?
This is a long-term game and this site’s in it for the long haul.
Each side making its chess moves. With that, it’s probably a good idea to review the standard plan of those on the other side.
Anecdote:
From a personal standpoint, as this post is being generated, there’s a Leghorn Rooster in a dog kennel cage (in my office) that’s been crowing for about two hours.
The same one (only much larger now) seen in this brief video.
Roosters are absolutely verboten in this neighborhood.
He started to crow decisively (collar or not) about a week ago; starting around 6:30 a.m.
He was not part of the plan. The five chicks were all presumed to be hens and his appearance was sort of an accident.
Several iterations later, which included sound-proofing the garage, he’s got his own set-up in my office.
It’s been about two and a half hours now and it looks like he’s done crowing. Soon, he’ll be off to check out the hens and be on with his day.
As a result of his arrival, we’ve changed our thinking: It may not be long before sentiment (to the food supply) changes instantly. It’s possible everyone at that time will be clamoring for their own livestock … crowing or not.
They’re no guarantees we’ll be able to keep him a secret (but God willing).
However, if he can be kept on the down low and then food supplies are cut off or severly curtailed, we’ll be more than happy to offer “Stud” services … for ‘small’ fee 🙂
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
“This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.”
A firm foundation has already been laid; a bearish case for gold (the miners and silver) that includes the inverse correlation of a bullish dollar.
Both moves are currently underway.
Steven Van Metre, followed-on; highlighting the bearish gold set-up in his ‘Sunday Night Charts‘ update.
As is typical, there’s a small cadre that can see what’s happening. They are somehow able to ignore the constant media hype; positioning accordingly.
The original weekly chart of GLD below, is followed by today’s update:
Updated chart:
Typical market behavior is to break through the trend (for however long) and then come back for an underside test.
It seems that anything related to the gold (silver) markets is an overcrowded trade. There are too many rabid bullish fanatics.
We’ll stand on the sidelines for this one (not advice, not a recommendation).
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
‘The real money’s going to be made, after the plug is pulled’
Well, that’s close.
Actually, the real money’s made on the way down … when the plug is pulled … not after.
‘After’, is when you take the huge gains from the short side and then allocate that to areas which stand to recover … or at least have a good chance of recovery.
It’s a two-step process:
Nobody demonstrated that better than Livermore himself during the panic of 1907.
It’s probably no surprise that panic was potentially a fabricated event (sound familiar?).
Titanic engineering design approval: July of 1908.
Construction begins: March 1909.
Sea trials: Early April, 1912
Titanic ‘sinks’: April 15, 1912.
April 15th, is tax day … coincidence … no.
Whether or not there really is a ship (or which one is) at the bottom of the Atlantic, is immaterial.
What’s important, was that it all may have been a controlled demolition of the financial system so that it cold be ‘reset’ to allow fractional reserve banking.
The fly in the ointment? Unexpectedly, Livermore owned the market at the bottom. He could have single handedly destroyed the financial system by executing more short selling.
That’s when J.P. Morgan (possibly chief cook and bottle washer for the ‘reset’) called him in to appeal to Livermore’s ‘patriotism’; to not destroy the market. You can’t make this stuff up.
So, it’s time to reset the system every hundred years or so.
Just like it’s time to have a medical ‘incident’ and reduce the population every hundred years or so:
How does this relate to the markets? For this update, the preamble above, brings us to gold (GLD):
Gold (GLD) Analysis:
It’s no secret, price action in GLD and the miners (GDX, GDXJ), has been analyzed for months as bearish.
The weekly chart shows GLD, right at the edge of a terminating wedge; about to break lower:
The measured move … to around GLD ~ 120, is exactly at the Fibonacci 161.8%, projection (not shown).
If there’s a wedge breakdown, we have two separate measurement techniques targeting the same area.
Gold (GLD) did break lower but has not progressed to the measured move. Latest update is here and here.
The next chess move, is probably not going to be dollar destruction.
No. The next move is likely to be as stated before, supply chain shut-down with the objective of ‘starve them out’.
Correct but not the way the media plays it.
They attempt to tie it to ‘climate change‘. Yes, the climate is changing but the earth is getting colder, not warmer. Crop failures are the result.
Couple that with intentional weather modification (weaponization), controlled demolition of the supply chain and voila! Food becomes scarce or more expensive or both.
In a prior update, when that statement was made, it may have sounded extreme. Now, we have this interview and time stamp (8:11), where we get the exact same thing.
Take Action:
This article, just out on ZeroHege is a good one-stop shop to start or continue being out in front of ‘events’.
Here’s a brief video of one man’s action, in action:
Four hens, a rooster, in an urban setting (houses on three sides).
The rooster was not part of the plan. If you look closely, you can see his ‘No Crow‘ collar … it works most of the time.
He was unexpected but is now seen as an asset.
He keeps the hens under control (otherwise, they fight) and gets them all back in the coop at night.
Is it a hassle: Yes.
Is it messy: Yes.
Will the neighbors not care about the crowing, be clamoring (and paying with cash, gold, silver) for eggs and chicks three months from now, if/when food shipments are cut off? Probably, yes
Mass recognition of potential famine to come in the spring when the farmers do not have enough ‘inputs’ (seed, fertilizer) for a viable crop.
Don’t forget about no spare parts for farm equipment.
Scaboo
The rooster, “Scaboo” was such a happy camper that he was crowing all day.
He was moved outside of town to a more rural location.
We still have access to him if needed for fertilized eggs.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
That update contains the quote below along with a link to an earlier report:
“The updates on the dollar have proposed, since the bullish divergence (now turned rally) is on a longer, weekly time frame, the ensuing move could have the potential to carry the index UUP, to the top of the trading range shown here.”
Since the June report, the dollar has rallied as expected.
At this juncture, it’s hovering just below support and in spring position … potentially building energy for another leg higher.
Today is Fibonacci Day 12, from the July 20th, high.
UUP could still post a new daily low at the next session (to get to Day 13) if the spring set-up is viable.
The dollar and gold are still inversely correlated.
If UUP rallies from here, expect a corresponding decline in gold and the gold miners.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
Price action spent about seven days in spring position before finally getting up enough energy to launch. The past two trading days have been essentially straight up.
Straight up that is, into known resistance.
This site’s not part of the hyperinflation crowd. It’s too easy to jump on the bandwagon, get the clicks and then say it’s all ‘manipulated’ when price action does not follow the narrative.
The (market) truth is and has been for a long time, gold and the miners are not yet confirming hyperinflation.
Buying gold/silver, gets more ‘clicks’ than buying food and showing everyone your freeze-dried plastic packs.
Since you have chosen to monitor this site, you have also made a choice to access information that’s not comfortable; information that may challenge (or even change) already held beliefs on how it’s all supposed to go down.
Case in point: With each passing day, it becomes more clear that food (Genesis 41) and the ability to create it, will come first as one storehouse of wealth.
Gold and silver will come … but only after nearly everyone has had it stripped from them (not advice, not a recommendation).
As of this post, GDX, is pushing through the resistance level shown in the chart.
How it behaves if/when it contacts the 38% level, will let us know if a downside reversal (up-thrust) is in the works.
Note: Posts on this site are for education purposes only. They provide one firm’s insight on the markets. Not investment advice. See additional disclaimer here.
The Danger Point® 